This Week's Obsession: Recalibration Comment Count

Seth

The question:

So, my dear Harbaugh doubters and Maryland player drafters, how have your expectations changed for this year?

------------------------------

The responses:

David: Starting last New Year's Day, I think I backed the idea that M was going to go 8-4 with a probable ceiling of 10-2. As M landed RuDock and Brian UFRed most of his 2014 games -and, admittedly, the Drake Harris hype train hit full steam ahead- I was getting confident in 9-3. Harris hasn't hit it big, yet, and RuDock is still coming along. But that defense looks, no, IS...really frickin' good, man. I thought they would be better than the past few years, but they could be the best M has had in quite a while. I wasn't too discouraged after Utah, but said to my buddy, as we walked away from the game, that I thought BYU would be the big measuring stick to tell us how we'd developed over the next month. I'm going to say that Michigan passed.

The rest of the league? Maybe not so much. Teams with good coaches grow and get better. And that could happen in a couple of places but not that many. Let's see some consistency out of the Penn State OL and Minnesota's offense. Brian mentioned that the Michigan State game looks a lot more tractable and I have to agree. It seems like it might finally be a more even game that its been over the last couple of years, obviously. With Michigan State's line of injuries over the past few weeks and some of their performances looking a tad spotty, despite playing lower level opponents, I am actually starting to like this matchup for Michigan. The Ohio State game? I feel better about it than I did a month ago, but if Ohio State executes to their highest ability, I'm not sure any other team in the country beats them. Obviously, that is a throw-out-the-records Game and just about anything can happen, but those are the types of things that are impossible to predict. If both teams play their best, I think Michigan still gets edged out. Ok, it's official. I have talked myself up to being confident in 9-3 and maybe even a little disappointed in not going 10-2*.

*obligatory mention barring major injuries to very key players: RuDock, G. Glasgow, Butt, Lewis, Peppers.

[after the jump: we jump but maybe not as high as Amara the American]

------------------------------

Adam: My expectations for the season have changed for the better. At the very least, I'm confident Michigan will beat the teams they're supposed to. That's such a major change from last season that that alone is enough to feel good about, but then when you dig into the stats from some of our rivals the past few weeks, and you look at the win projections from Football Study Hall...

image

I read that and my brain has a hard time processing it; the output is just HYPE HYPE HYPE. I don't really know what to do with that feeling, but I do know that it's really hard to think logically when that's what your brain's screaming that at you. I didn't tweet much on Saturday because I wasn't sure what to say with gallows humor out of the question; it felt a little like riding a bike with the training wheels removed for the first time. It was incredibly fun to- HYPE HYPE HYPE. Sorry, there it goes again. Anyway, it was really fun to watch a game and be disappointed when the opposition fumbled a snap because it meant Peppers didn't get a sack after coming clean off the edge. I was disappointed in a fumbled snap, and I'm watching Michigan. Incomprehensible.

It's more efficient to list position groups where my expectations haven't gone up than where they have: quarterback and linebackers. Rudock is starting to look about how I expected him to, and the linebackers have been a little disappointing as they've been edged and botched scrape exchanges and taken poor angles more times than I'd like. That's not a condemnation of the linebackers but more a byproduct of having really high expectations heading into the season. That my expectations have been exceeded everywhere else is enough to create a whole lotta HYPE.

------------------------------

21547593119_090e2d8829_k

[Eric Upchurch]

Ace: It's hard not to feel confident in this team after last weekend. There was the thrashing of BYU, of course, but there was also the Utah-Oregon game, which simultaneously recalibrated expectations for Michigan and Michigan State.

There are two reasons to think Michigan will do better than the 8-4 record most of us, myself included, predicted before the season. The first is the obvious improvement of the team itself. The blocking is getting better on a weekly basis. The depth and talent at the skill positions—and, in Harbaugh's offense, I'm including blocky/catchy types in that category—suddenly looks quite good. Jake Rudock is slowly but surely finding his footing. The defense will rip your face off. The coaches are adding new wrinkles on a weekly basis that actually make sense and build off previous gameplans in a way that confuses opponents, which is a wild new way to approach the whole endeavor.

