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Formation Notes: I did the best I could with Fox’s weird angles.

Note that they are playing with a nickel SAM who’s well inside the slot receiver. I just called that a 4-3 Over front with 2-4-5 personnel. My nomenclature for Wisconsin’s fronts was as follows:

• Nose: Middle lineman when they have three on the field.
• DT: The two DEs who are regular DTs in their 2-4-5 package.
• DE: An OLB in their 2-4-5 package who lined up like Hutchinson et al.
• OLB: An OLB standing up who’s not acting like a DE.

Also I used names for their two ILBs because they are both stars and that seemed pretty relevant when something happened with them. Speaking of names, this is Gun Trips FB Unbalanced.

Michigan also debuted some tempo, which I’m going to denote with by the time on the playclock when the snap, example: “Tempo(29).”

Substitution Notes: Starters most of the way except they used McCarthy after halftime. Also Keegan came out for Filiaga for the 3rd drive, Filiaga messed up a backside block, and it was Keegan again until late in the 3rd Q, then Filiaga replaced Zinter for the last drive I charted. TrueBlueinTexas has been keeping track.

[After THE JUMP: Around.]

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol Wk	2-4-5	3-4 Odd	2	Pass	8	Cross	Baldwin	Inc	-0.70
UW is telegraphing a S run blitz and it comes but M is passing (RPS+1). Blitz picked but McNamara is feeling pressure and hop passes behind Baldwin, who's wide open. He tries to catch and turn in at once and drops it. (IN, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
M25	2nd	10	Pistol Wk	2-4-5	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Split Zone Z	Haskins	7	0.31
UW is slanting in so Baldwin can't get a kick on the OLB (RPS-1) but Zinter+2 blew the NT 3 yards downfield and reached him. Haskins takes that and falls forward.
M32	3rd	3	Gun Wk	2-4-5	4-3 Over	2	Pass	6	ARO	Sainristil	2	-0.33
Nk blitzing again, he's picked up. Sainristil(-1, route-1) turned too high and has to jump when if he runs this to the sticks it's an easy first down. Instead it's 4th and short. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+0.5)
M34	4th	1	Gun X tight	2-4-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	9	Dive	Haskins	3	1.75
Stueber(+1) clears out the NT and Honigford(+0.5) got a kick on the OLB so there's a big gap for Haskins to go through a safety. He leaps through the safety.
M37	1st	10	Gun Wk Flex	2-4-5	4-3 Over	2	Run	6.5	Pitch Sweep	Corum	4	-0.16
OLB squeezes in but this is a fake option. RPS+1, would be +2 if a real option. Doesn't matter really since Schoonmaker(-2) got blown up by Sanborn and Baldwin(-0.5) got pushed back by the CB. All-American LB play.
M41	2nd	6	Gun Str Bunch	2-4-5	4-3 Under	2	Pass	8	Slant	Johnson	Inc	-1.02
Brian and I disagreed on the podcast whether he's got to catch this. Without a better angle I stick by Cade on this one. Corum flare draws the OLB and opens the slant which is thrown a little outside the hash. Too far inside and it carries into the S, WR has to be looking for it when he stems inside. Could be a foot further in, shouldn't have been dropped. (MA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M41	3rd	6	Gun Twins Empty	2-4-5	4-3 Split	1	Pass	7	Out	Schoonmaker	5	0.06
Schoonmaker(route-) runs this a yard short of the sticks. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M46	4th	1	Pistol Ace	3-4-4	5-4 Odd	1	Run	9	Split Zone Z	Haskins	0	-4.28
You ask the impossible. DE lines up inside Hayes and he's supposed to wash him down (RPS-2) and no answer if he doesn't since that cuts off frontside doubles that are getting movement thanks to Keegan(+0.5) and Vastardis(+0.5) but not Stueber(-1) who's stalemated in the backfield so there's nowhere to burrow if Haskins could (he can't).
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs. 0-0. 12 min 1st Q. Next drive starts at the M1.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M1	1st	10	Ace Heavy	3-4-4	5-4 Odd	1	Run	9	QB Sneak	McNamara	2	-0.11
Zinter(+0.5) and Stueber(+0.5) carve out enough to give M some room.
M3	2nd	8	Pistol Ace	3-4-4	5-4 Odd	1	Run	9	Split Zone ZF	Haskins	1	-0.17
Sick of this play. Vastardis(-1) moved back by NG, Hayes(-1) already stood up in the backfield by a DT gets a LB blowing into him as well that Honigford(-1) whiffed on. WRs had good blocks outside but this wasn't a keeper.
M4	3rd	7	Gun Str	3-4-4	425 Split	2	Pass	7	RB Magic	Corum	8	0.54
Keegan(-1) is late picking up a safety, who falls at Cade's feet. He feels it, bails, and tosses to Corum(+3) at the LoS. He meets two LBs (Burks+Sanborn) at 3 yards and powers through them for the other five. If it's a play I'm going to forever associate with a guy that's a +3. (CA, 1, Prot 0/1, Keegan-1, McNamara+1)
M12	1st	10	Gun Twins	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	RPO	8	Slants/OZ	Johnson	Inc	-0.38
Right read (RPO+1) but Chenal is coming in for a big shot which might have thrown this off. Ball is low and behind CJ. (IN, 0, Prot 0/1, TEAM-1, McNamara-1)
M12	2nd	10	Gun Wk	2-4-5	425 Over	1	Pass	8	Back Shoulder Fade	Johnson	Inc	-0.17
Other one where I disagreed w Brian because Vastardis(-2) let a DT right up the gut and Cade is getting hit as he throws it up. It sails past the fade zone. (PR, 1, Prot 0/2, Vastardis-2)
M12	3rd	10	Gun Twins	2-4-5	425 Under	2	Pass	7	TE Leak	All	5	0.01
Stunt is picked up. Fox won't even get the 1st down in the shot but it looks like Wilson cleared the safety on his side. Cade dumps it off to All. GUAP. (TA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 8 min 1st Q. This drived ended on the 12, Robbins+Henning set Michigan up on the 41 next drive. Special teams.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M41	1st	10	Pistol 12 Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	8	Split Trap	Corum	7	0.70
Both TEs off the line on the strong side, kick OLB, trap DT and MLB (All+0.5) . Zinter(+1) comboed to the WLB and this is about to break big if Keegan(-0.5) can lock up his DT a bit longer. RPS+1 this caught the safety frontside is why there's nobody to stop Corum if he breaks this tackle.
M48	2nd	3	Pistol 12 Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Under	2	Run	7	F Fold	Corum	4	0.28
Tempo(29) catches UW looking at the sideline (RPS+1). All(+0.5) locked outn OLB, Honigford(+0.5) popped an LB. Henning(-1) slows up to catch a safety instead of hit him, while UW's CB (Faion Hicks, the Flanagan kid) screams in and lays a lick on Corum that he'll feel in the morning. Corum is rocked back and now the cavalry have arrived. Hat tip to Hicks.
O48	1st	10	Pistol 12 Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	8.5	End Around	Henning	1	-0.84
RPS+1 gets the extra S to bite and wastes a DT. Stueber(-2) gets an OLB going inside him and can't cut off this guy's pursuit. All(+1) popped the safety so this has the distance if not for that. OLB runs it down. Seriously impressed with Badger D.
O47	2nd	9	Pistol 2RB	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Play-Action	7.5	Wheel	Edwards	Inc	-1.08
