Thanks for this--it's good to know what we need to happen to even have a shot. Then I remember the other times I thought we had a shot. And the truth of the matter is even if the Xs and Os are played perfectly and as you've described, then inevitably Henderson will rip off a big run while our secondary is understandably preoccupied with the WRs. We might even maintain some defensive balance but eventually we will be forced to respect their run game and then comes the backbreaker 40+ yard passing TD.

Or, since no one's really mentioning their TEs, one of their TEs beats Ross with crisp routes and goes for 80+ yards and 2 TDs.

Brian said it best in his column and on the pod--Michigan is a good maybe even great college football team. The team they're playing against on Saturday doesn't look, feel, or play like a college football team. And it's just depressing that such a fun and successful season for Michigan is likely going to end in such a futile exercise.

Get them to load the box with linebackers and then motion All out to feast on whoever is left to play coverage.

Michigan has done this in the past. They got a LB on McKeon and motioned him out and proceeded to throw at least 1 fade and maybe even a back shoulder one (neither were complete and I hated the call). I think that was 2019 and they did it will Butt too in '16 if memory serves. Pretty comfortable saying All is a better receiving TE than McKeon was so I would feel better seeing him split out, especially because there is no Nico Collins on this team that should just get 50/50 balls 4 times this weekend.

They just cannot burn downs on slow developing run plays that put 6 guys in a phone booth or "option" off a DL with Cade. Need a 2017 repeat but this time the QB isn't John O'Korn. OSU doesn't have a dominate pass rusher like Ojabo/Hutchinson, but they have threats at every spot along the DL (6 guys have 3+ sacks) and Michigan's OL is good, not great in pass pro. Early PSU struggles put them down 3-0. Similar struggles against OSU and it's going to be 21-0.

Defensively I just don't know how Michigan is going to match up with OSU. They've torched everyone this year, even in their losses/close games. Their lowest offensive output was 469 yards against PSU and Stroud hasn't been below 65% completions since the Tulsa game in week 3 (the week before he took a game off to rest his shoulder). The DTs will need to hold up, the LBs can't get lost against the run or drift in their zones, and the CBs are going to have to make some plays. Defense is going to ride a thin line between holding OSU to FGs and lonnnngggg TD drives and getting hit over the head with a mallet repeatedly.

God I hate OSU. Pretty sure my NCAA 14 skills could get them to 30 PPG.

We won in A2 in 2011. Not Columbus.

I think we’re going to need to win the turnover battle as well. If we’re +2 or better, we’ve got a shot. If we’re negative, we’re likely cooked.

Working TOP is definitely one of the most consistent ways to lower variance. It's good against worse teams because it reduces their chances to break things open. But it also works on the flip side against such a high scoring team, where you just want the cost of a zero  point drive to be as high as possible. Eat that clock.

I feel like this is a very fair, believable take. Just like you said, if Michigan can force OSU to sustain drives ("bend but don't break"), unlike MSU last week, the Buckeyes have shown that they can and will make mistakes (turnovers, penalties, missed 4th down conversions, etc.). We will definitely bleed yards down the field uncomfortably on Saturday, but if we can stop the big play and force them to score in the red zone, we've got a chance. I'm not sure how much consistent pressure we can get on Stroud against a good OL with not much DT contribution, but any will help, and confusing coverages/blitzes will likely work.

I'm hopeful that this offense can sustain drives and make some headway on the ground, while still keeping this defense honest by targeting the middle with TE, RB, and WR routes.

Lots of ways to lose this game, but there are definitely visible pathways to victory as well? Hoping to witness one of the all-time great Michigan football victories on Saturday! Go Blue!

The Game with Capital Letters Pls

Sooner or later, Michigan is going to win “the game” again.

Mathematically speaking, odds greatly favor this being technically true.  Unfortunately, one of the worst misconceptions of history is that it's cyclical on a timescale humans can build expectations around.  Most fans, even those deep in the BPONE, think this will happen within a decade or so.

When Navy beat Notre Dame in 2007, their last prior victory was in 1963.  Over forty years.  There are plenty of other, significantly longer droughts in sports.

