MGoPodcast 15.0.a: Too Many Tooks Comment Count

BlueBarron August 23rd, 2023 at 12:00 PM

2 hours and 53 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth ManagementMatt Demorest - Realtor and LenderAnn Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law GradThe Phil Klein Insurance GroupVenue by 4M where we recorded this, and The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass.

EVENT NOTE: We're hosting a tailgate with the Sklars at Venue before the UNLV game for anyone who has a ticket to see them perform live at the Ann Arbor Comedy Showcase that night. Venue will have the noon games on, and provide an a la carte tailgate spread, food truck with four beers on tap, and bar. Tickets will be on sale soon at the Comedy Showcase--stay tuned.

1. Quarterback and Running Back

Starts at 1:00

Savor your back-to-back Big Ten Championship winning Michigan Wolverines. Seth guaranteed a win against Ohio State last year and he was right. It's JJ, what level is JJ at? The TCU game obscures it but he's very good at not throwing the ball into bad places. How would you attack JJ McCarthy if you're a defense? The only thing that really de-rails this season is if he gets hurt. Is there any reason to think that JJ won't make a leap, similarly to Shea Patterson (consensus is no, he should make the leap)? Brian thinks Jack Tuttle is the likely backup and would be a viable caretaker, everyone else thinks it'll be Davis Warren. There is a very mature and very professional conversation about Alex Orji. Apparently he's the kick returner, but could he also be an actually useful asset in short yardage? Is this the best running back duo in school history? Is Blake Corum the best running back in Michigan football history? He's fast, hard to tackle, and just rarely makes mistakes. Donovan Edwards played last year with a broken hand and a knee injury (and also destroyed Ohio State in the process). His decision making improved greatly so while healthy, he should be fun to watch. CJ Stokes and Kalel Mullings are up next, CJ Stokes had some unfortunate plays but hopefully improved and gets play time. Does Tavierre Dunlap last the year? 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

 

2. Receiver and Tight Tend

Starts at 1:08:30

Wide receiver has been a "problem" position with some fans but Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson are both probably draftable. If this is the biggest problem, it is a good problem. Seemed like there were a lot of balls that Cornelius Johnson could almost catch from JJ, just need to lock down that connection more. Maybe not a 900 yard guy but still a good option. Roman Wilson will continue to play in the slot as a speedster. He'll be the most open the most often (he was more open than Cornelius on one of the touchdowns against Ohio State). You should check out Roman Wilson's YouTube channel. The other outside receiver is Tyler Morris, who seems to have a telepathic connection with JJ. He might not get a lot of targets but we're comfortable with him as a starter. Peyton O'Leary is definitely going to play and get some receptions this year. Semaj Morgan is a lot like AJ Henning as a recruit. Have Michigan fans ever been so sure about a tight end being an All-American as Colston Loveland? Did you know he was a wide receiver in Idaho two years ago? In Idaho. Does he get the most targets this season? You can line him up as a receiver if you really want to, he can be a matchup nightmare. AJ Barner had to endure Indiana's offense last year, but he should be serviceable at Michigan. Matthew Hibner has shown flashes in the past, but after that the depth gets a little light. There are photos of Marlin Klein playing with the 1s. Max Bredeson is technically a fullback but is also basically a tight end. 

3. Hot Takes and Offensive Line

Starts at 1:56:18

Takes hotter than Mel Tucker's seat after he loses to DeVry University. This is the deepest offensive line any of us can remember - we would be comfortable with some of the 3rd stringers. Zak Zinter is the top guard on some draft lists and is probably at his ceiling, Trevor Keegan should be recovered from an injury and have some room for improvement this year. Center is a battle between Drake Nugent and Greg Crippen. NFL folks love LaDarius Henderson for his athletic traits. Giovanni El-Hadi looked good last year up until the Illinois game and will probably be a starter next year. Coaches are going to rotate starters in the non-conference. Karsen Barnhart has been getting a lot of camp buzz - plays really well against bad opponents but really struggles against anyone better than him. We would expect Trente Jones to win the right tackle job, but we're hearing other things from camp. Nice to see Myles Hinton since he was heavily coveted as a recruit. He struggled at Stanford, but that may have been a product of Stanford's offense. Hinton moves really smoothly for how big he is. LaDarius Hunderson is probably the starting left tackle. 