PA gets Prot+ because they're picking up blitzers FYI. Cade has all day, Edwards is open by many yards, but this is floated downfield instead of zinged which allows the S to make a play. Could have zinged it shorter or put it downfield and it's a TD (RPS+2). He shorts it and the S can juuuust make a play. Slowmo replay makes it look like a drop at first but safety actually swiped it out. (IN, 1, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
O47	3rd	9	Gun Str Flex	2-4-5	Okie	1	Penalty	7	False Start	Keegan	-5	-0.87
Both Hayes and Keegan flinch when Chenal feints towards the LOS (rulebook). Refs-2, this should have been a delay of game on Wisconsin.
M48	3rd	14	Gun Empty	2-4-5	425 Split	1	Pass	6.5	Hitch	Wilson	12	1.39
This is playing to go for it. Hitch to Wilson(+1) who scoots up the sideline to get to 4th and makeable. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O40	4th	2	Gun Twins	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Pass	8	ARO	Wilson	6	2.16
McNamara called timeout and UW takes the Nk off the field. RPS+2 for that and UW is playing off this. (CA, 3, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
O34	1st	10	Pistol Ace	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Pass	8	Flea Flicker	Johnson	34	2.89
More like WHEEE FLICKER amirite? RPS+3 they get UW biting and stacking the box. Perfect throw. (DO, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-0. 4 min 1st Q. Verrry aggryessive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M30	1st	10	Pistol Ace Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	8	Split Zone	Corum	2	-0.43
Brian wanted them to go right back to the flea flicker and he's not wrong as UW is back in the box who makes this tackle. RPS-1. Stueber(-1) got stood up and UW is overplaying the intended gap. Zinter(-1) worked down to the LB level then chased Sanborn, who's overplaying the crack, outside which sucks because Vastardis(+2) reached the nose and there was a backside if the S gets blocked instead. Filiaga(-0.5) lost his OLB but in a way that would have made the bounce possible if this S isn't allowed to just walk into the backfield.
M32	2nd	8	Pistol Bone	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Play-Action	8	Deep Hitch	Wilson	17	2.20
Don't want to knock Cade for a 17-yard pass too much but UW has mortgaged Boardwalk and Park Place to kill a run, RPS+2. He sits back there so long UW gets to full pass rush, and Honigford(-1) loses Chenal. This is late and low and Wilson has to dig it out. He does..I think. It was on the M sideline and Michigan goes tempo before they can review it. (MA, 1, Prot 2/3, Honigford-1. McNamara-1)
M49	1st	10	Pistol Ace Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	7.5	Z Fold	Corum	1	-0.89
Tempo(25) maybe our sideline didn't want a review. Stueber(+1) and Zinter(+1) move their DL back and there's a lot of space except. CJ(-2) misses a safety screaming in to stuff this or else it's Corum vs a CB (not Hicks).
50	2nd	9	Gun Trips Unbalanced	2-4-5	3-4 Under	1	Run	6	Split Zone	Corum	5	0.08
Stueber(+2) makes an American cheese mess worthy of my 4-year-old out of this UW DT. All(+0.5) got a good pop on Chenal who plays this as perfectly as he can. Henning(+1) got plenty of harassment on an OLB who's worried about an RPO. Unfortunately UW is blitzing the backside and that guy can get into Corum's legs before we can see if he can break Chenal's tackle. RPS-1.
O45	3rd	4	Gun Twins	2-4-5	4-3 Under	1	Run	7	Counter CF	Corum	2	-0.65
Fake read holds Sanborn backside so McNamara(+1, read+1) give is correct I guess. Vastardis(+0.5) kick removes the OLB and Stueber(+1) moved out the DT, and All(+1) kicks Chenal out of the gap he set up in so this is made except Filiaga(-2) lost the backside DT who flows and tackles. M is setting up to go for it on 4th and 2, UW wants a false start (why I do not miss FFFF-ing this program; the W is for the thing that goes with cheese) as M lets the clock roll down, comes back out with a bunch of motion and yelling in their punt formation to see if they can draw UW offsides, takes a delay of game.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. EO1Q. Wanted them to go for it here. Wisconsin returner lets the ball hit him, refs make us sweat out a goofy review. M gets the ball at the W5.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O5	1st	Goal	Gun Str Tight	3-4-4	Goal Line	2	RPO	9	SZ/Split Flow Z	Haskins	1	-0.45
McNamara(RPO+1) reads a S to keep him off the edge. RPS-2 as UW is set up to slant this to death. Vastardis(+0.5) and Zinter(+1) get good blocks, Keegan(+1) swallows Chenal, but Hayes can't do anything with a DT set up inside him and slanting inside him AND an unblocked Sanborn, and the frontside is going straight upfield to deter a bounce. Maybe you run this play too much guys.
O4	2nd	Goal	Goal Line	3-4-4	Goal Line	NA	Run	9	Down G Pitch	Haskins	-4	-0.61
Honigford(-1) IDs the wrong guy to block down, and Schoonmaker(-2) has the wrong play I guess because he lets an OLB cross him then doesn't block anyone. Seems M wants to edge this and didn't plan a cutback lane. RPS-1.
O8	3rd	Goal	Gun Trips	4-2-5	425 over	1	Pass	1	Slant	Johnson	Inc	-0.35
RPS-2 as UW has 5 guys to the trips side. Check out of it or call TO guys. Slant to CJ is going to be short if completed; it's batted and luckily deflects away from lots of LBs. (BA, 0, Prot 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(26). Three RPS losses on a gift of a drive: Yikes.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M45	1st	10	Pistol 12 Unbalanced	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Pass	8	Post	Johnson	Inc	-1.16
I guess I asked for it. RPS-1 gamble that UW will sell out vs run to take a deep shot. CJ is bracketed and Cade throws anyways. Would have given him a CA if complete because it's thrown where CJ can make a play on it, but double-coverage is a gamble and All was singled on a TE wheel. (BR, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M45	2nd	10	Gun Empty	2-4-5	425 Under	1	Pass	6	Verts	Wilson	Inc	-0.91
Think Cade expected Wilson to run a dig on an option route here. Wilson(route+) stemmed deep and seemed to have leverage on the FS with a LB trailing well behind. Ball goes where there's nobody. Nobody guarding Honig's flare either. Fox doesn't believe in replays so we have no idea. (BRx, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
M45	3rd	10	Gun X tight	2-4-5	Okie	1	Pass	7	Dumpoff	Schoonmaker	7	0.40
UW brings the house, Hayes(-1, prot-1) gets inside-outed by a DT and holds (refs+1). Nobody open but the leaky TE who rumbles to bring up 4th down and a decision. (CA, 3, Prot 1/2, Hayes-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-0. 10 min 2nd Q. I'm okay with the punt here given the circumstances since UW hasn't moved the ball all day. Ensuing UW kickoff is OOB.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M35	1st	10	Gun 12 Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Run	7	Power Lead	Haskins	7	0.71
