Jimmystats: Comps for 2017 Offensive Recruits
Squint really hard—is there a Lewanlong in there?
When updating the roster I also of course grabbed the current rankings and star ratings from each site for the committed players. I was having some fun seeing where they fit among past Michigan recruits, and figured I might as well share.
Explanation of numbers: My “☆s” ratings are a composite score on a sliding 5-star scale that averages the available recruiting site data. So for example 247sports had Shane Morris a 95, and the 81st overall recruit. On my scale that would be a 4.4-star, the equivalent of a 5.9 in the top 100 to Rivals, a 4-star in the top 100 on Scout, and an 84 on ESPN. Weights in the second column are as a recruit. Also the old ESPN grades are scaled to match (as best as possible) their modern ratings system. Pre-2002 ratings are not to be trusted because those data I have are mostly just stars, with the occasional top-100 or something, and pre-1996 is the recruiting dark ages.
Please get the point: This is not a “You might remember me from such players as,” which is based on scouting—you’ll have to wait for the 2017 recruiting posts this spring and summer before we can make those kinds of claims. The tape and offers can sometimes tell a very different story than the scouting services, to say nothing of fit and who’s doing the offering.
The point here is to orient you as to how highly rated these guys are, because “he’s a 4-star” can mean a ton of things but “he’s right around where Kekoa Crawford ended up” is a mark.
Quarterback
Dylan McCaffrey (M rank as recruit since 1995: 9/25)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
4 | Jason Kapsner | ’96 | 6'6 /220 | - | SUPERPREP: #7 QB, AA | LEMMING: #1 PRO | - | 4.60 |
5 | Shane Morris | ’13 | 6'3/183 | 6.0 (#4 DUAL) #81 OVR | 5* (#3 QB) #40 OVR | 84 (#8 QB) #127 OVR | 95 (#4 PRO) #81 OVR | 4.50 |
6 | Brandon Peters | ’16 | 6'5/216 | 5.9 (#6 PRO) #158 OVR | 4* (#4 QB) #77 OVR | 85 (#3 PP) #60 OVR | 96 (#4 PRO) #34 OVR | 4.45 |
7 | Tom Brady | ’95 | 6'5/215 | - | - | LEMMING: #6 PRO | - | 4.40 |
8 | Devin Gardner | ’10 | 6'4/195 | 5.9 (#1 DUAL) #132 OVR | 5* (#5 QB) #43 OVR | 84 (#5 DT) #128 OVR | 96 (#1 DUAL) #44 OVR | 4.40 |
9 | Dylan McCaffrey | ’17 | 6'5/196 | 6.0 (#4 DUAL) #52 OVR | 4* (#8 QB) #109 OVR | 84 (#2 PP) #60 OVR | 95 (#4 PRO) #58 OVR | 4.40 |
10 | Clayton Richard | ’03 | 6'4/225 | 4* (#4 PRO) #71 OVR | 4* (#13 QB) not ranked | #22 OVR | SUPERPREP #20 OVR | 4.40 |
11 | Matt Gutierrez | ’02 | 6'4/206 | 4* (#5 PRO) #96 OVR | 4* (#12 QB) not ranked | #26 OVR | - | 4.27 |
12 | Tate Forcier | ’09 | 6'1/184 | 5.9 (#5 DUAL) #164 OVR | 4* (#15 QB) #137 OVR | 84 (#14 QB) #144 OVR | - | 4.20 |
13 | Denard Robinson | ’09 | 6'0/179 | 5.8 (#14 ATH) #188 OVR | 4* (#16 CB) #159 OVR | 84 (#7 ATH) #101 OVR | - | 4.07 |
15 | Alex Malzone | ’15 | 6'2/205 | 5.8 (#11 PRO) not ranked | 4* (#14 QB) #185 OVR | 80 (#16 PP) not ranked | 88 (#15 PRO) not ranked | 3.80 |
Go look at the QB class of 2004 if you doubt a #13 was pretty good.
Between Devin Gardner and Clayton Richard/Tate Forcier, but I see a closer comp to Shane Morris except taller and more Harbaugh. Like Morris, McCaffrey created disagreement as to whether he’s a pro-style or dual-threat, and he was a consensus five-star before slipping down to wind up a high-ish 4-star. If he slipped a bit further, it’s probably not as much as Shane would have fallen in today’s more dynamic rankings world. McCaffrey may also get moved up a bit as ESPN finalizes their ratings—Brandon Peters was ranked the same nationally—60th overall—but got a score of 85.
