RIP. Sad week for the Michigan family, as Mister Simpson and Ryan Mallett both died far too young. Mallett drowned off the Gulf Coast—apparently one of 11 people to lose their lives to rip currents in the past two weeks. Simpson's death is under investigation by the Cincinnati police department. Keep their families in your thoughts.

Toe meets leather. Warde Manuel asserts that the changed Big Ten format will not affect The Game:

“The Game will remain at noon in the regular season when we play,” Manuel said on “In the Trenches,” a podcast produced by Michigan Athletics. “We’ve had great fan enjoyment of that game, and being at noon. Great television response in terms of numbers of people who who watch that game. I think there’s no need to move it to any other time. It’s really been become a part of that series and people sort of set their calendar, set their clock to watch that game at noon on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.”

This of course sets up the unappetizing possibility of an immediate rematch for the Big Ten championship, but aside from some wacky bloggers making wacky, impossible suggestions—Seth and I are specialists in this department—I'm not sure what the alternative is.

Also note the assumption that the Game will be at noon, which is technically not guaranteed—Fox could choose another Big Ten game for their #1 overall pick—but is about as certain as anything in this crazy mixed-up world.

Math wins. There used to be a cottage industry around here: fourth-down clucking. We still mention it from time to time, but the section on the podcast that used to mention unforgivable Brady Hoke decisions has mostly been reduced to things like "ehhh… that's really close." That's because college football has gotten a lot more aggressive on fourth down. Bill Connelly provides a graph:

Since there are occasional correct punt decisions even in the top two categories college coaches are probably approaching optimal. I also enjoy the big spike in 2020, as the college football collective decided that nothing mattered lol. Then they were like "oh… that worked" and kept going for it.

Michigan was not on the leading edge—you probably know this—but chose its spots superbly:

Meanwhile, Michigan went for it just 21% of the time (87th) but picked its spots well and profited by 5.3 points per game (ninth). Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines converted 17 of 21 attempts (81%, second in FBS) and scored 81 points after those 17 conversions. Opponents scored only seven points after the four failures.

No decision was more important, bold, and correct than Michigan going for it on fourth and one in their own territory early in the third quarter against OSU. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes:

OSU's power success rate last year: 117th.https://t.co/yCiOphiKq4

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) June 22, 2023

I imagine this is high on the list of offseason priorities in Columbus. It'll be interesting to see how that number changes this year. If it stays stubbornly low it could be a sign that Ryan Day's just a finesse kind of guy.

[After THE JUMP: yeahhhh we're just going to ignore you thanks]

The rerank. The Athletic's Max Olson re-ranks the 2019 recruiting classes. 2019 was the Dax Hill-Chris Hinton-Charbonnet-Mazi Smith class, and Michigan slides well up from their original ranking of 8th:

3. Michigan

Adjusted average: 2.85
Class rank in 2019: 8th
Four-year record: 36-11
Attrition: 44%
Top signees: DB Daxton Hill, DL Mazi Smith, LB David Ojabo, DB DJ Turner, DL Mike Morris

Jim Harbaugh and his coaches found 13 starters and eight All-Big Ten players in this class, hitting on a remarkable number of NFL-caliber defenders who helped lead the run to back-to-back Big Ten championships and College Football Playoff appearances. Smith joined Hill in becoming a first-round draft pick this spring, while Ojabo and Turner were both second-round selections. Morris and defensive lineman Mike Danna also got drafted, and D-lineman Christopher Hinton is playing in the league as well.

The Wolverines’ offensive haul in 2019 included quarterback Cade McNamara, offensive linemen Trevor Keegan and Karsen Barnhart, wide receiver Cornelius Johnson and running back Zach Charbonnet, who became the best back in the Pac-12 after transferring to UCLA.

Michigan's attrition rate is fairly standard, FWIW. Alabama had a whopping 61% attrition rate and still slid in just behind Michigan at #4. Must be nice.

FWIW, that was the class where Michigan missed on the top three kids in state, causing much panic on the Michigan internet and rejoicing in East Lansing. Not so fast, my friend: The in-state top three of Logan Brown (UW), Devontae Dobbs, and Julian Barnett (both MSU) all failed to make an impact. Mazi Smith, #4, just got drafted in the first round.

Just find one corner. Michigan's other CB slots are in excellent hands:

Highest graded returning Big Ten Cornerbacks pic.twitter.com/vwaC2C3C70

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 23, 2023

I don't see any OSU players on that list.

Let them enforce it. The NCAA's trying to keep the lid on NIL business, for all the good that will do:

These new rules will force schools in states like Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas to choose between maximizing what their state laws permit and what the NCAA allows.

— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) June 27, 2023

Texas A&M's AD has directly stated they're ignoring this: "The state law is going to govern how we do business." In this new era of anything goes that's not a huge surprise; what is the NCAA going to do about it? As mentioned repeatedly around here, scholarship limits are more or less fictional. They really do not want to issue postseason bans. Does anyone care about vacated wins? No. Is a federal court going to side with the NCAA? Not likely.

This is all futile posturing by people with jobs that are rapidly becoming obsolescent.

FWIW, a bill that somewhat liberalizes Michigan's NIL law has been introduced in the state legislature. MLive's summary:

It seeks to expand Michigan’s existing NIL law for college athletes to allow colleges to partner with third-party licensees and help athletes better utilize NIL opportunities.

“The NIL legislation that we are seeking promotes fairness and equity among student-athletes,” sponsoring Rep. Angela Witwer, D-Delta Township, told the higher ed committee.

HB 4319 would also encourage colleges to offer financial literacy, brand management and life skills programming for athletes.

That's not at the level of the more aggressive state legislatures but seems like a good change.

Obligatory Berhalter take. I endorsed his return after the World Cup and nothing in the intervening six months did much to change my opinion. ESPN's Ryan O'Hanlon has a briefer version:

At the 2022 World Cup, there was a team that didn't allow a single goal from open play in the group stages. They drew with -- and outshot -- England. And they didn't lose a game in the opening round: one win and two draws.

Sure, they lost in the round of 16, but it came against the Netherlands -- a traditional world power -- and this team had almost 60% of the possession in that match, also outshooting the Dutch 17 to 11. A couple of bounces go differently, and this team is playing Lionel Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals.

Now, this team didn't even qualify for the previous World Cup. And at the World Cup before that, this team went out in a match against Belgium that was so lopsided that the literal president of this team's country called this team's goalkeeper to congratulate him on all of the saves he'd made.

At every previous World Cup this team had qualified for, they'd rolled out the traditional international-underdog playbook: defend well, wait for set pieces and counterattacks. Supporters, who had been both pining for more modern tactics and to see their team perform at the World Cup, got it all in Qatar: this team played in a new way, and this team got results.

So, when this team announced that it was rehiring the same manager that guided this team at the World Cup, everyone rejoiced ... right? You simple, silly person. This is the United States men's national team: we don't rejoice here, buddy!

The #BerhalterOUT crew on twitter—which some wag just dubbed the QSMNT—is losing their minds, but given the realistic prospects out there I'm more or less content to continue with a coach who had the US playing on the front foot with a very young team who seems to be thrilled to have him back.

TBH unless you get an extreme outlier like Klinsmann, an international manager is not really going to move the needle much. As long as Berhalter is able to smooth things over with Reyna, which is likely, there's no reason to not continue to build on what was an encouraging cycle.

Etc.: Talking with Adam Fantilli just before this year's NHL draft. Men's tennis coach bounces for Florida. Manuel talking about NIL. Fantilli endorses Gavin Brindley. Alan Bowman's going to start for Okie State.