The second is that the Big Ten is bad. Ohio State will be great by the time they roll into Ann Arbor, but Michigan State looks beatable, and every other game on the schedule seems like it should be a win. Northwestern's defense is good; their offense can barely move the ball. Minnesota might have to replace Mitch Leidner to spark their offense. Maryland and Rutgers are terrible. Indiana is Indiana. And does anybody believe Penn State can block this defensive line?

21743794941_8551a78cf0_k
Mo Hurst vs. Penn State. Think about that.
[Upchurch]

From both Michigan's perspective and a wider, Big Ten perspective, the season is shaping up for the Wolverines to get to nine wins even while absorbing an upset of sorts, and ten wins no longer seems like a huge stretch. I'd still guess Michigan finishes 9-3—there will be a game that reminds us this is a team with some holes in their first year under a new coach—but even that is an improvement over the expectations entering the season, and those rivalry games look a whole lot more interesting than they did this summer, too.

------------------------------

Seth: My operational wisdom for Michigan football since the very bad thing is expect the worst so you can appreciate the best. That setting has served me well; because of it, today I can wax poetic about a broken Henne and Hart beating Dantonio's first team, and Gardner almost beating Urban's second one. When you spend years giving money to Dave Brandon and the fourth most fun thing that could possibly happen is 67-65 over a Ron Zook outfit you have to go in with a certain mindset.

I've met plenty of Michigan fans who never changed their setting from Bo, more now that I sit next to an actual sports talk radio call-in phone for two hours every week. These people are better equipped for existence in a world where Durkin can recreate Florida's slasher flick defense without a buck, where Drevno can bash people with Ben Braden at guard, and where Michigan can woo one of the NFL's best football coaches back home for love, then be whipping ranked teams by game four.

At the beginning of the season I guessed 8-4, but when a gambling site asked me to choose between 7-5 and 9-3 I took the under "because the universe has to prove it doesn't hate me first." Also because going 5-1 against @Utah, BYU, @Maryland, @Minnesota, Northwestern and @Penn State seemed unlikely. Now Maryland's a disaster and other than a pick-six how exactly are the latter three going to score against Peppers and ten salty friends? Maybe Michigan won't break Indiana's 3rd quarter shutout streak; after 30 minutes I doubt we'll have to.

18646437169_c52b667e8d_o
Yes, Mr. Dantonio sir, of course you're the
#2 team in the country. Why, who said you're
not? Sir? [Rapai]

I wouldn't say Michigan can beat Michigan State—like a good comrade I burned all my DISRESPEKT fields during the retreat so the Spartans can't use 'em—but, completely hypothetically, if you asked me to make a case for how Michigan could beat one or the other State…

Still 8-4. Too many football things can happen, especially with all these road trips.

------------------------------

Brian: We're doomed. Northwestern has cut a swath of destruction from the West Coast to Muncie, Indiana, where there is no beer because Brady Hoke has resumed drinking it all. The Hoosiers are undefeated and nearly secured College Gameday for the first time ever. Penn State has only given up ten sacks in one game. Minnesota's tactical delay of game skills are unmatched. Maryland has the best punt returner in the country. Michigan State is almost outgaining directional MAC schools. Ohio State is doing things that are usually reserved for the East Carolinas of the world. Rutgers... we can probably beat Rutgers.

I'll be here all week! Which is more than you can say for any particular Rutgers player, coach, or administrator!

Obviously many things are on the table now for Michigan. The defense appears to be the kind of unit that can paper over big problems elsewhere. In retrospect they almost did against Utah, rampant Utah. Their main issue so far this season was containing Travis Wilson, a pretty mobile spread QB guy. There isn't a team on the schedule that looks like it will even be able to try to replicate his modest success until the Ohio State game. Can Michigan score 20 points against any particular team? Then they will win that game.