That McCaffrey was recruited by Harbaugh, not Borges, is important. When I went through all the quarterbacks Harbaugh recruited to Stanford the vast majority of his targets wound up good quarterbacks. In 2008 he got Luck and almost got RGIII but for Stanford’s admissions policy. The following year three out of his five offers (Matt Barkley, Taysom Hill, and Brock Osweiler) ended up Heisman candidates, and the other two (Josh Nunes at Stanford and Allan Bridgford at Cal) were starters. As for Borges, his one scouting success story so far is Wilton Speight…after two years of being coached by Harbaugh.
[Hit THE JUMP for more.]
Running Back
The silver lining of Bama flipping Bama commit Najee Harris to Bama at the last minute is it saved us from reliving other 5-star backs at Michigan. A.J. Dillon, if you’re wondering, was a 3.85* on my composite, mostly thanks to a top 100 ranking from 247sports.
O’Maury Samuels (M rank as recruit: 21/41 since ’95)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
17 | De'Veon Smith | ’13 | 5'11/218 | 5.7 (#37 RB) not ranked | 4* (#11 RB) #62 OVR | 81 (#27 RB) not ranked | 91 (#15 RB) #217 OVR | 3.95 |
18 | Michael Shaw | ’08 | 6'1/185 | 5.9 (#7 RB) #102 OVR | 4* (#29 RB) #219 OVR | 78 (#59 RB) not ranked | - | 3.93 |
19 | Sam McGuffie | ’08 | 5'11/188 | 5.8 (#10 RB) not ranked | 4* (#7 RB) #63 OVR | 79 (#30 RB) not ranked | - | 3.93 |
20 | Brandon Minor | ’06 | 6'1/213 | 5.8 (#1 FB) Top 250 | 4* (#29 RB) not ranked | 78 (#34 RB) not ranked | - | 3.80 |
21 | O'Maury Samuels | ’17 | 5'11/190 | 5.8 (#22 RB) not ranked | 3* (#22 RB) not ranked | 81 (#23 RB) #240 OVR | 89 (#23 RB) #356 OVR | 3.75 |
22 | Fitzgerald Toussaint | ’09 | 5'10/185 | 5.8 (#8 RB) #239 OVR | 3* (#49 RB) not ranked | 79 (#28 RB) not ranked | - | 3.73 |
23 | Ross Taylor-Douglas | ’13 | 5'10/180 | 5.8 (#22 DB) not ranked | 3* (#42 CB) not ranked | 80 (#32 CB) not ranked | 90 (#23 CB) not ranked | 3.70 |
24 | Mike Hart | ’04 | 5'9/175 | 5.7 (#6 APB) not ranked | 3* (#18 RB) not ranked | NR | SUPERPREP #12 RB | 3.67 |
25 | Chris Evans | ’16 | 5'11/200 | 5.7(#32 ATH) not ranked | 4* (#12 RB) #190 OVR | 76 (#69 RB) not ranked | 90 (#5 APB) #298 OVR | 3.65 |
26 | Jerome Jackson | ’03 | 5'11/195 | 4* (#15 RB) not ranked | 4* (#20 RB) not ranked | NR | SUPERPREP not ranked | 3.60 |
FYI for the old-timers, Teric Jones, Mike Cox, C-Will and J.R. Ford were also 3.60s. Also In case you didn’t notice those freshman weights are probably a bit off (Evans was not 200 this year).
O’Maury Samuels’s 5’11/190 is about average for a freshman back; he probably comes in Jerome Jackson-sized, or a bigger Karan Higdon. His Scout and 247 rankings (the two that probably matter most) bring Samuels down to closer to Brandon Minor or Fitz Toussaint in expectation level. I’d say take De’Veon Smith and Mike Cox, and split the difference.
