It was Joey Baker O'Clock tonight [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan 90, Toledo 80 Comment Count

Alex.Drain March 14th, 2023 at 11:09 PM

Whenever a major conference team with NCAA Tournament ambitions winds up in the NIT, the first question one asks about their trajectory in the upcoming games is "how much do they care?". Do they want to be here? Or are they going through the motions? That was the question in my head as I got ready for Michigan's opening round NIT game against Toledo tonight, especially upon hearing the news that Jett Howard would miss the game with an ankle injury.

In the first half, the answer looked ambiguous, perhaps leading towards "yeah, they're mailing it in". Michigan allowed gobs of points out of the gate amid a sloppy start and ultimately trailed at the break. But the first few minutes of the second half answered the question, swinging the pendulum to "no, they want to win" as hot Michigan shooters powered the squad to an 11-0 run to start the half and from that point forward, they never relinquished the lead. It may not have been the greatest outing wire-to-wire, but good shooting and ball movement on offense mixed with solid defense after the disastrous opening resulted in a 90-80 Michigan victory over the Toledo Rockets at Crisler Center. 

Toledo came in marketed as an excellent offensive team and we saw plenty of that in the opening ten minutes of basketball. RayJ Dennis knocked down a shot on the first Toledo possession, then they forced a turnover on Will Tschetter and Ra'heim Morris finished it off with a fast-break layup. Right after that, Joey Baker turned it over and Moss converted on a nearly identical fast-break score. After Michigan finally got their first score, JT Shumate went right down the floor and hit a three. 9-2 Toledo, just 93 seconds into the game with a 4/4 shooting clip from the field. 

[Campredon]

Michigan picked up the scoring on their end of the floor, Joey Baker making a layup to begin what was a strong evening for the transfer wing playing in his (possible) final game in front of the Crisler Center crowd. Will Tschetter and Dug McDaniel threes drew Michigan within one and a few minutes later they tied it on a Baker layup, 18-18. The blistering pace of scoring didn't slow down, with the Rockets responding to the tied score by pouring in nine straight points in just over two minutes. When Dennis turned McDaniel over and scored on the ensuing layup, the Rockets took a 27-18 lead and amazingly, there were still over 11 minutes to play in the first half. At that juncture, Michigan was on pace to surrender ~120 points in regulation. 

You had to imagine things would slow down for the Rockets on offense, and they did. Michigan began to settle in defensively, something that began with a block by Terrance Williams II on a Setric Milner Jr. three pointer, which set up a fast-break layup for Hunter Dickinson. Michigan held Toledo without a field goal for roughly four minutes, a period during which they clawed back to a tie, as the pace of scoring slowed down on both sides. Kobe Bufkin's personal 7-0 run, a pair of layups and a triple, were his first points of the game and they drew Michigan to a 29-29 tie. The Wolverines finally took the lead on a Dickinson dunk, 35-33, and it seemed like the team would go into the break with a lead after Baker connected on a triple, but a Shumate answer just before the buzzer gave UT a 42-40 going into halftime. 

[Campredon]

At the break, it felt as though Michigan had begun to settle into the game after a dreadful opening. The team was shooting over 50% from the floor and exactly that mark from three, but having allowed Toledo to shoot 47% on FGs was an area for improvement. The team also needed more from Bufkin, whose aforementioned personal run were his only points of the half. Michigan, as the better team, were still favored, but the Rockets showed they weren't going away. The opening of the second frame would say a lot. 

Indeed it did, indicating that the home Wolverines wanted to take the game by the horns and make some noise in this National Invitation Tournament. The Maize & Blue came out of halftime red hot, Baker, McDaniel, and Bufkin hitting back-to-back-to-back threes on the first three Michigan possessions of the second half, with a pair of Toledo misses in between those possessions. Moss turned it over and Will Tschetter knocked down a mid-range jumper and just 2:14 into the second half, the Wolverines were ahead 51-42, almost before you could blink. 

From there, the game more or less seesawed around an equilibrium of Michigan by 5-10. Toledo occasionally strung some buckets and stops together to narrow the lead, cutting it to 61-57 and 66-63, but Michigan would respond and widen the lead back up. The score sat at 70-65 Wolverines at the under eight media timeout, eventually trimmed down to three on an AJ Edu layup, 72-69 with 6:23 to go. Michigan turned it over, and Dennis actually had a shot from three to tie it, but the shot was off the mark and that began the period where Michigan put the game away. Dickinson snagged the rebound, passed it up to Bufkin, who scored on the fast-break. They repeated the exact same formula on the next possession, Dennis miss, Dickinson rebound, fast-break layup, this time from Baker. 76-69 Michigan. 

[Campredon]

With just over five minutes to go, Toledo was in need of points. They didn't get it on their next try, though, as Dante Maddox Jr. missed a jumper and Bufkin extended the Michigan run with a silky fade-away. 78-69 Wolverines. Toledo finally snapped a three minute scoreless drought on a Setric Millner Jr. jumper, but despite forcing a couple Michigan misses, they couldn't cut into the lead... EJ Farmer missing the front-end of a one-and-one loomed large there. With 3:36 to go, Joey Baker canned yet another trey and Michigan now led by double digits, 81-71, and it was getting late for the Rockets. Millner would get an easy layup off a turnover forced by Toledo's press, but Juwan Howard promptly called timeout to instill a disciplined approach to his players. From that point on, Michigan wouldn't have much problem with the press, getting to the free throw line and making most of their attempts. UT's once-mighty offense had dried up, and time ran out on 'em. 90-80 Wolverines. 

