three for three [Patrick Barron]

This Week's Obsession: Drafta--recap (and Hand-Wringing) Comment Count

Ace April 27th, 2020 at 2:51 PM

This Week's Obsession:

Ten Michigan players were drafted and everyone's angry about it. Where do you fall on the "everything is fine" vs "panic and run around screaming" continuum?

Ace: Should we explain why people are angry? I’ve stayed off the internet this weekend and had no idea this was a thing.

David: Yeah, I missed why everyone is angry, too.

Brian: There's a combination of things.

  1. Josh Uche went in the second round and Michigan took heat for his low snap counts
  2. Michigan had the same number of draft picks as OSU and got nuked for the second consecutive year
  3. Bleed-over recruiting anger because the first round was 24 four or five star players and M hasn't recruited a four star defender.

Seth: Without looking I'm going to guess the responses to today's hello post for a 3-star cornerback from one of the biggest schools in the country will tell you all you need to know about the current fan zeitgeist.

Brian: So this weekend was a resurgence of the fanbase schism. Fun! But also what else we gonna talk about.

Ace: Ah. So the draft bit I think is most worth pointing out in this context is that, despite Michigan getting ten players off the board, Shea Patterson very much wasn’t one of them.

David: That's a very big point...I don't even think he signed a FA deal, yet?

Ace: He has not.

Brian:

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Seth: Neither was Lavert Hill for whatever that's worth. This doesn't so much apply to Shea, but sometimes there's no accounting for NFL taste.

Ace: Hill got snatched up within hours (possibly minutes?) of the draft ending. Also: quarterback is a very important position.

David: Yeah, McKeon signed right after well...so, 12/13 guys had an NFL team by Saturday night.

Brian: Princeton's QB signed with Cleveland.

[Hit THE JUMP for, eventually, a rundown on where Michigan's players went in the draft, plus more of this.]

relative draft position is important [Barron]

Ace: So when we’re looking at the gap with Ohio State, there’s (1) the chasm in quarterback play, and (2) the similar chasm in draft position. Most of Michigan’s action was in the late rounds.

Brian: Relevant tweet:

Ace: It’s almost like Michigan’s recruiting spin isn’t meant to be taken at face value by fans. Or shouldn't be, at least.

David: Also...DTs the last couple years. Very different games since the time of Hurst/Glasgow, etc.

Brian: I think people are inclined to be mad because Michigan can't beat OSU and every little thing sets them off. But... I mean, FAIR ENOUGH RIGHT

Ace: I’m also upset about this, yeah.

Seth: Another Twitter thread noted that catching Ohio State and performing at Peak Michigan Since WWII are two very different targets.

Brian: I have that one as well, Seth.

Ace: Thanks, I hate it.

David: Wow, that's almost like recruiting rankings.

Brian: Since we've addressed #2, that segues into #3. Recruiting is a problem.

Seth: To me it is quite simple: kids want to go play in the playoffs and only a few teams can make it to the playoffs.

Brian: Maybe they'll recover but they picked up a five star QB super early and he has not had a pied piper effect at all. This comes on the heels of a year in which Michigan barely sniffed a top 100 prospect.

Ace: It’s equally concerning that they’re targeting some, uh, guys Ohio State wouldn’t look at. I hate to say they’re putting a ceiling on the program that falls well short of OSU’s, but…

Seth: The last guy Ohio State definitely looked at.

Ace: Woo, one guy.

Brian: So if you're looking at the draft as a confirmation that recruiting sites know what they're talking about it is an ominous signal.

Seth: It doesn't necessarily mean Michigan needs to get beat by 50 every year in The Game. They were an average John O'Korn performance away from an upset in 2017.

Ace: That also brings us back to point one. Michigan couldn’t fully utilize a second-round draft pick because they didn’t have enough talent at a critical position.

55.6% of snaps, #60 overall pick [Bryan Fuller]

Brian: Point one is the bit that the program defenders have the best ground to stand on.

Ace: Ehhhhhhhhhh

Brian: Michigan played BEN MASON at DT this year.

David: and Jess Speight!

Ace: It's all relative, I guess. That’s not a point in the program’s favor, in my opinion. But we’re looking at it from different angles.