The only thing holding me back from big crazy projections is the fact that football is weird and combinatorial math always drags you down. I would be surprised if Michigan lost to any Big Ten team on the schedule other than MSU and OSU, and right now Michigan State looks like a coinflip. I guess to be reasonable I should account for that one game Michigan will play when they punch themselves in the face for 60 minutes. Still looks like 9-3 to me and I'd be more surprised with 8-4 than 10-2.

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 30th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

What the hell is wrong with all of you?!  The universe will will hear all this hope and anticipation, realize it hasn't kicked UM in the nuts recently, and intervene accordingly.  I PREDICT 4-8!  4-8 ALL THE WAY!  PLEASE DON'T HEAR OUR CRIES OF HOPE UNIVERSE.  WE AREN'T SAYING ANYTHING!

Everyone Murders

September 30th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^

I can't speak for you, of course, but if there's a win less inspiring than M00N, it's not coming to mind.

The Sugar Bowl win was a BCS bowl win against a decent opponent.  It made many of us think "gee, maybe Hoke is the right coach" - with us not recognizing the fool's gold that was the 2011 season and the 2012 Sugar Bowl.

Of course you may have been well ahead of the curve on recognizing that house o' cards!

dragonchild

September 30th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^

I'd rate The Horror II less inspiring than M00N.  Not that M00N was a good game by any means, but it was kind of entertaining in its own way.  The Horror II was just. . . it had no upside whatsoever.  Oh, we won.  Against a completely different App State team.  Yay.  I think I was mildly amused that Simms McElfresh was an awesome name for what turned out to be a pretty dang good baller.  That's about it.

But as for worst win EVAR, I pick Akron.  That game actually pissed me off.  Almost every aspect of Michigan's game was shit, to the point that I felt it was an insult to Akron, which arrived ready to play.  We almost lost that game.  We should've lost that game.  In fact winning was arguably a bad thing, because Akron exposed massive problems and if they won, maybe it would've brought down the house of cards faster and I recall actually saying so here (and getting a flood of neg-votes for daring to second-guess a Michigan win).  I mean hell, in his defense Hoke was visibly mad and yelled at the players after that game.  I don't think anyone was happy.

Rupertus

September 30th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^

Yeah, at the end of the Akron game I was hiding my phone so I couldn't throw it through a window, and getting ready to explain to my roommate why I broke his table. Fortunately neither came to pass. That win was so terrible that it caused me to invent this bit of tortured logic: "We may have had more points at the end of the game, but it doesn't mean we won."

bsand2053

September 30th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^

I see that I am in the minority here.  I certainly will not take any credit for being ahead of the curve at that point.  I liked Hoke as a person and thought he would do well enough at that point even if I was frustrated by some of the things he did and never understood why he was hired.

It also was a bit of a letdown from the high of playing pretty well and beating a team I care about (OSU) and then playing poorly and beating a team I don't really care about.  

Rupertus

September 30th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^

I take your point. Certainly we can't discount one of our only two BCS bowl wins. But if we could, that game would be it. The matchup was questioned as soon as it was announced (VT's presence much more so than ours) and the game itself was a horrible football game. I remember my own reaction being closer to "Wow, I can't believe we won that crap" than the joy of, say, the ND game that year.

Wolverine fan …

September 30th, 2015 at 2:21 PM ^

What a horrible, no good, fugly win that was. It was the week after the Akron "win", and marked the point in time that had me starting to wonder just what in the hell was going on. I figured ater the Akron game, they will wake up and play like they should. And you all know the rest.

They seem fully awake now, though.

dragonchild

September 30th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^

I guess this kind of football fan is common.

I was ecstatic.  I kind of felt bad for VT because they outplayed Michigan in several major ways.  This isn't to say Michigan didn't earn the win; they made the plays they needed to and had their share of terrible luck (Molk and RVB both played injured).  But it felt like if you did it over ten times, VT takes at least 80%.

Thing is, the players had been through so much.  The RichRod years were just terribly handled all around.  The defense had been an embarrassment.  2010 ended with three straight blowouts.  After the Sugar Bowl the players were in tears, and I could understand why.  It wasn't just a great season for them; it was cathartic.