UW is slanting backside and it attacks frontside RPS+1 delivers Honigford(+0.5) to Chenal. Wilson(+1) pops a safety who lands on Sanborn and Haskins(+1) runs over a CB. Schoonmaker(-1) lost the OLB who ankle tackles.
M42	2nd	3	Pistol FB Trips Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	8	Split Trap	Haskins	7	0.61
All(+1) gets a good pop on Chenal in the hole to dig him out while Vastardis(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) comboed to the WLB. UW has a safety in the box (RPS-1) that Haskins(+1) runs over and stumbles for decent yardage. Note there's <2 minutes before half here as M is like the first team all year to have two positive run plays vs the UW run defense. They snap the next play with 1:30 left.
M49	1st	10	Gun 2TE	3-4-4	5-4 Odd	1	Pass	8	Back Shoulder Fade	Johnson	Inc	-1.13
Try it again and this time Hicks has his arm around CJ's neck but that's where the ball's going so ok with no flag if it's not called on us either. (CA, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M49	2nd	10	Gun Wk	2-4-5	4-3 Over	1	Pass	7	Quick Out	Wilson	4	-0.17
Borderline TA but this is his first read and gets 4 so whatever but no + for this. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1)
O47	3rd	6	Gun Wk	2-4-5	425 Under	1	Pass	6	Deep Out	Sainristil	13	2.28
House brought, picked up (Prot+2). Cade finds Sainristil who's wearing a CB as a backpack. Refs-2 they should flag it but probably would have if it wasn't caught? It's caught. (DO, 1, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O34	1st	10	Gun Wk	2-4-5	4-3 Over	1	Pass	7	TE Out	All	4	-0.06
Tempo(28) for a quick TE out to All(-1) who fumbles OOB. Hicks is banged up, Alexander Smith in for him. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O30	2nd	6	Gun Wk Z Tight	2-4-5	425 Over	1	Run	6	Power	Haskins	1	-0.54
Fake RPO gets no respect from blitzy Nk (RPS-1). Schoonmaker(-2) gets nothing on Sanborn. 1:03 left in the half.
O29	3rd	5	Gun Str Flex	2-4-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	8	Cross	Baldwin	Inc	-0.89
Agree with Klatt (and Cade) that Baldwin(route-) should have stopped. All day to throw this vs 5-man pressure. (CA, 3, Prot 3/3, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: FG(47). 13-3. 27 seconds 2nd Q. Mertz does the nasty. Next drive is a disinterested power run and not charted.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M41	1st	10	Pistol Str	2-4-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7	ZR Stretch	Haskins	3	-0.43
Ooh I want that to be an RPO. RPS-3 as UW is selling out 100% as if they know the Michigan backup QB means zone read. McCarthy(read+1) gives and Zinter(+1) moves out that same DT but Chenal raced in backside with no regard for a pass and ends it short. Can we hire someone or get them a copy of 21st century offense for dummies or something?
M44	2nd	7	Pistol Trips Unbalanced	2-4-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7	Arc Read Give	Haskins	2	-0.64
This is the arc with Henning as lead blocker (or receiver?) but McCarthy(-1, read-1) doesn't want to try a shuffling DE. I think Schoonmaker(-1) is reading Henning to see how he blocks this but he needs to turn that DE regardless. Keegan(+1) turned out his DT after wrestling to maybe give a gap Vastardis(-1) got popped back by Sanborn and there's nowhere to go.
M46	3rd	5	Empty Bunch	2-4-5	4-3 Split	1	Pass	8	Scramble	McNamara	4	-0.14
Cade returns. He's reading a triangle route on the frontside that's covered while Edwards is open on the backside vs a CB playing in the parking lot. Not that he ever looks backside, but he doesn't get the chance as Vastardis(-1, prot-1) can't control a looper and Cade has to take off. Gets him out of a BR, honestly, since the pre-snap read should have been Edwards. Cade's got an angle to the first, and...is surprisingly slow. Like Navarre slow. Safety gets him down a yard short. Okay man. Okay. (SCR, n/a, Prot 1/2, Vastardis-1, McNamara+1)
50	4th	1	Gun 12 Bunch	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Run	8	Dive	Haskins	2	2.19
Zinter(+1) and a second effort from Vastardis(+1) get push but Henning(-2) got blown back by an OLB and once again (RPS-1) they're slanting under Hayes who at least washed that guy just enough.
O48	1st	10	Gun Wk Flex	2-4-5	425 Over	2	Run	6.5	Split Zone/Slant	Corum	0	-1.07
UW OLB literally leaping at the kickout and blitzing the nickel to kill split zone. Michigan has an RPO (RPS+2) on to beat this that McNamara(-3, RPO-1) blows. Also Vastardis(+1) got rocked back by an uncalled hands to the face, yells it, guy lets go, and Vas moves him out, but Zinter(-1) stopped blocking to also call out the hands to the face. Refs-2 don't call it. Couldn't make my hot take right could you guys?
O48	2nd	10	Gun Str Flex	2-4-5	425 Under	1	Pass	6	Wheel	Corum	Inc	-1.05
Stopped replaying it because it got worse each watch. Cade has time to step up and room to throw over the 1st level. He rushes it and it goes behind Corum. (INx, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
O48	3rd	10	Gun Wk	2-4-5	425 Over	1	Pass	6	Fly	Wilson	38	3.30
Just when I thought I was out. Keegan(-2, Prot-2) lost a DE inside. Cade launches a duck downfield to Wilson(route+) who had 2 steps, adjusts, and brings in the bomb. Aloha! (CA+, 1, Prot 2/3, Keegan-1, McNamara+2)
O10	1st	Goal	Gun 12 Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Over	1	Run	8.5	Z Fold	Corum	4	-0.01
Corum(-1) misses a cut as Honigford(+1) and Wilson(+1) bury Sanborn and a S and Schoonmaker(+1) got an effective kick. Think he wants to try this gap behind a combo from Vastardis(+0.5) that was lost by Zinter(-0.5) and Stueber(-0.5) getting moved back as UW is overplaying the backside. RPS+1 this is a counter to Split that gets the wash intended. Corum rescues a point by running through Wilson's S and powering for a few.
O6	2nd	Goal	Gun Twins	3-4-4	4-4 Over	2	Run	7.5	F Fold	Corum	3	-0.10
Honigford(+2) got Sanborn and moved him. Schoonmaker(-2) can't get a good kick and turns late. The S who was read is now alone outside, sets an edge and Corum(+0.5) Harts out a few over him. Refs-1 miss a facemask on the OLB who beat Schoonmaker.
O3	3rd	Goal	Pistol Str	3-4-4	4-3 Under	2	Run	7	Zone Read Belly	Haskins	2	-0.16
Okay so Hayes(+1) made a lot of room vs his DE/DT whatever. Keegan(-1) got hung up in the squeeze from that and got nobody. Schoonmaker(-1) got blasted open by Chenal. Sainristil(-1) got can only get a block in the back (refs+1) on the S that pushes him into the RB's knees at the LoS. Haskins(+2) spins off that, and dives through a wad of bodies. He's in, but refs(-2) don't signal or call for a review. Not that we give them time because...
O1	4th	Goal	Goal Line	3-4-4	Goal Line	NA	Run	NA	QB Sneak	McCarthy	1	2.74
Tempo(21). Short until Keegan(+0.5) and Haskins(+0.5) Bush Push it in over the Schoonmaker(+0.5) block.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 20-10. 8 min 3rd Q. Chase Wolf time begins, UW already seems juiceless.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M10	1st	10	Gun 12 Bunch	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Run	8	FZ Fold	Corum	3	-0.15
