[Marc-Grégor Campredon]

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Nick’s Question:

[long gushing thread about Poole’s ceiling]

Nick: And Livers and Teske are still so young. And then the incoming class…

Seth: Yeah in two years this could be Beilein’s best team ever.

Nick: I don’t even know which of these guys to be the most excited about!

Seth: Is that your TWO question?

Nick: Sure.

Seth: Good because we’ve been talking about the same thing in slack all this time.

Ace: Just one? Top three? Top five? I have a hard time containing my enthusiasm with this bunch and the 2018 class.

Seth: Should we try to come up with a consensus rank?

Brian: Top three. Ordered by projected alpha dog on the 2019-2020 team.

Ace: I’m gonna drop this in from the discussion that led to this topic:

Alex: I mean the roster in two years could look like:

PG - Z, Brooks/DeJulius
SG - Poole, Nunez
SF - Iggy, Johns
PF - Livers, Johns
C - Teske, Castleton

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but that's a group that could do some big things, especially if Z continues to improve

This, of all things, is going to kill me.

Brian: First and second year players on this team and the incoming croots are eligible.

Seth: So Iggy has one spot.

Ace: Does he, though?

Brian: Alpha dog is defense and rebounding inclusive. Everyone has their own list.

Ace: I thought the same thing and then I looked over everything again and this is really damn hard. There’s a legitimate argument for everyone on Alex’s two-deep outside of Brooks and probably Nunez, and those guys aren’t exactly dead weight.

[Hit THE JUMP for very exciting gifs and stuff]

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(we did some of this in our general Slack thread so some of the photogs jumped in)

[Campredon]

Alex: Gotta say that Teske makes my top three. Even when he’s putting up zero points, he’s impacting the game in really substantial ways. The only true defensive anchor I can think of in the Beilein era is Jordan Morgan and Teske is like half a foot taller.

Seth: Can Beilein teach Teske to shoot threes?

Ace: He already can, just doesn’t do it in games.

Seent it with my own two eyes.

Marc-Gregor: He is actually very accurate during warm up . I realized that this week trying to get a Livers / Robinson interaction (Almost impossible ... Duncan being more and more single out by his partner.)

Brian: Elbow jumper is solid already. Not a huuuuge stretch.

Ace: Obviously different in a game setting but I think he’ll be able to can the open ones, which is all he’ll get. And he’s already a better passer than Wagner

Eric: Wagner made a few "WTF?!" passes [Tuesday] night.

Ace: That’s another thing with Livers. he’s a couple inches away from being a really good passer. has the vision but some of his actual throws have been a bit off the mark.

There was a Z three a couple games ago where he made a great play to swing the ball quickly but missed the shooting pocket and you could see Livers get upset with himself on the replay. Z made it anyway.

But it’s awesome to see a freshman get pissed for not giving a shooter the perfect catch-and-fire setup.

Eric: Yeah, stats aside, I really like Livers. He's gonna break a backboard.

Ace: That dunk was something. Could rise last year but that was a different level.

chin up level

Eric: The lob he caught in the Illinois game was up there too. The one in transition.

Alex: Teske will be shooting threes before he leaves.

Ace: Next year. Lotta recent B1G precedent for the skilled big slowly working in the three-pointer, too.

Alex: That little side action with the curl screen and the big popping to the wing is perfect for him. Not sure if he'll be able to handle the pick and pop as well as Wagner but few can and he's pretty mobile

Ace: Payne, Swanigan, Bryant…

Teske can move like those guys.

Alex: Sees the floor so well. I mean he's looking at it from a different angle than others but it's rare to have a 7 footer that can work in the middle of a 2-3 and zip passes all over the floor.

Teske moves better than Bryant for sure. Biggie and Payne are comparable.

He can’t really jump but he affects shots and holds up strong in the post. That’s the other thing too—he has offensive tools. still pretty raw and will probably never be a decent finisher at his size because of the whole “can’t jump” thing. There will be flashier players but Teske is a dude you can build a top ten defense around. pair that with a good Beilein offense and it’s a real good time.

Seth: I’ve got to reserve a spot for Livers on my list. That drive linked in Brian’s game column was awesome on its own but then you pair that with his defensive potential, and his shooting, and he already might be the best finisher at the rim at Michigan since Glenn Robinson.

Brian: uh Charles Matthews is literally on the team right now

Brian:

Seth: Amended to thunderous dunker.

Alex: Matthews makes some tough layups too. He could possibly be on the team in two years too.

Brian: Yes but he’s very close to a finished product and therefore ineligible.

Alex: Fair enough.

Ace: My list:

1. Jordan Poole. As a freshman who’s a year younger than most of his classmates, Poole is posting a 116 ORTG on big usage (25%) and an even bigger shot share (29%). He’s got shooting splits of 61/41/75. He’s pulling And1 moves to get layups and hitting Stauskas-like sidestep threes.

