YOU ARE OUR LORD AND SAVIOR, JAKE MOODY [Patrick Barron]

Michigan 19, Illinois 17 Comment Count

Alex.Drain November 19th, 2022 at 5:27 PM

Raise your hand if you had November 26 on your mind as you turned on the TV today to watch Michigan vs. Illinois. Raise your hand if your thoughts have mostly been concentrated on The Game, on Ohio State's defense and their great receivers, on the stakes of a vaunted 11-0 vs. 11-0 clash. Raise your hand if you have booked hotel rooms in Indianapolis just in case and have been scheming up CFP scenarios. If your hand is raised, you are in the same boat as Michigan Football, who rested key starters on injury precaution, rolled out a vanilla game plan, and were late to adjust when things got tight. Michigan seemingly did not respect the hungry, desperate, violent, and well-coached Illinois Fighting Illini across from them until it was nearly too late, taking shots to the mouth and staring down the specter of an undefeated season slipping away before a clutch fourth quarter- boosted by three massive FGs from Jake Moody- turned the tide and got them a victory. It was ugly, but a win is a win. 

The funny thing is that the game did not seem like it would be a nail-biter early... or really for the entirety of the first half. The first drive of the game for Michigan was exactly how they drew it up, with a Blake Corum 37 yard run getting things going. JJ McCarthy got in rhythm, three passes to get Michigan inside the ten and then the Wolverines bully-balled their way into the end zone for Corum's 18th TD of the season. Just like that it was 7-0. After Michigan forced a three-and-out on Illinois' opening possession of the game, this game seemed to be on track for another comfortable win. 

Wind played a factor in this game and with the wind at their backs, Illinois was able to pin Michigan inside the five for the second series. That didn't matter much at first, a brilliant RB screen to Corum on 3rd down picked up 41, and could have gone for more if Corum had not gone out of bounds. Michigan drove into Illini territory but then ran out of gas after two Corum runs were stuffed. Rather than lining Jake Moody up for a long FG into the wind, they punted. Brad Robbins delivered a dismal punt (the wind played a role) for just 19 yards. 

[Patrick Barron]

Still, Michigan was in command. Their defense muzzled Illinois quickly for another three-and-out and their third drive got out to midfield before stalling. Roman Wilson couldn't come down with a catchable ball, a pass was too high for Max Bredeson and pressure forced McCarthy out of bounds. Michigan punted again but were only able to get Illinois down to the 20 yard line. The Fighting Illini started to get going on this drive, Chase Brown finding more running room on the ground and Tommy DeVito finding his groove drove Illinois into Michigan territory but it was their turn to see a drive unravel. Isaiah Williams caught a pass just short of the sticks and Illinois decided to go for it on 4th & 1. Michigan trotted out a pair of true freshman DTs in Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and the duo stuffed Brown on the attempt, forcing a huge turnover on downs. 

Michigan was unable to capitalize on the solid field position due to an extremely questionable holding call on a great passing play from McCarthy to Roman Wilson and the ball was quickly back in the hands of Illinois, where the offense picked up where it left off. Illinois began to use tempo more heavily and the higher pace allowed them to land a few body blows on the Michigan defense. Chase Brown was running hard, Isaiah Williams flashed as an end-around specialist, and DeVito continued his strong day. Those three powered Illinois into the red zone and the team lined up to go for it on 4th & 1 from the 6. Unfortunately a false start negated the opportunity and they settled for a FG to cut the deficit to 7-3. 

The home team got the ball back with 4:03 remaining in the first half and had their best drive since the opener. Corum was churning out yards on the ground and McCarthy threw a strike to Ronnie Bell into a hole in Illinois' zone defense (one of their few zone snaps all day). It was 2nd & 10 on the Illinois 17 when Michigan gave the ball to Corum, who cut outside, around the corner, and then took a direct helmet shot to his left knee. Corum visibly reacted instantly, causing him to drop the ball just before hitting the ground. Replay officials determined that it was a fumble and Illinois had recovered, in part due to the Michigan players stopping to look after their teammate in screaming pain. Not just had Michigan lost its superstar RB for (essentially) the rest of the game, but they had turned it over inside the 15. 