Take the cut Corum(-2)! Same thing where Wilson(+1) gets a shoulder on the S but this time Stueber(+1) cleared out the DT and Honigford(-0.5) bounced off Sanborn. Burrow for a couple.
M13	2nd	7	Gun Trips FB Unbalanced	3-4-4	4-3 Under	1	Run	7.5	Arc Read Keeper	McCarthy	6	0.17
They get DE to step in and McCarthy(+1, read+1) keeps as Schoonmaker(+0.5) turns the OLB. Sainristil(+1) gets an extended block on a CB as McCarthy outruns a S who was rotating down for this (RPS-1) and shoulders through the CB and the marker. Side judge marks him a full yard short. Refs-1.
M19	3rd	1	Pistol FB Trips Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Split	1	Run	7	Split Trap	Haskins	8	0.84
Run it to the frontside (RPS+1) as they send the house backside, M counters with a Wham on the DT. Keegan(+1) catches a slanter and rides him out of the way. Vastardis(+1) fought the NT off. Hayes(+0.5) got enough of a kick on the OLB and Haskins is through, tripped up by the safety. Fox leaves the good angle (above) for a bad one (side-tight) then replays in pore-o-vision. Why can't you just show football on your football broadcast Fox?
M27	1st	10	Gun Twins	2-4-5	425 Over	2	Play-Action	6.5	RB Flat	Haskins	6	0.35
All day (wasn't kidding about the juice. Dax+1 for juice theft) as they're backing under the deep crossers so Cade takes the free yards. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
M33	2nd	4	Pistol FB Trips Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Over	1	Run	8	Split Trap	Haskins	3	-0.38
Too many times to the well? (RPS-1) they're slanting to this and waste Keegan(-1) but Vastardis(+1) gets the NG rocked back so Haskins(+1) can burrow through to set up 3rd and short.
M36	3rd	1	Pistol 12 Bunch	3-4-4	5-3 Under	1	Run	8	Zone Read Belly	Haskins	0	-0.76
McNamara(-1, read-1) has an OLB slanting under All(-1) on a full crash and gives. If it's not a read it's RPS-3 because no way can he block that guy, but who knows with this staff. That guy stuffs. The S that Cade wasn't reading either also gave no consideration for the keep. Also Stueber(-1) was supposed to get a wide 9 DE who discarded him.
Drive Notes: Punt. 20-10. 1 min 3rd Q. Don't mind not going for it here. It's weird how over this feels and we haven't even jumped around.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O33	1st	10	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	425 Under	1	Run	7	Reverse	Henning	-1	-0.80
McNamara(+0.5) shoulders an OLB but Henning(-2) is coming lazily, stepping inside instead of gunning to get around this. Cumong man your QB just hustled out there. Sainristil(-1) can't get a crack either.
O34	2nd	11	Gun Wk Tight	2-4-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	7	Deep Hitch	Wilson	13(Pen-13)	-0.90
Missed protection as Vastardis(-1) isn't paying attention as Filiaga(-1) passes a guy inside him off. McNamara escapes that guy and fires to an open Wilson(route-) downfield, who stepped out of bounds. (DO, 3, Prot 0/2, Vastardis-1, Filiaga-1, McNamara+2)
O34	3rd	11	Gun Empty	2-4-5	425 Under	2	Pass	5	Hitch	Wilson	4	-0.16
GUAK as M is running two hitches on the 30 and that’s the first read. He hits but no plus for this. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(48). 23-10, 12 min 4th Q. We have all their juice now. Dax intercepts and M starts where this one left off.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O35	1st	10	Gun 12 Bunch	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Run	8	Power Fold	Haskins	1	-0.53
Good downblock from Hayes(+1) but Wilson(-1) gets blown up by the S and Sanborn submarines a pulling Zinter(-2) in the backfield. Haskins(-1) doesn't bounce behind Wilson either despite a decent kick from All(+1) but burrowing goes nowhere with Sanborn on the ground. RPS-1 UW has an 8-man box for this.
O34	2nd	9	Pistol FB Twins	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Play-Action	8	TE Wheel	All	19	0.94
PA works (RPS+1) and Prot+2 lasts for several more beats as Cade surveys. He decides on All, who lined up at FB, down the sideline and puts it on the sideline where All can get some YAC too. (DO, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O15	1st	10	Pistol Str	2-4-5	425 Under	2	Run	6.5	Stretch Fold	Corum	2	-0.12
They're trying something, as both guards were trying to pull as the Ts tried to reach. Schoonmaker(+1) kicked the edge and moved him upfield but nobody's made it and Vastardis(-1) got discarded by Sanborn while Stueber(-1) tried and failed to cut the backside DT. Corum(+0.5) has to cut back into that guy and grinds out a little.
O13	2nd	8	Pistol 12 Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Under	2	Run	8	Counter Trey Z	Corum	0	-0.39
McCarthy(+1, read+1) makes the edge stay home, Keegan(-1) gets dodged by Sanborn, Honigford(-2) goes after the guy Zinter(+0.5) is kicking out. Swallowed.
O13	3rd	8	Pistol Trips Unbalanced	2-4-5	4-4 Over	1	Pass	8	Corner Fade	Johnson	13	3.02
House brought, picked up until Zinter(-2) whiffs on Chenal. Ball is out, perfect. After further review, DPJ's was good too. (DO, 1, Prot 1/3, Zinter-2, McNamara+2)
O3	2PC	Goal	Gun Str Bunch	3-4-4	Goal Line	NA	Pass	NA	ARO	Johnson	3	1.05
Tight coverage and this is his only option. It's on time and dead on balls accurate. (DO, 2, Prot n/a. McNamara+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(2PT). 31-10. 9 min 4th Q. Students clear out. Badgers are dead. Shall we go on? To the pain, then.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M33	1st	10	Pistol Trips Unbalanced	3-4-4	5-4 Odd	1	RPO	9	Stretch Fold/Bubble	Corum	7	0.70
Vastardis(+1) and Filiaga(+1) combo around the nose, but Keegan(-1) and Hayes(-1) did not so that gap's not there. Backside DT is late because Stueber(+1) cut him down so Corum(+1) snaps through that and spins through the DT's tackle for 2 bonus.
M40	2nd	3	Pistol Trips Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Run	7	Zone Read Belly	Corum	2	-0.75
Et tu JJ? McCarthy(-1, read-1) misses a keep vs a shuffler. Also Honigford(-2) got beat back and inside by Chenal. Otherwise well-blocked as Vastardis(+1) and Filiaga(+1) comboed the nose again and Keegan(+0.5) got control of his DT.
M42	3rd	1	Pistol Twins	3-4-4	5-3 Odd	1	Run	8	Dive	Haskins	2	1.11
Zinter(+1) and Stueber(+1) plow. Keegan(+0.5) got a LB. I swear someone is cackling as this happens: listen...what is that?
M44	1st	10	Pistol Twins Unbalanced	3-4-4	3-4 Over	1	QB Run	7	Arc Read Z Keeper	McCarthy	0	-1.16
McCarthy(+1, read+1) again gets a super duper shuffler and keeps. It's blocked until Baldwin(-2) is like "uh, they never keep" and stops blocking then watches this guy take out JJ. Man, that's a good way to dent your touches.
M44	2nd	10	Gun Wk	2-4-5	425 Over	2	Pass	6	Fly	Baldwin	56	5.48
Nevermind about that. Four-man rush picked up, McCarthy floats it right into the basket. (DO, 2, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 38-10. 5 min 4th Q. Next drive is Villari and Bowman so we're done here.