4. Offense in Summary

Starts at 2:38:51

This offense looks to be the best of the Harbaugh era. What offense in Michigan football history would you take over this one? JJ is just Zen Harbaugh. What is the biggest concern of the offense (other than someone getting hurt)? Who is your breakout player? Who's your Dude? Final SP+ rank?

MUSIC:

  • “Don't Fade Out”— Cut Worms
  • “Gilded Lily”— Cults
  • “Handsome”— Drug Cabin
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

Cooks and Tooks

Comments

greymarch

August 23rd, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^

I've been watching Michigan football since 1981.  The only offense I would take over this one was Tom Brady's final season with Michigan.  That offense was stacked with future NFL players.

 

UofM Die Hard …

August 23rd, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^

That's a grown ass man move right there boy

Im all tourqued up and ready for this season.  Im going to enjoy the hell out of this season, and soak it all up...as I think we all are. 

Who know was 2024 and beyond looks like, probably super freaking messy, so lets all enjoy the shit out of this year...because its going to be a special one. 

michengin87

August 24th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^

Zak and Olu making 5 star 287 lbs Taron Vincent look like a rag doll.  He went undrafted and I'm sure that play didn't help him.  Then, Zak easily handles Steele Chambers.

This was also with Karsen playing RT and making sure that another 5 star Zach Harrison finishes his career attempting to chase down another UM touchdown.

 

bdubya

August 23rd, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^

Has anyone ever given Seth a shout out for his work on the classic Phil Klein insurance commercial?  The old "conversation that is actually an ad" thing is usually super bad, but Seth actually manages to nail a realistic conversational tone and message. Great stuff.

MaynardST

August 23rd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^

I despise recency bias.  You can't even think about Corum as the best running back in Michigan football history unless you actually saw Willie Heston (Knute Rockne thought he was the best ever), Tom Harmon, some Mad Magicians, Ron Johnson and many others.  Nobody alive is old enough.

mwolverine1

August 23rd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^

I looked at Michigan offenses in the modern era (1969-present) per SP+.

The top 5 are all Bo offenses:

  1. 1978 (99 percentile, 5th rank)
  2. 1976 (97.6 percentile, 6th rank)
  3. 1981 (97.2 percentile, 7th rank)
  4. 1983 (97 percentile, 4th rank)
  5. 1974 (96.8 percentile, 6th rank)

Post-Bo, the top 5 looks like this:

  1. 2022 (95.7 percentile, 7th rank)
  2. 1992 (95.3 percentile, 5th rank)
  3. 1994 (94.5 percentile, 4th rank)
  4. 1991 (93 percentile, 11th rank)
  5. 1999 (92.3 percentile, 8th rank)

The next three after Moeller are 2018, 2000, and 2004. 

GoBlueZ06

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:26 PM ^

Wheatley, Biakabutuka, Anthony Thomas, Hart, Senior Perry all deserve mentions. Jamie Morris probably up there too though admittedly I was VERY young when he was playing.

I truly believe Corum would've won the Heisman last year were it not for the injury, so he also absolutely belongs in the conversation.

I think people undervalue the ability to always make yardage and overvalue home runs when looking at backs, but most importantly many overlook taking care of the football. That's where Hart was so above and beyond, until the bowl game his senior year he had fumbled exactly one time in his career. Just a truly phenomenal player.

Koop

August 24th, 2023 at 7:57 AM ^

The dude that always gets left off these lists is Tony Boles, probably because he had one injury-shortened season and his life got seriously derailed after. But IIRC, before he got hurt against Minnesota in November 1989, Boles was averaging over 200 yards per game in Big Ten play and was in the Heisman discussion. 
 

Wheatley-Biakabatuka was just unfair. Buuuuuuttt—I think I’d still take Corum-Edwards-Mooseback #3 (probably Hall).

Other Andrew

August 23rd, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^

A lot of discussion on the Orjicat that may or may not get used. Makes me wonder if Harbaugh’s kick returner announcement was an intent to deceive? To keep the goalline package under wraps a bit longer?

potomacduc

August 23rd, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^

I'm a big fan of the current RB room, but the 1994 roster had 5 RBs that played in the NFL. Wheatley/Biakabutuka/Davis was certainly one of the best 3-deeps in my lifetime. The rest of the bench included Chris Howard, Chris Floyd, Che Foster and Jon Ritchie. 

 

Willstud99

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:58 PM ^

These pods are genuinely my favorite part of the offseason cycle, partially because they signify the end of the offseason but also because it sounds like seeing old friends for the first time in a long while. Always puts a smile in my face to hear the gang back in the saddle screaming about OL play. Go Blue!!