Illinois got the ball back with 1:38 remaining but a holding penalty prevented any chance of a two minute drill. Set to get the ball out of halftime, Bret Bielema was content to run the clock down and head to the locker room trailing 7-3. Though the game was competitive at halftime, most Michigan fans were more concerned about the health of Corum than about losing the game. As it would turn out, their fear on the former turned out to be somewhat unfounded, while their lack of fear about the latter was glaringly absent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More recap]

[Patrick Barron]

There was good news out of halftime, as Corum returned to the field and took warmups. Illinois went three-and-out on their opening series of the half and Michigan would give the second play from scrimmage on offense to Corum. He rushed for 5 yards and got a rousing cheer from the crowd. However, that would be the last we'd see of Corum, donning a large winter coat and taking his helmet off for the remainder of the game. The Michigan drive in progress turned out to be a solid one. One play after the Corum rush, McCarthy found Cornelius Johnson open for a first down on a long catch-and-run into Illini territory. Three plays after that, McCarthy had Andrel Anthony running open on a fade, but could not put the ball where it needed to be. Michigan settled for a 46 yard FG, which Moody banged through. 10-3. 

The next ten minutes is when this game turned upside down, from one that felt annoyingly close but Michigan was clearly better in, to one that had your author tweeting "Illinois is the better team". So what happened? Illinois embarked on two drives that spanned 67 and 63 yards and both found the end zone. For the first time in the entirety of B1G play, Michigan's defense was worse in the second half. The defensive line was getting shoved around for the first time all season, Tommy DeVito was dealing to somewhat open receivers, and LB play was as bad as it's been in a month (didn't help that both Jimmy Rolder and Kalel Mullings saw time during this stretch). The first drive ended on an 8 yard Chase Brown TD run that seemed to be an indictment of tackling, but it was actually the less embarrassing of the two drives. The second ended with Brown galloping 37 yards for a TD. 

In between the two Illinois drives, Michigan had a solid drive of their own, linked together by an Isaiah Gash screen pass that went for 20 on third down. They marched into Illini territory but increasingly found no running room on early downs. Just in the way that their defensive line was getting whipped in the trenches, so was the offensive line. The Wolverines set up to go for it on 4th & 6 from the Illinois 37. McCarthy thought that Illinois jumped across the line prematurely (it sure looked close in real time) and assumed it was a free play. He bombed it down the field, perhaps his best throw of the day, perfectly placed between two Illinois defenders in a place that only Andrel Anthony could catch it. If he hauls it in, it's a TD. Instead, it went right through the hands and fell incomplete. To add insult to injury, the referees never threw an offside flag and it was a turnover on downs. 

[Patrick Barron]

Thus, when Brown scored his second TD of the game, the score sat at 17-10 Illinois. Michigan got the ball back, ran it once for one yard, had a pass broken up, and then McCarthy scrambled short of the sticks on third down. Punt. The fourth quarter was about to begin, Illinois would have the football up 17-10, and at that juncture, they seemed to be the better team. They were winning the battle in the trenches, were getting better play from WRs and QBs, and seemed to be better coached too. Just 15 minutes remained in the contest and for the first time all season, Michigan's backs were against the wall. 

The fourth quarter would see both teams get three possessions. Illinois turned it over on downs once and punted twice. Michigan got points on all three (all FGs). That was when the game was won and lost. Michigan's defense got it going, with DJ Turner making a great PBU and then a bad snap helping Michigan get off the field on a three-and-out. The offense got favorable field position following a terrific punt return from Ronnie Bell, taking it all the way to the Illini 38. A quick pass to Colston Loveland got the Wolverines into FG range and though that would be the only first down they'd get on the drive, it was enough for Moody to boot a 41 yarder through. 17-13. 

