Searchbits IV: Let's Just Get Juwan Howard Done Already
A Frontrunner, Finally
For the first time I'd put money on one specific guy versus the field: Juwan Howard. A public discussion of a search firm getting in contact is somewhat unusual:
Juwan Howard tells me #Michigan has retained Turnkey Sports for its coaching search. Howard has spoken with them and has been informed that Wolverines AD Warde Manuel is very interested in speaking with him.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) May 17, 2019
The stuff that is filtering out after people start doing their diligence on him is universally positive. I mean, at this point just get it done and start trying to piece together the program again. If the next names on the list are Frank Martin and Ed Cooley they come with less upside and just as much downside—a new coach in a few years.
Meanwhile, time is ticking…
Exit Yak?
The fun, it continues. Shaka Smart interviews Yaklich…
Texas coach Shaka Smart spent Thursday talking with Michigan assistant Luke Yaklich about filling the Longhorns’ current opening on the men’s basketball staff, two sources familiar with the interview said.
Yaklich, known as Michigan’s top defensive assistant on former coach John Beilein’s staff, could not be reached Thursday. He’s spent the last two seasons with the Wolverines and widely credited with engineering a defensive overhaul.
…and it's going to be tough for him to turn to a solid offer when Michigan's in a state of flux. Yaklich's son is a junior in high school and maybe they don't want to move the family. But Michigan would be advised to make something happen quickly unless they want to lose him.
[After THE JUMP: Shaka day comes and goes; the NBA to college failure semi-myth]
As the prophecy foretold
Shaka Smart panic day has come, and it's seemingly gone. From the same Yaklich article:
Smart’s name has been mentioned by some in Michigan circles as a possible candidate for the Wolverines. However, two Texas sources indicated Thursday that nothing has happened.
Quinn says Smart is "not a candidate," flat out and LaVall Jordan is "quite unlikely."
Now we get to our first fun semantics period of this coaching search. Quinn responds when asked for clarification:
1) I can't and wouldn't speak to/for something someone else reports. 2) I consider a candidate to be someone who has been contacted directly by the school or the search firm and is a viable option to be hired.
— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) May 17, 2019
Sam insisted that he's a guy getting serious discussion with guys high up in the search. So did Rivals. Both things can be true: Shaka is being seriously discussed but the trigger has not been pulled on any sort of approach. At this point that would seemingly put him behind in the pecking order. The fact that Howard is an assistant and Smart is a head coach does complicate that calculus significantly—people get way less mad about assistants interviewing elsewhere.
Juwan Howard isn't NBA player X who did a bad job
One of the complaints about hiring Juwan Howard is the generally dismal record of NBA stars who jump to college head coaching gigs. I'm not here to dismiss that concern. It is a bit ominous. But I would like to turn the volume on it down a bit. Many of the guys cited had absolutely no track record as a coach or were stuck in situations where it's tough to dig out. A brief survey:
N/A
Donyell Marshall and Damon Stoudemire spent most of their coaching careers as college assistants and don't really apply to this conversation. The jury remains out on Patrick Ewing.
NO EXPERIENCE AT ALL
Chris Mullin at St Johns and Clyde Drexler at Houston had never held a coaching job of any description before getting head coaching gigs at their alma maters. Both bombed out, though you could argue that Mullin's one play-in bid in four years isn't far off from St John's recent norm. They had just two bids in the decade preceding Mullin's hire. Isiah Thomas had a brief and hilarious tenure at FIU and given all his other issues should be held in a separate category of total galoot.
BAD EXPERIENCE
Terry Porter is the coach at Portland. Mike Dunleavy is at Tulane. Reggie Theus had a good year at New Mexico State in 2007, jumped to the NBA, and then wandered back to a Cal State Northridge program that had managed two 15 seeds since 2000.
None of these guys had success. All had tenures as an NBA head coach that went badly. Porter lasted two season in Milwaukee and then got fired 51 games into a single season in Phoenix. Dunleavy was coming off a Clippers tenure in which he made the playoffs once; he has a 46% career winning percentage. Theus lasted barely more than a season in Sacramento. All three got fired midway through the year.
