chase brown

Raise your hand if you had November 26 on your mind as you turned on the TV today to watch Michigan vs. Illinois. Raise your hand if your thoughts have mostly been concentrated on The Game, on Ohio State's defense and their great receivers, on the stakes of a vaunted 11-0 vs. 11-0 clash. Raise your hand if you have booked hotel rooms in Indianapolis just in case and have been scheming up CFP scenarios. If your hand is raised, you are in the same boat as Michigan Football, who rested key starters on injury precaution, rolled out a vanilla game plan, and were late to adjust when things got tight. Michigan seemingly did not respect the hungry, desperate, violent, and well-coached Illinois Fighting Illini across from them until it was nearly too late, taking shots to the mouth and staring down the specter of an undefeated season slipping away before a clutch fourth quarter- boosted by three massive FGs from Jake Moody- turned the tide and got them a victory. It was ugly, but a win is a win. 

The funny thing is that the game did not seem like it would be a nail-biter early... or really for the entirety of the first half. The first drive of the game for Michigan was exactly how they drew it up, with a Blake Corum 37 yard run getting things going. JJ McCarthy got in rhythm, three passes to get Michigan inside the ten and then the Wolverines bully-balled their way into the end zone for Corum's 18th TD of the season. Just like that it was 7-0. After Michigan forced a three-and-out on Illinois' opening possession of the game, this game seemed to be on track for another comfortable win. 

Wind played a factor in this game and with the wind at their backs, Illinois was able to pin Michigan inside the five for the second series. That didn't matter much at first, a brilliant RB screen to Corum on 3rd down picked up 41, and could have gone for more if Corum had not gone out of bounds. Michigan drove into Illini territory but then ran out of gas after two Corum runs were stuffed. Rather than lining Jake Moody up for a long FG into the wind, they punted. Brad Robbins delivered a dismal punt (the wind played a role) for just 19 yards. 

[Patrick Barron]

Still, Michigan was in command. Their defense muzzled Illinois quickly for another three-and-out and their third drive got out to midfield before stalling. Roman Wilson couldn't come down with a catchable ball, a pass was too high for Max Bredeson and pressure forced McCarthy out of bounds. Michigan punted again but were only able to get Illinois down to the 20 yard line. The Fighting Illini started to get going on this drive, Chase Brown finding more running room on the ground and Tommy DeVito finding his groove drove Illinois into Michigan territory but it was their turn to see a drive unravel. Isaiah Williams caught a pass just short of the sticks and Illinois decided to go for it on 4th & 1. Michigan trotted out a pair of true freshman DTs in Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and the duo stuffed Brown on the attempt, forcing a huge turnover on downs. 

Michigan was unable to capitalize on the solid field position due to an extremely questionable holding call on a great passing play from McCarthy to Roman Wilson and the ball was quickly back in the hands of Illinois, where the offense picked up where it left off. Illinois began to use tempo more heavily and the higher pace allowed them to land a few body blows on the Michigan defense. Chase Brown was running hard, Isaiah Williams flashed as an end-around specialist, and DeVito continued his strong day. Those three powered Illinois into the red zone and the team lined up to go for it on 4th & 1 from the 6. Unfortunately a false start negated the opportunity and they settled for a FG to cut the deficit to 7-3. 

The home team got the ball back with 4:03 remaining in the first half and had their best drive since the opener. Corum was churning out yards on the ground and McCarthy threw a strike to Ronnie Bell into a hole in Illinois' zone defense (one of their few zone snaps all day). It was 2nd & 10 on the Illinois 17 when Michigan gave the ball to Corum, who cut outside, around the corner, and then took a direct helmet shot to his left knee. Corum visibly reacted instantly, causing him to drop the ball just before hitting the ground. Replay officials determined that it was a fumble and Illinois had recovered, in part due to the Michigan players stopping to look after their teammate in screaming pain. Not just had Michigan lost its superstar RB for (essentially) the rest of the game, but they had turned it over inside the 15. 