Poole is already a quality scorer, and his numbers are actually _improving_ in Big Ten play. He’s got vast potential on that end with his length, quick first step, pinpoint shot, and tight handle, especially as a high screen ballhandler in Beilein’s offense. He could be nearly as good as a defender, too. He’s got long arms, which he’s already using in disruptive fashion—his 3.2% steal rate is a hair below Zavier Simpson’s—and he possesses great later quickness. He’s already made a positive impact on defense despite often losing his place; he’s going to get better, fast. It doesn’t hurt that he plays an incredibly fun brand of basketball to watch, either.

The only problem with Poole’s meteoric rise will be that he’s on track for the Bench Mob Hall of Fame.

2. Iggy Brazdeikis. A 6’8” wing with a scorer’s mentality, handles, developing shot off the bounce, and strong feel for the game? And he’s a Canadian named Iggy? Sign me up.

3. Jon Teske. It pains me deeply to leave Isaiah Livers off this list, but the presence of 2018 power forward Brandon Johns—another tough cut—mitigates his Alpha Dog potential. Teske will be the unquestioned starter at center. He’s already shown he can be the anchor of a strong defense, and he should only get better on that end as he adds strength and technique. His rebounding potential is huge. He’s got a soft touch and the potential to extend that range out beyond the arc, which opens up tantalizing possibilities. A Beilein team capable of going five-out on offense while also fielding the best defensive team of his career, which I strongly believe this group will be, is so dangerous I almost don’t want to think about it.

Most difficult cuts in order because I’m a cheater and I love this team: Livers, Johns, Castleton, DeJulius, Simpson, Nunez, Brooks.

Alex: Upset of the century that Livers didn’t make your list, Ace.

Ace: It upset me, too.

Alex: I mean he’s never going to miss a three again, so...

Ace: I FEEL GUILTY ENOUGH ALREADY, ALEX.

Alex: He just does all the little things on the defensive end and on the offensive glass. There’s a reason why his on-off stats are so fantastic, and if the game has slowed down for him on offense (looks like it) - I mean, the sky’s the limit. He’s a better athlete than I expected too. If he hits a growth spurt, pro scouts will become veeeeery interested.

Ace: Shhhhhhhhhh.

Brian: What the hell Ace?

Ace: I told y’all I really like this team. Make no mistake: I’m still as over the moon about Livers as I have been. If not more so.

Alex: Who are you and what have you done with Ace? And why don’t you like Livers as much as he does?

Brian: I don’t think we can accept an Ace list without Livers on it. It’s like a 27 tickets without Dennis Norfleet by hook or by crook

Ace: I, just, there’s so much swag here:

And lest we forget, I was #FreeTeske from the start. And there’s a killer scorer from Mississauga. There’s so much to love.

Alex: Agreed, Poole has too much swag.

Ace: “No such thing.” — Jordan Poole

Alex: (for anyone over the age of like 27, that’s good)

Ace: (oof, man) (it’s cool, I’ve just been owned)

Alex: (sorry, just caught you with a stray, my b)

(corncob)

Ace: ANYWAY, I’m happy to write more about Livers, too.

Alex: I was gonna say that Livers and Poole were the others in my top three. I’m really high on Castleton, and Iggy/Johns are great prospects, but LiversPoole is a known quantity of sorts.

Ace already covered Poole well but he’s a bucket-getter and a fairly efficient one at that. Not hard to envision him becoming one of the best scorers in the Big Ten - tempo might deflate his PPG but he can really fill it up.

Ace: Specifically, I think we overlook his passing and overall feel for the game. This is advanced:

And he’s got great vision, which makes his ideal for ripping apart a zone:

He’s made a few really impressive skip passes this season.

Also, tremendous teammate:

Have I redeemed myself?

Alex: Well, you’re posting useful gifs so I know it really is Ace.

Seth: Poole is my third. For reasons stated above but gif man please gif that crossover pull-up he used that ultimately led to shooting three at the line. That was Stauskasian.

Ace:

Seth: /giphy Santana guitar solo

Brian: My list:

1. Poole. Yes, I’m also in the Poole camp. Ace mentions some reasons above; in addition to all that, Poole is Caris Levert. He’s young.

Caris was 2 months younger (August vs June birthday) and had a much more up and down first season. Mo is the only player on the current roster significantly young for his year, was also pretty up and down.

— Manuel Excel (@colintj) January 10, 2018

Beilein’s track record with young athletic guys he can develop is terrific, and Poole’s ahead of where Caris was as a freshman by a significant amount. He’s long like Caris, with arms that just keep going up and up. He’s already attacking closeouts pretty well and should get better at that as he adapts to the offense and knows where the open guys are. He’s an unassisted 3 shooter already. He is efficient with big usage already. His turnover rate is very low. He gets to the line and shoots well from it. He has good lateral quickness and should be a solid defender.

I’m a little concerned with Poole’s shot selection; he seems like a guy who will heat-check quite a bit. But I’m willing to trade that for a Not Just A Shooter who is explosive and creative.

