MGoPodcast 9.3: The Human I Knew You’d Be Comment Count

Seth

1 hour

eupmichigan713-edit

[Eric Upchurch]

We recorded this podcast once again at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown. However this time Seth wasn’t there and so nobody noticed the recorder wasn’t plugged in. The good news is this hotel in the middle of downtown Ann Arbor is so quiet inside we could still salvage everything but Jamie’s part.

We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we’d be talking to ourselves.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: Peak Wealth Management, Homesure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,, Human Element, DEO Bookkeeping, and Lantana Hummus

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1. Florida-Tennessee

starts at 1:00

All the defenses would have been better than Cover 2. S-E-C! Jim McElwain is a sauce-selling shark sexer. Seriously: any defense.

2. The Offense

starts at 8:59

Air Force went for broke, Michigan broke them and were a bit unfortunate they didn’t have two big touchdowns early. We’re really frustrated with throwing fades out of bounds. Might have underestimated the lost of the receiver corps. Lack of very interesting things. Good at cosmetic touchdowns.

3. The Defense

starts at 30:25

James Light broke down this entire game before it happened, until Don Brown brought out the counter to the counter. Eventually AF was trying to beat Khaleke Hudson in coverage, until Hudson finally caught one. Both CBs were great in run support. McCray nice bounce-back game. Winovich is more Brandon Graham than Jake Ryan.

4. Special Teams and Feelingsball

starts at 30:20

Special Teams: Quinn Nordin is already the best kicker in Michigan history, still hasn’t gotten Ace the Wild Thing haircut. DPJ should return everything. Will Hart has to not shank punts. James Foug taunting Air Force receivers by skying them to the 1 yard line. Feelingsball: Kill Red Hat! Brian’s boycotting Dr. Pepper. Two ad breaks a quarter. Types of cars that don’t advertise on college football. Sorry to see Sumlin’s getting fired.

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MUSIC:

“Golden Girls Theme Song Remix” by Matthew A. Cherry (this guy)

“Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

Comments

mGrowOld

September 18th, 2017 at 8:48 AM ^

This makes me chuckle.  There was a thread shortly before the season starts where our Freshman WRs were discussed and the board was about 95% "it just wont matter that they're Freshman - our's are SO awesome their youth wont even be noticed."

I, being the curmudgeon who remembers what Freshman WRs play like having witnessed them for oh....I dunno....50 years or so said "wont' matter how touted they are.  They are Freshman and Freshman WRs struggle.  It'll matter because it always matters and will always matter."

It never ceases to amaze me how we talk ourselves into and out of things that objectively we KNOW are going to happen simply because A: We are MICHIGAN dammit and B: We want them to be true.  

So at the risk of pissing off people yet again let me remind everyone of the following truths:

1. Freshman WRs seldom, if ever, play like anything but Freshman.  They will struggle but will get better with time.

2. MSU will play us tougher than their record or talent level would objectively indicate.  They would rather go 1-10 with the one win over Michigan than 10-1 with the one loss being to Michigan.

3. Night games at Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin are tough to win.  We historically dont play well on the road, at night, in these venues and I dont care what their record is going in - the game will be difficult and we'll prolly lose (cause more times than we do lose night games there unfortunately)

FYI - those who forget the past are doomed to be surprised when it inevitably repeats itlself.

Farnn

September 18th, 2017 at 9:03 AM ^

Yep.  Everyone mentioned inexperience as what would hold this team back, and then when it rears it's head during the season, everyone is freaking out like the sky is falling.  The team will get better as the season goes on, Speight is the best option at QB with so much other youth starting, and I'm suddenly nervous about MSU.  They will take the same agressive defensive approach, spend all season looking for ways to confuse the OL and WRs, and it could get ugly if the offense lets them hang around all game and can't put it away. 

bronxblue

September 18th, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^

It was weird hearing the podcast start with "Speight isn't very good" and then half the examples of his bad play are in-line corrected with "Crawford should have caught that" or "that's a bad play call there" or "these receivers are young and the QB and staff are figuring out who they can trust". Michigan has an offense problem, and I think we're seeing how big a loss those received were.

lou apo

September 18th, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^

I would love to know the expected point value on a 1st and 10 at your own 15 vs 1st and 10 at your own 25.  I love these kickoffs that go into low earth orbit and then come down at the 1.

Plus, turnovers that deep are nearly 100% chance of points for the team getting the turnover.  And a 3 and out from that deep is probably about 80% chance of points for the other team when they catch the punt around mid field.  I don't think that figures into the expected point math, but shoud somehow be included.

 

 

lou apo

September 18th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^

I found this:  http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-exp…

Looks like expected points at the 25 are just shy of 1.  Expected points at the 15 are right about 0.  Inside of 15 it starts to go negative.

This doesn't take into account the drive following.  I would venture to guess that if you compared starting field position for the kicking-off team on their drive following the kick-off, that they end up in far better shape with another point or two expected there as well.

In all, I bet a 1st and 10 from the 15 is worth 2 or 3 points more than a 1st and 10 from the 25 to the team who did the kick-off.

