Thursday Recruitin' Leaves A Trail
Ahmir Mitchell Visiting Saturday
Saturday I will be back at Michigan for a visit with Mom !!! #GoBlue
— Ahmir_SoDevoted (@TheDeuce_2_Nice) July 21, 2015
Four-star NJ WR Ahmir Mitchell, Michigan's top target at the position, will visit campus with his mother this Saturday. This is an opportunity for M to seal up a commitment; as Tim Sullivan outlines at The Wolverine, Mitchell will visit Ohio State the day prior, and unless they make a much stronger push than they have of late then the Wolverines will continue to be in the driver's seat ($):
Mitchell will be in the Midwest to take part in Ohio State's Friday Night Lights elite camp Friday evening, and will make the trip up to Ann Arbor afterwards. He has previously named the Wolverines and Buckeyes his top two (with Notre Dame not far behind), though it's unclear whether OSU would push for a commitment - or potentially, even accept one - at this time.
"He's giving Ohio State their last shot for Friday Night Lights," said Rivals.com Mid-Atlantic Recruiting Analyst Adam Friedman. "He will be at Michigan for the Barbecue. I think he's trying to figure out where he does stand with a couple schools."
The presence of Mitchell's mother is also a sign things could be winding down. While the Buckeyes are a threat, it's unclear whether they'll make a strong push for Mitchell, as they're heavily involved with a few other WR targets they seem to have higher on their board. If that remains the case, Michigan is the heavy favorite.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
Xavier Kelly Deciding Tomorrow
Top-100 KS DE Xavier Kelly, another of Michigan's top overall targets, announced that he will make his decision tommorrow. The outlook?
Uh, not so good. Even if Kelly surprises and doesn't pick Clemson, Georgia looks like the next-biggest threat.
BBQ Visitors: Gary, Corley, "Pipeline 9" and More
The BBQ at the Big House on August 2nd is quickly turning into a major event. 247's Steve Wiltfong reported this week that five-star NJ DT Rashan Gary plans to be in attendance as long as an ACT prep class doesn't interfere with his schedule ($). That would mark Gary's third visit to Ann Arbor.
After previously reporting that a group of Detroit King prospects including LaVert Hill and Ambry Thomas would be at the BBQ, 247's Steve Lorenz confirmed that top-100 WR Donnie Corley will be there, as well. Also planning to attend are all nine 2017 in-state prospects holding an offer:
Five-star WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
Four-star LB Josh Ross
Four-star CB Ambry Thomas
Four-star DE/LB Corey Malone-Hatcher
Four-star OL JaRaymond Hall
Four-star safety Jaylen Kelly-Powell
Three-star WR K.J. Hamler
Three-star ATH Allen Stritzinger
Three-star TE commit Carter DunawayMichigan is the 247Sports Crystal Ball leader for Ross, Malone-Hatcher, Hall, Kelly-Powell and Stritzinger and are serious contenders for all nine prospects.
They've been dubbed the "Pipeline 9" by the coaching staff.
Three-star MD CB Sir Patrick Scott will be there and he wouldn't rule out the possibility of a commitment when talking to The Wolverine's Brandon Brown ($):
"I guess we'll just have to find out when I get to Michigan," he said about a commitment with a laugh. "I'm really serious about Michigan though. I have visited Penn State, Michigan State, and Wake Forest and I really do like Wake Forest. I have a really good relationship with the coaches there so I don't know.
"I'm not sure where else I might visit soon but we'll see. I have thought about my officials and I had some schools in mind but I still have to discuss that with my family and my coaches and see how this visit to Michigan goes."
With Tony Butler planning to extend his recruitment into December, Scott has a good opportunity to join the class before spots fill up.
Another prospect who could be closing in on a decision is three-star NC LB Jonathan Smith, who told The Wolverine's Jacey Zembal he wants to make a choice before the season, and prior to making that decision he needs to see Michigan and Notre Dame ($). Per Lorenz, Smith will make his trip to Ann Arbor for the BBQ. North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech are also in contention.
A couple of Alabama prospects are also expected to attend the BBQ. TMI's Josh Newkirk reports Florence High teammates three-star 2016 ILB Erroll Thompson and four-star 2017 S J'Marick Woods will see Ann Arbor for the first time ($).
There will be more prospects to add to the list before August. As it stands, the BBQ should already be at the center of an eventful weekend.