Brian: Well, the specific tactical decisions that went into Uche's snap counts. Not having any DTs is a big problem, obviously.

Ace: Yeah, I understand why he didn’t play more. It’s also super frustrating that he couldn’t play more because there weren’t usable defensive tackles. Then we look at Michigan’s recent defensive tackle recruiting, which seems to be “hope this three-star SDE becomes a DT.” I have concerns.

Seth: So was not having a good interior OL in 2016 or a third QB in 2017. This is all too common about teams that cannot quite recruit at an elite level. Some positions are not going to work out and you're going to have holes and you need to have no holes to get to the playoffs, and playoffs to recruit the elites.

Brian: Michigan played all power runs to spill last year because 1) their DTs sucked, 2) they had two good run stopping DEs, and 3) they had fast LBs. You're either putting Uche at the LB level instead of two drafted LBs--meh upgrade on talent, horrible fit--or asking a 240 pound OLB to play to spill.

Ace: I’m not arguing with Uche’s usage last year! I’m saying the program failed by making that necessary.

Brian: I'm not arguing with you I'm arguing with the internet.

Ace: Fair.

David: Good luck, Brian.

Seth: And we are back to the only conversation you can have about Michigan right now, which is they can only be so good and they need to be better to satisfy anybody.

Brian: as i said what else are we gonna talk about

Other people are fighting about the Bad Boys/Bulls series from 30 years ago. Which is a good option!

Seth: We can project the 12 new NFL players and live vicariously through their pro careers?

Brian: To... NFL teams? Without looking it up I'm gonna guess one is on the Ravens.

David: 2.5 went to New England.

Brian: .5?

David: Asiasi

Brian: booooooooooo

David: Four offensive linemen got drafted! I think that's only ever happened once before?

Brian: Oh yeah I forgot that was #4. 4. 4 OL drafted, #77 run game.

David: Probably not because of the RBs (mostly).

undrafted, to our surprise [Eric Upchurch]

Ace: Cesar Ruiz, New Orleans (1st round, 24th overall)
Josh Uche, New England (2nd, 60th)
Ben Bredeson, Baltimore (4th, 143rd)
Khaleke Hudson, Washington (5th, 162nd)
Mike Danna, Kansas City (5th, 177th)
Mike Onwenu, New England (6th, 182nd)
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland (6th, 187th)
Jon Runyan, Green Bay (6th, 192nd)
Josh Metellus, Minnesota (6th, 205th)
Jordan Glasgow, Indianapolis (6th, 213th)
Lavert Hill, Kansas City (UDFA)
Sean McKeon, Dallas (UDFA)

Seth: So... Cesar Ruiz, 1st Round, Pick 24 to the Saints. A first round center. Hit.

David: Also, not a bad organization/offense in which to start your career.

Brian: Lavert Hill being a UDFA is the most baffling thing I can remember in Michigan draft history.

Seth: Ace pulled out 2nd Roundee Jonas Mouton in the podcast.

Ace: It’s hard when you’re that small and not an absolute killer athlete. Jourdan Lewis hasn’t quite torn it up for Dallas.

Brian: It wasn't 100% crazy to watch Mouton's excellent plays and project him to the NFL, and the context on defense made it look like he wasn't responsible for the fact he was in the wrong gap 50% of the time. Hill almost had more PBUs than downfield tackles in his career.

Ace: Hill also didn’t run at the combine. Unless he was hurt, I have no idea why he wouldn’t do that. He did the bench only. Bizarre. That raises some questions for NFL teams. And "is the short guy fast enough" is a really important question to answer.

Brian: Yeah, that is weird.

David: And yet...DPJ tests out of his mind and 6th round.

Brian: Al Davis never would have let that happen.

Ace: That felt like an overreaction to a lack of production that wasn’t entirely his fault. Bruce Feldman pegged that as Cleveland’s steal of the draft:

Browns: Donovan Peoples-Jones has first-round talent and ended up as a sixth-rounder. He wasn’t helped by shaky QB play in his career and also can be a weapon in the return game. He has a lot of upside.

Seth: Draft falls have a certain momentum after a time. Teams start to wonder why somebody wasn't picked and guess at reasons.