Who is this? He keeps flirting with me.

That’s 38 points on…dare I say…the best defense in the Big Ten.

I feel good about this, but in a very Andy Dufresne way. Like this win was carved through 8 feet of stone and the biological waste of 2012 Michigan State.

Yeah, Wisconsin’s defense was a very different challenge than anything Michigan’s come up against. I count 15 times I mentioned Sanborn, and 13 Chenals. Those are probably the best two middle linebackers in the Big Ten, and Sanborn looks like an All-American. And for big chunks of the game Michigan was going right at them.

But we didn’t use our face. We actually tried things like rock hammers and Rita Hayworth posters.

YES! And a passing game! But for the most part this was an equilibrium game punctuated by successful plays in high-leverage situations. A comprehensive list of turning point opportunities, showing the expected points added, and the EPA of what might have been.

• Converted the first 4th and short (+1.75 vs –4.15)
• Failed to convert the next one. (–4.28 vs +2.08)
• A 12-yard pass up the sideline to Wilson on 3rd and 14 (+1.39 vs –0.48)
• America’s rollout out to Wilson to convert the ensuing 4th and 2 (+2.16 vs –3.57)
• The flea flicker TD right after that. (+2.89 vs –0.84)
• Play-action on 2nd and 8 that Wilson dug out (+2.20 vs –0.74)
• A 3rd and 6 converted when McNamara hit Sainristil with a CB on his back (+2.29 vs –0.97)
• Converting a 4th and 1 on the 50 (+2.19 vs –4.29)
• The long fly to Wilson while taking a shot on 3rd and long (+3.30 vs –0.77)
• McCarthy’s sneak TD on 4th down after they didn’t review Haskins’s score (+2.74 vs –4.22)
• Back-breaking corner fade TD to Johnson (+3.02 vs –0.47)
• Victory cigar McCarthy to Baldwin TD (+5.81 vs –0.88)

Note that three of those were on the same drive that broke the early stalemate and put 7 points on a board that felt like it was going to read M00W for a long time.

In short, Michigan MADE PLAYS.

With the pass even.

It also felt like the wheels spun when not making plays.

Indeed. Here’s a drive list:

• TD drives of 67, 59, 59, and 35 yards featuring passes of 56, 38, 34, and 19 yards, respectively.
• Two three-and-out FGs after Wisconsin turnovers.
• 9-play, 36-yard 2-minute drill that ended on a FG.
• 5-play, 27-yard drive that punted on 4th and 2 from midfield.
• 6-play, 26-yard drive that ate 4 minutes when up 20-10 early in the 3rd Q.
• 8-play, 21-yard first drive that gets stuffed on 4th and 1 at the 46.
• 6-play, 16-yard drive crawling out of the shadow of our goalpost.
• 3-and-out when Cade can’t hit anything.

And the EP chart.

As was expected when facing a top-10 defense, Michigan had a hard time sustaining anything. They did however manage to tread water for chunks of the game and come out in the positive. The EP chart of the defense is going to look very different. Note there were no major sudden drops except the failed 4th down conversion.

Yeah, about that…

You want to have the complaints section at the top of a 38-10 (before garbage time) victory on the road that everyone wrote off as a loss pre-season because this same team demolished us in front of all our recruits last year?

How much did we run split zone?

Sigh, okay, we’ll get it out of the way, because I think overall we can be happy with this performance but should dig into the the big thing that annoys us.

That’s the Michigan spirit!

I am sick of split zone, especially because opponents are RPSing it to death, and especially, ESPECIALLY in short situations when they’re RPS-ing it to death, and ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY because a simple dive in those situations always works.

Contrast that with the 4th and 1 that got stuffed on their first drive. Note where the DE is lined up relative to Ryan Hayes (#76, the LT)

There was some argument on the interwebs after the game about whether our TEs and Ts should be letting slanters cross their faces, but there’s no cross here. This guy lined up inside of Hayes, slanted further inside of Hayes, and somehow the whole play relies on Hayes keeping that guy outside?

That wasn’t a one-off. This was the 3rd and 1 that resulted in a punt on 4th and 1. Hayes has a great initial punch. He’s using all of his length to get across. Also for some reason tiny AJ Henning is supposed to prevent top-250 LB Noah Herbig from crashing in there.

Reach blocks are awesome and when you can pull one off it usually means you’ve emptied a gap of defenders and a big gash is coming. When you see a normal running play suddenly resolve into an RB flashing through everybody chances are somebody got a reach block. But counting on one, when you know the defense’s tendency is to slant that way, is ludicrous unless you’ve got David Molk versus a particularly slow nose or something. Matt Henningsen is a walk-on and Wisconsin’s previous opponents didn’t attack him, but it was clear in this game that the days when he was a cyan were in 2018.

This was Michigan’s first issue on the drive when they got the ball on the five and had to settle for a field goal.

This play was actually an RPO designed to take away the main thing Rutgers was doing to blow up split zone: blitzing the safety off the edge.

If that free safety comes down he gets caught behind the Johnson curl and Wilson founds a Kogerland franchise. Wisconsin had a more conventional way to beat split zone on: a slant/gap exchange. This time the slanting tackle did line up outside of Hayes, but that’s okay as long as he gets pushed downfield and can’t get inside of Keegan. The problem is Wisconsin has overloaded the backside: there’s a WOLB, DT, and two LBs for Hayes, Keegan, Haskins, and All. In a goal line situation you’re bound to have extra guys because the safeties get involved, but the safeties aren’t really part of the equation on this play.

The tradeoff is the frontside is now the NG, the other DT, a CB, and the SAM versus Vastardis, Zinter, Stueber, and Henning: a hat for a hat. Wisconsin got around that by slanting the DL and then having them push upfield. Since Michigan wants to attack the backside, the blockers are okay with this: as long as you’re sealed. But that’s the trap: if those DL are getting upfield there’s no bounce.

The frontside, where Michigan has numbers, is cut off, and the best Haskins can do is try to shoot behind Vastardis and hope the slant Hayes is riding and the free WLB can’t get him. He gets the maximum two yards.

Overloading the backside was the Badgers’ plan for split zone all day, and Michigan kept trying to run it anyways, resulting in things like asking Joel Honigford to block both Sanborn and Chenal.

Michigan has been using Split this year as its base—the way most teams use inside zone—because it plays to our strengths. The tackles are good blockers, and our Y tight ends are decent at picking off linebackers, and Erick All is excellent at kickout blocks. However it’s gotten to the point now where they can’t run it—especially in short situations—effectively because defenses are prepped for it and able to tee off.