Now, to be sure, there's a chance Michigan beats Ohio State this week.  There's always a chance, so if Michigan wins, it's not like anything here gets invalidated.  But it's quite unlikely.  The OSU-UM talent gap is comparable to ND-Navy, and like Navy's role as a service academy, there are institutional factors weighing against Michigan that are extraordinarily stable:

• The B1G and NCAA hate Michigan.  Openly!  There's only so much they can do about it, but they can certainly bring in known OSU homers to officiate the game, or crack down on football camps because Harbaugh wants to out-work SEC coaches.  All fans like to complain about fixes, but we have decisions made on record that show their disdain for Michigan.
• OSU, on the other hand, is the darling of both, to the point that the B1G changed the rules mid-season to make sure they're in the title game (and by extension, playoffs).  Again, this is a decision they made in public, on the record.
• The playoff format has created an oligopoly backed by the full might of the NCAA.  OSU's in the club; Michigan isn't.
• Except when they violate the law (and even in most cases when they do), neither the B1G nor NCAA are accountable to anyone but themselves.  There are no elections, competitors, or publicly traded shares.  There are zero avenues by which coaches, players, or fans can change anything.

The Game itself is a statement on unbridled corruption vs. zero agency.  OSU has to basically screw up spectacularly to lose, but even that's exceedingly unlikely because this is a rivalry game and the last game of the season.  They could sleepwalk through the season; they'll still wake up in time to crush Michigan.  Harbaugh has made plenty of mistakes in his tenure, but he's completely blameless for being up against institutional forces well beyond what he can solve by messing with run fits.

But to Ian's point, 100% agree -- mess with the run fits he should, because if there's one thing about OSU, it's that they churn through five-star talent so quickly that much of it has little time to mature.  So, throw a real NFL game at them before they're ready for the NFL.  Make them think on the field, especially Hickman and Stroud, and all that five-star talent will slow down to walk-on speed.  It's a small, pathetic chance, but the alternative is to just roll over and die.

My conspiracy theory is Harbaugh's heavy emphasis on establishing a run game for 2/3rds of the season (much to the chagrin of the JJ-Anon crowd) was all prep for OSU. 7-8 weeks for the OL to practice vs live competition.

Wait a minute, are you telling me that Harbaugh’s emphasis on establishing a running game, deploying all forms of run blocking (zone, stretch, split zone, gap, power), and not at all caring that Cade rarely pulls the ball was because his plan all year was to beat Ohio State or die trying?!?!

Really good analysis. Creating extra gaps with multiple TE's is a pain in the ass for defenses. We do it at the high school level. It certainly brings extra guys down into the box, but they can only put 1 in a gap and Michigan just needs to win the point of attack. I imagine we will see plenty of this on Saturday. It becomes a (not-so?) simple matter of execution. They can't wiff or mis-ID and the RB's need to have good vision and feel for the hole. If they score TD's and not stall in the red zone there is a chance. On the defensive end I agree 100%. I've watched a lot of OSU this year. They score on big plays. Limit those and force them to drive the football. The more that happens the better chance Stroud gets impatient and forces something. He's done it before so I have no doubt he will do it again if we take away the quick strikes. 

As OSU is currently playing, the Michigan offense cannot go multiple/consecutive 3 and outs and expect the defense to bail them out. But if the offense can do their part and keep Michigan in this game-from the beginning I think the defense will also be able to do their part. 

It would seem as though Michigan's best shot here is to, indeed, make it into more of a grinding contest. OSU is a phenomenal front-running team but they have not played all that well this year when they have been challenged. Another thing about this year's Michigan squad is that they have actually developed some solid depth on both sides of the ball which should allow them to hang tough and play hard for the entire 60 minutes. 

I hope our team is excited to play this game-cannot imagine that they are not...because this is why you play the game...and the coaches too. 

Pick your poison, really. You can't realistically expect to win in a shootout with OSU, because you just don't have the horses to keep up with them and play that kind of game, and you can't realistically expect to turn the game into a sludgefart and win a 20-17 kind of affair. 

You can devote all the attention you want to Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba, and then just let Henderson maul you on his own. You stay far enough off those three to make sure they can't get behind you, and they can undoubtedly still hurt you on short and intermediary passes. 

I do not at all envy Mike McDonald this week. Probably has the hardest job in CFB this week. Somehow he's got to find a way to press all the right buttons against an NFL-caliber offense, with a defense that has only a few pieces that are pro-caliber themselves, and hope for the best. He may draw up a great gameplan, and he's undoubtedly seen this kind of offense when he was in the league. But does he have the personnel that can execute it from start to finish? Against that caliber of opponent? Blegh it pains me to even think about. He does not have the Baltimore Ravens defense trotting out there to help him out. 