David: It was weird to see him go after Mike Danna.

Ace: This was also an incredibly deep year for receiver prospects.

David: That is also very true.

Seth: He might have more targets in Cleveland this year.

Ace: …I take it you haven’t looked at their roster in a while.

Seth: I haven't, actually. Are they all Browns still?

Ace: This is when I remember I’m the only full-timer here who watches pro sports.

Seth: I watch the NFL. Just very passively.

David: Thank you for the full-timer qualifier, Ace.

Ace: It was for you, man. Anyway, Glasgow also gets mentioned in that Feldman article as a potential Pro Bowl special teams player, which… yeah.

Seth: Don Dufek 2.0.

Ace: Timely.

David: Or Matthew Slater.

Ace: Better.

Brian: yes now I can spike the ball:

Plus blitzer, excellent sideline to sideline, reliable tackler. Draftable? Not crazy, right?

David: What is he in the NFL, though?

Ace: Glasgow is a special teamer first and a hybrid-ish weakside linebacker second, in my opinion. You can draft for that in the sixth round. He’s a good guy to have on the back end of the roster. For the same reason, Khaleke Hudson could carve out a role early in Washington.

Seth: People should learn what a Dufek is. Imagine in 30 years when Michigan fans think a Glasgow is a city in IreScotlandia. Don Dufek is an NFL archetype. He was a great special teamer who could play safety or linebacker, and was always the last guy to make the Seahawks roster. This happened for 10 years. Khaleke is also a Dufek.

Brian: <fin>

Comments

charblue.

April 27th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^

I remember a game broadcast last fall, when an analyst was talking about Glasgow and how the Lions ST coach thought he was one of those guys you steal in the final round of the draft and he winds up as a mainstay on your roster.

So that's exactly what I expected. First, of all, he comes from a classic football background and family of over-achieving guys without the usual pro physical attributes, size or speed. Glasgow just makes plays and is easy to root for.

The Panthers drafted 7 defensive players after giving up 29 points a game last year, and allowing 31 rushing touchdowns while having $48 million currently tied up in salary cap money on players no longer on the team. Seven. It still won't be enough.

The Patriots drafted a safety in the second round from Division II  Lenoir-Rhyne University in Hickory, NC, a school with an undergrad enrollment in 2017-2018 less than 2,000.

Players can come from anywhere and the NFL will find you. Doesn't mean they make the right choices or that their the smartest talent evaluators, either. If you're a Lions or Browns fan you know this implicitly.

 

TrueBlue2003

April 27th, 2020 at 5:47 PM ^

I swear Michigan has the worst luck ever with 5 stars.  When is the last time they had a 5 star come close to meeting expectations?

Gary was good, but a borderline all-conference guy that was never highly productive is far worse than you'd expect from the top player in the country.

DPJ was even more disappointing.

Soloman transferred.

Peppers is probably the only one this decade that wasn't a genuine disappointment.

Derrick Green: woof.

Hopefully Hill and Hinton come through.

Away Goal

April 27th, 2020 at 7:58 PM ^

Even with Peppers, one of my all-time favorites, he really only played 2 seasons, never beat OSU, and never even played in a bowl game.  

I think the expectations that come with a 5* recruit can be difficult to live up to, but we do seem to have a lot of misses with our higher-ranked guys, for various reasons.

Denard In Space

April 27th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^

Regarding our players getting into the draft at lower positions, I do think it's also important to look at performance after the draft. Drafting in any sports league is an unreliable endeavor, so just "Getting in" isn't as telling about a player's quality than what they make of themselves in the league. I think OSU has a far greater stamp on the NFL with its current output than does Michigan.

So I think we are underdogs to OSU currently. Although I agree that we have to bring in an overall higher level of talent to compete as equals, I wonder more and more about what Lorenz alleged was a great disorganization in recruiting. If we were able to recruit with a more sound strategy, I think we'd have more positional balance and wouldn't have those gaps that were discussed. For example, we could try to recruit *some* players that actually play defensive tackle in high school. If we had a more internally-coordinated recruiting approach, I think it's more likely that we at least don't have classes with weird position gaps. Without the roster imbalance, I think you get fewer position switches that waste entire years of players' eligibility (Bench Mason), and you have more of a chance of playing consistent football. Doing so gives us a better chance of upsetting OSU and turning the tide. 