As we suspected, this was a high-scoring affair, but when it was all said and done, the final metrics indicate a respectable defensive performance for Michigan. After getting the doors blown off early, they held Toledo to 53 points in the final 31 minutes and the Rockets' final shooting percentage was just over 40%, only 8/24 from three. Millner and Shumate led the way with 19 and 18 points for Toledo, but only four Rockets scored in double figures. As for Michigan, a scorching second half (15/23 from FG!!) powered them to 90 points, and 13/23 from three for the game ain't too shabby. Joey Baker, elevated into the starting lineup for Jett Howard, scored 21 points (5/7 from three). Bufkin came on line in the second half to lead the team with 23, while Dickinson added 19 and McDaniel had 16 (4/6 from three), with eight assists. Youssef Khayat and Jace Howard both saw the floor, although they combined for two total points. 

Michigan is now into the second round of the NIT and, as repeated a nauseating amount of times by the ESPN2 TV crew, are still perfect all-time at home in NIT games. The next round won't be at home, as 2nd-seeded Vanderbilt knocked off Yale tonight, so the Wolverines will be headed down to Nashville to take on the Commodores. That game will be either Saturday or Sunday at a time TBD. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^

I do think recency matters for college kids that are learning on steep learning curves.

Since February 1 right after that Alabama disaster, Vandy is the 37th best team in college basketball per torvik and Michigan is the 22nd best.  Both have been significantly better in the past 1.5 months than the season as a whole.

So this game is more like a 6 vs 11 seed in the NCAA tourney.

But it's at Vandy so my guess is it'll be close to a pick em.  Michigan may be favored by one or two.

PhilipVU94

March 15th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^

Agreed with all that and there's circumstantial evidence this may be a trend with Stackhouse. Last year Torvik has us 93rd through Jan 31 and 43rd after it. Year before that, 2021, 139th through end of January, 67th thereafter. 

Of course Jerry played 18 years in the NBA and coached for 4 in various pro ball capacities. I sorta wonder if that's influencing how he perceives the development of a season. 

Ken Pomeroy weights for recency, so I assume Torvik and NET do as well. However, it seems plausible that some coaches or programs might have a stronger time trend than others.

goodfella96

March 15th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^

They mentioned that Baker had applied for a waiver for a 6th year since Duke burned his redshirt during his freshman year and played 18 minutes. Anyone know if he plans to stick around if granted the waiver? I wouldn’t mind at all if he came back. Reed has mentioned how much Baker has helped him adjust to the college game so he provides some good leadership too. 

TESOE

March 15th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^

Toledo was fast small and offensively competent. I'm not sure who could have come in which is your point. Against a more posty or taller team we have more depth in Reed. Jett was out. IDK. This team can win the NIT. That is my focus for now. If Hunter comes back we can talk about the back forty and get this farm functional on the next level.

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^

Well, the starting PG has been out and last night the starting small forward was out so the "bench", ie Dug and Baker started and played great.  Is there much depth behind them?  Not really, but yeah, injuries to two starters will do that to your depth.

This game was also unique in that it wasn't a good matchup for playing two bigs so Reed didn't play much.  And wasn't needed.

If you score 90, why is the bench share a problem?  Who cares?  They scored the ball, that's what matters.

The story of the season is that starters have either been hurt (Llewellyn) or downright not very good (Jett and Twill/Tschetter) aside from Kobe and Hunter.

yttric

March 15th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^

We all realize that Jett's "injury" is probably just protecting him for the draft right?  Also I think we are a better team without him. I know that sounds dumb but look at out offensive flow without him vs the hero ball we play with him in. Also he is a massive defensive black hole. 

Mich1993

March 15th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^

I don't disagree with the negative comments about Jett, although they're probably a bit over the top.  His play is probably not that far off from a typical talented freshman.  Streaky, shot happy, loses focus at times.  I would like to see him come back next year. 

Maybe he'll get an NBA evaluation that says pay attention, play defense and rebound, and you'll be a lottery pick.

TESOE

March 15th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

I just can't comprehend lottery picks these days. Houston going in 2nd round seemed too high but was lower than projected? Drafting on potential is bogus and expensive. They should allow drafting and players to stay in college to develop, similar to hockey. I don't understand the rules or benefits here obviously.

jmblue

March 15th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

We all realize that Jett's "injury" is probably just protecting him for the draft right?

I think it's more than that.  He's suffered two ankle injuries in the past six weeks or so and they've cost him multiple games.  Ankle injuries take a while to heal.  It's likely that he hasn't really been healthy for some time, and while he'd probably give it a go if we were in the tournament, now that we're in the NIT he's been allowed to shut it down.

PhilipVU94

March 15th, 2023 at 9:00 PM ^

We can all get excited about Morehead State leading Clemson by 2 and the ball with 33 seconds left. The regional final will be in Nashville or Ann Arbor if this result holds.

 

Final 68-64 Morehead State. This is the part where I seize upon this tiny sample of data to say even with only 5 NCAA entrants I knew the ACC was overrated all along.