About Last Week

Once again, we learned very little about Michigan's schedule. One quirky tidbit, though, is that Michigan's opponents are now undefeated when not playing (a) Michigan, or (b) each other. And as of now, they are favored to continue that trend through next week. 

The Road Ahead

Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Central Michigan, 61-0

Recap: Our first Total Rutger of the season; Wisconsin scored 61 points, and CMU gained 58 yards. The only real suspense was whether the Chips could put together the 20 yards of offense with their final drive to avoid the Rutger, but they only managed to gain 17 yards (their second-best “drive” of the day).

Wisconsin did most of their damage through the air, with Jack Coan, Graham Mertz, and Chase Wolf  (yes, Chase Wolf) combining to throw for 400 yards at 10.3 yards per attempt. Coan leads the Big Ten with a 76.3% completion percentage, and hasn't thrown a pick yet this season.

This team is as frightening as: A team that has two quarterbacks better than the quarterback whose name is the combination of an apex predator and a verb that best describes how that apex predator captures its prey. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Defensively, they lead the nation in total defense (107.5 yards per game), yards per play allowed (2.1), yards per pass allowed (3.1), and scoring defense (uh, 0 points per game), and are #3 in yards per carry allowed and #3 in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage. They are also the only team who has not allowed a single play of 20+ yards on the season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has a better offense than South Florida and CMU.

Period.

Definitely better.

I will not be taking questions at this time.

When they play Michigan: Jump up jump up and get down.

Next game: Bye

[AFTER THE JUMP: jump jump jump jump jump]

Rutgers (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 30-0

Recap: The early part of any college football season can be hard to process. There is simply too much data to merge into unified theory. We’ve got Maryland blowing people the absolute hell out, and Illinois more likely than not to make a bowl game (more on that later, but, uh… wut?), Jack Coan leading the conference in completion percentage, and Michigan State more than doubling their yards-per-play and more than TRIPLING their yards-per-play allowed from week 1 to week 2. The hell are we supposed to do with all of this?

So, in an environment that provides too many variables to possibly evaluate, it’s nice to have a constant in the equation.

Rutgers completed 10 of 27 passes on Saturday for 47 yards (1.7 YPA) and 2 INTs. If you include Iowa’s one sack, Rutgers averaged less than 1.4 yards per dropback. McLane Carter was 6-16 for 28 yards before suffering a concussion near the end of the first half. Artur Sitkowski replaced him and went 4/11 for 19 yards with a long of 23 (yep, that’s not a typo). The team averaged 2.6 yards per play. 35 of their 49 plays went for 3 or fewer yards.

On the bright side, the Rutgers defense was also awful but was willing to stay on the field for like 38 minutes so we didn’t have to watch the Rutgers offense.

This team is as frightening as: Still Rutgers. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers has unleashed one of the most fearsome weapons in the Big Ten: Aussie punter Adam Korsak. Dude punted 10 times for 476 yards (47.6 yards per kick), including a 69 yarder. What’s more, seven of those ten punts ended inside the 20 yard line, with four ending inside the 3 yard line.

You call that a punt? THIS is a punt.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: While that is indeed some B1G-quality punting, Michigan managed to narrowly defeat Rutgers in 2016 despite Rutgers punting for more than 600 yards.

When they play Michigan: Yeah they’re gonna punt a lot.

Next game: Bye

Iowa (2-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 30-0

Recap: I mean, “Beat Rutgers” is about as descriptive as one needs to be.

This team is as frightening as:

Kinnick Iowa:   

Road Iowa:      

Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Iowa has rekindled the hyphenated or otherwise multiple-capital-letter’d receiver lineage of Kevonte Martin-Manley, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Matt VandeBerg, and Tim D’Wight. Ihmir Smith-Marsette already has 8 catches for 148 yards and 3 TDs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After averaging 2.7 sacks per game last year, Iowa only has two total sacks in the first two weeks.

When they play Michigan: We will actually have a lot more information about Iowa, because by then the Hawkeyes will have played Iowa State and MTSU.

Next game: ¡EL ASSICO!, at Iowa State, 4:00 p.m., FS1 (Iowa -1)

Illinois (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat UConn, 31-23

Recap: I’m guessing a not-insignificant number of you saw the comment above about Illinois being more likely than not to make a bowl game, and scrolled down here to see the joke. Nope. No joke.