Illinois got the football and moved the ball decently well, a WR screen picking up a first on 3rd & 3, then Gemon Green curiously playing with tons of cushion despite Illinois not being a vertical passing team giving up another first down. Illinois decided to try their one deep shot of the game and it fell incomplete, which was followed by a run stuff. On 3rd & 8 from the Michigan 33, a screen for Brown was blown up by Rod Moore and Bielema was faced with a major decision. Going into the wind, it was too long to kick a FG and rather than play for field position, he played to win. Unfortunately for Bert, his LG Isaiah Adams was not in sync with the snap count and was late getting going, allowing Taylor Upshaw to tear into the backfield. DeVito was forced to scramble and DJ Turner came down to make an undefeated season-saving tackle short of the line to gain. 

[Bryan Fuller]

Michigan was now gifted favorable field position again. Colston Loveland was the first target and he ran for 27 yards after the catch, well into Illinois territory. A few plays later on 3rd & 8, McCarthy fumbled the snap, picked it up juuuuuust barely with his knees off the ground, rolled to his right and found Cornelius Johnson for a massive first down. The Wolverines would find themselves in 4th & 5 not long after and Michigan ran a brilliant man-beater play to Roman Wilson for a first down bringing them to the 14 yard line. On 2nd down, McCarthy rolled and had both Isaiah Gash and Loveland open. Loveland would've been a sure TD while Gash likely would have been able to catch and run for at least a first down, if not a TD. McCarthy targeted Gash and the RB dropped it. On the very next play Loveland was open for a TD again but McCarthy could not feather the pass to him. A day of what ifs. Moody made a short FG and the score sat 17-16 with 3:14 left. 

Michigan had all three timeouts in their pockets and Illinois was content to slam into the line twice in a row, setting up 3rd & 7 with the game on the line. DeVito again decided to try and scramble for the first, coming up one yard short. The referees threw a flag for holding too, and Michigan interestingly accepted the penalty to back Illinois up. Bielema predictably ran it again and waved the white flag. Michigan used their final TO and the punt into the wind would be downed just past midfield. 

The Maize & Blue offense needed only ~25 yards to get Moody into FG range and had 2:15 to do it. After two short yardage gains, Michigan decided to run CJ Stokes on 3rd & short and like nearly every between the tackles run in the second half, it was stuffed. Now the undefeated season was on the line, 4th & 3 from the Illinois 45. Michigan spread out wide, ran a variation of the ole pick play to get Isaiah Gash open, and McCarthy hit him for a first down. McCarthy then looked for Bell down the field and drew a DPI call, 15 yards moving Michigan well into Moody's range.

[Bryan Fuller]

Two plays later McCarthy threw a marginal ball to Cornelius Johnson, who made a diving catch over the middle for five yards. Michigan ran up to spike the ball, which would then set up a FG as it was 3rd down, but before they could, the referees stopped the game to review it. Though some expected an overturn, the replay officials upheld the call and Michigan got one more play. McCarthy dangerously threw a ball that was batted at the line but it fell incomplete. With under 15 seconds left, Moody lined up for a 35 yard field goal. The snap was good, the hold was good, and the kick was good. 19-17 Michigan, 9 seconds remaining. 

Illinois let the kickoff go into the end zone and DeVito completed a pass to Brown for 14 yards, being tackled with 1 second on the clock. They used a timeout to set up a Hail Mary but DeVito's arm (and the wind) meant the pass was nowhere near the end zone. It fell incomplete around the Michigan 20 and the game was over. Michigan had survived. Perfect season intact. 

This game was messy and wild but it was a win. The offense had a topsy turvy performance, excellent against a great defense before Corum's injury (just done in by a bad luck turnover and poor field position luck), but then sputtered after Corum exited. Their OL mashed early and then had little success late. Illinois stacked the boxes and dialed up blitz after blitz, daring Michigan to go through the air against their solid corners in man coverage. It was a taste of Don Brown's medicine so to speak and the Wolverines had trouble with it. McCarthy made some mistakes, but his day also looks very different if Andrel Anthony and Isaiah Gash catch those footballs. Yet again, he did not get enough help from his receivers. 

