Unorthodox + Undervalued [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition Comment Count

Matt EM February 25th, 2022 at 8:40 AM

A shorthanded Michigan squad responded well in the aftermath of the Wisconsin fiasco. With a Q1 win over Iowa on the road and another victory over a bubble team in Rutgers, the Wolverines control their destiny down the stretch with three of four games at Crisler. 

 

THREE UP

The kids come to play. In perhaps the biggest game of the season, the freshman trio of Houstan/Bufkin/Collins was outstanding. Collins in particular was superb during a second half run that effectively ended the game. His defensive presence on the ball made a huge impact. He was in guys rather than next to them as reflected below.

Offensively, the euro-step in transition attracted all the headlines, but the possession below may depict the most growth. Instead of pounding the ball without creating any advantage, Frankie waited until the weakside help left the paint and fed Dickinson with the re-entry pass once he established better position. 

Individual +/- is probably the biggest fraud in basketball, but Collins going a +8 in nine minutes definitely lines up with the eye test. He turbo-charged the Wolverine 9-0 run to stretch the lead to 12. 

Bufkin joined the party with significant contributions of his own. The possession clipped below is likely the best two-way sequence of his career.

Kobe had the look of a seasoned veteran when he digs at Omoruyi to make him pick up his dribble before closing out under control and contesting the jumpshot. On the other end the lanky guard/wing is the ballhandler in Pistol action and absorbs contact before converting at the rim. 

The defensive end was also a huge plus for Bufkin, as he did a great job on the ball against Rutgers' secondary shot-creators.

Since getting roasted by Sam Sessoms on the road at Penn State, Kobe has improved a considerable amount on the defensive end. 

Michigan's most touted 2021 signee, Caleb Houstan, lead the scoring charge with 21 points and five triples.

But Houstan did more than just space the floor. He had a nice block early on and wasn't a liability defensively. Throw in a dumpoff as the ballhandler in ballscreen action and you have his most complete performance of the season. 

Collins and Bufkin going from net-negatives to neutral/slightly above-average absolutely changes the complexion for this team. Kobe being competent allows Michigan to shift Houstan to the PF spot for spurts and Frankie holding his own means the Wolverines can be a bit more aggressive in transition. Perhaps more than anything, some consistency from those two allows Jones and Brooks to get reasonable rest while not being forced to play Houstan should he struggle. 

 

Steady guidance from DeVante Jones. The senior PG had another good outing against Rutgers with 14 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists on 6/12 from the field. During B10 play, Jones is third in the conference in assists per game at 4.9 and fourth in assist/TO ratio at 2.7. Throw in 10.4 points and nearly 5 rebounds per contest and you have a reliable starting floor general.

His game isn't necessarily pleasing from aesthetics perspective, but it is effective. A big part of DeVante's scoring package is the ability to hit unorthodox shots as seen below.

For a team that doesn't have have someone to consistently hit tough shots from the perimeter, converting those off-balance looks compensates a bit.

Additionally, Jones has quietly strung together some quality outings on the defensive end. The rotations and activity he displayed against Rutgers was notable and he had some really good moments against Wisconsin as well.

While he may not have the perimeter shotmaking ability of a Mike Smith, DeVante is a more complete player at this point. 

[AFTER THE JUMP, please hit open shots.]

Homecookin' for Houstan. A freshman having an up-and-down season is certainly no surprise, but the home/away splits for Caleb are extreme. Michigan's designated shooter is simply a different player at Crisler as evidenced by this shot chart from UMHoops. He's shooting 15-20% better from the majority of shooting zones at home, and nearly 30% better on triples from the right wing. 

The good news? The Wolverines play three of their final four games at home, with two of those contests coming against ranked teams. Let's hope Crisler Caleb is a thing during the next week.

 

ONE DOWN

Too Much Space. Michigan has one of the more bizarre shot profiles that I can recall. The Wolverines generate 1.01ppp on unguarded catch + shoot jumpers per Synergy. That is good for 23rd percentile nationally on 204 attempts. Michigan is missing a ton of shots just like this.

On the flip side, the Wolverines actually grade out better when the shots are contested, at a blazing 1.073ppp. Michigan is in the 89th percentile in the country on these shots types on 191 attempts. Hitting contested, double-clutch threes along with the multi-dribble iso variety as seen below will do that for you.

If we can just hit a damn open shot, this offense would go from good/top-25 to potentially elite. The coaching staff is scheming open shots in heavy volume and the team just hasn't been able to cash in. The early parts of the second half against Wisconsin really hit on this point. Michigan had 8-9 WIDE OPEN triples after going up 5 and simply could not connect on the looks that would've effectively put the game away by the ten minute mark. 