Many folks seem to think that the only path to winning is to just become the same as OSU; I think it would be cooler if we built a more organic approach, progressively building to a point of equal footing with OSU. I like the idea of doing it with an alum like Jim Harbaugh, but it's unclear to me if he's the organizational leader we need for this hoped-for outcome to be realistic. I harp on this a lot, but I will never understand letting a graduate assistant coach a historic class of wide receivers that has now fizzled out. 

It has to start with someone, though. I think JJ Mccarthy genuinely hates OSU for the shenanigans they pulled with his recruitment, and wants to beat them into the ground for revenge. Can't hurt to have a charismatic 5-star with a chip on his shoulder to lead us. Hopefully he's the catalyst.  

MLD Woody

April 27th, 2020 at 5:19 PM ^

I'm not saying DPJ couldn't have produced more, better QB play, coaching, blah blah blah, but this truly was a hell of a class for WR's. Look at the Buckeye's draft-eligible WR's

(ranking according to 24/7)

Austin Mack - 9th WR in class -> UDFA

Binjimen Victor -12th WR in class -> UDFA

KJ Hill - 16th WR in class -> 7th rd pick

DenverBuckeye

April 27th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^

From a Buckeye perspective, the only surprise really was Hill. The Chargers got a steal and they even acknowledged as much. Victor's issues were inconsistency and that his frame legitimately cannot take more weight. He's a twig. Mack battled injuries for a couple of years now and was ultimately passed by Olave and Wilson. If Mack can stay healthy, he's actually a very good, well-rounded WR. I think he could easily find a niche and have a very productive career.

It also doesn't help that these guys had three years of Zach Smith as their position coach.

TrueBlue2003

April 27th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^

So yeah, Mattison leaves a year ago and Partridge a couple months ago and Michigan no longer has any defensive recruiting.  This is a big problem.  Need MOAR all-star recruiters on that side of the ball.  And if it takes firing Brown to give a guy the DC carrot, it's beginning to be about that time (and I'm one of the remaining Brown defenders but he's not a recruiter)

Also, fuck Greg Mattison.

 

dragonchild

April 28th, 2020 at 6:44 AM ^

Mattison leaving was probably addition by subtraction.  In his last couple years D-line recruiting languished, the guys we had didn't develop, and a bunch of guys left.  He is probably most responsible for the DT crisis last year.  I don't know how far back his talks with OSU started but he definitely scorched the earth for some time before his way out.

Partridge's departure sucked.

L'Carpetron Do…

April 27th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^

I don't get into the recruiting wars/arguments around here but I acknowledge that there is a disparity and that Michigan largely underachieves with with what it has (I attribute that to a lack of motivation and mental focus more than anything else but that's another story). 

BUT - let's all train our hatred on this nerd:

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/27/michigan-10-players-drafted-nfl-jim-harbaugh/

This dude is the worst and is an unabashed Michigan hater. It's the Daily Caller, I know, I know, so it shouldn't matter, but his pieces on Michigan/Harbaugh are ridiculously one-sided and unfair. This one is full of bad faith as well. He doesn't even reference the fact that Ohio State had far more players drafted in the higher rounds than Michigan did. But that  would of course back up the argument that Michigan is in fact operating at a talent disadvantage. You should read  his trash article on how Michigan fans were treating the bowl game against Alabama as our "Super Bowl" without providing any evidence of this fact whatsoever. If I recall, most of the fanbase dreaded that matchup and were glad to come away with a decent showing and a non-blowout loss.

I'm just impressed that the Daily Caller's commitment to shitty journalism is so strong that even its sports reporting is 100% trash. 

micheal honcho

April 27th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^

So, now I’m 50% on my prediction(Shea wouldn’t get a sniff in draft day) now I only have to wait 1yr to complete my prediction that more than a few here scoffed at. Brandon Peters will get drafted. 
 

I’m not saying he’ll play, but on measurables alone he’ll get his number called. That will make coach khakis look like a numbskull.