But you know, I guess that doesn't matter to you.  Sorry it wasn't what you wanted.

bsand2053

September 30th, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^

"Doesn't matter to you" isn't exactly the same as. "not excited".  I see your point now but that is a bit of a leap and when you use terms like "this type of fan" it does feel like a loyalty test.  I stayed the whole way throught the Fandomm Endurance III game and had a blast cheering for the team, so it raises my hackles when someone implies I don't care about the players.  

To be clear, the players emotions after the bowl game did matter to me although not enough I guess.  I was way more happy for the players after the OSU and ND games.  Maybe its just that I care far more about The Game than the ALLSTATE Sugar Bowl brought to you by ALLSTATE against VT.  

B1G_Fan

September 30th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

I think anyone who still pulls for a Michigan team after the past decade has passed just about any loyalty test imaginable. The band wagon fans jumped to MSU and OSU years ago. The few things that I have taken from the past several years is 1. If Michigan, Texas, Florida and Notre Dame can fall, then any program can. 2. Enjoy your teams successes with humility. 

Blue_sophie

September 30th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^

We're favored by a very narrow margin against OSU.

Also note the projected cumulative win total in the right column. It projects a 9-win season because, just as we have a real chance to beat either MSU or OSU, we could pretty easily drop a bone-head game to Minnesota (like if Rudock throws a few picks).

What this chart doesn't account for is the fact that the target on our back will grow with each win. The "States" have clearly been farting around in their first few games—just like we did against UNLV and Oregon State. But by November, opposing coaches will be emptying out their bag of tricks when they play us, especially if we are a one-loss team.

 

dragonchild

September 30th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^

I totally understand the guarded pessimism.  It sounds gloomy but it's actually a path to happiness because your every reaction to good fortune is positive, not merely satisfying an expectation.  So yeah, Michigan sucks, they're all flukes so when they win next WOOOO.  Never mind it makes no logical sense; just go with it.

But as for "that game" that everyone's talking about, I think we already had it.  Utah's better than anyone thought they were, but I don't feel we were dominated.  The defense extended drives by busting some plays, Rudock and Perry weren't on the same page and overall the team's execution was at its worst.  The theme I felt was "growing pains".  Not to mention, the one thing we haven't seen so far is the coaches setting up the players for failure.  There is no 2011 Iowa or 2013 Michigan State or 2014 Minnesota.  Even when the players haven't done well, I feel the coaches consistently make very sound decisions.  So there won't be that.

WestSider

September 30th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^

Brian is spot on I think. Sparty looks vulnerable, OSU looks sloppy, but still winning. Getting past Northwestern means taking a breath and ramping it up to 10 for State. Man this is fun!

dragonchild

September 30th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^

I wouldn't take a breath so much as Northwestern will be the game that has zero predictive power.  I don't think the coaches will self-destruct and their ability to improve the team's consistency is amazing so it won't be for lack of competence, but if there's going to be a WEIRD game where scheme, talent, execution and even luck all get swept aside by the football gods dictating the outcome, it'll be Northwestern.  Not only has that been the case the last few seasons (luckily in UM's favor), they're playing way over expectation.  I don't know if they're legit, but they're certainly dangerous and they always seem to bring Loki with them when they play Michigan.

M-Dog

September 30th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^

What has caused my expectations to go up is not just what happened with BYU, but what happened with Utah in retrospect.

When it happened, I thought Utah was not a "good" loss, it was just a loss.  New coach, new or returning-from-injury key players, on the road out west, at night, on a Thursday.  We lost.  Shit happens.  Move on and get better, nothing to learn here.

But it turns out there was something to learn.  I thought at the time that Utah's offense looked very pedestrian.  Looks like we had something to do with that.  

What I learned is that we don't need 30 points to beat a team like BYU, nor do we need to do dumb risky things to try to get 30 points.  If our offense does not help you, you can't beat our defense.