Illinois got the ball back with 1:38 remaining but a holding penalty prevented any chance of a two minute drill. Set to get the ball out of halftime, Bret Bielema was content to run the clock down and head to the locker room trailing 7-3. Though the game was competitive at halftime, most Michigan fans were more concerned about the health of Corum than about losing the game. As it would turn out, their fear on the former turned out to be somewhat unfounded, while their lack of fear about the latter was glaringly absent. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More recap]

With less than two weeks to go before The Game, Michigan plays host to the Illinois Fighting Illini this Saturday at the Big House for the final tune-up contest. A tough loss by Illinois at home to Purdue has robbed them of what once seemed like a likely trip to Indianapolis, but the program is still ahead of schedule from when they hired Bret Bielema and is going to finish with their best regular season record since Ron Zook 15 years ago. Plenty of things to still be proud of, Illinois fans! 

The Film: Illinois has faced two defenses this season that are rated by SP+ to be in the same ballpark as Michigan (read: elite), Minnesota and Iowa. The game against Iowa was one in which starting QB Tommy DeVito got injured and had to be replaced by Artur Sitkowski (yes, that Artur Sitkowski) and thus is not usable for the purposes of this column, forcing me to choose Minnesota. The downside is that the Minnesota game took place over a month ago, but thankfully injuries have not hit the Illinois offense to the extent that they have the defense, so this is a doable game that we can use to extrapolate forward, even if it represents the high point of the offense on the season.

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

Illinois is starting Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at QB. One of my big keys to the season coming into the year for Illinois was getting improved QB play after 2021's problematic tandem of Sitkowski and Brandon Peters. They have gotten that from DeVito, and though their dreams of a B1G West title have come up frustratingly short, they are still going to win three more games than last season and go to a bowl game. DeVito is a big reason why, even if he has his limitations. He can move pretty well and has thrown 15 TDs to 3 INTs at 70% completion and 7.3 Y/A. He's not a great downfield passer, but given the level of QB play seen in the B1G this season, I would say that DeVito is comfortably top half of the league, if not top 5. 

The star of the offense is at the RB position, with Chase Brown, a one-time WMU transfer who faced Michigan with the Broncos way back in early 2018. He's now spent four seasons in Champaign and is a top three RB in the B1G this season, a star who has become a workhorse for the Fighting Illini. Brown has 280 carries this season(!), leading the NCAA in both rushes and rushing yards. He has more carries than the rest of the Illinois team combined and has become the lifeblood of the offense. If Brown ever comes off the field Reggie Love III, Josh McCray or Chase Hayden may fill in, but there are very few carries available for anyone not named Chase Brown. 

The WR position revolves around slot Isaiah Williams, who you may recall playing some QB against Michigan back in 2019. Attempts to make this ex-top 100 recruit into Denard Robinson 2.0 have gone out the window and he's settled in as a speedy slot who knows how to get open underneath as a safety valve for DeVito in addition to having a role as an end-around guy. Williams has 64 catches for 553 yards this season and 5 TDs, career highs in all three categories. Like Brown at RB, Williams sucks up all the attention at WR, with the next two receivers getting nearly the same number of catches combined as Williams has by himself. Those would be Brian Hightower and Pat Bryant, the primary outside options. Both offer much more size (6'3") than Williams, while Casey Washington is 6'2" and also in the mix. DeVito prefers to do his work on shorter routes than fades, which is why Williams gets more of the work. 

As you'd expect in a Bielema offense, there are several TEs worth mentioning. Tip Reiman, this week's name of the week candidate, is the starting and most used TE, with 170 more snaps than #2, Luke Ford. Ford's name may ring a bell as he was a one-time UGA player who was the center of the famous transfer waiver case in 2019 that was a key moment in the destruction of transfer rules, leading to today's free-for-all portal. Ford is somehow still in college as a 5th year senior but has never become the player that his top 100 composite profile suggested he would be. Fellow geriatric TE Michael Marchese rounds out this positional group, with Marchese leading the TEs in TDs this season. 