If he can draw up and execute some kind of gameplan that keeps OSU in the neighborhood of 30-35 points, one that consistently forces OSU to go the length of the field, then he puts Michigan in a position to win, and that's where he can flip the cap to Gattis and say "I did my part, now go do your's."

I know, I know, good luck with all of this falling in line the way it needs to, but if you're going to beat this caliber of opponent, that's what needs to happen. I ain't getting my hopes up. 

So was the writer born when he wrote that michigan won in Columbus in 2011?  That game was in Ann arbor and Denard was the qb

I will almost guarantee that Gattis calls a great game here and there are plays to be made. He’s done well all year and the team seems to be building to a crescendo on that side of the ball. OSU will score 30+ however so we have to take what’s there for the taking. This has been an issue all year. If Cade can see and hit the 500+ yards that MSU was offering him, we win that game. Same will apply here - have to take what the scheme gives you and make it all count. Cade played well in big games this year but need another level from him and everyone in this game to have a breath of a chance

Tremendous content here! To my untrained mind, this has to be some of the most thoughtful analysis of what we will see Saturday. 
 

At the very least I won’t be anxious with every running play and demand we air it out to compete. 

This is a good rundown of a low-probability hope.

I don't think Michigan can do it. OSU just has strength in too many places, and a number of the achievable things Michigan could do that could change the outcome are things that Michigan has shown a history of not doing well or consistently this year. 

But there is something really valuable here for evaluating the way the team is built:

I wish our offense used the passing game more. I think it is inexcusable how they squandered the DPJ/Black/Collins/Martin class of receivers.

But the roster is what it is. And people are screaming that Michigan needs to "focus" on OSU (a complaint I believe is overblown). Well, The analysis here suggests that Michigan is built *specifically* to give the team a chance to win this game, particularly on offense. The areas of less dominance in OSU's defense, by this writing, are specifically the areas Michigan has been working to exploit all year. Forcing safeties to be first-fill guys? Michigan has a demonstrated history of doing that this season. 

We'll see about the defense. I think our personnel issue on that side is too big of a liability to give us a chance here. But I'm interested to see what Macdonald will bring to the table, since he surely has seen a fair number of ways to attack dynamic passing attacks in the NFL. I do agree that trying to keep the passes shorter is good, but that's a hard ask. OSU's offense is really, really good. 

No question that keeping the game "shorter" is the way to go. But that will be frustrating to watch if Michigan can't execute its drives. 

...Cole Stroud?

I'm with you completely on offensive strategy.  I think Harbaugh is in the same headspace - the "Ohio" drill implemented this spring is about running the ball and stopping the run, after all.  I would like to see some extended handoffs (bubble, swing, rail, tunnel) and some jet/orbit/end around gives early to keep linebackers from getting downhill too much.  But as you point out, the diversity in the base run game may be able to help attack them regardless.

This game is about patience from both coordinators.  Even if you go down two scores, you cannot abandon the run and you cannot start bringing too much pressure defensively.  OSU is great at putting people on tilt.  Have to stay disciplined.

Damn it....I feel like Charlie Brown and this post was Lucy putting the ball down.  

It sounds logical, pound the ball, get a couple big hitters, survive on D.  It just comes down to their player being more talented at 90% of the positions on the field and eventually they get a couple big plays and you're down 17.  

I will start to believe if we can recover a strip sack or get a big play on special teams.  Both are things we are great at and are those wild cards in a big game.  

Michigan has not had a defensive score against Ohio State since Julius Curry's 50-yard interception return in Columbus in 2000. One of those would help.

Hmm, maybe we see now why Gattis/Harbaugh we're "lighting downs on fire" by using every run scheme known to man against 8 defenders in the box. It was practice, and "what have you done today to beat Ohio State?"

I have a red, hot take. We've going to see Cade pull the ball, a lot, on read options. IF I'm right about the prior 11 games being a preseason for this game, I can see how this would be a season-long con to establish the tendency that the QB is not a running threat. But, what if he gets hurt? Oh gee, the true freshman backup, who IS a threat to run, has had a lot of meaningful snaps to get comfortable with the college game. Moreover, McCarthy has the skills to play a run-run-runrun-BOMB offense.

Would it work? Who knows? But, if that is the plan, it would be smart as hell.