[Bryan Fuller]

Corum's injury will be a big story in the week leading up to The Game. That he came back and played another snap is a good sign and the hope has to be that he was rested for precautionary reasons like Donovan Edwards, Luke Schoonmaker, and Mike Morris. On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan generally played well except for those two humiliating drives. Nearly 40% of Illinois' yardage for the game came on those two possessions and otherwise they didn't have too much daylight. To give the Illini credit, DeVito played one of his best games of the season and Brown is a hell of a player. They are a well-coached, tough, physical football team who is not one you can disrespect. Michigan tried to get by going vanilla and resting everyone who wasn't 99.9% healthy. They very nearly paid a massive price. 

On special teams, Jake Moody was the MVP. On a cold and windy day that many college kickers would've crumbled in, he made four FGs, three of them moderately to quite difficult kicks and one being for the game. He has ice in his veins and is one of the best kickers to ever wear the winged helmet. Brad Robbins on the flip side had a disappointing outing, whether it was the wind or something else affecting him, he was part of the reason Michigan lost the field position battle in the first half. 

The Wolverines are now 11-0 for the first time under Jim Harbaugh and for just the third time in the past 50 years, joining 1997 and 2006. One of those teams beat Ohio State and won a national title and one of those teams did not. Those are the stakes now for the Wolverines. No matter how rickety they were today, it doesn't erase a season's worth of work showing that this is a very good football team. Ohio State happens to be struggling against Maryland at the time of this writing. Neither team was thinking all too much about their opponents today. They were both thinking about The Game. That's next Saturday at noon on FOX. A game to decide the season. Beat Ohio. 

Comments

bronxblue

November 19th, 2022 at 6:17 PM ^

Good writeup.

I would like to point out that UM struggling to run the ball in the second half with their 3rd and 4th-string RBs isn't particularly surprising.  Yes Illinois bottled them up but there were also some missed cuts and holes that Corum or Edwards would have hit.  So I'm not as worried about that given the success earlier on.

The receivers missed some catchable balls but at this point can we stop acting like the receivers are letting McCarthy down every week without also acknowledging that McCarthy is making bad decisions.  He ran on a couple of pass attempts where had he looked around he'd have seen Bell or Johnson open.  He straight up missed Loveland twice on throws he should be able to make.  He overthrew down the middle twice a d while Anthony missed that one long throw the other was more marginal and that was on McCarthy somewhat.  And finally, McNamara did way better throwing the ball with essentially the same receiver room last year.  McCarthy is a good QB but he's not a star quite yet, and it's a bit tiring to keep seeing "oh, had McCarthy completed more throws his day would have looked better" being treated as some panacea for what has been a pretty uninspiring post OOC slate of performances.

I do expect the LBs to come in for a hurting in this game as well as RPS.  Illinois had some good playcalls but a couple of Brown runs were dead to rights yards before he was brought down due to poor tackling and missed gaps.  I assume that'll be cleaned up a bit next weekend but it's a real concern.

On to OSU undefeated, though, so hard to complain too much.

Don

November 19th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^

Given the remarkable ability of the program to keep injuries quiet during the season—we didn't find out until Cade's surgery that he was banged up last season—it wouldn't surprise me at all if we find out after the year is over that McCarthy has not been truly 100% for a good part of the season. He missed all of spring ball because of an injury but did not have surgery, and I wonder if it's bothering him again.

bronxblue

November 19th, 2022 at 9:48 PM ^

I wouldn't be shocked but he was also missing guys downfield basically as soon as they weren't blindingly wide open against bad defenses.  That may be a coincidence but that feels more systemic than purely based on injury.  And his penchant for running quickly when his first two reads aren't open has been an issue for a bit.

Again, he might well be hurt but there's a fair bit of evidence he's still learning the spot and finding it harder to beat good defenses.

DennisFranklinDaMan

November 19th, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^

Yeah, on the podcasts Brian keeps defending JJ and blaming the receivers, and I agree, none of them made a play for him today, but ... at some point we're going to have to acknowledge that JJ hasn't had a genuinely good game in many weeks.