Noteworthy bowl eligibility odds:
* ILLINOIS 57%!!!!!
* Ole Miss 55%
* Charlotte 51%!
* Nebraska 40%!
* Stanford 36%!
* S Caro 34% (despite being back in the top 30)

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 8, 2019

Illinois is 2-0, and they have remaining home games against Eastern Michigan, Rutgers, and Northwestern. Those three teams have an average SP+ ranking of #95. Win those, and you just have to pick off one from the pile of, say, Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue or Michigan State, all of whom Illinois has beaten in the last four years.

That said, Illinois remains pretty rickety. UConn was awful last year, and by all indications they are awful this year.

Zergiotis' fumble was...not great pic.twitter.com/mVoamfWbOM

— Daniel Connolly (@DanielVConnolly) September 9, 2019

Brandon Peters threw 4 more touchdowns on Saturday, though he averaged only 6.5 yards against a UConn defense that surrendered a nation-worst 10.7 yards per attempt in 2018.

This team is as frightening as: UConn, only slightly less UConn. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Finding Champaign. Michigan hasn’t been there since 2011, so the only people who probably know where it is are Jon Falk and Murderwolf.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois’ ground game is getting beaten up rather badly. Mike Epstein is already out for the year, Reggie Corbin missed this game with a hip pointer, and Dre Brown has been banged up. As a result, Ra’Von Bonner leads the team in carries.

Sadly for your author, the backfield tandem of Peters and Bonner will not play Michael Penix this season.

When they play Michigan: If Michigan can't make hay against these linebackers, we got us a problem.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, noon, BTN (Illinois -8.5)

Penn State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Buffalo, 45-13

Recap: Penn State has a recent history of turning lackluster first half games against middling opponents into laughers:

• They led Pitt 14-6 at the half despite Pitt yakking up several scoring opportunities. They won 51-6.
• They led Kent State 21-10 in the closing seconds of the first half. They won 63-10. Penn State actually did the same thing against Akron in 2016, turning a 16-13 halftime lead into a 33-13 win.
• They led Illinois 21-17 at the half (and 28-24 through three quarters) before pulling away to win 63-24
• In 2017, they led Rutgers 14-6 at the half. They won 35-6
• Also in 2017, they led Michigan 14-13 with under 2 minutes left in the first half. The final score is unavailable as of press time.

In this one, Buffalo led 10-7 at the half, outgaining Penn State 188-88, but largely because Buffalo Army’d the ball, running 38 plays to Penn State’s 19. Penn State took the lead early in the second half on a pick-six from John Reid, and after that the game went about the way a Buffalo/Penn State game probably should.

This team is as frightening as: Generic Mega Man boss. Like, Tuddy Man. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: The Nittany Lions brought back a little bit of the Deep State; Clifford averaged 12.7 yards per attempt, including deep shots to KJ Hamler, Jahan Dotson, and Pat Freiermuth.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Even adjusting for sacks, Buffalo held Penn State to 89 yards rushing on 21 attempts, with most of those coming on one 58-yard Clifford run. That was approximately the same level of rushing success Robert Morris had against Buffalo in Week 1.

When they play Michigan: It's all going to be on Sean Clifford's arm, as Penn State is struggling to find a go-to running back. Ricky Slade, the presumed starter and primary weapon, has 8 carries for 17 yards. In fact, the current running back depth chart is listed as Ricky Slade OR Journey Brown OR Noah Cain OR Devyn Ford.

Next game: vs. Pitt, noon, ABC (PSU -16.5)

Notre Dame (1-0)

Last week: Bye

[Stock Notre Dame image here]

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Sorry outlook hazy ask again later. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: I don't want to talk about Notre Dame today.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: And you can't make me so I don't have to. You're not my real dad.

When they play Michigan: We aren't looking ahead. Why would we look ahead. We just play 'em one game at a time.

Next game: vs. New Mexico, 2:30 p.m., NBC (ND -35)

Maryland (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Syracuse, 63-20

Recap: Okay, so, listen,,,

,,,

What had happened was,,,

Man, I dunno. I just don’t know.

It wasn’t just the score. It was how they did it. Maryland threw the ball at will (296 yards at 7.8 yards per attempt). They ran the ball at will (354 yards (!) at 7.9 yards per rush (!!)). And unlike last year’s Matt Canada offense of trying to get numbers on a given play with motion, frippery, and shiny objects, the offense Maryland ran was modern, coherent, and connected; they ran a number of RPOs and play actions off of their base run plays that consistently put Syracuse’s linebackers in the wrong place.