More 2016 Updates
Rumors that David Reese would wind up elsewhere swirled amid visits to Louisville and Notre Dame, but according to Brandon Brown, Michigan doesn't have much to worry about; Reese's father told Brown his son will be in the class—yes, as a linebacker—and they're working on getting him enrolled early ($).
The feeling around here is three-star FL LB Jonathan Jones will end up heading elsewhere despite Michigan being his long-stated top school. Jones told Sam Webb that he plans to decide after taking all five of his official visits, with Michigan still holding the top spot:
“(The Wolverines) are still #1,” said Jones. “I actually changed up my top three. My top three is Michigan, Duke and Notre Dame. Michigan, I stayed there for a good four or five days. I met a lot of knew family there. They’re definitely looking good.”
Webb also spoke to Jones' father, whose comments gave off a decidedly different impression ($):
It’s going to go about how far he is from us because of course we want to attend his games, weather conditions. I’m trying to explain to him, if you’re up north, you can’t just put on a pair of slip and slides and some shorts and go outside. You have to fully dress. Is he going to be happy, can he adapt up there in the north or wherever he goes, can he adapt? You have to realize this is where you’re going to live for four years. We try to give him a little bit of leeway but as parents, we can tell him about different things in life, but we try to give him a few nuggets. If you go too far, we may not be able to see you as often as we would like.
Jones may like Michigan but it doesn't sound like his parents are fully on board. With open spots dwindling, I'd be surprised if he ended up in the class.
Lorenz reports top-100 CA CB Lamar Jackson will take an official visit for the Michigan State game. Michigan should also get an official visit from four-star CA DT Boss Tagaloa, per Newkirk and Webb ($).
Insiders(His Friends and Family) are saying he is giving Michigan one more shot
who does the actual BBQing at these things? Do they hire caterers or restaurants? Or is Harbaugh manning the Weber personally?
/pretty sure my applewood smoked ribs would land us a commit or two.
Sources have confirmed that I just committed to the University of The Mad Hatter. Press Conference at noon.
apple cider and fresh lemon juice for about 6 hours. Then the rub goes on for another couple hours. I use a rib rack and indirect grill them low and slow, replenishing the applewood chips as needed.
Sauce on the side, but you won't need it.
to see that Carter Dunaway has 3 stars....I seem to recall weeping and gnashing of teeth here when he was offered with 0 stars.
Coach Harbaugh is doing a tremendous job of recruiting, especially considering the crappy situation he walked in to.
Now, will Harbaugh do more with these recruits than virtually any other coach? Yes. Will our recruiting improve as our on-field results improve? Yes.
But everyone on this site likes to say "why all these three starzz /s haha JK," simply sarcastically regurgitating the various authors' pleas to calm TFD. And in 2020 this class is going to be looked at as a filler class with a few "gritty" starters and everyone will be talking about how this isn't our year as we get blown out by OSU. We will be annoyed that we can only have a class of 14 kids in 2019 because our roster is filled with no-stars.
Recruiting is not overrated in football. The teams with the best recruits win the most games - and the big games. We will never have sustained success if every class is comprised roughly like this class is comprised as of today. One counter is "not true we have recruited well lately and we suck," which does nothing to disprove my point.
Michigan will always and forever be able to pluck 3-stars from other programs with a last minute offer when we strike out on big fish. The idea of offering these kids now and accepting commitments is asinine and it's going to show on the field.
People like to say "look at player x! He was a three star and a good starter for us!" Well we suck. And we have sucked for almost 10 years. Those "good starters" wouldn't see the field on a good team.
Bad depth is not only worthless but with limited scholarships is a major ankle weight. I'm rooting for massive attrition in this class and everyone else should be too.
Tell 'em.
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Nice spacing though.
You just don't see enough of that around here.
But in all seriousness, you're wrong a lot in that post. I get your point, but you can't say that "this is a filler recruiting class" and also say "if all of our classes are like this" because that doesn't follow. If you're chalking this class up to being filler, which isn't far from the truth since we were working from behind a lot and needed to go after more less-heralded guys, then why would you expect every class to be like this? You said it yourself in your second paragraph - if our on-field results improve, so will recruiting.
Recruiting is overrated in college football. It wasn't overrated 10 years ago, but I feel it has hit a fever pitch. It's important, sure, but it has become overrated. How excited were we 4 years ago because guys like Pipkins and Kalis would be instant stars and MSU's run was clearly done because look at those classes they have. It's a piece to the puzzle, no doubt, but it's become overblown.
