2013 Turnover Analysis – Updated Thru Indiana
Saved By The DBs: All this year Michigan has been plagued by giveaways (6 fumbles and 11 interceptions) and the defense has only 4 fumble recoveries. But, the defense has saved the day with 11 interception takeaways. Michigan has 1.6 interception takeaways per game this year as compared to just 0.5 per game in 2012, and 0.7 in 2011.
Keep Throwing The Damn Ball!: Knowing they would need to score points to beat Indiana, M opened up the offense with a record setting day passing the ball. But, with Indiana ranked #98 in defense rushing yards per attempt coming into the game, it was no surprise that Manball continued with a 63.5% run play percentage for the game and 61.28% for the year (ranked #17). Yards per rush for M is ranked #64. Michigan did open up on first down by passing the ball 36% of the time as opposed to passing just 22% on first downs previously.
MSU is ranked #1 in opponent rushing yards per attempt, #3 in opponent rushing play percentage (41.5%), and #1 in opponent rushing yards per game (at 59.8 YPG with the #2 team – Louisville – allowing 40% more YPG at 83.7). If Michigan is able to run the ball against MSU, I will be shocked!
With 63 points, Michigan improved to #8 in scoring offense but with 47 points allowed plummeted to #57 in scoring defense.
Synopsis: Thanks to the 2 fourth quarter interceptions by Gordon, Michigan's TOM for the game was 0.0 and for the year remains at – 2 (– 0.29 per game) which improved slightly to #81. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game. Prior to the two interceptions, Michigan had a disadvantage of 10.13 expected points and the score was just 49-47. The TOs had obviously kept Indiana in the game and they definitely had a chance to win. With those last two interceptions, M ended the game with a disadvantage of just 1.95 EP.
Gardner did not throw an interception but did fumble the snap from center on 2 yard line. Toussaint fumbled the pitch for his first lost fumble. 
Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. 
The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]
Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained. 
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.
October 21st, 2013 at 8:16 PM ^
Regarding Fitz' fumble:
I feel obligated to alert you to an important mistake you have all been making: you are mispronouncing Toussaint's name.
His name is "Toussaint" -- with an "i". The second syllable should be pronounced like the word for an unwelcome picnic insect, but more nasal, and with a silent "t". The word, when pronounced correctly, means "All Saints" -- an auspicous surname! (http://translation.babylon.com/french/to-english/toussaint/)
Instead, everyone has been pronouncing the name as if it were spelled "Toussant" where the second syllable sounds like Will Smith's mother's sister. Pronounced in that manner, the word would mean "coughing" (http://translation.babylon.com/french/to-english/toussant/), as in "coughing up the spheroid".
Pronounce it correctly or risk further turn-overs, I say!
October 21st, 2013 at 10:30 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 10:39 PM ^
October 22nd, 2013 at 12:13 PM ^
So is Toussaint "saying it wrong" too?
October 22nd, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
Honestly he probably is. Many of our original last names (mine included) have either evolved into being mis-pronounced over dozens of generations or got changed at Ellis Island or the like (or changed to protect family/not bring shame).
Making it sound all French is kind-of funny -- I think I'm going to stick my pinky out and pronounce it the way the OP told us to from now on. We'll see if it eliminates turnovers.
October 22nd, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
French -- yes. But Fitz' is probably a Creole French name. Pronounced like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOGVgQYX6SU#t=02m02s
You'll have more fun saying the name while envisioning jambalaya instead of crepes.
October 22nd, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^
"I, Fitzgerald Toussaint am half African American and Haitian. My mother is African American and my father is Haitian born and raised there.
https://sites.google.com/site/swc10004/home/fitzgerald-toussaint-s-essay
October 22nd, 2013 at 4:27 PM ^
Here is an even better recording of the French-Creole-Haitian pronunciation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOGVgQYX6SU#t=09m35s
October 23rd, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^
There is a general tendency among English-speakers (or at least Americans) to pronounce the French nasal "in" sound as "ahn" or "awn", even though that's not a great approximation. Everyone seemed to pronounce Moulin Rouge as "Moo-LAHN" when that movie came out awhile back.
October 23rd, 2013 at 11:50 AM ^
I had a friend in high school whose last name was Courtois, but told teachers it was pronounced "Curtis" to avoid the mangling that would have followed.
October 23rd, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^
It could have been worse... His name could have been "Gratiot"
October 23rd, 2013 at 1:33 PM ^
The funny thing is that everyone seems to know how to pronounce Benoit correctly, though.
October 22nd, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
How did a POST (i.e. written words -- not spoken words) result in a discussion on how something is pronounced??
I am trying to figure out if my faith in the audacity of the MGoBlog community has been restored or my sense of doom about humanity in general has been magnified.
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