The reason for this, I think, is Michigan can’t run the normal counters to it. Here’s a not at all comprehensive list of things that base Split Zone teams run to keep defenses honest against it:

• Arc Read. (But our QB won’t keep it.)
• Zone Read. (But our QB won’t keep it.)
• Split the RB out and run the QB. (Lol right.)
• Split flow. This is a play-action pass that turns all those crossers into a levels read. Michigan has only run this as an RPO screen to the TE, which doesn’t work against zone.
• RPOs that attack behind the LBs as they overplay the run.

I think Arc Read is still in the playbook, but they still can’t get McNamara to keep no matter how good the look.

And there’s simple zone read, but McNamara is the latest Harbaugh starter who’s blowing them. This 3rd and 1 play is supposed to get Wisconsin to overplay the other side of the formation based on Michigan’s tendency to swing meat across, then run where all the meat started in the first place:

Pre-snap notice that Erick All is pointing at the OLB lining up inside of him.

He’s also looking at McNamara. Something is being communicated, and the most sensical thing that could be is “RIGHT HERE CADE. THIS GUY IS COMING INSIDE OF ME. READ THAT!” He doesn’t read that.

And when All gets up after that he’s like “What the HELL man?”

That might not have been the worst missed read. The “arc read” look I showed above was not an Arc Read but an RPO. Watch Henning, the slot receiver (#3, second guy down from the top):

McNamara made the “read” super-quick, not even waiting to see what the edge was doing (what he’s doing is crashing so hard he’s toppling Erick All at the hash mark) because his read is the nickel replacing the edge behind the OLB. None of these guys are in any position to stop Henning on a slant. Nobody is. And what grates so hard is THIS IS THE READ THAT THEY CALLED.

McNamara blows his reads with such regularity that the defense can count on him to not get the ball to the wide open AJ Henning behind them. In this way the starting quarterback has once again become a major drag on the run game. Defenses can run willy-nilly at the edges Michigan wants to attack, and either deliver an unblocked extra man to the RB at the line of scrimmage or better yet an unblocked, unread edge defender directly into the backfield.

Who’s responsible? If he wasn’t the first bad reader since 2015 I would say he’s probably just not good at those (Denard wasn’t either). If he was the second I might blame the QB coach. Since this has been passed down three generations now, it’s got to be that Jim Harbaugh doesn’t know how to coach this, and nobody is allowed to help. Best guess is it takes a lot of practice to get it down, and they’re trying to sneak it in while working on all the checks and route combinations. I wish they could find someone who’s had success teaching various guys how to get these reads right with the least amount of practice time, because it’s important to their offense to have a punishment for teams that want to tee off on the main thing they run.

Michigan does have one counter to split zone that worked, or should have worked but for Corum missing a couple of bounces. It’s similar to the botched zone read above except everyone is  blocked. Because the defense is so used to Michigan crossing their face when there’s a TE off the line of scrimmage like this, actually running where all the meat is stacked gets them attacking the wrong way:

Twice Michigan ran this, Wilson caught that blitzing safety inside on a slant sellout to the other side, and Corum didn’t bounce either behind him.

But that should be there again and I’m sure they’ll practice it. It’s easier to teach a running back to bounce than it is to train one to keep going downfield when he’s got all of high school muscle memory telling him he can get around the guy trying to set an edge on him. Note too that Michigan was running this out of an old school Single-Wing, inviting an 8-man box. They wanted to get that safety involved in the run, figuring for every three runs that get stuffed one might break through and then there’s only one deep safety (versus Corum or Haskins) to run it down. When you’re facing a front seven that tends to stuff three in four plays regardless of formation, might as well gamble your WR wrecks a safety in the box rather than trust your TEs to wreck an ILB.

Michigan also brought back a trap version of split zone from the era when we got cool new Harbaugh things every week:

They debuted that play in 2015 against Maryland and I remember being aggrieved at the time that they were wasting such a cool trick when up 28-0 late in the 4th Q on some bad Terps. Instead of trapping the edge defender, this does it to a DT and then runs out the frontside. This too nearly delivered a running back to the clear.

They can also still run zone reads with the backup quarterback.

McCarthy came in and immediately ran a zone read. Wisconsin ran a play called “Michigan’s backup QB is in; they’re running a zone read!” I was mad in a different way about this play, because watch Schoonmaker (the offset TE on the bottom of the formation) as the LB who would be covering him through the slot ran by on his way to attack the run instead.

I don’t know if this is a Sun Tzu thing or whatever, but you get few moments in war when your enemy is certain you’re going to do something and you are certain he’s going to do something about it, and that’s your opportunity to do something else. This moment could have gone on tape as a clever way to mess with Wisconsin’s 8-in-the-box, hell-for-leather response to a new quarterback at the top of the new half. The same information—whoa Schoonmaker’s going to be open—is going to be processed by anyone who sees this film, and there will be an answer when/if Michigan tries it.

This was the moment to run a pop pass to the tight end, which play was invented then practiced into every 2010s zone read team’s zone read playbook specifically to stop this kind of anti-zone read behavior. We haven’t downloaded that yet because we only got the “read a guy AFTER the snap” part down this week, and then only with the backup, again. It is epically frustrating to watch Michigan trial and error its way through a decade of coaching clinics.

McCarthy kept on another where he had to outflank a hard-charging safety and got decent yardage. That’s nice, but I think back to all the runs into unblocked SAMs it took for us to get here and question why this war was necessary.

Ah, so you are ready to blacklist the communist saboteur McNamara? I have here in my hand a list of 205 plays that were made known to the Offensive Coordinator…

Let’s not be driven by fear of crashing edges into an age of unreason. If anything McNamara solidified his role as a starter in this game. People throw around the term “game manager” to mean a quarterback who doesn’t screw up, but in a game where you’re scoring all your points on turnovers and four big plays, the quarterback who isn’t going to generate a crushing bad play is king. Like most Michigan-Wisconsin games this was a clash of medieval shield walls with a few sorties into enemy lines that became a rout after one side broke. That side could have been Michigan. Remember when they didn’t take a safety?

Or when they didn’t take a sack?

That’s enough, when combined with his previous work, to say McNamara is skilled at getting himself out of trouble. Unfortunately once he’s out of the pocket, his speed is somewhere between a 1 and a 2 on the Naverre-Denard scale.

I have put many QBs on this scale, and that right there is slow. That has to be the main reason they don’t have him keep on zone reads, though the edges are so open sometimes this shouldn’t even matter.

By my reckoning he also only missed one pre-snap read (when Donovan Edwards was going to be open under a big cushion on the far backside). Not once did he look confused about what he wanted to do with the ball, and things broke down he knew where his checkdown was and got the ball out. Michigan still does not have a turnover in non-garbage time. The game is being managed, and there’s been no indication from the short bursts of McCarthy that the true freshman can do the same.

Also the passing got better over the course of the game. Like a lot better?

How much better?

Well here let me show you a Hennech…I just walked into that one.

Like a Michigan quarterback into a bad zone read.

McMcChart.

CADE MCNAMARA

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6
Wisconsin	6	13	1		1	2		1	1	4x	2x		71%	+10.5		2/3	1/2

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3
Wisconsin	1												100%	+2		2/2	4/6

Three of ten on zone reads in three games isn’t very good is it?

