[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

McNeese St. 87, Michigan 76 Comment Count

Alex.Drain December 30th, 2023 at 12:20 AM

A year ago Michigan Men's Basketball brought a mid-major Central Michigan team to Ann Arbor a few days after Christmas and played a low-effort, embarrassing game. The Wolverines looked uninterested and were dominated by a smaller CMU team on the offensive glass en route to a 63-61 defeat at the hands of the Chips, who'd finish the year 10-21. Tonight Michigan lost a similar buy-game to a mid-major a few days after Christmas, dominated in the paint again but this year it felt less surprising or outrageous. McNeese State led almost the entire contest and looked like frankly the better basketball team, winning by double digits at Crisler Center. Michigan is now 6-7 on the year and the lack of surprise may be because at this point, this feels like who Michigan is. 

McNeese State opened the game strong, grabbing a quick lead by feasting on Michigan turnovers. The Wolverines turned it over nine times in the game's first 11.5 minutes and McNeese was able to outpace Michigan over that period despite the Wolverines' hot shooting from beyond the arc. Michigan came out gunning from three and would end up shooting 10/19 for the half, even better in the game's opening minutes. Terrance Williams II and Dug McDaniel combined to shoot 7/10 from distance, working around two quick fouls for Olivier Nkamhoua (the Finn played only 8 minutes in the first half). 

The duality of Michigan's turnovers and three point shooting meant that the game was pretty tight through the first 10 minutes or so, but McNeese established a lead by tightening up their defense (6 minute field goal drought for Michigan) and getting consistent penetration offensively. The middle stretch of the first half was something like a layup line for the Cowboys, getting repeated blow-bys at the point of attack, breaking down the interior defense and generating easy buckets. McNeese led 35-23 with 5:47 to go, but Michigan closed the half with a strong rally.

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Said rally was driven by three-point shooting perking back up for the Wolverines, with Will Tschetter and McDaniel threes book-ending a missed one-and-one by McNeese St. to cut the lead down to 35-31. McNeese's Antavion Collum would add a free throw to stretch the lead back to five but Michigan hit two more threes, one from McDaniel and one from Williams, to take a 37-36 lead. The Cowboys added two buckets in the final minute to lead 40-37 at the half, but Michigan felt fortunate just to be down three given how they had played. 

The first half trends reversed in the second half, but not necessarily for the better. On one hand, Michigan kept somewhat better control of the ball and cut down on the turnovers that had haunted them in the first half. On the other hand, the three-point shooting that had kept Michigan's offense afloat in the first half vanished as Michigan clunked their way to a 3/16 performance beyond the long line after the break. When you consider that three pointers made up 50% of their attempts in that half, you can see how the offense might have struggled. 

McNeese State continued to live mostly inside the arc, but upped its three point percentage to 50% (on low volume), which included several timely makes. One such shot was a three by Shahada Wells with 13:19 to go in the game to stretch the lead back up to double digits, 56-46. Nkamhoua answered with a three of his own but McNeese State came right back with a transition dunk, pushing the lead to nine at the under 12 media timeout. From this point forward the lead oscillated between 6 and 15 in favor of the Cowboys, never getting out of reach for Michigan but they never had the consistency or energy to string a run together that could change the feel of the game. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

One example was a three pointer from Williams with 8:06 to go, cutting the lead to 64-58. Michigan forced a miss on the ensuing McNeese St. possession but gave up an offensive rebound and second-chance layup by CJ Felder. A stop there could've allowed Michigan to pull within striking distance on the next possession, but instead they were back down eight. Williams missed a three on the next trip down the floor, Wells grabbed the rebound and was fouled by Tray Jackson while shooting on the fast-break the other way. He made both free throws out of the under eight timeout and the lead was back up to double figures. 

There were several moments like that in the second half, but that was just a taste. Every tiny bit of Michigan momentum was quickly quashed by their inability to consistently make shots with the threes not falling, plus getting manhandled inside. Their defense wasn't tight enough to make up for the ups-and-downs offensively and it was McNeese St. who came up with the high leverage buckets.

