[Patrick Barron]

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: It’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. Nick is also a Podcaster—if you haven’t listened to it before, his podcast Finding True Wealth, he recently did a very helpful episode on retirement funding priorities that covered different types of IRAs.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

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Nick's question:

So it's Big Ten Season, for a definition of that which includes annual games against Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers. Stock Up/Stock Down?

Our responses:

Seth: I'll start: Chase Winovich. Killin it AND has his own même.

pic.twitter.com/5SfMDsq2zL

— Noah Neidlinger (@candor_for_sale) September 16, 2018

BiSB: It's hard to be Stock Up from where Winovich started, but... I kinda agree.

Seth: It seems harder to run off his edge this year and they give him no edge help.

Brian: You're starting with a projected AA and saying he's stock up?

/giphy penalty flag

Well done giphy.

Seth: But... You agree.

Brian: I don't, this is what I expected from Chase Winovich. Including the meme. Dude is a meme machine. WILL HART is on this team people

Seth: Ol' Fifty.

David: Yes! YES! I was going to say Will Hart!

BiSB: Oh yeah, go ahead and put the jinx before the jump. Thanks, man. THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS.

[After THE JUMP: no, we can't.]

Brian: But anyway, Hart going from the guy who got beat out by the guy averaging 38 yards a kick to All Punts Are Bombs is quite a thing.

BiSB: But yes, Will Hart is averaging >50 yards per punt. However, that is on 8 punts. Sample sizes and whatnot.

Brian: True. Hart's issue last year was shanks and those could recur at any time. Still, like Nordin: if it's straight on the regular he's a golden god.

BiSB: But while we're on special teams, Ambry Thomas, kick returner is a pleasant surprise. Both because kick returns are surprisingly still a thing, and he is apparently quite good at them.

Brian: He is fast. Due to the huge variance of KO returns and de-emphasis they're putting on them these days Michigan will be lucky to get a big play or two out of him for the rest of the season.

Seth: It is very Big Ten to be going right to special teams. Also Jake Moody has been getting Foug-level field position with the anti-Foug rule in effect. Should we do a stock down?

The Mathlete: Michigan only had five 50+ yard punts last year, only 1 from Hart. He has 6 so far this season.

David: I Heart Hart.

Bryan Fuller

Brian: The #1 stock down is pretty obvious: MIKE DWUMFOUR. Why are you talking about stuff in the offseason if that's going to be the result of the stuff.

Brian: Dwumfour would seem fine if he was just another three-star redshirt sophomore who seems to be working out but needs another year or two to really get it together. Instead he's got the Mo Hurst but big chatter dogging him and Carlo Kemp took his job.

BiSB: Perhaps when the DT rotation gets a little healthier, they can deploy Dwumfour in a more pash rush-y manner. But as an every-snap player, it's hard to mesh the hype with the product.

David: Real Stock Up: Carlo Kemp, for that matter.

Seth: Competition caveats on that one but yeah Western Michigan has a decent interior line and Kemp had his way with them.

BiSB: Yep, Kemp has been the biggest Stock Up on the defensive side of the ball.

The Mathlete: He may be the only one with true stock up on this D, as high as expectations were

Brian: Yeah, folks barely said a word about Kemp in the offseason and Kemp came in as an immediate upgrade. I know this happens every year across college football (see Hart, Mike) but it's still weird to me that folks go "oh right he's the real starter" I couple games into the season.

Seth: I wish we had seen him against Notre Dame. That is a very different game if the quarterback can't step up every time Winovich gets around an OT at 6 yards.

Brian: His only charted moment in that game was a -1 where he didn't look too great so the jury is still out.

Patrick Barron

David: Josh Ross: starting to point up?

Seth: I sort of figured he and/or Gil would be about here.

Brian: Ross had a bad whiff against SMU but also had another couple of impressive "I am large and also fast" plays. Buuuuut I kind of think the WLB spot as a whole is stock neutral. It had a bunch of guys competing and was likely to toss up a winner.

Adam: Stock up: Brandon Watson. Second piece of evidence that suggests you’re pretty good if Zordich decides your nickname is your first initial and the first three letters of your last name.