Comments

PM

February 25th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^

Agreed re. the mental aspect. If you're wide open you have the added pressure (whether subconscious or conscious) of knowing you should make it. On the other hand, if someone is in your grill there's a lower expectation (pressure) combined with the fact you don't have time to think about it, unlike a wide open look.

It's kind of like suddenly hitting better in tennis after breaking a string and using an old backup or borrowed racket. The pressure of expectations is lifted. (yeah, at 5'7" I played tennis in HS, not hoops).

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^

You're absolutely correct about the hoops though.  At least for some guys (like me), when you're open and it's a catch-and-shoot, it feels like the pass was in slow motion and all you can think when it's on the way is "you-have-to-make-this, you-have-to-make-this, you-have-to-make-this" and that messes with you.

I get the sense that Eli was like that earlier in his career.  Johns almost certain is.  And it's especially tough when you're a bench guy and you know you're only going to get one or two looks and you put a ton of pressure on yourself to make those to get more time.  That's almost certainly the case with Bufkin as he's hitting just 7-31 (23%).  I wouldn't be surprised if he's the best shooter on the team in practice.  That shot is smooth and pretty.  Frankie is probably not as bad as 14% but again, tough when you take maybe one a game.

Despite being a starter, I think Caleb is in his head.  The pressure of being a five star and expecting to be a one-done is probably pretty significant.

But yeah, shooting open threes (off the pass) is the one thing is basketball that's like hitting in baseball.  You have time to think (so the key is not to) and everyone in the entire arena is focused on you.  The rest of basketball pretty much happens in a flow so it's instinctive and you don't even have time to think about it.

SDskyjammer

February 25th, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^

I don’t agree with half mental comment. The shooters on this team other than Houstan & Brooks have poor to horrible shot mechanics.

1. Don’t get their feet hips shoulders squared up.

2. Poor hand elbow wrist positioning. Look at Jones start the ball at his chest -drop it down to his waist - then bring it back up. Ugh-ly. I haven’t seen that since playing 5th-6th grade ball.

Kobe Bufkin often sets his Right foot ahead of Left with stance too wide. Off balance. If you look at 3 he made off the dribble in videos above he had feet square & shoulders square with the rim. He was falling away which is not preferable. You would prefer to see neutral centered balance on jump shot or moving forward a bit.

Look back at Stauskas & D. Robinson form shooting. Square- balanced - watch their arm elbow- wrist end up in that sweet fishhook look.

3. Current group of players poor shot mechanics result in exactly what poor shot mechanics get you - inability to consistently make open shots. Hesitant I don’t know where this shot is gonna land hunky form. Frankie Collins epitomizes that. Jones is another. Jones is more likely to make a shot moving- juking-bumping in the lane nearer the bucket. He is guessing when wide open from 3. 

4. You might look at Brooks as someone struggles with psychological mental issues. He has good-to very good shot mechanics but his unselfishness & desire to be a good team player get in a the way of his taking over a portion of any game by taking & making his own shots. Gotta have no conscience in this moments. Give me that ball & I am gonna make this shot. Don’t care if I miss. I will make the next. Give me the damn ball.

ypsituckyboy

February 25th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^

The sheer number of wide open 3s that were missed against Wisconsin had to kill the coaches. Some great action and ball movement and we just laid an egg on the actual shots.

Matt EM

February 25th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^

Yes and no, depending on your lens.

Jett is a high-volume 3pt shooter, but he also takes a lot of difficult attempts off the dribble so his percentage isn't necessarily going to look like an elite shooter from distance. A lot of it will come down to whether his attempts at Michigan are primarily the catch + shoot variety or pull-ups.

Tarris is a good shooter for a big and I like his mechanics. But he's not a volume shooter by any stretch. 1-2 attempts from distance in most HS games.

I've covered McDaniel probably more than anyone over the last year, so I'll let you draw your own conclusions as to his shotmaking prowess. I'd describe him as average/slightly below average in terms of shooting.

 

MGlobules

February 25th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^

The bigger immediate question is whether it's on the way for 22. These are actually decent shooters missing the shots. 

The shorter answer is of course that we don't know, but there have been some promising signs of late, and a home stand might be the time to build some confidence to carry into other venues. The early-season criticisms of the coaching and Juwan, though, were wrong-headed, in my view. The coaches have been getting these guys open. 

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^

Exactly.  It was weird to see Seth's graphic with all five starters (when Johns was starting) at 32% or better including a center that's at 36% and yet the team is only at 33%.  It was almost like, how is that even possible?