Your second-to-last paragraph is also dead wrong. Jake Ryan, Frank Clark and Devin Funchess were all 3 stars. They are all now in the NFL. You don't think they would have started for good Michigan teams?
Why root for attrition? If you're going to "root" for something over which you have no control, why not root for these guys to all overachieve? Isn't that more beneficial than leaving, requiring us to fill their spot with someone younger and unproven?
I acknowledged that we have great coaching. That is also irrelevant. My point is about ceiling, on a mass level. Harbaugh can do a lot more coaching up a 5-star than he can a 3-star. The results prove it. Look at the first round draft results posted here a few months ago. Something like 80% of the draftees were 4/5 stars even though there are far fewer in the pool.
Recruiting matters. Stars matter. I'm so sick of people who think that stars don't matter because of Trey Burke. We are talking about 25 person classes. Distributions actually matter. 5-stars are proven to be better players than 4-stars on average; 4-stars better than 3-stars. Yeah there are many 3-star recruits that Harbaugh turns into studs. How many of them aren't good and fade away? The VAST majority.
Quit sugar-coating the really bad situation we are in right now with ~12 commits that no good team is even considering. It's objectively bad.
There are always diamonds in the rough. Those are the only ones you hear about. We shouldn't be recruiting based on the goal of finding them.
I was going to go all TL/DR on your 17 paragaph missives but you apparently have missed the 7 year war around here on STARZ, stats and relative merit.
Here's the thing. Starz are complied by recruiting service analysts who get paid to identify talent but mostly to sell their services. Similarly, Jim Harbaugh and his staff are paid to identify talent but not so much to sell you a service but, rather, to win games and ultimately keep their jobs. As a supporter of the program you can choose to buy the services analysis of players or you can choose to buy Harbaugh's analysis of players. They are quite exclusive.
Your read on stats re: starz and related analysis is certainly simplistic. At the bottom line, however, you basically are going to trust Harbaugh (Superbowl coach, NFL talent evaluator, combine...I mean summer swarm camp...facilitator) to identify talent or you are not.
Clearly you don't and put far more faith in Allan Trieu et al.
/smh
This isn't about trusting Harbaugh. It's about trusting 120 other coaches, several of whom have won national championships.
I'm also not saying never take a 3-star. I'm saying we should be shooting for the objectively better players instead of settling for projects in May.
Srsly? WTF has Darrell Hazell accomplished in his career that leads me to believe that his offer would somehow validate a Michigan offer made by Jim Harbaugh after an evaluation camp combine and film evaluation by this staff?
Nonetheless, let's take a couple easy examples of your theory and look at offer validation (though I don't think it necessary):
Victor Viramontes (3 starz) Quarterback/Athlete. Probably does not play Quarterback at Michigan.
Offers of Note: Wiscy, Nebraska, Ga. Tech
I don't see the issue here if Harbaugh has a) seen his film and b) run him through a combine environment. This is how the NFL does it.
Or another, more difficult one:
Kingston Davis (3 starz) Running Back.
Offers of Note: Florida, Louisville, Miss State, Nebraska, Ole Miss Bag Men
Harbaugh was in on Davis early and we see the outcomes.
It is possible the guy knows what he's doing...
Baylor, MSU, and TCU were all built off of primarily 3 stars. That's 3 of the top 6 teams in football last year. So right off the bat, you're wrong. Coaching is vastly more important in football than recruiting, and we have some of the best coaches in the country now.
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Urban Meyer's near "5-star freshmen mutiny" at Florida:
http://www.onlygators.com/08/25/2010/the-truth-about-freshmen-powell-an…
http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/uf-closed-practice-causes-chaos-after-pla…
http://www.sectalk.com/board/topic/63098-uppity-freshmen/
He clearly did not handle them well, and it signaled the beginning of the end for him in Gainesville. And quite a mess he did leave, one from which they are still trying to recover. Here is the article that recounts that:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-04-09/urban-meyer-…
I am not saying that Michigan should not recruit top ranked players, but as noted here by several others:
- Coaching is a huge component in what these players do on the field, not just their star ratings.
- Trust the coaches to evaluate recruits.
- As a fan, always balance expectations.
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My point is simply that, even Urban Meyer (your example), one of the top coaches in college football, has had significant issues coaching and managing 5-star players. It is not just about getting these highly rated kids on campus, it is what the staff can get out of them once they are there. The dynamics of management, integration, team-building and actually getting these "5-stars" to improve once they are on campus, are hugely important.