I'm a huge fan of McCarthy's. I like everything he brings, and I remain absolutely convinced that at some point things are going to start clicking. But we have to at least be honest: He's not performing as well as we had hoped so far this year.

bronxblue

November 19th, 2022 at 9:55 PM ^

Yeah, I think he's been solid but if McNamara hadn't been hurt this year he absolutely would have taken some series from McCarthy these past couple of weeks.  

McCarthy has broken 8 ypa twice all year in conference - Maryland and IU.  Cade did it 5 times last year with basically the same receivers.  It can't all just be these guys struggling to get separation.

bighouseinmate

November 20th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^

The wrs haven’t helped JJ much these past few weeks. Just yesterday, for example, you can point to two instances that would’ve likely been tds where the ball was thrown on the money yet neither Anthony nor gash caught the ball. Gash’s drop is especially relevant because edwards would’ve caught that easy and scored. Granted, Loveland was wide open in the end zone, but watching the play several times I can see how JJ would’ve missed that with a couple guys close to the throwing lane for that pass. It’s entirely possible he just didn’t see Loveland and gash was wide open with a huge running lane after the catch that was staring JJ right in the face.

That’s not to say that on quite a few passes JJ didn’t do himself any favors. A sure thing Loveland TD was way overthrown, along with a number of other passes in this game and over the past couple of weeks. But if the wrs had caught the ones that hit them in the hands, JJ very well might’ve been around 60-65% completion percentage and had another 300yd game with a couple of tds. 

mitchewr

November 21st, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^

How on earth can you possibly expect JJ to have a "genuinely good" game when the WRs keep dropping everything? They literally dropped at least TWO touchdown passes from JJ in this game. Those two drops flip the whole script and this game isn't even given a second thought.

JJ can hit guys in the hands all day long...but it doesn't matter when they keep dropping the ball

Don

November 19th, 2022 at 6:19 PM ^

"The Wolverines are now 11-0 for the first time under Jim Harbaugh and for just the third time in the past 50 years, joining 1997 and 2006."

Not true—the 1971 team went 11-0 during the regular season.

Interestingly, that 1971 team was 10-0 and ranked #3 when they played a lousy 3-5 Purdue team down in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers held Michigan to their lowest point total of the year, and Michigan's Dana Coin kicked the game-winning FG with 40 seconds to go, resulting in a 20-17 win.

Magnum P.I.

November 19th, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^

Illinois is a well-coached, tough, physical football team who is not one you can disrespect.

Unless you are a shit program like MSU or Purdue, in which case you can steamroll them at their own house. 

This was a shitshow game that many are already papering over. That's fine because we won, but holy crow we need to sort some things out this week.

DennisFranklinDaMan

November 19th, 2022 at 6:23 PM ^

So many plays where if one thing goes differently, we lose. So many fourth down conversions. Key stops. Moody field goals, obviously. I mean, there must have been six different occasions where, if Illinois gets one stop, or we fail to get one, we lose that game -- and we got them all.

This may honestly be the luckiest Michigan football win, across the board, I've ever seen. You can say "a win's a win" or "clutch when it mattered," or all that post hoc nonsense, but let's be honest: For this one day, the Football Gods smiled on us.

Damn. Moody has ice in his veins.

Don

November 19th, 2022 at 6:42 PM ^

"but let's be honest: For this one day, the Football Gods smiled on us."

Maybe so, but fergodsakes we deserve to have the Gods smile on us every once in a while.

I can assure you that in virtually every big upset I've had the misfortune to watch in over half a century of watching Michigan football, things have gone perfectly and repeatedly for our opponents to make those upsets possible.

Today was just one occasion where our opponents will have to existentially complain about everything going Michigan's way when we needed it.

DennisFranklinDaMan

November 19th, 2022 at 6:50 PM ^

I always like that, when things do go our way, Michigan fans still have a way to complain about how we're actually entitled to it. :-)

I don't know, man. I guarantee you Illinois fans, and Indiana, and Penn State, etc. etc., don't have much patience for Michigan fans whining about how hard it is to be us.