But what's worse than hitting 33% is the extreme variability.  That's propped up by some really hot games in which they've been over 50% (Purdue, Northwestern, etc) and too many 20% and below games.  Need to be more consistent.

Home games should help.

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^

There's also the transfer portal where Juwan will once again be very active.

He will bring in another PG and maybe a second combo-ish guy, probably focusing on a PG that can shoot given that's Frankie's biggest weakness.

He will bring in another big.  I imagine the focus will be on rim protection but if he can get some shooting that will be a bonus.

And he could bring in another wing unless he's really confident in Twill/Jett.  He'll look for a 3 and D guy at minimum, bonus if that player can create at all.

Also, I think Bufkin has a chance to break out in a major way.  He could be a high volume, high percentage guy next year.  And Frankie could get himself to decent.

AC1997

February 25th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^

I tried to reply to this earlier and got an error after typing it up.  The key thing next year is going to be who comes back among the three possible NBA starters.  If they all return (unlikely obviously) then we can't sign any transfers because we are full.  Here's how I look at incoming transfers this off-season, focusing on those three guys and ignoring unexpected attrition elsewhere:

  • 0 NBA departures - YAY!  We get our guys back!  Uh....but we also only have three guards on the entire roster and none have proven they're even rotation players let alone worthy of 30mpg.  
  • 1 NBA departure - You have to go to the portal for a guard and preferably one who can play either PG or SG to take pressure off the young guys.
  • 2 NBA departures - Now you have to grab another big and they probably need to be able to play a lot of minutes.  Maybe you could grab a PF/C type depending on who returns, but there will be a need for size for sure.
  • 3 NBA departures - This is where you go get your guard/wing and hope they are either a very good scorer or a very good defender.  In this scenario you could afford to get a true PG and a SG/SF wing instead of a combo guard.

I don't buy into any of the "roster construction" narrative with the current team - especially when you consider the other recruits we went after but didn't sign.  The one area where you could potentially question a roster decision is over-signing the 2022 class with Glenn instead of banking that scholarship to react to needs in the off-season.  I like Glenn and think he has potential, but he's another long-term project who has no positional flexibility and plays at a spot where you already have several other players who could be in the rotation.  

These things have a tendency to work themselves out before the season starts so we'll see what happens.  I do love the idea of two guys coming back along with a transfer guard - I think that team can make some real noise next year as long as they can defend.

KRK

February 25th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^

Matt,

Are there any stats around how many open shots M is getting compared to other teams?  I watch a few college games a week and it feels like M gets a lot more open looks out of their action but I wasn't sure if that was just my bias or if they are at the upper-end of this.

Matt EM

February 25th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^

Total unguarded shots can be noisy, since pace can influence shot totals. So let's examine another B10 team in Purdue, since pace is likely similar. Purdue has logged 234 unguarded catch + shoot attempts this season and generating an insane 1.462ppp, the best in the country.

Michigan has 204 unguarded catch + shoot attempts on the season, 30 less than Purdue. So, on average the Boilermakers are getting 1 more unguarded attempt per game. So functionally, not a big difference.

The distinction is Purdue actually takes advantage of those looks. Bottom line, Michigan has elite coaching, but lack the horses on the perimeter in terms of shotmaking. 

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^

Purdue has the #2 3pt% in the country so in fairness, they take advantage of open shots better than just about anyone in the country.  Michigan does lack elite or even good three point shooting as they're simply average at 33.3%

The difference between 40% and 33.3% is pretty massive at ~0.2 ppp.

One thing I just realized as far as why Michigan shoots so poorly on unguarded shots is that it matters who is getting those unguarded threes.  Teams are pretty much leaving Jones, Johns, Frankie, Moussa and even Hunter (who is down to 34%) wide open, all but begging them to shoot because they're all 34% or worse, some significantly so.  And when teams are worried about Hunter they'll gladly give up those shots. 

Eli and Houstan are getting fewer open looks as teams are less willing to help off them because those two will kill you if left open.  They're still getting some looks but those guys are shooting most of the guarded threes and obviously doing pretty well with them.

A small part of it is the willingness of Diabate and Frankie to take shots that they probably shouldn't take (and that the defense is given them) but their volume is low.

It would go a very long way if Jones could make teams pay a little bit more for dropping off him.

4th phase

February 25th, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^

Prior to the season we all thought we'd have huge lineups. Dickinson, Diabate, Houstan.

I don't think anyone expected going small might be the most effective lineup. 

TrueBlue2003

February 25th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^

The hope was that Houstan would be able to defend wings and that Diabate might be able to shoot enough to keep teams honest.  Pretty early on it was apparent neither of those things were happening so most here recognized that Houstan's best fit was at the four. 