David: He did flash some de-cleater potential

BiSB: Relatedly, am I the only one giving a grudging Stock Ever So Slightly Down to Lavert Hill? Is that nuts?

David: And Swatson has removed an NFL CB from the field with consistency, this season

Seth: I have convinced myself Hill is an injury since he missed practice for something.

Brian: I mean at this point we're really just complaining about a couple of plays against ND.

BiSB: Compared to the rapturous expectations, though, he has only been super-human and not god-like.

Brian: I suppose that's fair. BTW "Bwat" sounds like the noise a pew-pew laser makes once you upgrade it

BiSB: Also, we're trying to undo the Zordich Compliment Ziggy if we can.

Seth: I can't remember a player like Watson that I've roller coastered so much on. I jumped on his bandwagon when he was erasing the Borges receivers in some ancient spring game, jumped off when he was not athletic enough to play Viper, and now this guy is very draftable.

BiSB: I think if it's B-Wat, it sounds better.

Some movement among the DBs. [Barron]

Brian: I think the more serious stock down is Kinnel in coverage. Dude just had a rough rough rough game against Proche. Metellus had some issues as well but he's also made a bunch of plays. Kinnel was +0.5 for the year prior to this weekend and is going to be significantly negative after UFR this week.

David: Maybe its overall Safety Play that's Stock Down?

Seth: Other than THE VERY BAD THING THAT WASN'T REALLY HIS FAULT and THAT OTHER BAD THING WHICH WAS BUT WASN'T SO BAD IN CONTEXT, Brad Hawkins seems like a Guy trending to future Dude.

Brian: I don't have a BAWWWWW issue with Metellus. The targeting was just one of those things. The PF was bad. The rest of his season has been pretty dang good. So just Kinnel, and since he's turned down the missed tackles just in coverage. IMO.

David: The return was pretty awesome.

BiSB: Metellus has been materially less boring than Kinnel. In both directions.

Seth: The Metellus INT was the same twist that Hawkins biffed. The experience there is paying off. I thought he baited it a little by staying high over the slot.

Adam: Big part of the return was Aidan Hutchinson, whose stock is up from my perspective. I scouted him last year and saw a freaky athlete I thought was at least a year away from playing time. Clearly I was wrong.

Seth: In the same breath I think Kwity Paye is very up.

BiSB: This implies you doubted Don Brown. Though he did decapitate someone on Saturday in a way I was not expecting.

David: He did plant, though

BiSB:

This HUGE hit by #Michigan #Wolverines DE Kwity Paye (@kwitypaye_1) knocks the #SMU QB’s helmet off! pic.twitter.com/w4yVHsQLYx

— Sleeper Athletes (@SleeperAthletes) September 15, 2018

Seth: The thing about Paye is I figured he would be a weakside guy. He's now the Gary heir apparent. Reminder that Brown’s defense puts a lot on the anchor.

BiSB: He moves really well with the added weight.

Seth: Backup SMU quarterbacks do not agree.

Eric Upchurch

David: Can we Stock Up Shea Patterson?

BiSB: After the O'Korn Hype, you can definitely be Stock Up on Shea.

Brian: I don't know? I think he gets a steady. We know that Patterson torches people when they are bad and leave guys open downfield. The ND game was sort of an incomplete? Because of you know what.

Seth: I am definitely stock up on Patterson because I was throwing out early-season Rudock caveats up until football eve.

David: But some of those throws, man...

BiSB: But some of those guys are 15 yards downfield hauling ass to the sidelines, while Patterson is also hauling ass towards the sidelines.

David: Just On Fleek

BiSB: He's made some throws—of a bunch of different types—that have been eye-opening

Seth: Last Michigan quarterback who could usually hit an open receiver downfield? Henne?

David: No one since him.

Brian: Who said "just on fleek" and can i fire them?

David: MGoMonocast

Brian: Anyway i seem to remember a lot of Denard Robinson worst waldo bombs.

Seth: I don't remember many of those after his sophomore year.

