THE EVENT: So long as Michigan survives Thursday (and your band of health-compromised bloggers do as well), we’re going to get together this Friday at 2:30 at Wolverine Brewing for our first MGo-gamewatch party. Sponsor Nick Hopwood of Peak Wealth Management, who also sponsors this post, offered to cover the first couple rounds and some food for our tables. Please let us know if you’re coming so we can get a halfway decent count (if we run out of space signups get first priority: https://goo.gl/forms/t0F28mhfnYRRbKPh2

Also if you’re in New York, Dewey’s Pub down the street from MSG tends to collect the MGoBlog contingent after the game.

THE SPONSOR: How are you managing your savings? Your insurance? What kind of accounts do you have for your kids? Our MGoFinancial Planner Nick Hopwood from Peak Wealth Management is the guy to talk to.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

-------------------------------

The Big Ten released its all-conference selections so we decided to complain, of course.

Brian: Ugh, naming a team without a center is like naming a football team without an OL. My pet peeve is first team all conference basketball teams that wouldn't be very good. And this is a season with Ethan Happ and Isaac Haas!

Seth: Haas got so much love all season on BTN I was both surprised and totally fine with him being left out. I But I agree even Beilein wouldn't play a lineup of Bridges-Palmer-KBD-Carr-Edwards.

Ace: Jackson freshman of the year, KBD player of the year, Duncan Robinson(!) 6th man of the year.

Seth: This is the part where Ace is mad Poole didn't make any of these teams.

Ace: They probably got the right guys since Poole emerged so late, though that lineup doesn’t pass the “this would work on the court” test.

Brian: Two pure Cs might be worse than none. Ugh, all broken, I'm just naming my first team because guh.

C Isaac Haas. Not Haas's fault he's got a windmill on the bench behind him and a team around him. Haas has per-minute stats that stack up with anyone, spearheaded the nation's #15 eFG defense, and plays on an actually good team. Happ's numbers are silly in part because he has one other guy who can play on his team; he's more effective on offense but doesn't bring anywhere near the rim protection Haas does. The Mo mismatch applies to both of these guys; Haas was much better at attacking at the other end of the floor.

Ace: Happ is also way worse at free throws, which is a big deal for both of them. Totally agree with this one. In general, everyone seems to have overvalued raw numbers.

Haas hit one fewer FT on 31 fewer attempts in B1G play.

Alex: PUT SOME RESPECK ON ETHAN HAPP'S NAME, ACE AND BRIAN.

[After THE JUMP: how long until Ace says Poole is robbed you think?]

Brian: F Juwan Morgan. I know Indiana fans are annoying but they are also correct that Morgan got snubbed. High usage dude hitting 63% of his twos with zero help from the rest of his trash team. Draws a ton of fouls. Blocks in the top 200 at 6'7". Great OREB guy, great TO guy. Efficient despite not being a huge three point threat, and utterly alone in that efficiency on the Hoosiers. Ranks in the top 500 everywhere on Kenpom except assist rate--see trash teammates again---and fouls/40.

Ethan Happ had to do everything for the moribund mammals to the west. [Patrick Barron]

Ace: I’m waiting to see your other forward spot before commenting on this…

Brian: F Keita Bates-Diop. No complaints with this selection. Impact help defender on best in-conference defense. DREBs top 50. High usage, efficient player on team that plays Dakich 20 minutes. Carries Happ-esque burden in terms of shots that go up.

Ace: KBD is the POTY, but I can’t support a first team without Vince Edwards. High efficiency, relatively high usage, really excellent defender whose versatility makes him even better than the stats, IMO.

Morgan is better on the boards statistically but he’s their #1 rebounding option while Edwards has a ton of chances scooped up by Haas/Haarms.

I think if you switched those guys Edwards would put up some big numbers.

Also, Indiana fans are f*ing annoying.

Brian: It's close, but I thought Morgan's ability to produce surrounded by... that... was more impressive than Edwards; Morgan also racked up D stats by the bucket, though in part that's because IU has to play him at C.

I can totally see your perspective though.

Ace: I also might be slightly swayed by feeling that twinge of “I’d love to have that guy on Michigan” every time I watch Edwards. Morgan’s not as good a fit.

It’s definitely close.