The OL is not yet a vintage Bielema group, still made up of a number of pieces he inherited from the previous regime. The best piece on the line is one of those inherited players, RT Alex Palczewski, who has been one of the better tackles in the league going back to his first season as a starter in 2019. I was not terribly impressed with Palczewski against Minnesota, but his PFF grades have been consistently stellar all year and I liked his tape in the past, so I felt comfortable leaving the star on him. The other pieces are mostly fine, aside from rotational RG Zy Crisler, who is a weak point. He rotates with Jordyn Slaughter, while the rest of the line is pretty firm. C Alex Pihlstrom, LG Isaiah Adams, and LT Julian Pearl are just guys, with the benefit of experience (all 5th or 6th year players) helping bolster a running game that sees Chase Brown do a lot of the lifting himself. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Diverse run concepts galore!]

Previously: Quarterback

We return for the second edition of The Enemy, Ranked. After peering at QBs on Wednesday, we turn our attention to running back. Our ranking will be based on both the presence of a #1 option, but also the depth of options (ideally a solid #2). Grading on production, experience, talent and receiving ability, I have ranked all 12 Michigan opponents on the basis of their RB room. Let's get started with a new team in the cellar. 

12. Colorado State 

Not UCONN! The Rams find themselves last on the list with a RB room that, like many on the list, sees considerable turnover. Jay Norvell brought a back with him from Nevada, Avery Morrow, but he was RB3 in Reno a year ago and has just 25 career carries to his name. The pedigree, that of a 3* Who Dat recruit, isn't the most promising either. Morrow seems to be fighting for the job with A'Jon Vivens, who stuck around in Fort Collins through the coaching change. Vivens was also the third RB for his team last year, though with a bit more experience (90 carries in 2021). His stats last season were pretty middling, 3.6 YPC and the PFF grade mirrors that. Neither guy has a any experience being a lead back, neither guy has shown much at the NCAA level, and though they both add a small receiving element, it was pretty easy to put the Rams #12 on the list. 

[UCONN Athletics]

11. Connecticut 

The Huskies escape the cellar thanks to the return of Nathan Carter, one of the few bright spots amid another disastrous 1-11 UCONN season. Carter was the top running back for Connecticut last season, with 124 carries and 19 receptions leading the backfield and he did so with a respectable 4.62 yards per carry and a less-good 6.7 yards per reception. Carter figures to get the lion's share of the carries this fall for new coach Jim Mora Jr., while the backup RB position is more unknown, with ex-JUCO/Delaware transfer Will Knight seeming to be #2 right now. I put UCONN #11 because Carter gives them a higher floor than what CSU can offer, but even though his stats were better than some backs ranked ahead of this, a strength of schedule adjustment (some of Carter's best games came against stiff competition like UMass and Vandy) docks him and lands the team 11th. 

10. Rutgers

Believe it or not, we are finally freed from the memories of Isaih Pacheco outrunning Brad Hawkins in a game that feels like it happened 40 years ago. After a loooong B1G career, the wily Rutgers back departs the program and leaves behind him a sizable hole in the backfield. Right now it's looking like an RB-by-committee situation between three unsatisfactory options. Two returners who played a sizable role in 2021 are vying for the job, Kyle Monangai and Aaron Young. Both carried the ball ~60 times last season, with nearly identical stat lines, one at 3.8 YPC and one at 3.7 YPC, one with 5 TDs and one with 4 TDs. Both also caught the ball ~11 times last year, and both went for ~7 yards per reception. Their PFF grades were very similar too, so I'm starting to think Greg Schiano might have just cloned Monangai and named the other "Aaron Young".

Neither guy projects as much of an impact player on a team that struggles to run the football behind a very poor offensive line, so if there is a hope to have a big time back, it might need to come from 3* RS FR Al-Shadee Salaam. We don't know that much about him and he wasn't a particularly prized recruit, but perhaps Salaam is ready to be the breakout player in Piscataway for 2022. But based on the information we know now, Rutgers was pretty clearly last among B1G opponents due to the lack of a returning RB1 and the poor stats and running environment surrounding the returners. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More transfers and some good backs]