The big problem was that there was no one else to play the three.  Twill hasn't been it and Bufkin wasn't ready.  Bufkin has had two good games in his last three, which is encouraging.  His upside is massive.

AC1997

February 25th, 2022 at 3:53 PM ^

Well, I wasn't among those in that crowd.  We've watched a decade of Michigan basketball where playing small with more shooting has been incredibly successful.  I was hoping for just as much Houstan at the 4 as I was Diabate.  I underestimated how unprepared Bufkin and Barnes would be for college though.  

In today's basketball shooting is king and very few teams play two bigs together anymore.  We've seen it work at times and Diabate has been better overall offensively than I thought (plus Hunter has been able to play >30mpg more than I thought).  In reality the issue we've seen is just as much defense as shooting as Diabate has been much worse defensively than we all hoped/expected.  We have a top-25 offense despite the big lineup and erratic shooting.  We have a bad defense in part because of the big lineup not being able to protect the rim ironically. 

shoes

February 25th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^

Purdue has been trying (and eventually giving up on), playing 2 bigs together for long stretches of games, for years now because it seems like they almost always have 2 quality bigs. Small ball, if your smalls are quick and can shoot seems generally more effective to me.

Matt EM

February 25th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^

I'd probably disagree that shooting is king in basketball. At least as it relates to championship caliber teams. In fact, winning at the rim is king IMO.

The last 2 NBA champs have been considerably worse than their respective Finals opponents at shooting and considerably better in terms of paint production. 

At the college level, you simply don't have a ton of NBA quality bigs, so little guys that shoot jumpers have more impact on winning.

That said, when you think of the greatest CBB teams of all time, almost all of them have an NBA caliber big.

The best college team of the last decade was undeniably the 2012 Kentucky squad that featured Anthony Davis. 

Blue In NC

February 25th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^

Really appreciate this analysis.  And yes, it's been frustrating watching open shots being missed.  This is not a great defensive team but they have definitely improved a bit.

One item I have mild disagreement with: "While he may not have the perimeter shotmaking ability of a Mike Smith, DeVante is a more complete player at this point."

Maybe more well rounded.  DeVante has definitely improved and can provide rebounding and interior finishing in a way that Smith could not but man, having Smith on this team would be an instant upgrade in my book.  Obviously the shooting which would mean so much to this team but also the ability to push the ball in transition and get people easier shots.  And I am not sure that Smith's defense wasn't at least as good.  Smith had people shoot over him but at least he always stayed in front of them.  Jones is doing better but having a guy like Smith that could come off a screen and drill 3s at 40% would be so great.

AC1997

February 25th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^

I loved Mike Smith last year and argued with the MGoCrew a lot about his impact pre-season.  I thought he was perfect for the team and I do miss his outside shot - a clear advantage he had over Devante.  I will also admit to saying some very negative things about Jones early in the season that I'm happily eating crow about now.

As for your comment though, it might surprise you to realize the following:

  • Jones - 4.4 AST in 28.8mpg, 49% from 2pt, 17.9 TO%, 2.0 STL%, 20.0 USG%, 10.4 TRB%, 16.8 PER
     
  • Smith - 5.2 AST in 31.6mpg, 41% from 2pt, 19.8 TO%, 0.9 STL%, 17.6 USG%, 5.1 TRB%, 13.5 PER

Keep in mind that Smith played on a better team with guys who were more likely to convert passes into assists as well.  No doubt he was a far better shooter and that has hampered our offense at times.  But Jones' turnaround has been awesome and he's performing at an all around level higher than Smith last year.  

 

(I was most surprised to see that Jones has a lower turnover rate than Smith.)

Blue In NC

February 25th, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^

Thanks and solid response.  As you say, tough to compare the numbers across different teams and in different years (my guess is that the B1G is not quite as strong this year). Obviously last year's team was more efficient on both ends.  I tend to think that Smith had a positive overall contribution on the offensive end.  Not surprised that Jones' stl #s are higher, he takes more chances and gets burned way more often.  And Smith had a ton of TOs at the start getting used to his role but I think was much better at the end.

In any event, I appreciate Jones has made huge steps (and hope he continues that) but my admittedly "feelings ball" opinion is that this team would be better with Smith at PG and that overall Smith was a better player.  That's not a knock on Jones - at least it is a conversation now and that's a big improvement from the start of the year.  But on a team that struggles to shoot it, Smith would provide it.

Michigan4Life

February 26th, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^

I've noticed that DeVante Jones has gambled a lot less on defense lately and I think it's playing into his marked improvement on defense. It's more of intelligent gambling than recklessly gambling that would put his defense in a worse position to defend.