Seth: It's Haas/Happ in reverse though, isn't it? Like I think Haas is a better player but when I think back on this season is it the one when Haas had the best team of his six seasons around him and was Haas-like, or the year Happ put the punchable face guild on his back in an utterly brilliant display of sports futility?

Ace: It’s a bit less extreme in this case but there’s certainly some of that going on.

Brian: G Carsen Edwards. Another 30% shots guy hitting 54/41 with a Beilein worth A:TO ratio. 27% of his twos are assisted. 65% of his threes are. Hitting 45% on mostly rise-up off the dribble non-rim 2PA. Respectable steal rate. Murdered Michigan at Crisler. Of the Steph-likes in the league this year the highest usage and most terrifying. Is he not an NBA prospect? I would like him to be an NBA prospect.

Carsen Edwards did more than any review to earn Purdue a win at Crisler. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Ace: He is absolutely an NBA prospect.

Brian: Like, now?

Ace: Probably not, unfortunately. But I’d like for him to go.

Brian: See, I want now.

G Cassius Winston. I know he's a turnstile on D and has a crappy TO rate. I don't care! He is shooting 57% from three. His main problem is that he is clearly taking an insufficient number of them. He also has the third-best A rate in the country. The end.

Ace: Yeah, Cowan over Winston has a bit of a Mason over Walton feel. Cowan is much better than Mason, to be clear, but he had a ton of minutes/volume on his side.

I’m also pretty damn impressed that Cowan managed his efficiency while basically never leaving the court. It’s closer than last year should’ve been.

Brian: Cowan's usage is barely higher than Winston's. I know he makes a bunch of tough shots but... yeah. 57% vs 38% from deep. Can't do it.

Ace: Should note that way more of Winston’s threes were assisted (86% to 51%). Cowan has some serious degree of difficulty. Cowan on MSU would be pretty damn good. But there’s still Winston’s absurd assist rate.

Brian: Yeah. Cowan's time is coming, probably next year.

Ace: Both will go pro in sports.

Alex: Because I think that the whole positionality thing slightly skews where these players should be, I'll go with a list of the top fifteen.

That list:

1. Keita Bates-Diop (F)
2. Tony Carr (G)
3. Carsen Edwards (G)
4. Miles Bridges (F)
5. Cassius Winston (G)
6. Ethan Happ (C)
7. Juwan Morgan (F)
8. Dakota Mathias (G)
9. Vince Edwards (F)
10. James Palmer (F)
11. Isaac Haas (C)
12. Moe Wagner (C)
13. Jordan Murphy (F)
14. Anthony Cowan (G)
15. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (G)

(If this broke down into G-G-F-F-C, it would be Carr-C. Edwards-KBD-Bridges-Happ, Winston-Mathias-Morgan-V. Edwards-Haas, Cowan-MAAR-Palmer-Murphy-Wagner)

A few things: I thought that KBD and Carr each had an excellent case for #1, but went with KBD because he didn't have that much help relative to Carr and his team was much better. As for the Purdue guys, I had their four main guys in the top 11, but went with Carsen Edwards because he's the type of dynamic playmaker that's lacking elsewhere on the roster. I think Bridges is a little overrated and Winston is quite underrated; the latter is more important to MSU in general and deserves a first-team spot regardless of his defensive weaknesses.

It's not Happ's fault that Wisconsin is bad, and an average line of 18-8-4 when he's facing constant double teams is terrific. He's met or slightly exceeded expectations to me. From there, things get pretty muddled. I love Morgan's game and he pretty much singlehandedly dragged Indiana to a .500 record in conference play. Palmer seems too low on this list but I can't quite justify putting him over anyone above him. I put Mathias over Vince Edwards but those two are basically the same to me.

Haas is pretty low relative to where he is on most other lists. Part of that is because of his weaknesses: at 5.4 rebounds per game, he's not even top 20 in the league, depending on the matchups, he can be a defensive liability, and while he's a great post scorer, the optimal strategy against Purdue is to let him get his at the expense of everyone else. Also notable: he scored 14 points in games against Wisconsin; Happ scored 36. Wagner took a while to round into form, but he's had too many quiet games to rank higher. Murphy's numbers are ridiculous and merit recognition. Cowan and MAAR inch ahead of a couple other guys: Cowan has the numbers, MAAR has been great over the last month and plays on a Tournament team.