Adam: Been long enough I still let out an audible, surprise-tinged “hmm” when it happens and we’re a quarter of the way through the season

BiSB: Patterson is completing 71% of his passes for 9.1 YPA and a 6/2 TD/INT ratio.

David: Yes, please.

Brian: This is true. It is also true he had 429 and 489 yards against South Alabama and UT Martin last year with a 9-1 TD-INT ratio

Seth: I have lost count of the terrible flashbacks that I get when Patterson completes something easy that his more recent predecessors did not. No I will not give examples.

Brian: Yes, he feels like a godsend but this is still in the realm of the expected and he should have thrown two awful picks in the first quarter Saturday.

Stock EVEN

EVENNNNNNN

Does not need much more discussion [Fuller]

Seth: Stock down: I figured we would see more of James Hudson by now.

David: To be fair...we haven't seen him play poorly

Brian: What's the stock down start point? From fall camp, yes. From the beginning of the season no. Backup remains backup, paves some Broncos. Eh.

Seth: Football Eve I guess.

Brian: Backups stay backups for too long. See last year's QB situation. It's not on the backup all the time.

Seth: After Notre Dame I don't think anybody wants to get to The Gaz with the current starters.

Brian: i'm kind of resigned to The Gaz being the last straw.

BiSB: And unlike PSU-as-O'Korn's-last-straw last year, Michigan can still get a win in Evanston with subpar RT play.

David: Just in time for the Badgers

Seth: They are still running the Let's Not Have Runyan Block offense. If you're going to do that why not play a freshman?

Brian: The stock down is really JON RUNYAN JR.

BiSB: They literally tried to make him taller via paperwork. That should have been a red flag.

Brian: -9 in protection against ND and avoiding the Q since. Even this person right here who gave the tackle situation a 1 didn't think that was what we'd be facing.

David: Yes, that was definitely disappointing

Seth: I just don't get the point of having him out there now unless the backups are seriously worse every day.

It's not doing him any favors to get singled out every play.

BiSB: Unless they're going to try to get a redshirt on Mayfield.

But, man, it's hard to see Michigan getting through an entire season like this.

Seth: It would be extremely un-Harbaugh to have his best left tackle only play against MSU, OSU, Wisconsin and Penn State.

David: They probably just haven't resigned themselves yet to the fact that the better option is True Freshman vs Nick Bosa

Seth: That or teach Runyan to hold since that's what most people do these days. It's not like NFL left tackles are growing on trees.

David: B/c he's going to get away with THAT in Columbus

Brian: Anyway let's move on

BiSB: Anyway, Stock Up for DPJ

Brian: My WR stock up is more NICO COLLINS

Seth: Unless we're talking as a punt returner because by golly.

Brian: Running by Julian Love like that is a thing.

BiSB: This is what we all kind of expected from DPJ, but 2017 put some doubt in some peoples' minds.

Seth: But yeah, Nico Collins had his first hype at the end of fall practice. When Black was already hurt IIRC.

David: We're seeing what we hoped they would be with good QB play

Brian: Yeah, I think DPJ has a crazy breakout season if you drop Patterson in last year.

David: As fun as it is to talk about the tackles, I say Stock Up for Truuuuuuuuuuuu. We can haz blitz pickups! I mean, Brian is asking for photos of a walk-on = you made it.

Brian: That I'll go along with. TRU WILSON hasn't seemed like a walk-on at a spot where walk-ons are usually painfully obvious.

Seth: Yeah this is right up there with "Shea Patterson hits an open deep receiver" in plays I used to take for granted and never shall again:

Shea Patterson makes this long throw look effortless. Play is made possible by a strong blitz pickup from the running back: pic.twitter.com/TkQvJSypo5

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 16, 2018

Brian: I feel like the ghosts of Mike Hart and Vincent Smith are looking on approvingly, Return of the Jedi-style

David: is it Stock Down for Samuels? Or did that cut/run in garbage time delay that?

Brian: Samuels was more stock down preseason when Wilson wasn't edging towards Kovacs Memorial status. There is a very obvious reason he's #3 and it's in that clip above. No shame in not being the pass pickup back in year two.

Seth: Vincent's ghost should teach Tru to throw a pass.