youssef khayat

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With roughly a third of the regular season over for Michigan, this is a good time for a macro level look in an effort to understand where the Wolverines are and where things might be going as we head into the thick of conference play. 

Real

Perimeter Shotmaking. The Wolverines are connecting on 37.1% of their triples as a team, good for #50 nationally per Torvik. While the raw percentage is certainly indicative of the team's shooting prowess to a certain extent, a deeper dive is necessary to gain a full understanding.

Per Synergy, Michigan is putting up 1.09pps on catch and shoot jumpers, landing in the 77th percentile across the nation. While that number is certainly good, it's not quite elite territory. A closer look reveals the Wolverines may actually be underperforming a bit on these looks. The team is at 1.10pps/51st percentile on 67 unguarded catch and shoot attempts. On the other hand, 1.09pps/82nd percentile on 128 catch and shoot attempts that are guarded. It's easy to see where Michigan might experience some positive regression with respect to the unguarded attempts.

Numbers aside, the distribution is very encouraging in terms of sustainability + projection. The Wolverines have four players shooting volume triples on percentages that you want to see. McDaniel/Burnett/Williams/Nkamhoua are all above 35% from distance while taking at least three triples per game. Throw in a high-efficiency/low-volume shooter like Tschetter and Michigan is very likely to have at least a few guys stretching the floor per game, as we have 4-5 viable options at different positions to ensure there aren't many games where the well is completely dry. 

In addition to the raw percentage and distribution, the variety of shot types also lend credence to legitimate shooting prowess. We're not talking stationary corner triples exclusively here. We have difficult shotmakers in the backcourt and Dug McDaniel is leading the charge.

To quantify, Dug is 83rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers at 1.07pps. A sample size of 45 shots isn't necessarily big, but it is large enough to say that he's not a guy you can go under ballscreens against without penalty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP we get a bit more real and not so real]

Whenever a major conference team with NCAA Tournament ambitions winds up in the NIT, the first question one asks about their trajectory in the upcoming games is "how much do they care?". Do they want to be here? Or are they going through the motions? That was the question in my head as I got ready for Michigan's opening round NIT game against Toledo tonight, especially upon hearing the news that Jett Howard would miss the game with an ankle injury.

In the first half, the answer looked ambiguous, perhaps leading towards "yeah, they're mailing it in". Michigan allowed gobs of points out of the gate amid a sloppy start and ultimately trailed at the break. But the first few minutes of the second half answered the question, swinging the pendulum to "no, they want to win" as hot Michigan shooters powered the squad to an 11-0 run to start the half and from that point forward, they never relinquished the lead. It may not have been the greatest outing wire-to-wire, but good shooting and ball movement on offense mixed with solid defense after the disastrous opening resulted in a 90-80 Michigan victory over the Toledo Rockets at Crisler Center. 

Toledo came in marketed as an excellent offensive team and we saw plenty of that in the opening ten minutes of basketball. RayJ Dennis knocked down a shot on the first Toledo possession, then they forced a turnover on Will Tschetter and Ra'heim Morris finished it off with a fast-break layup. Right after that, Joey Baker turned it over and Moss converted on a nearly identical fast-break score. After Michigan finally got their first score, JT Shumate went right down the floor and hit a three. 9-2 Toledo, just 93 seconds into the game with a 4/4 shooting clip from the field. 

[Campredon]

Michigan picked up the scoring on their end of the floor, Joey Baker making a layup to begin what was a strong evening for the transfer wing playing in his (possible) final game in front of the Crisler Center crowd. Will Tschetter and Dug McDaniel threes drew Michigan within one and a few minutes later they tied it on a Baker layup, 18-18. The blistering pace of scoring didn't slow down, with the Rockets responding to the tied score by pouring in nine straight points in just over two minutes. When Dennis turned McDaniel over and scored on the ensuing layup, the Rockets took a 27-18 lead and amazingly, there were still over 11 minutes to play in the first half. At that juncture, Michigan was on pace to surrender ~120 points in regulation. 