Personally, I am happy we have a coach that has proven that he can coach 5-stars AND identify talent AND coach up underrated players.
That being said, the 2016 Class has nine 4-stars, and is set to add several more, with a good chance to add a 5-star as well. That is right in line with every other team in the top ten.
What's YOUR deal?
We will have a decent class. I already acknowledged that. But the bottom half - rankings wise - will hinder the restoration process.
is paramount, regardless of star rating. Of course, we should not ever make a blanket statement that all 5-stars are entitled headcases therefore do not recruit them; I am clearly not saying that. My point is that no matter what the star rating and the overall class ranking, the staff has to create the right team chemistry to get all players achieving/overachieving. Based on the resumes/track record of Coach Harbaugh and staff, I am confident that they can get it done with the players they are bringing in to the program.
As to your last point stating that the bottom half of the class "will hinder the restoration process", I am not buying it. This statement assumes that these players will have a greater impact on the program than the balance of their classmates, and, you are essentially declaring that the staff has no ability to identify "under the radar"/"sleeper" type players, yet every other program can do so and because of this, has better 3-star (2-star) players.
I see where you're coming from, but I think it's key to remember: the recruiting services real function is to adjudicate a great mass of raw, high school-age talent and fill in blanks for coaches and everyone else on the trail. They're much more of a loose baseline for choosing someone than some hard-and-fast guarantor of future success.
This is to say, a recruiting service necessarily knows/cares a lot less about an individual team or coach's needs/style/plans for the future than the coach does, so **as long as you have a competent coach that truly understands the game, is a good judge of talent, and KNOWS exactly how he wants to play that game; (has a battle plan before the fighting commences)** (*cough* *cough*, Hoke and Borges), I don't think the star count is quite as important.
What I guess I mean is, a middling (sigh, middling-to-poor) coach like Brady Hoke probably really needed those stars to help him plot a course--and he likely promised them the moon to sign them, but Harbaugh already knows where he's going and what it will take to get there.
Unless all these 3-stars just end up sucking. Which is a possibility that, should it come to pass, will prove you were right. I have a feeling they won't, and that college and pro SuperCoach Jim Harbaugh knows what he's doing and isn't grabbing these lower-ranked kids exclusively from a position of recruiting weakness.
I think the original critique/concern was way overstated, but I'll admit that I have some questions, too. I'd feel great about all of the low-rated guys if those guys were clearly at the top of our coaches' lists. But they've given out a ton of offers this year, so it hasn't been quite that targeted. And I'm a little uneasy about how many teammates/brothers/etc. of high-level recruits seem to be getting offers. At times it seems like we're willing to use two or three roster spots to (maybe) get one top guy. Unless it's for a Rashan Gary-level recruit, I'm not sold on that approach.
Having said that, I'll cut the coaches - and especially these coaches - a ton of slack on guys they've worked with at camps. And I agree with WolvinLA that recruiting, while important, gets so much attention now that its importance is exaggerated. It's also nice to see comments from Drevno, at Michigan [link] and before then [link], that basically say Harbaugh's the best talent evaluator he's ever seen.
What other coach ran a combine (I mean er...Summer Swarm Tour) over multiple sites nationally to identify this talent? The is the way it's done in the NFL (in-person evaluations combined with film analysis) and how players from smaller schools like D2/D3, Canada etc. are often found.
Harbaugh has changed the narrative on recruiting, somwehat, with this combine system (I mean Summer Swarm Tour) and going forward it will be interesting to see a) the impact off this on the services who might have to work a bit more and b) the impact of this on other coaches/programs and how long it takes other schools to implement something similar. That said, Drevno could be right and maybe not all coaches have Harbaugh's ability to project talent.
FWIW, I also think the earlier poster crabbing on about STARZ and rankings and 12 players nobody wanted is ridiculously off base. Athletes like Vic Viramontes, for example, with Ga Tech, Nebraska and Wiscy offers aren't exactly nobodies...
if a person goes to a camp they get rated. i heard that a top of a state did not go because he knew where he wanted to go. he got a 3 star. so to me stars are in the sky. what they do on the field is what rates. lots of three stars turned out to be good football players. that what coaches are for to bring them up to a better player/
I also think that if you look at the lower ranked players he's recruiting you'll notice they have the athleticism and frames that with a lot of work will give them an advantage over their opponent.
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Michigan will be the best offer for every single player we recruit.
August 11th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
at last, i think its all about the stars. Ahmir campus visit may play a crucial role to the future, lets see how it goes. Tripp
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