Nkamhoua dunked the ball to push the lead back down to 70-63, but DJ Richards answered with a corner three. Youssef Khayat trimmed the lead back to eight (73-65), but the Cowboys earned an easy dunk against passive Michigan defense. Williams' three attempt on the other end came up short and once Javohn Garcia drilled a triple with 2:37 to go, making it 78-65 for the visitors, the outcome was no longer in doubt. The final few minutes bled away but the margin didn't change and Michigan never got close again. Final score: 87-76 McNeese State. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

There isn't much to say about Michigan in this game other than that McNeese State was the better basketball team. They shot it better from the field and from three, dominated in the paint (42-14!!!!), won the turnover battle 15-4, and nearly led wire to wire. After falling down early, Michigan only again led for one brief moment at the end of the first half. Shahada Wells was the leading scorer with 30 points, eclipsing Williams' 20, and Michigan struggled to get contributions outside their big three of Williams, McDaniel, and Nkamhoua. Tarris Reed Jr. scored zero points in 22 minutes, attempting just one FG. 

Very little good happened for the Maize & Blue today and at 6-7, it feels like time is already running out on the season. This game was officially the final non-conference contest, a stretch that saw Michigan add almost nothing to the resume and lose two buy-games at home, one to Long Beach State and one to McNeese State tonight. The Big Ten isn't at its strongest this season, so it will be a significant uphill battle to cobble together the sort of credentials needed to make the NCAA Tournament. They are not playing like a good basketball team, or one that deserves to make the NCAA Tournament and unlike this time last year, it's not outrageous or surprising. Rather, it's numbingly normal. Something is going to have to change for Michigan Men's Basketball in 2024 or else some hard questions will have to seriously be considered by those in the athletic department about the future of the program. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

bronxblue

December 30th, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^

I still don't understand how this team is so bad defensively.  The turnovers I get to an extent; Dug is physically limited against bigger defenders and guys like Reed just can't hold onto the ball.  But Michigan's defense is somehow profoundly worse than last year's unit despite that one having Jett Howard, maybe the least-interested defender I've seen in a Michigan uniform in recent memory, and a true freshman PG in Dug and a limited center in Dickinson.  And the guys they brought in are all better defensively, on paper, than those guys.

Per KenPom this is the #25 offense in the country and the nation's 141st defense.  If this defense was "only" #100 they'd be Minnesota, which is currently 10-3 with the #75 offense because they at least sometimes get some stops.  

If Howard is retained then he has to be forced to completely turn over his defensive staff and outlook and hire someone who can teach good defense.  There is decent player development year-to-year; Dug is a better player than last year by a significant step, both TWill and Tschetter are noticeably better as well.  But they're just such a mess defensively it doesn't matter and they gotta figure that out.  Or part ways with Howard and try to find someone else.  

swc_92

December 30th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^

Unlike offense, where natural talent can prevail over scheme (NBA case in point), defense is more about effort given and communication. If a team decides to prioritize playing good defense and emphasizes that in practice and within their culture, they will probably become better at defense. This is basically what happened when our own Wolverines went from an atrocious defensive team to one of the best as we embraced the Billy Donlon and Luke Yaklich philosophies. Many of the same players that were on our terrible 2015 & 2016 defensive teams were on the elite 2017 and 2018 teams. The fact that we have played absolutely atrocious defense the past 3 years now tells me that this coaching staff does not prioritize defense, or doesn't know how to coach defense, either way that is not acceptable. 

kzoomgr

December 30th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^

A 10-22 record by season end, including a loss in the 1st round of the B1G tourney, is a better than average probability.  Given the poor recruiting success and off floor issues, I can't see anything other than a full scale coaching transition. Disappointing bc I thought Howard had all the ingredients to do well, but it hasn't worked out. 

TBlue

December 30th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^

There are too many patterns with this program that can provide any rational person with hope for improvement.  Constantly out hustled, out rebounded, and lacking the kind of effort you would expect from a premier program.  Add to that losing virtually every close game.  
Juwan’s success as a player has not translated into coaching success - which seems to be common with many star players from the last few decades (Ewing, Manning, Mullin - to name a few).  
It seems clear to most that the Juwan experiment is over.  Now it’s just a matter of how long will that reality will be clear to Warde.  I’m not optimistic for that to happen as soon as it should.   

burtcomma

December 30th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^

Coach Howard is not getting fired this year.  Those calling for his head are wasting their time until at least the end of next season.  The ready made reason (whether you want to accept it or not or call it unacceptable or whatever) is his missing significant time with this team due to his heart surgery.  Based on our athletic department’s history on how we handle coaches, he’s going to get at least one more year at a minimum.🤷‍♂️

 

jmblue

December 30th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^

Manuel's history does suggest he gives coaches a long leash, and he did hire Juwan, so he may feel personally invested in his success.  OTOH, there really isn't any precedent for a situation like this, where there have been both performance and conduct issues on the part of the coach. 

If the team does not turn it around (and some of the rumors swirling are ominous) and Crisler is half-empty all season, all bets are off.