2. Teske. I’m outraged that Ace picked Teske over Livers because if I’ve been mumbling about anything for the last ten years of Michigan basketball it’s “I don’t understand why they don’t get a 7’2” guy just for defense and rebounding.” They have done that. Teske’s development over the past year has been excellent and should continue since he is a big and bigs take time. I think he’s still got some athletic upside as he continues refining, and if he can just creep that block rate up a few points he’s going to be a force even if his usage is <20. It is no coincidence that this team is on track to be Beilein’s best rebounding team ever.

Also: he will be one of those Cs who pops up to can a three every once in a while as the opposition writhes in agony at this development. Fun!

3. Adrian Nunez. Yeah. This may be a tiny bit of a cheat just to add some variety to the answers that will be heavily Iggy/Livers/Johns focused in this spot... but I mean, you cannot throw a rock at an Adrian Nunez video without seeing him hit threes in every possible way.

Off the bounce, step back, curl screen, catch and shoot: whatever. He is going to be one of those Rip Hamilton From Three guys Purdue just threw at us, part of the new generation of players who grew up watching Steph Curry, think that a stepback three is a good shot, and are somehow correct. He’s 6’6” and has that rise that means he can get his shot off in nothing flat. I thought this was a really interesting comment from Beilein:

“These guys that have elevation on their jump shot, Jordan Poole has got a lot of elevation on their jump shot, that’s really a big part of basketball today,” Beilein said. “You used to be able to drive and kick and a guy could gather up. Unless you’re really tall, you’ve gotta be able to gather up and also rise because the guys aren’t leaving you alone. Duncan gives us floor spacing, he doesn’t have a rise on his jump shot. If people are on him, he has to pass it up. [Nunez] can rise over people and he’s got some other habits we like as well. Good athlete, too.”

He’s 6’6’ and can be both a deadly spacing threat and a late-clock bad-three-is-good player. I think his skillset translates 100%. Hopefully he can play D.

Ace: That’s a great Beilein quote and part of a larger theme: the young guys are a different level of athlete than the upperclassmen.

Poole may never be as good of a practice shooter as Robinson, though he’s threatening, but he’ll be a better in-game shooter—not to mention a superior all-around scorer—because he can get over closeouts.

Ace: So here’s where we’re at right now:

Seth: Iggy, Livers, Poole

Alex: Teske, Livers, Poole

Ace: Poole, Iggy, Teske

Brian: Poole, Teske, Nunez

Poole is unanimous, Teske makes 3/4, and Brazdeikis and Livers make two apiece. We should probably talk a couple of the other guys.

Brandon Johns is doing stuff like this:

I've seen @Brandon_Johns0 do a lot for East Lansing over the past 2+ seasons but I'd never seen him drop 51 like he did tonight. Impressive stuff from the future @umichbball player. @PrepHoopsMI pic.twitter.com/fqLwmNTcEn

— Jay Sarkar (@WLNSJaySarkar) December 20, 2017

He’s a true four with a decent outside shot, good handles, and a great frame and athleticism. For as much as I like Livers, Johns is ahead of where he was at this stage in his development. It’s going to be an absolute dogfight for minutes on the wing the next couple years.

Meanwhile, Colin Castleton is also putting up some big numbers. Scouts have talked him up as a skilled, Wagner-like center with “tremendous upside.”

In most years, he’d be one of the top two or three incoming guys we’d be most excited about. He’s a great fit for Beilein’s system.

Alex: Castleton might fly under the radar a bit but if he can put on good weight... man. a wagner type that’s one of the best shot-blockers in his class. Should say that while he’s skinny, he has pretty broad shoulders, which is important for a big man. (recruiting is creepy)

Ace: Yeah, the whole “plus shot blocking” aspect to his game is rather important. That’s a big, important departure from Wagner.

Alex: Colin “American Porzingis” Castleton

Ace: Our very own unicorn.

Alex: That they told him he can play like Wagner is telling; creating his own shot at that size is Porzingisesque. Obviously I don’t expect him to be as good as an NBA star, but a player in that archetype seems like a pretty great fit on both ends for Michigan.

Ace: He seems like one of those guys who a lot of people say near the end of the cycle is underrated and within a year of being on campus we’re all like “yep.”

“Oh, right, the seven-foot dude who can swat shots and drill threes is probably going to be good at basketball.”

Alex: He might look a little bit like that Haarms kid for Purdue. Who didn’t play great the other night but Castleton is actually a shooter and a little bit shorter. But on defense: skinny but ready to reject that weak shit at all times.

Ace: Yeah, it’ll probably take him a year or two to become a post banger, but he can still contribute right away.

Seth Before we leave we ought to at least recognize that this discussion was borne out of the relative position of David DeJulius after he made Tom Izzo sit through this:

...against his own PG commit. I really hope some mom in range politely pointed at DeJulius like "Is that your guy?"