 

EDIT:  OK, just read the entire description.  That graph is based on "next points scored" by either team, not just points scored on that offensive series.  So it already takes into account that the next drive is likely to start off better for the kicking team when they pin the receiving team deep.  So, anyway, Fogue's kicking is probably worth 1 point every time he pins them at the 15 vs kicking out the back of the end zone.

sambora114

September 18th, 2017 at 9:12 AM ^

re freshmen

Lots of youth on defense too but very few true freshmen (if any). Makes a difference but hopefully they can find a way to win and play better in Happy Valley 

Indonacious

September 18th, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^

I think there is certainly some aversion to calling pass plays over the middle in the red zone (perhaps out of concern for Speight throwing a INT). Hence, why we have so many passes going to WRs on the edges, which unfortunately more often than not seem to sail out of bounds. Maybe some of these issues will get rectified with increased confidence?

tnixon16

September 18th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^

I agree. And I further find the play design to be strange down in the red zone as well. Multiple times I've seen Speight overthrow a shallow out route into the flats, but he's high because the receiver is almost always bracketed. It's a tough angle to make that a completion. This seems to be of particular issue in the red zone, where the D can only line up so deep, and as a result, can play the routes tighter. So, get rid of those plays down there and move to something else...something more vertical and quick hitting, perhaps.

DualThreat

September 18th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^

Ok, so in regards to "skying (kickoffs) to the 1 yard line"...

Why don't we (and all teams) do this?  Seems like the predomint thought on kickoffs nowadays is just to kick them as deep into the endzone as possible to negate return.  But it seems to me that skying kickoffs to just before the endzone (with as much loft as possible to allow your coverage to get down there) is more adventagous.  The risk is of course a return back for a touchdown, but the reward is two fold:

1 - Pinning the recieving team back inside of the 25 yard line.  (Which seems to happen more times than not when the kick is high and short of the endzone.)

2 - With your coverage unit closing in, a greater chance of fumbles on the return (a la Flordia game) or plain old muffing resulting in extremely beneficial field position turnovers.

So, yeah, maybe something to analyze at some point?

reshp1

September 18th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^

I don't get the comment about Tennessee playing cover 2 in the hail mary situation. Isn't cover 2 the basis of any prevent defense? I mean, Tennessee played it horribly, but being in cover 2 didn't seem like an issue to me.

mrguy

September 18th, 2017 at 10:38 AM ^

Aww what happened to the big ten roundup with jamiemac? That is my favorite actually. Was really looking forward to hearing their comments after this weeks hijinks. Gues will have to wait until next week.

 

Also yes the soiund is way off. Sounds like it was  recorded in a bathroom with all the echo.

swdodgimus

September 18th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^

You guys claim that Air Force is the best academy team by a wide margin. Navy has actually finished some recent years in the top 25, and has a 6-4 record against AF in the last decade. It might end up being true that AF is better this year, but I thought that was a bold claim. FWIW, I torture myself by watching USNA football, if only to see them beat ND on an increasingly frequent basis. Is this claim an S&P thing? Just curious.

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 18th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^

I think it's kind of a feelingsball take partially influenced by Air Force being more clealry the best service academy team in the years previous to UM playing Air Force last time in 2012.  Since 2010, I think AF has won the Commander's in Chief trophy 4 times while Navy won 3 times.  AF won last year.  They also won 10 games twice in the past three seasons.  Navy of course won 11 in 2015, but was not as good as Air Force seeimngly last year.  Going by the advanced stats, Navy has been ahead of AF consistantly the last three years.  So I don't know if I would call them the best service academy.  However, when I watch AF and Navy, while they both run flexbone offenses, AF seems to play with more pace and different formation looks.  Could just be feelingsball on my part though.

Pmurphy1121

September 18th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^

I love it when Ace humble brags about how many people he has to mute on twitter because they want to talk to him about the football game. For his sake, everyone should stop following him on twitter and follow writters who like interacting with their readers. As mentioned Nick Baumgardner is a good follow.

Watching From Afar

September 18th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^

I don't understand the play calling. You guys said it's "conservative" but it's just... nonsensical. On the redzome trip that had the failed jet sweep, IIRC, they ran a play out of the shotgun, then the jet sweep, then shotgun again, all within the 10 yard line. Line up with Wheatley and another TE (Gentry if he's blocking that well), Hill in the back field and 1 split WR, and run stright ahead. Onwenu is having problems identifying who to block on pulls so don't pull him. Ulizio just needs to go straight ahead so have him and Onwenu doubleteam to the second level. Run a power right off Bredeson or Kugler and maul a DL that is giving up 50lbs+ per player.

Same with the 3rd an 1 or 2 near midfield when Isaac took a hand off and pitter-pattered to the line trying to find a hole. Just put a hat on a hat and bulldoze for 1 yard with Higdon (since he goes 1000 mph no matter what - even if that results in missing a hole).

It's one thing to be conservative. It's another to refuse to just use what god given talent and physical size you have to grind out a few yards. Even if AF was sending 8 guys on blitzes, there is enough athleticism and size on the OL with some TE help to push a pile 3 yards.

Yes, I know, armchair-coaching-what-do-I-know.

J.

September 18th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^

The NFL just cuts 10-15% of the game by keeping the clock running more often (clock runs on first downs; clock runs after incomplete passes except near the end of the half / game, etc.)

Ad breaks in college football might be slightly longer than the NFL, but the biggest difference is that there's more content.  Please don't "fix" this the same way the NFL did.