Alumnus93

April 28th, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^

It seems like Harbaugh changed after his father moved back... he looks so much older now.. When we got him he looked young and hip, now he looks like his father, glasses and all.  Gotta wonder the psychological relation there when it begins to go awry and you percieve failing in front of father, the latter btw reads this blog.

JPC

April 28th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^

the latter btw reads this blog.

I'm sure it's tough to read some of the stuff that people (I) have written about his son. I hope Jim gets his mojo back. He was so good at Stanford.

BornInA2

April 27th, 2020 at 8:39 PM ^

I don't think anyone is mad because ten players got drafted.

I also don't think "Come to Michigan and be a fifth round pick" is going to net a lot of top recruits.

We've somehow become the place top end recruits come to be above average. And that doesn't bode well for future recruiting.

Also, that the top three picks spent time at OSU doesn't help us.

Alumnus93

April 27th, 2020 at 9:35 PM ^

DPJ and Blacks lack of production illustrates a big issue.   They were criminally underutilized. And this affects recruiting becuause national highlights tend to show the exciting plays which are passing TDs.   This is a good recruiting tool.  Carr's teams had no problem with it with guys like Terrell and Braylon always in the highlights.  And that helps recruits wanna come here.   Harbaughs teams haven't done this at all, and if we want an uptick in recruiting we have to get Collins lots of long TDs to make the airwaves.  If we don't, no good wr will want to come here after seeing how they didn't use our WRs.  

dragonchild

April 28th, 2020 at 6:41 AM ^

If you want a laugh, check out Patterson's profile over at NFL.com.  These might be my favorites:

  • Works through progressions and makes quality decisions
  • Slow to feel edge close in at times

. . . who'd they watch?

As for recruiting, I got my own horn to toot.  I'm not all that bothered by Michigan recruiting 3-stars out of New England.  It's a moneyball move and not a dumb one (as long as that's not all you're doing, and that seems to be all they're doing).

I'm far more bothered that they have recruiting lapses to the point of running out of warm bodies at various positions.  Brian covered how they missed on an elite left tackle back when we needed one, and in such a knuckleheaded manner you'd think they preferred doing without.  They KNEW DT was going to be a hole and last season even a Matt Godin caliber DT would've made a huge difference in key games because they played effin' Jordan Glasgow (who FTR was fine when not asked to play DT) on the interior because they literally had nobody.  And now that same damn problem is looming at CB.

There will be seasons when a program at Michigan's place and time will have to field a 3-star "just a guy" when you'd obviously prefer a dude.  It's unreasonable to expect 4- and 5-star recruits to flock to a program that hasn't once challenged for a title so far this century.  But WTF is Michigan doing by playing literally no one at various key positions??  There's having your rough days and then there's incompetence you don't even see at Rutgers.

The folks (or rather That Guy) complaining that Michigan isn't hauling in truckloads of elite recruits are complaining about the wrong thing!

JPC

April 28th, 2020 at 10:15 AM ^

You said this really well. It would be great if Michigan could field a team of guys all above .95 on the recruiting sites, but that's not going to happen. What CAN happen is having a sufficient number of decent players for every spot on the field. There's no reason to have two guards playing OT, or having a converted FB play DT against Wisconsin, or having shit QB play so often.

That is the issue with recruiting.

matty blue

April 28th, 2020 at 6:42 AM ^

every bit of this discussion is simple confirmation bias.  if you think that recruiting is down, or that the coaching is bad, or that things were better with the highlighter pants, then ten players drafted is further proof of that.  if you think the opposite, then ten players drafted is further proof of that, too.  all of it is just a hook onto which you hang whatever argument you feel like making today.  or, in most cases, the argument you make every day, no matter what.

it's exacerbated by the fact that the nfl draft and its very existence as a topic of discussion is the most masturbatory exercise in sports, even in the best of times.  multiply that by a million, and before you know it you're arguing about whether jordan glasgow getting drafted is good or bad for the program.

DonAZ

April 28th, 2020 at 7:33 AM ^

Seth: To me it is quite simple: kids want to go play in the playoffs and only a few teams can make it to the playoffs.

This is true, and it was a perfectly predictable outcome of the playoff system.