It’s worse when you consider two of the correct ones were give reads that were correct only in that keeping wasn’t any better of an option than giving.

And yet you gave McNamara a 71% downfield success rating and a similar +/- to his game against NIU. You DO love game management, you Communist!

The thing about planned economies is no human or group of humans can be good enough to run one. People think they want stability, but we’re clever, opportunistic beasts who thrive on variance and adaptation. McNamara wasn’t very stable in the early going, but seemed to warm up the more opportunities he was given. He nailed the flea flicker.

There was this zing to Sainristil:

And the good wheel to All:

And the fade to Johnson:

This game didn’t need a game manager; it needed a quarterback who cash in on a big play when Wisconsin stacked the box and overplayed play-action, and this game was more evidence that McNamara’s deep ball is deadly. Even the throw into double coverage when they just went balls-for-sky to Johnson was in a spot where Johnson was going to get the first crack at it. That was a two-man route from an unbalanced formation, and didn’t bother me that much because if it’s intercepted it’s just a punt in a game where field position was a big deal—it was also a reminder that we’re willing to release the dragon. They don’t have a Braylon, but they have a quarterback who can Braylonball if necessary, which means Michigan has a chance in every game.

Also if there were any questions about his toughness after he took a headshot against Rutgers and lost his aim, those are gone. He took a lot of body shots in this game, and got up better. He also turned plays where he was going to take a body shot into opportunities for his attacker to stand up to bad news.

 

The “Game Manager” thing is overplayed, especially after a game where he was investing deep capital and exploring new profit sectors with risky ventures. He’s still a pre-snap reading socialist, and a bad zone reader, but this was a Henne-level performance against the #3 defense to SP+. I believe if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine, we are not quarterbacked by fearful men.

But McCarthy..

There was one pass.

I was happy with the role they gave him. If he can cover McNamara’s problems in zone reads when Michigan has a lead and wants to churn down the field or run up the score with their backs, having a backup who can add that element is valuable. Maybe have him throw to Baldwin before the game’s out of reach.

You sided with Cade on some early throws on the podcast. Brian was with the receivers. Who was more right?

 

We were in agreement on a lot of them. For example there’s only one place to put this ball that could possibly give Wisconsin any chance to break it up:

You can zing that to the 30 for a first down and let him try to break a few tackles. You can also float it to the 20 and Edwards will be behind the defense already. The 25 was the only place this ball could have gone that this safety could have done anything about. That’s on the quarterback.

We still disagreed on the slant to Johnson; I blame Fox’s weird-ass camera angle for making it hard to guess where the ball actually was. I still couldn’t decide so I marked that one Marginal. Brian was right about the Baldwin one on the first play. That doesn’t mean the WRs are totally absolved.

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	2	1/4	1/2	1/1		3	1/6	3/5	6/6
Baldwin			1/2	0/1			0/1	4/5	2/3
Sainristil		1/1		1/1			1/4		4/4
Henning						2		1/2	1/1
Wilson	1	2/2		4/5		1	2/3	1/1	6/7
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
Anthony
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All			1/1	2/2		1	0/2	3/3	5/5
Schoonmaker				2/2		2	0/1		2/2
Honigford						2		0/1
Seltzer								0/1
Hibner
Corum	1	1/1				1	1/1	1/1	7/8
Haskins				1/1					2/2
Edwards		0/1				1	0/1		1/1

Routes: Wilson+2/-, Sainristil-, Schoonmaker-, Baldwin-

Brian and I and Joel Klatt blamed Baldwin for overrunning a zone spot on the play that ended Michigan’s two-minute drill and set up Wisconsin’s 20-second fire drill at the end of the first half. The other complaint I had was receivers running third down routes short of the sticks, most egregiously this by Sainristil:

He has to go up for the pass because McNamara is expecting him to sit a little deeper. He didn’t need the cushion to avoid the defender either. Schoonmaker made the same mistake on the same drive, and this led to the two early 4th and 1 attempts. The Wilson minus was for stepping out of bounds of course. That was offset by the rest of his day.

Yeah, how ‘bout a nice Hawai’ian Ronnie Bell?

Roman Wilson. Sir. How do you do?

His other “circus” catch was digging out a 17-yard throw that was in the dirt, and a friend who went to the game informed me that it was better than I realize because Wilson was way downfield and it was a surprise that he was able to get back to that.

As recently as the Washington game I was down on Wilson (for this year at least) because they were trying to use him in the Bell role and he wasn’t getting his blocks off nor getting open versus press coverage. The Wisconsin corners aren’t on the same level as the NFL train that runs through Seattle, but Faion Hicks is good enough that the fact he played with Bush/Gil/Metellus at Flanagan and Michigan whiffed on most of their 2017 and 2018 cornerback classes still rankles.

Also no screens again.

That’s not a huge deal. The greater question is “Does Michigan threaten the edge enough to deter defenses from using edge defenders in the box?” and Michigan had threats, namely “a passing game.” This was the slant to Johnson that I marked “MA” discussed above. The more interesting thing about it however is why it was open. Corum is running a flare to that side of the field, and the OLB guarding that zone has no illusions about which threat he needs to focus on.

Also Wisconsin stacked the box with eight guys on the regular, and Michigan was asking them to do it so they could block the safety and deliver a running back to the secondary. None popped, but that was the right way to attack the #3 defense in the country: you’re probably not going to get anything sustainable against them, so make sure when you hit there are points.

Speaking of sustainability, what did they do to our beautiful running game?

That’s best explained by the

Chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	2.5	3	-0.5	So he's not a Jedi who can stop slants under him.
Keegan	5	7.5	-2.5	Still rotating, still making good pickups, still misses some.
Vastardis	10.5	7	+3.5	The usual. Found UW's NG remarkably moveable.
Filiaga	2	3.5	-1.5	Won back 2 points at RG on Vastardis combos
Stueber	8.5	7.5	+1	Beat by some agile LBs but caved some DTs.
Zinter	7	6.5	+0.5	Having a mashing day until two bad plays at the end.
T.Jones			0	DNC
Crippen			0	DNP
Barnhart			0	DNP
Atteberry			0	DNP
All	5	2	+3	Mostly kicks on OLBs but positive day vs THOSE LBs is pretty good.
Honigford	4.5	7.5	-3	Missed some assignments, got Chenal'd, got some revenge.
Schoonmaker	3	11	-8	Got Sanborn'd. Blew a couple of assignments too.
Seltzer			0	DNP
Hibner			0	DNP
TOTAL	48	55.5	-7.5	Against one of the best run defenses in the country. Eh.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	1.5	6	-4.5	Read issues are a major drag on the run game.
McCarthy	4	2	+2	Something of a run threat.
Villari			0	DNC
Haskins	5.5	1	+4.5	Always got 2+. Owed a TD.
Corum	5	3	+2	Wouldn't cut behind Wilson on the folds. Gonna remember the Hart.
Edwards			0	DNC. Drop not his fault.
Dunlap			0	DNP
TOTAL	16	12	+4	Haskins made chicken salad. McN reads are a problem.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C.Johnson		2	-2	Wisconsin safeties are hard to pick off.
Sainristil	1	3	-2	Ditto. Might have deserved more for blocks happening offscreen.
Henning	1	5	-4	Willing, not able. Use your QB's block please.
Wilson	4	1	+3	Aloha Ronnie Bell 2.0.
Baldwin		2.5	-2.5	Gave up on a block late.
Anthony			0	DNC
TOTAL	6	13.5	-7.5	When you use a lot of WRs as tight ends vs Wisconsin.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	34	46	74%	Vastardis-3, Zinter-2, Keegs-2, Honig-1, Hayes-1, TEAM-1
RPS	20	24	-4	Was up big early, turtling with a lead again.