You had to imagine things would slow down for the Rockets on offense, and they did. Michigan began to settle in defensively, something that began with a block by Terrance Williams II on a Setric Milner Jr. three pointer, which set up a fast-break layup for Hunter Dickinson. Michigan held Toledo without a field goal for roughly four minutes, a period during which they clawed back to a tie, as the pace of scoring slowed down on both sides. Kobe Bufkin's personal 7-0 run, a pair of layups and a triple, were his first points of the game and they drew Michigan to a 29-29 tie. The Wolverines finally took the lead on a Dickinson dunk, 35-33, and it seemed like the team would go into the break with a lead after Baker connected on a triple, but a Shumate answer just before the buzzer gave UT a 42-40 going into halftime. 

[Campredon]

At the break, it felt as though Michigan had begun to settle into the game after a dreadful opening. The team was shooting over 50% from the floor and exactly that mark from three, but having allowed Toledo to shoot 47% on FGs was an area for improvement. The team also needed more from Bufkin, whose aforementioned personal run were his only points of the half. Michigan, as the better team, were still favored, but the Rockets showed they weren't going away. The opening of the second frame would say a lot. 

Indeed it did, indicating that the home Wolverines wanted to take the game by the horns and make some noise in this National Invitation Tournament. The Maize & Blue came out of halftime red hot, Baker, McDaniel, and Bufkin hitting back-to-back-to-back threes on the first three Michigan possessions of the second half, with a pair of Toledo misses in between those possessions. Moss turned it over and Will Tschetter knocked down a mid-range jumper and just 2:14 into the second half, the Wolverines were ahead 51-42, almost before you could blink. 

From there, the game more or less seesawed around an equilibrium of Michigan by 5-10. Toledo occasionally strung some buckets and stops together to narrow the lead, cutting it to 61-57 and 66-63, but Michigan would respond and widen the lead back up. The score sat at 70-65 Wolverines at the under eight media timeout, eventually trimmed down to three on an AJ Edu layup, 72-69 with 6:23 to go. Michigan turned it over, and Dennis actually had a shot from three to tie it, but the shot was off the mark and that began the period where Michigan put the game away. Dickinson snagged the rebound, passed it up to Bufkin, who scored on the fast-break. They repeated the exact same formula on the next possession, Dennis miss, Dickinson rebound, fast-break layup, this time from Baker. 76-69 Michigan. 

[Campredon]

With just over five minutes to go, Toledo was in need of points. They didn't get it on their next try, though, as Dante Maddox Jr. missed a jumper and Bufkin extended the Michigan run with a silky fade-away. 78-69 Wolverines. Toledo finally snapped a three minute scoreless drought on a Setric Millner Jr. jumper, but despite forcing a couple Michigan misses, they couldn't cut into the lead... EJ Farmer missing the front-end of a one-and-one loomed large there. With 3:36 to go, Joey Baker canned yet another trey and Michigan now led by double digits, 81-71, and it was getting late for the Rockets. Millner would get an easy layup off a turnover forced by Toledo's press, but Juwan Howard promptly called timeout to instill a disciplined approach to his players. From that point on, Michigan wouldn't have much problem with the press, getting to the free throw line and making most of their attempts. UT's once-mighty offense had dried up, and time ran out on 'em. 90-80 Wolverines. 

As we suspected, this was a high-scoring affair, but when it was all said and done, the final metrics indicate a respectable defensive performance for Michigan. After getting the doors blown off early, they held Toledo to 53 points in the final 31 minutes and the Rockets' final shooting percentage was just over 40%, only 8/24 from three. Millner and Shumate led the way with 19 and 18 points for Toledo, but only four Rockets scored in double figures. As for Michigan, a scorching second half (15/23 from FG!!) powered them to 90 points, and 13/23 from three for the game ain't too shabby. Joey Baker, elevated into the starting lineup for Jett Howard, scored 21 points (5/7 from three). Bufkin came on line in the second half to lead the team with 23, while Dickinson added 19 and McDaniel had 16 (4/6 from three), with eight assists. Youssef Khayat and Jace Howard both saw the floor, although they combined for two total points. 

Michigan is now into the second round of the NIT and, as repeated a nauseating amount of times by the ESPN2 TV crew, are still perfect all-time at home in NIT games. The next round won't be at home, as 2nd-seeded Vanderbilt knocked off Yale tonight, so the Wolverines will be headed down to Nashville to take on the Commodores. That game will be either Saturday or Sunday at a time TBD. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]