The only guy to have any period of success was Dunleavy, who had a few solid years in Portland, and that was 15 years past when Tulane pulled him off the scrap heap. He had not coached for six years prior to that hire.
OKAY YEAH NOT GREAT
Mark Price got the UNC Charlotte job; they had taken a major step back from their aughts heyday under Bobby Lutz when Alan Major's five-year tenure resulted in no bids and no teams better than 129th in Kenpom. Price was gone after two losing years and appears to have cratered the roster. Charlotte's finished 308th and 297th in Kenpom the last two years, which is by far their Kenpom-era nadir.
Danny Manning had a two year tenure at Tulsa that ended with a 13-3 CUSA season and a bid; this got him the Wake Forest job, where he's had one play-in bid and four horrendous seasons.
FINE OR BETTER
Avery Johnson just got fired after four years at Alabama in which he had between 18 and 20 wins and between 15 and 16 losses every year. Three NIT bids; he got to the second round of the tourney once. This is more or less exactly what his predecessor did.
Dan Majerle is doing a solid job at Grand Canyon, a program that did not exist before his tenure.
Fred Hoiberg was an unqualified success at Iowa State. Eric Musselman was mostly an NBA guy before three years as a college assistant.
So?
Hiring coaches is always a crapshoot but the problem with NBA to college transitions is not inexperience with college but the fact that the coaches in question aren't any good. Three of the above listed never coached before or after their disastrous tenures; three more had been out of coaching for years after lots of poor results before being revived.
Hiring Howard would be a risk, and the NBA to college transition is part of it. But he's not your average NBA-to-college transitioner. Those guys are usually crazy fliers, retreads, or established mediocrities. Howard is none of those.
For Howard to leave after one year that would mean B1G champs and at least a Final Four, probably more.
I hope that's the case but he's been in the running for NBA jobs for a few years already, it's probably only a matter of time, and any evidence that he can run a program may be enough to get him a shot.
One thing to not overlook is his sons are pretty good and in HS right now. I believe his son in 2020 has offer from vandy. Other in 2022 already has offer from Florida. Could be enticing to stick around and coach them.
Everyone thought Harbaugh was a home run hire and I would say the jury is still out. Maybe Howard will work out.
Exactly. Show me the meat? Something that gives me confidence. The O is good the D is bad. The D is awesome the O ok. Year FIVE .. dot the Is..You will not be fired. You will just lose something you feel is valuable. Success
The jury is still out, but its looking really good right now going forward.
Would you have said that on January 1? The football team hasn't played a game since then.
I would have.
Ty wants to throw shade at Harbaugh at every possible turn and still holds out hope that Mike D’Antoni will beat Harbaugh again. Ty has a very sad concern troll board presence.
Were any of those previous pro to college coaches as widely interviewed as Howard has been for nba jobs?
I wonder why he isn’t getting any of them...
Because he has been holding out for Michigan!
Ewing interviewed for quite a few jobs.
“brief and hilarious” ... classic ...
I’ll fucking cry if Yak leaves for less than a HC job.
Makes sense. Just give all the AC a raise. It's a career long time job or death. Let the results speak.
If Howard comes, we need to keep Yaklich and Saddi at all costs.... and regarding Yaklich, I do believe he will be a great HC one day, and the first from Beilein's tree.
I do wonder... NBA guys used to dealing with elite talent and body type... coming back to the amateur world, if they are happy in the downgrade... maybe not the players soon to go pro, but the young kids who need a few years of maturity, all the while the coach pining to go back to the pros. I do think that regarding Howard... many here say it'd be a short run in college and then back to the pros... if that is the case, I reckon promoting the assistant might be far better for long term stability, and the assistant promoted is far likely to stay for a long career like Izzo has.
With Howard, I think the gem is the possible monster recruiting possibility, which would replace the elite teaching/strategy by Beilein.
At this point I'd like to see both Howard and Yaklich, rather than see Yaklich leave. Yaklich leaving feels like its gonna really sting.