--------------------------------

Second team, quickly:

Brian: Happ, Jaren Jackson, Vincent Edwards, Tony Carr, Cowan

Seth:

Brian: Actually... probably Moe over Happ.

Ace: Yep.

Seth:

Brian: That individual matchup was a Moe blowout with no help D. And only one shoots threes and hits FTs.

Ace: Plus Wagner closed the gap on the boards in a major way.

Seth:

Ace: Mine would go Wagner-JJJ-Morgan-Carr-Cowan but I’m every so slightly tempted to drop either Wagner or JJJ for Dakota Mathias.

Seth:

Brian: Can I just point out that Jackson has a 15% block rate and hit 61/42 from the floor on average-ish usage? How is that not more valuable than some guy with 24-28 percent usage and equal efficiency who isn't swatting one out of every seven shots that go up?

That's a Bridges subtweet fwiw.

Everyone at Purdue was just higher on our boards. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Ace: He’s absurd. I was bracing for the reaction when I said Wagner or JJJ because I’d drop Wagner. Ugh, I’d put Bridges over Mathias, but I want to shout out Mathias.

Brian: We can't just name Purdue the All Big Ten team. Even after that game.

Ace: I’m gonna veer dangerously close to Dakich territory but I really value guys who can perform as efficiently as him as a sharpshooter while also playing dogged defense.

And he’s the rare off-ball perimeter shot creator, if that makes sense. It should after that game.

Brian: It does.

Ace: To be clear, I’d still go with Wagner or Bridges over him. But I really like Mathias’ game.

Seth: (I am all out of Moe faces)

Brian: Now is the point at which Scooby Doo bursts in the room and rips off our masks, revealing that we've been two different Purdue Petes this whole time.

Ace: That’s a terrifying visual.

Brian: More wins over OSU though! So basically the only thing we disagree on is whether Morgan or Vincent Edwards deserves to nose ahead of the other.

Ace: Having to slot these guys by position generates some weird results. Winston isn’t the most valuable guy on State but he’s got the best argument for first team.

Down year for point guards, up year for bigs (at least at the top of the conference).

(And Happ.)

Brian: I prefer to think of it as sensible pushback against weird results.

Ace: True, I like either of our teams much better than what came out. Should we do defense and freshmen or just mention that Z got robbed?

Seth: Z got robbed.

Alex: Z got absolutely robbed.

ya Z got robbed. [Barron]

Ace: We probably should be giving more first-team consideration to Tony Carr and Simpson completely took him out of that game until it was all but over. He saved his numbers late in that one. He won the one-on-one matchup with Winston decisively. Cowan was the only guy who could really get much on him.

Brian: Yeah, he's got to be all D. Then Haarms, Jackson, and it doesnt matter because all your shots get blocked.

Ace: Mathias.

Brian: Sure. Mathias, and KBD.

Ace: I like the Josh Reaves pick they had.

Brian: Yeah but windmills.

Seth: While we're on PSU did Watkins sneak in thanks to absence factor? Their last two games were brutal without him.

Brian: I value blocks a lot because they also have this halo of bad shots that don't make a boxscore. Watkins does have a very good combo of blocks and DREBs.

Ace: Watkins is a legit defender.

Brian: Haarms only played like 16 MPG and won't make lists because of that.

Ace: I’d take him over Haarms, who tends to get out of position for rebounds while going for blocks.

Brian: FINE

Ace: Alright, this is going to shock you guys, but I’ve changed my mind: Poole was robbed.

a liquid is introduced [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Seth: There it is.

Ace: Would anyone really rather have Trent Frazier?

Brian: You don't even need to boot him, take out Fernando.

Ace: Or Brad Davison? I’d have Fernando in there. That guy got legit by the end of the year.

Brian: Two Cs? Unpossible.

Ace: JJJ has been playing PF all year.

Brian: Wesson is a C man.

Ace: Gah, right. Sorry, Bruno.

Brian: And he's clearly got an edge on Fernando. Also I would rather have Luka Garza at C. Good lord this is a trash year for FR in conference.

Alex: Yeah, only one great recruit (Jackson) and it shows.

Ace: Garza’s numbers benefit from playing on a team that gives zero shits about defense while Fernando does all the big man stuff really well. Give me Bruno. Agreed, it’s a bad year for freshmen.