No joke: I was sure you were going to put Sanborn on here.

He is all over this, metaphysically, plus Chenal and Herbig and Burks. The entire offensive line score is a variant on this two-play +/- for Stueber:

• Stueber(+2) makes an American cheese mess worthy of my 4-year-old out of this UW DT.
• Stueber(-2) gets an LB going inside him and can't cut off this guy's pursuit.

Tally that up and everybody’s within +/- 4 of break even except a few guys who uncoincidentally spent much of the day going against the linebackers. Quick glance back at the defensive FFFF chart (keeping in mind Benton wasn’t on the field most plays):

Checks out.

Is that what happened to my beautiful tight ends?

Yes; in fact this was where I felt Wisconsin’s stars had the most impact. Michigan’s offense wants its inline tight ends to pin the linebackers inside so linemen and other tight ends (and uh…receivers) can kick out the edges. That meant a lot of the Sanborn/Chenal work fell to Honigford and Schoonmaker. I had to give them negatives, but keep it in context: we haven’t really seen anyone do this to Schoonmaker yet:

 

Many times a play that usually goes well for Michigan would have no space to operate, and when I went through everybody to figure out where it broke down, the answer was “the guy responsible for #57.”

That’s it? Are you grading Wisconsin or Michigan here?

The guy who had an eye-opening game on the ground was Vastardis, because when Benton was on the field, he got moved. It’s hard to see because the Fox director loves the “watch the quarterback stand in the backfield because you cant see anything else” angle but the reason it looks like there’s a gap here for a second was Vastardis violently wrenching Benton out of the gap:

Vastardis was a consistent plus on the ground no matter whom he went against (rarely a linebacker).

On the other hand he had several pass protection issues, and it might have been worse since there was a TEAM minus which is usually a center issue, and a –2 that he split with Filiaga when the latter pointed at a guy he clearly believed Vastardis would pick up, while the center’s attention was elsewhere. I could have probably put that fully on Vastardis, but Filiaga didn’t have anyone to block either and old OL guys hate it when you don’t look for work. The protection rate of 70% is in Not Good territory on its own, and this is a team that runs all the time, so the context makes that even worse. This was our concern with Vastardis going into the season, and it’s not the kind of thing that can stay sidelined for a whole season if it’s a real issue.

Stueber and Zinter were also moving the other DT with regularity.

 

Where’d the running backs go?

Once again, the issues with the greater running game contributed to a lack of opportunities for the running backs to do much of anything. Blake Corum got his highlight by doing the Hart after McNamara wiggled out of a sack in the endzone:

And Hassan Haskins scored a touchdown that would have been good had they reviewed it, but wasn’t called on the field because everybody had already written the play off in their minds when there was an army of Badgers camped out in front of him at the three-yard line.

Your hot take was the O’Neill crew officiated a great game. How’d that hold up?

I’m always going to find more in a painstaking review than a live watch or a Sunday morning replay. Also this is Wisconsin, which program is up there with Dantonio’s MSU, the early 2000s Calgary Flames, and First Act Gordon Bombay in terms of making ref baiting part of their overall strategy. In particular they have several tricks for making you false start—some of which they caused to be legislated—and they’re taught to snap their heads back when you block them near the neck to draw a hands to the face call.

I went in with low hopes for that in a game on the road versus the most gullible officials in sports. There were always going to be moments, and there were moments:

But overall it wasn’t so bad, and IIRC Michigan got away with appropriate handsiness on defense to make up for it. This and a real, play-long hands to the face to Vastardis were the only things I would expect the head coach to be in their ears about. Two bad blown calls on 80 snaps is way above this crew’s standard rate. They also did the O’Neill Usual thing where they don’t make a call when review can fix it. That was annoying when Haskins probably scored here.

If you’re watching that and saying “Did he score or not?” and you’re just trying to be closest to right, obviously you choose “Scored.” If it’s going to review where the standard is “Can you prove without a shadow of a doubt that the referee got the call wrong on the field?” it’s 50-50. I wish we didn’t treat the call on the field with a standard of justice invented by Enlightenment lawyers who believed falsely imprisoning someone is 100x worse than letting a criminal walk, but that’s a general statement about college officiating, and not relevant to this play because Michigan didn’t even let it get to review.

Take: still kickin’. We’ll see on the defensive side.

Heroes?

Roman Wilson broke out as a blocker and receiver. Hassan Haskins was often the difference between 2nd and 7, and 2nd and 5. Cade McNamara found his rhythm as a passer, was lethal after a slow start.

Maybe not so heroic?

Schoonmaker is not, in fact, good enough to handle one of the best LBs in the country. Vastardis in pass pro has me worried. Chuck Filiaga is good at combos but the rare times Michigan misses blocking assignments usually involve him. Ryan Hayes cannot, in fact, teleport three gaps in to cut off a slanter who started inside him, but it would be a lot cooler if he was. Cade McNamara on zone reads.

What does it mean for Nebraska and beyond?

Cade is the starter. Also, he can play. Still a bit wobbly but we said there would be a time when Michigan needed its quarterback to step up and win them a game, and he got them there against the No.3 defense in the country. I wouldn’t take McNamara into a shootout, but he can break the stalemate of a defensive battle, and when he screws up he does so relatively harmlessly. No sacks. No turnovers.

The zone read is an exotic gimmick for unserious football teams and freshman backups. McNamara, like all Harbaugh QBs, is a drag on the run game because he can’t make a correct zone read and they need those to run their base stuff.

The running game needs a new trick. Defenses know they want to run off-tackle with big kickouts. The wham play was cool. Time to add more traps with other pullers to diversify.

Don’t let edges start inside and slant inside. It’s one thing to say don’t let a guy cross your face, quite another to ask a guy to do what Hayes and All and Schoonmaker were asked to do. Maybe go back to outside zone, or

Michigan’s go-to play in short situations should be a Haskins dive behind Stueber and Zinter while someone makes animal noises.

No more split zones. Down G only under goalpost. Sneaks are okay too. No more split zone. Did you hear me about the split zone?

They probably didn’t respect Rutgers. Long bombs and short stuff and going for it on 4th down was a rational and intelligent game plan given the opponent’s and offense’s relative strengths. Michigan had Wisconsin’s most obvious adjustments (e.g. going to a 5-3 one-high) anticipated and picked their battles.

This wasn’t a great offensive game, just a gutsy one. Michigan capitalized in high-leverage situations, minus a couple of drives that started on turnovers. Down to down they were bottled up like everyone else Wisconsin played. That defense was legit.

Might have something in Wilson. Bailed out his QB twice, blocked like he meant it. Two weeks ago he was getting jammed to death and standing around in running lanes.