And also being realistic in what their less talented players can accomplish.
It seems that may have been a role in our football offensive problems under JH -- an offense that is too complicated for college players.
But I'm hopeful Juwan can adjust. I say offer him now; if he says no, Yaklich.
The Howard issue raises an interesting conundrum. His ceiling is virtually unlimited because we have no earthly idea what he can do. Hell he could be the next Coach K for all we know (he's very smart, has been preparing to be an NBA head coach since retirement, etc.) That being said, the floor is also incredibly low--think 12-15 win seasons (he has zero recruiting experience and pro coaches tend to think they can outscheme in college with lesser players. Spoiler alert--they can't).
Would you rather have the guy with the incredibly high variance in Howard? Or someone who can take care of the program, compete in the B1G, but probably not go to any Final Fours? Not sure who fits the latter choice, but Howard's variance is incredibly large.
The real issue with Howard is that if he turns out to be a star, Michigan probably can't keep him from being a head coach in the NBA much sooner than they'd like. In other words, what is Michigan's realistic upside with Howard IF Howard is at Michigan for 5+ years
If you go with Howard, I do think you have to go all in and let him choose his own staff. You can't saddle him Yak if he's not interested.
I generally agree that you need to let a new HC choose his assistants. But who is Juwan, coming from the NBA, going to bring in that is better than Yak? I can't imagine it. It would be a red flag if Juwan didn't jump at the possibility of keeping him.
It's a red flag if he doesn't want to keep an assistant coach he has never met in his life?
I'd argue it's more of a red flag if Howard doesn't have a) a list of people in mind for his assistant spots and b) coaches from the pros and college wanting to jump at an opportunity to work for him.
Whatever - John B was a once in a generation coach.
It's very likely we are going into a 10 year + rebuild. Multiple NIT. Never even close to a final 4.
Just like football after Carr. I sure hope this isn't the reality but John B really was a once in a generation coach.
Man I love me some Juwan Howard. But if someone has never recruited a day in his life.... wow basketball is the only sport where a decision like this would be made. Hope for the best but learning the recruiting game on the fly? Yikes. Assistants are great and all but not even a few years in college, not even a few years as a headcoach somewhere, not even a few years as a specialist like Yak? Uh oh i have a very Ellerbe feeling about this. And i love Juwan.
I’d rather have Yaklich than Howard. We would never consider Howard as a candidate if he didn’t play for Michigan. Yaklich has mastered half the game. I still think the HC is going to be off the radar. Maybe Randy Bennett.
I thought Randy Bennett was a good option until I saw this
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/westcoast/2013/03/01/saint-…
How Saint Marys got punished but LSU and Arizona are still at large is beyond my understanding. But No Randy is not an option.
The NCAA pretty much wasn't allowed to investigate until the trials were done.
The NCAA is absolutely going to do a thorough investigation into the allegations. Whether anything comes of it, I don't know. But LSU and Zona are far from out of the woods
We would NEVER consider Yaklich if he didn't coach at Michigan. No one would.
Agreed. Think if we were talking about the defensive assistant coach at Virginia or Texas Tech (the two teams with better D than us who played in the national championship game) who had never been a HC. That suggestion would be laughed off the blog. But because he's already here half the blog thinks he the best option. Doesn't make sense.
I actually think we'd be considering Howard even if he hadn't gone here. He's a guy on the short list for HC at multiple NBA teams. I think the only difference is he wouldn't have a reason to take the job if he didn't go here.
Dane Fife is someone we should consider.
Why do people assume that Yak is the candidate? When JB had to stay in Michigan while Michigan went oversea before last season started, it was Saddi Washington, not Yak, who spearheaded the team as the acting HC. Saddi should be the one in consideration, not Yak. We don't know what kind of offense Yak will want to run and Saddi has been around much longer than Yak. Saddi is a good recruiter as well.