Maryland has now scored 142 points through two games. Rutgers scored 162 points all of last year.

This team is as frightening as: That story from last week where an entire undersea scientific research station vanished, leaving only a shredded communication cable. Maybe no big deal. Maybe Godzilla.  Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Remember that “was the Bama offense more of a Josh Gattis thing or a Mike Locksley thing” debate? Weeeeeeell…

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The back end of the defense was still prone to breakdowns. Maryland surrendered 330 yards and 8.5 yards per attempt to a Syracuse team that threw for 5.0 YPA and 2 picks against Liberty and a coach in a hospital bed the week before.

When they play Michigan: #SpeedInSpace vs. #FreeRangeTurtles

Next game: at Temple, noon, CBSSN (Maryland -7.5)

Michigan State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Michigan, 51-17

Recap: Michigan State had two reactions to being named the Rock last week. The first was to dress like the most important of all the rocks, the Heart of Te Fiti.

 

So Shiny

The other was to play offense for the first time in approximately forever. They averaged 8.7 yards per play, which far exceeded their best output from last season, and nearly doubled their 2018 season average of 4.6 YPP. It was the first time State has eclipsed 8 yards per play since 2010. More encouragingly, State’s offensive line actually moved people for the first time in recent memory. Elijah Collins seems to have grabbed the lead running back role from Connor Heyward after rushing for 192 yards on just 17 carries.

The caveat here? Western’s defense looked awful.

This team is as frightening as: Yep, you don’t get rid of it that easily.

Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Running the ball against MSU remains death; Western Michigan only ran for 67 yards at 2.5 yards per carry (3.5 YPC after you remove sacks), which brings Sparty's yards allowed on the ground up to almost 0.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Western Michigan was able to move the ball on MSU through the air, throwing for 285 yards at 7 yards per attempt.

When they play Michigan: Remember that thing where you were having passing success but insisted on running into the teeth of a defense that was focused on stopping the run and very good at stopping the run? Yeah, maybe don’t do that.

Next game: vs. Arizona State, 4:00 p.m., FOX (MSU -13)

Indiana (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Eastern Illinois, 52-0

Recap:

I think we can move on now.

This team is as frightening as: A fly in your meth lab.

Not particularly dangerous, but annoying and impossible to get rid of. Whether it makes for good television is largely a matter of perspective. But when you've got a battle with Gus Fring coming, this is the last shit you need. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: The inherent, foundational dumbness of the entirety of the Michigan/Indiana series.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: At 3.5 yards per carry on 31 carries, Stevie Scott has yet to get on track. Or untracked. Which raises the question: why do “on track” and “untracked” mean the same thing? According to Mirriam-Webster, it isn't exactly clear. Some suggest that "untracked" might be an eggcorn of "on track" (like saying 'for all intensive purposes' or saying something 'passes mustard'). Or it might mean "to get out of a rut," but even that doesn't make much sense, because ruts and tracks typically lead in the direction people typically travel. So, in summary, Indiana remains boring.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is even more more gooder than Eastern Illinois than they are Idaho or Howard.

Next game: vs. Ohio State, noon, FOX (Indiana +15)

Ohio State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 42-0

Recap: So, this isn't ideal. Cincinnati was about a 16-point underdog, and Ohio State had covered that midway through the second quarter. Justin Fields threw for 9 yards an attempt, JK Dobbins ran for 8.2 yards a carry, and Ohio State generally did whatever they felt like.

If there is one mitigating factor, it is that it turns out that Cincinnati's "hey, they might be good" win over UCLA may have instead been more of a "hey, Chip Kelly might have forgotten how to football" game.

This team is as frightening as: When they tried to nuke the alien spaceship in Independence Day, but it turns out, nope, still an invincible killing machine. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Invincible killing machine.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The U.S. Government has formally outlawed Ohio State, meaning they are no longer eligible to do sports.

When they play Michigan: They can't! Thank you, USPTO. We owe you one.

Next game: @ Indiana, noon, FOX (OSU -15)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (1-1, 0-0 C-USA)

Last week: Beat Tennessee State, 45-26

Recap: Asher O'Hara threw for 367 yards at 12.2 YPA, and MTSU didn't surrender a lead by allowing a basically uncontested 64-yard bomb with under 20 seconds left and the clock running, which ISN'T AS EASY AS IT SOUNDS AROUND THESE PARTS OKAY.

Next game: vs. Duke, 7:00 p.m. (MTSU +6)