Koop

August 24th, 2023 at 8:34 AM ^

My hot take:

"EITHER CORNELIUS JOHNSON OR TYLER MORRIS WILL GO FOR OVER 900 YARDS THIS SEASON!!!"

Not that I think CJ or Morris will break out as the go-to weapon in this offense. But I reflect on seasons when receivers like Marquise Walker or Mercury Hayes -- legitimate studs, to be sure -- benefited enormously when opposing defenses had to account for another, even more dangerous threat elsewhere on the field (for Walker, David Terrell; for Hayes, Amani Toomer).

This season, defenses have to be really worried, first, about explosive plays in the Michigan run game; then, explosive plays from the slot-wheel-split back; and only after all that can they spend time worrying about wideouts. And, teams have to know Jim Harbaugh's inclination just to ground-and-pound opponents into the dirt if he can--and this team can.

So, yes, I agree with the take that Colston Loveland will probably be at or among the most targets for the season. And I hope that Donovan Edwards gets a bunch of receiving yards. But one, two, or all three receivers are going to be streaking open on a bunch of plays this year--and I think the WR corps is going to benefit from all those other weapons being on the field.

kyle.aaronson

August 24th, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^

This would be great, but I honestly think Roman Wilson is the most likely receiver to break 900 yards simply because of his big-play ability. It's not wildly unreasonable to expect him to have a handful of touchdowns that add up to 300 or 400 yards on their own, so can he make up the difference with a bunch of 10-15 yard gains when defenses play waayyyyy off him?

mwolverine1

August 24th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^

The play action vs dropback passing split may be the biggest room for improvement. JJ McCarthy was decent on dropback passes and elite at play action.

https://twitter.com/SportSourceA/status/1685279536328351744?s=20

Unfortunately, Michigan did not utilize play action nearly enough - only 48th in play action frequency among P5s.

https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1677069630509318145?s=20

Also, I'd like to highlight the third chart from the first tweet above. It shows JJ was absolutely insane throwing deep middle, but struggled throwing deep and to the sidelines. However he excels throwing mid-distance to the sidelines (like those deep outs) but can work on throwing mid-distance over the middle.

Koop

August 24th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^

Good stuff.

It shows JJ was absolutely insane throwing deep middle, but struggled throwing deep and to the sidelines. However he excels throwing mid-distance to the sidelines (like those deep outs) but can work on throwing mid-distance over the middle.

I'd be curious to see a deeper analysis of who the receivers were on those JJ misses by area of the field. Unscientifically, throwing "deep and to the sidelines" sounds to me like targeting WRs, whereas "deep middle" could include, for example, targeting TEs. Similarly, "throwing mid-distance to the sidelines" sounds like an easier WR target like an out or comeback, whereas "mid-distance over the middle" could include passes like crossing routes and contested throws that Michigan's WRs didn't handle as well last season.

alum96

August 24th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^

Is Blake Corum the best running back in Michigan football history? He's fast, hard to tackle, and just rarely makes mistakes. 

Blake is fantastic. His career average is 6.0 ypc!

Wheatley is at 5.8 and Tim B is also at 6.0.  Wheatley the better pass catcher v Tim tho.  Much like "The Don" and Blake they "had" to share a backfield together; independently and with a lesser teammate I think they would be in Hart territory for total yards. 

Those are my top 3 from visual watching.  Hart also in that grouping but 5.0 ypc but a workhorse - if had the speed of Wheatley think he'd be #1 no question. Blake same situation. 

Rob Lytle was at 6.1 but before my time. 

Fun fact Denard despite sacks being counted against his rushing total is the #2 rusher in UM history and has a 6.2 ypc!

p.s. Feel like Jon Vaughn didn't get utilized enough, he at 6.1 ypc - one magical season.

Derek

August 24th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^

In my world, he's an NPC

That's brutal.

Definitely +1 to the fact that Roman Wilson is underrated. My hot take is that inheriting Ronnie Bell's targets will make him look like a Tyreek Hill impersonator.

AlbanyBlue

August 28th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^

This pod just reinforced my thinking that this will be the best offense since '06. Pretty much the only thing on the questionable side was mentioned by Brian -- will we use our offense to the fullest? I think this year will look very much like last year. Thankfully that's very, very good and gives us a great chance for the conference three-peat.

As far as the playoff, hey coaches, show me you've improved. Then the ceiling is 15-0 and a National Championship.