All of this makes me cringe a little because it is the Lloyd / DeBord formula from the '90s:  Play safe on offense and kicking, and let the strength of your defense win you 17-10 games.  My soul is burned by the many time this has failed against a good opponent.  Hi USC!

In my heart of hearts I did not think you could play that way anymore in a world of Spread offenses.  Everybody scores 30 points in every game.  You have to keep up on offense.

But I can't ignore what I am seeing.  Our D combined with the teams on our schedule, resurrects the '90s for at least one more season.  It's gonna work Y'all.  Relentless D and Waggles to the TE all day, baby!

Tonight we're going to party like it's 1997.

 

funkywolve

September 30th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

I get what you're saying with that but UM's offense in the first half against BYU didn't look like a Lloyd/Debord offense.  Second half, maybe yeah but they were sitting on a 31 pt lead and I'm guessing didn't feel like showing any more of the playbook.

bstaub32

September 30th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^

According to Phil Steele we returned the most experience in the country. Who knew it would come together the way it did against BYU so soon, but the team seems to understand this is a marathon and not a sprint exactly the way an experienced team should. I think the Buckeyes will be coming to the Big House with a B1G title berth on the line, just the way the conference drew it up. Makes me feel like it's 2006 again, especially with how the defense is playing.

B1G title or bust...

Btown Wolverine

September 30th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^

I'd be pumped with a 9-3 season, even if that includes losses to both  MSU and OSU. I was predicting 7-5 before the season.

Plus, the games they've played so far have been much more satisfying than in the past. They beat the teams they should (convincingly) and they stayed close with the teams that they weren't expected to beat.

And then there's BYU...that's just 60 minutes of pure football euphoria. 

funkywolve

September 30th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

If any expectations have changed, I think the floor that most people had for this team has changed.  If the defense is as solid as we think most of the teams of the schedule (with the possible exception of MSU, OSU and IU) are going to have problems scoring unless they get help from special teams and UM's offense.

M-Dog

September 30th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^

Plus, the team looks solid and organized and deep.  There is no magic in this team, just relentless efficiency.  

2015 is the anti-2011 season.  There have been no lucky bounces, no magic moments.  Just a steadily advancing, unstoppable tide.

What makes 2015 look so different from the past 8 years is that it looks sustainable.  

We are not relying on any magic moments or highlight plays.  Smith's run and Darboh's catch were cool . . . but we did not have to have them.  We needed the Denard-to-Gallon Cloaking-Device play.

    

dragonchild

September 30th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

I agree with your core points.  But I'll quibble a bit; we've been relatively lucky.  None of the injuries we've had (so far) have been impossible to overcome, and one thing I noticed about the BYU game is that Michigan got a fair bit of help from the refs.  Of course, the takeaway is that Michigan didn't need the help.  Our drives weren't meaningfully extended by the penalties or no-calls.  And even if we lose a couple TDs with fair calling, BYU's offense was going nowhere.

The point is, we've had luck, but that luck hasn't defined the season or taken it out of perspective.  As you say, we haven't relied on it.

And as for sustainability, we're not dependent on luck there either. Harbaugh has built up cross-position depth by moving guys around.  When we eventually see a key injury (and it's a "when" because it's football), the team will be ready for it.

blueblue

September 30th, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^

Also:

a) Progress from week to week due to skill at coaching fundamentals, like the O line getting better at blocking, cornerbacks getting better an man coverage.

b) Learning from mistakes quickly. Not repeating them over and over because if the O line can't execute the play I drew up it's Funk's fault not mine.

c) Having a creative and flexible scheme, the ability to identify good ideas, and the wisdom to deploy them. Who can doubt that we'll see unexpected new ideas every week this season?

saveferris

September 30th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

I've had this exact same thought and the epiphany I've had is, "oh, THIS is what a well-coached team looks like".  A team that goes out and executes a game plan, adjusting along the way and just grinding a team down.  Watching this team play as compared to Hoke, Rodriguez, and even late-Carr makes realize that we've been eating hamburger and being told it was steak.  Harbaugh is serving steak, for real.