JBLPSYCHED

November 20th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^

It's not about what other teams' fans think of us, obviously. The reference to a lifetime of watching Michigan football, and watching our (often underdog) opponents suddenly do everything right against all odds to beat us is something that I personally relate to and agree with.

Despite what other teams' fans may think, it's hard to be a Michigan fan. Yes this is whining to some extent, I'll admit that, but there are relatively few days like yesterday when we get the breaks and make the breaks and execute the plays to survive an upset bid.

I don't know what yesterday's events mean for next Saturday, I suppose it mostly depends on Corum and our other injured players being at or near full strength. Beyond that I'll just say thank God we survived and advanced and I appreciate the door remaining open to all of our goals and aspirations. Go Blue!

gbdub

November 19th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^

Michigan lost their best player AND wiped a probable TD off the board on the same play in the first half. 

Illinois got away with an offsides AND had a WR drop a TD AND got the ball back on downs in the same play. 

Michigan got a long gain wiped out by a really weak holding call. 

Illinois’ CB was holding arms all day and didn’t get called for it until the last drive.

Illinois had plenty of good fortune. 

jmblue

November 19th, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^

For this one day, the Football Gods smiled on us.

I would not say that about a game in which our best player got hurt.

Not to mention that the play in which he got hurt was rotten luck: he instinctively reached for his leg in pain and fumbled the ball, which cost us points after a long drive.

Between that, and the cheap holding call that killed one drive, and the offsides no-call that prompted JJ to throw it deep which Anthony let pass through his hands on 4th down . . . it seemed to me like we were snakebitten for most of the day, not lucky.  Fortunately we managed to overcome it.

RJWolvie

November 19th, 2022 at 8:29 PM ^

Or if Anthony catches a ball in his hands, or if Corum doesn’t fumble as we’re going in for two score lead, or if pick any of your favorite of the dozen or so receiver drops… I think this one had a lot of high leverage flubs or weirdness or inches, and to my eye more of them rolled against than for us. It was an our poorest game of the season, against our 3rd or 4th best opponent: we escaped. Let’s see what happens next week. OSU looked very stoppable against an overmatched Maryland today too

DennisFranklinDaMan

November 19th, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^

Also, dig this, about Moody, from the post-game summary on espn.com:

"I don't know if any of us really quite comprehend what that feeling's like that he experienced today," Harbaugh said. "When he came into the locker room, every guy was chanting his name. It was a tremendous celebration."

Awesome.

blueheron

November 19th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^

Recalling the 1997 and 2006 seasons is interesting. When the handful of weak spots of the '06 team are considered, it seems amazing that they ran the table up to OSU.

I think this year's team is more '06 than '97.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

November 19th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^

Anthony has to catch that ball. It would’ve changed the whole trajectory.

Regardless, the guys found a way to win even when 1/2 the offense was injured and the defense looked lethargic until Q4.

Moody saved the day, long live Moody!

growler4

November 19th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^

Can someone please explain to me why Moody wasn't sent out on 3rd down to kick the game winning field goal?

If there's a problem with the snap and we maintain possession, you can try again on 4th down.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 20th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^

It was going to be.  Then they blew the whistle so they could review Johnson's catch.  (I absolutely cannot believe they called that a catch.  Let's be honest: horrible call.)  So Michigan's coaches decided they had time to run some crazy pass play, instead of a spike, that had a chance of being picked off.  Bizarre decision.  Better move would've been to let the clock run down to like three and then spike it.

turtleboy

November 19th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^

Severely depleted, unlucky, error prone, but didn't quit, and still found a way to win in the end. I'm glad the team took this opportunity to get the self inflicted problems out of the way today, so they can flush the Buckeyes in the toilet bowl next Saturday. Get healthy, everyone. 

Bo Glue

November 19th, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^

Last year, I decided finally I have suffered too much heartbreak to even watch the game any more. And we are undefeated in the rivarly since then. So I will keep up the streak. That said, my confidence is ever so slightly higher than that rock bottom. But...that would only be if allowed myself a sliver of hope. Those scars haven't healed just yet.