Saddi was acting HC because he is assistant HC. He is likely the assistant HC largely because he has the longest tenure at Michigan. There would have been no reason for JB to tick off a good coach like Saddi by making Yaklich the AHC. It would create bad feelings for no good reason. So the fact the Saddi is formally next in the line of succession means little or nothing when it comes time to select the next HC.
Saddi is closer to being ready to be the HC than Yak who has less years of experience and hasn't had an offense that he can run in his entire coaching career. Saddi has 15 years of experience and saw success at Oakland and Michigan. He's closer to being ready than Yak.
saddi also developed dj wilson, mo wagner, and jon teske
I'm cool with Juwan but my number one choice is Yak. Guy is a defensive genius, good recruiter, tireless worker, great teacher, and young. He almost certainly will be a great head coach one day. I say promote him, find the offensive coordinator version of him, pay that guy out the nose, and live through the growing pains.
I am all in for Juwan
a couple of small things also go for him
1. The returning roster is front heavy with Teske, Davis, CC, Johns, Faulds. Beilein never played 2 bigs together except a few occasions with Wagner and DJ. Juwan's offense will certainly rely more on the bigs and he will develop them well.
2. NCAA is moving 3pt back more than a foot, we will certainly see 3pt percentage drop in the next few years (but eventually will come back), not good for parameter oriented offenses, but less so for an interior-lean offense.
Jalen sold me on Juwan.
But I like Yak too.
Prohm seems good as well.
All are gambles but with great upside.
Get a deal done and keep recruiting from falling apart.
Personally, I'd take a shot with Yak.
I'm not being facetious, one of the main reasons I'm wary of hiring Juwan Howard is that I don't want to fire Juwan Howard. That would be a sad day.
But this is Michigan hoops. It has a better record over the last 50 years than football does. The bar is high, especially following Beilein.
This is not an Amaker situation where everyone is looking to just give the team a pulse. We're looking for Big Ten titles and Final Fours now. Making the Tournament is a minimum expectation. Anything less than a Sweet Sixteen season is a disappointment.
Juwan will get a one year grace period because he's Juwan, but if he's not at least making Sweet Sixteens with a line of sight for even more in the near future, people are going to quickly forget he's Juwan.
And to be fair, this is the same standard we would have if we brought in Donovan. You are not here for NITs and middle of the pack Big Ten finishes. Those days are in the mirror and we're not going back there.
Yeah, he would be difficult to fire.
Yak or bust!
I just can't imagine a guy with 150 million in career earnings getting out and recruiting 16 year olds and worse their parents
Hire LaVell and raises for Saddi and Yak seems like the best move to me
yeah i just can't imagine a former NBA player who made millions of dollars having any success in recruiting... especially not some guy from the 90's that the kids these days don't even remember.
unless... https://247sports.com/college/memphis/Season/2019-Basketball/Commits/
He's very competitive and has never been known to slack off, slide by, or take the easiest path. Nothing in his past leads me to believe he would take this job unless he's totally committed to doing it at the highest level he can, and that includes recruiting.
The Fab 5 ushered in the bleakest era in the history of Michigan basketball. It took 20 years to recover. Notwithstanding that he is a great guy, or perhaps a reason all the more, hiring Howard feels like the final act of a Greek tragedy.
1. I dont recall Howard being involved with the $, though I could be wrong. I thought it was webber/rose and Bullock/traylor/tailor.
2. Fab five didnt put us through 20 years of hell. It was our stupid AD who imposed penalties way more harsh than the NCAA has given out. We then compounded it by hiring Ellerbe.
Sorry, I was out of the country all week and have been trying to follow this all...
Is there any particular reason why Tim Miles hasnt been considered? IMO he did a pretty decent job at Nebraska given all of the things working against that program. He made their team very difficult to play in Omaha and seems like a clean coach. Definitely not a homerun hire, but I think he has a pretty high floor, knows the conference and is available.
Leave the country.
Miles seems like a decent enough fellow, but his results have been mediocre. He is a more likely candidate for a program that has no aspirations beyond being grateful to just make it to the NCAA tournament then fizzle out. Also, he has had a rash of players transferring out the past couple of years.
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