Brian: Garza had a 121 ORTG on 24 usage.

Ace: Defense is a thing.

Brian: But anyway, Wesson, JJJ, Frazier, Poole, Davison.

Ace: yesssssss

If you ignore positions like everyone else apparently did I’d argue for four bigs and Poole. Replace Frazier and Davison with Fernando and Garza.

Brian: Well, that's everything I think.

Ace: Do we want to name the guys we thought were closest to the 2nd team cut? It got tough at a few spots. My quick toughest omissions: MAAR (came on too late), Palmer, Huerter, Mathias, Watkins, Isaiah Roby, Jae’Sean Tate. Also, Jordan Murphy making the second team is probably the most absurd pick that got made officially.

Brian: Other guys I thought about: Happ, Watkins, Isaiah Roby, Tyler Cook, MAAR, James Palmer, Mathias, Kipper Nichols If He Only Played Michigan. It was pretty cut and dried at the G spots.

Ace: One more: Jordan Bohannon. All for offense but the guy can shoot.

Seth: The more I ponder this the more I want the Big Ten to add an "All-Blaze of Glory" team category.

Brian: All breakout team. Or is this too long?

Ace: No I like that?

Brian: No croots.

-------------------------

2018 ALL BREAKOUT TEAM

Brian: Poole, obviously. Nobody's stepping up at the 2 next year so he's getting 30 swagged out minutes.

Seth: So many good young bigs will probably hide Teske for a year.

Brian: I thought Xavier Tillman looked very good in limited time this year and pretty much that whole frontcourt is gone to the NBA.

Ace: Does Nick Ward qualify for maybe actually getting to play enough minutes to be the All-American he could be?

Brian: I kind of assumed Ward would go to the draft because he and Izzo want to murder each other.

Ace: He’s not really the kind of guy who gets picked early in the draft these days. He’d be better off transferring.

Brian: I know, but he might go anyway. He's not going to be a different player later.

Ace: That’s true, too. Anyway, I think he’ll come back and finally get enough of a leash to really tear it up. Isaiah Roby could take his game to another level. He’s got a lot of upside.

Brian: Haarms is about to get a crap ton more minutes and was a true freshman big this year; he'll improve a great deal.

Ace: Also while mentioning Isaiahs I obviously must bring up Livers so long as Brandon Johns isn’t an absolute monster right away.

Brian: Roby is a good pick; I think he already broke out but not a lot of people noticed.

Ace: He’s better than he realizes, I think. If he’s more assertive he’ll be all-conference.

Alex: I like Roby as well. Great as a mobile five.

Brian: This one is kind of off the wall but I thought Jack Nunge looked like the kind of guy who could be a super large, very skilled stretch four. He's got Cook blocking him though. If Moe leaves and Teske improves half as much as he did from FR to SO he will also be a breakout guy.

Ace: I know he was a bad shot machine this year but Isaiah Washington was a highly regarded recruit who will definitely get chances to put up more bad shots at Minnesota. Z should probably be mentioned just based on the Law of Beilein.

Also: Charles Matthews.

My kingdom for a handle.

(Have we now mentioned next year’s entire potential starting lineup? Yes.)

Brian: Washington is hilarious, I'll give him that.

Ace: They leaned on him way too hard, too early. It produced some comedy. Also Minnesota’s offense is traaaaaaaaaaash.

Brian: It's a good thing he and Poole aren't on the same team. They'd just take progressively more insane heat checks to one up each other.

Ace: Washington is from Michigan and now I kinda want him to transfer here.

Brian: We've mentioned every team in this post except two.

Ace: Just to see someone hit a tuba with a stepback three.

Rutgers and?

Brian: Northwestern.

Ace: Yikes. Dererk Pardon is good.

Brian: How the briefly mighty have fallen.

Seth: Rutgers has Geo Baker, who's kind of intriguing if they ever learn to pass the ball. There.

Brian: The point wasn't to mention them

Seth: Squeezing a SG on a team with zero assists into the end counts as much.

Ace: The most embarrassing thing about the conference this year is multiple teams are in the general area of Rutgers Bad and they’re still clearly the worst team.

Brian: God, the iso bricks.

Ace: Corey Sanders: 28.5% usage, 87.1 ORTG. Imagine watching that.

Brian: No. This post has ended.