When they put the playoff system in place, it was clear there would be an arms race for the top talent, because, as has been said many times, success begets success.  When implemented in 2014, there was perhaps a four year window to become part of the "haves" that are plausibly in the playoff picture, and those not in that group would never get in.  The "haves" are the schools we have seen over and over: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma ... with Georgia and LSU also in the picture.

(This season will tell whether LSU has staying power, or if they caught lightning in an bottle.)

The window has largely closed.  Teams like Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas, and Southern Cal, are not in the "haves."  They are solid teams, but they don't have enough on the roster to provide the fire power and depth to sustain a near-perfect season and two games in the playoffs.  Note the emphasis on depth.  The playoff-winning teams have quality depth; those on the outside don't.

What remains to be seen is how the college football landscape shakes out for those teams that can't even compete for the "solid team" moniker.  For now -- key emphasis -- there's money to be made fielding an 7-5 or 6-6 team.  We'll see if that holds up over the next 10 to 20 years.  I'm doubtful.

maizedNblued

April 28th, 2020 at 8:12 AM ^

Been saying it a long time....ACADEMICS are a thing at UM both initial entrance and continuing education and until the Wolverines allow for more slots, this will continue to be a thing. This isn't the 80's/90's anymore and the profile of an institution is important to a lot of people.

pdgoblue25

April 28th, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^

I don't think scouts can get over that DPJ just doesn't look like he's playing fast on the field.  One guy described it as he needs a runway to get going.  I honestly think it's fair.

DPJ ran a 4.48, and Denard ran a 4.43, at any point did DPJ ever look like he was as fast as Denard on the field?

Having said that, i mentioned in another thread that DPJ will have a real chance to shine in the slot for us.  That position is wide open, and with defenders wondering what Chubb/OBJ/Landry are doing, Donovan will more than likely be singled up on a safety/LB.

dragonchild

April 28th, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^

The analogy I like to go with, based on their assessments, is that DPJ is like a bullet train -- very high top-end speed but takes forever to get there and runs on rails.

Denard's quickness was available in every direction.  It was an intriguing asset even at the NFL level, if not for the fact that it was basically the only thing he had as an NFL RB.

markusr2007

April 28th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^

Dumb question:

Aside from the losing streak to Ohio State, is there a known specific set of reasons why Michigan recruiting has been a "problem"?

Michigan's recruiting has been in the "very good" category comparatively (BIG10), but not at "Elite" level (nationally).

Harbaugh has returned Michigan to Lloyd Carr's level pretty much. 9-3 seasons and usually a bowl loss.

Very competitive, but not consistently "Elite" like Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, etc.

No matter how pissed off people are here, I try to have some perspective: USC's 2020 recruiting class finished 55th. 13 commits, no 5-stars, two 4-stars, 11 3-stars. 

For USC, that's a smoldering crater.

Gratitude is in order, fellas.

JPC

April 28th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^

The problem is unbalanced classes, poor usage, and bad retention. We have spots with no decent guy to fill while taking 4 WRs in a single class which were never really used or retained. That pumps up our team rankling on signing day, but it also leads to using Ben Mason as a DT.

BlueTuesday

April 28th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^

Lloyd Carr went 6-7 vs Ohio State. Won a national championship. Produced a Heisman Trophy winner.

Also, he won or shared the B1G championship 5 times in 13 years.

While their season records are comparable, there’s no question who was the better coach.
 

Harbaugh will be judged and remembered for what his teams did against Ohio State.

 

MGoFoam

April 28th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^

My take-away from This Week's Obsession is that we should have gotten the Princeton QB, rather than the Ole Miss QB. He probly would've been OK academically.

Mongo

April 28th, 2020 at 9:05 PM ^

Having played high school football with the Dufek brothers I can’t imagine a Glasgow vs Dufek backyard football game.  Would that be cool or what ?

Those Dufek brothers were crazy dudes.  Watching Billy just f-ING crush some 300 lb Greco Roman Michigan HS wrestling God was an out of body experience.  The two Michigan Dufek brothers were college All-Americans.  The youngest choose Harvard as a QB, which back in those days was a more lucrative long term choice than being the next Rich Leach.  The Glasgows are really good but not All-Americans like Don and Bill Dufek. Just saying the obvious.