Kurt Taylor (M rank as recruit: 32/41 since ’95)
But Mike Hart…
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
29 | Karan Higdon | ’15 | 5'10/190 | 5.7 (#45 RB) not ranked | 3* (#84 RB) not ranked | 78 (#70 RB) not ranked | 90 (#29 RB) not ranked | 3.50 |
30 | Mister Simpson | ’05 | 6'0/195 | 5.7 (#20 RB) not ranked | 3* (#53 RB) not ranked | NR | - | 3.50 |
31 | Avery Horn | ’07 | 5'10/195 | 5.6 (#13 APB) not ranked | 3* (#77 RB) not ranked | 78 (#33 RB) not ranked | - | 3.40 |
32 | Kurt Taylor | ’17 | 5'9/200 | 5.5 (NR RB) not ranked | 3* (#56 RB) not ranked | 77 (#56 RB) not ranked | 85 (#54 RB) #843 OVR | 3.35 |
33 | Thomas Rawls | ’11 | 5'10/214 | 5.6 (NR) not ranked | 3* (#77 RB) not ranked | 75 (#84 RB) not ranked | 84 (NR RB) not ranked | 3.25 |
34 | Austin White | ’10 | 6'0/186 | 5.7 (#10 APB) not ranked | 4* (#15 RB) #155 OVR | 77 (#77 RB) not ranked | 70 (NR APB) not ranked | 3.25 |
35 | Vincent Smith | ’09 | 5'6/159 | 5.7 (#36 RB) not ranked | 3*(#102 RB) not ranked | 77 (#60 RB) not ranked | - | 3.25 |
36 | Pierre Rembert | ’02 | 6'0/197 | 4* (#17 RB) not ranked | 2*(#114 RB) not ranked | NR | - | 3.25 |
37 | Kingston Davis | ’16 | 6'1/245 | 5.7 (#2 FB) not ranked | 3* (#95 RB) not ranked | 75 (#77 RB) not ranked | 85 (#2 FB) #891 OVR | 3.24 |
38 | Drake Johnson | ’12 | 6'1/200 | 5.6 (NR RB) not ranked | 3* (#77 RB) not ranked | 68(#160 RB) not ranked | 85 (#48 RB) not ranked | 3.19 |
…is not on this list, since he was actually one of those high 3-stars—more Chris Evans than Timothy Bracken. Kurt Taylor’s recruiting composite is one step below the guy whose names you remember to stump your friends with obscure mid-aughts Carr recruits, and one spot above last week’s NFL Wild Card MVP. Vincent Smith and Drake Johnson are around there too. If Kurt Taylor remains in this class—and indications are he will do so over all your dead bodies—there’s plenty of precedent for him to become a valuable addition.
Fullback
I don’t trust most of what it says below since these fullbacks were rarely recruited to play such, or ranked for it. And most of the period when recruiting services would care about fullbacks occurred before recruiting services cared about putting their data online and in order. So this is meaningless but…
Ben Mason (M rank as recruit: 9/18 since ’95)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
2 | Henry Poggi | ’13 | 6'4/260 | 6.0 (#5 DT) #70 OVR | 4* (#15 DT) #143 OVR | 82 (#22 DT) #255 OVR | 94 (#11 DT) #120 OVR | 4.25 |
3 | John Anes | ’96 | 6'2 /240 | - | - | - | - | 4.20 |
4 | Demetrius Smith | ’97 | 6'2 /265 | - | - | - | - | 4.00 |
5 | Wyatt Shallman | ’13 | 6'3/245 | 5.8 (#18 ATH) not ranked | 4* (#2 FB) #293 OVR | 79 (#1 FB) not ranked | 90 (#1 FB) not ranked | 3.80 |
6 | Roger Allison | ’04 | 6'1/230 | 5.6 (#9 APB) not ranked | 4* (#17 LB) not ranked | LEMMING: #24 FB | - | 3.60 |
7 | Sean Sanderson | ’01 | 6'3 /270 | - | - | - | - | 3.50 |
8 | Khalid Hill | ’13 | 6'2/230 | 5.6 (#32 TE) not ranked | 3* (#18 TE) not ranked | 79 (#8 TE-H) not ranked | 86 (#31 TE) not ranked | 3.50 |
9 | Ben Mason | ’17 | 6'2.5/247 | 5.6 (#NR ILB) not ranked | 3* (#64 DE) not ranked | 80 (#30 OLB) not ranked | 85 (#34 ILB) #891 OVR | 3.45 |
10 | Quintin Patilla | ’06 | 6'1/193 | 5.7 (#26 LB) not ranked | 3* (#58 LB) not ranked | 77 (#18 OLB) not ranked | - | 3.40 |
11 | Stephen Hopkins | ’10 | 6'0/235 | 5.5 (NR) not ranked | 3* (#52 RB) not ranked | 77 (#50 RB) not ranked | - | 3.33 |
12 | Sione Houma | ’12 | 6'0/211 | 5.5 (#5 RB) not ranked | 3* (#5 FB) not ranked | 72 (#4 FB) not ranked | 83 (#6 FB) not ranked | 3.10 |
He’s the same size a half inch short of Wyatt Shallman, but ranked as a linebacker, so Ben winds up looking like Quintin Patilla, who wound up playing a tiny tiny bit when Michigan ran out of bodies in the Rodriguez era. If I had more data Ray Jackson, Dave Armstrong and B.J. Askew might be somewhere in there.
Comp: fullbacks.
Wide Receivers
Donovan Peoples-Jones (M rank as recruit: 3/55 since ’95)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
1 | David Terrell | ’98 | 6'3 /200 | - | - | LEMMING: #1WR,#4 OVR | PARADE AA | 5.00 |
2 | Marquise Walker | ’98 | 6'3 /195 | - | - | LEMMING: #2WR,#16 OVR | PARADE AA | 4.80 |
3 | DPJ | ’17 | 6'2/193 | 6.1 (#2 WR) #13 OVR | 5* (#4 WR) #32 OVR | 87 (#4 WR) #27 OVR | 98 (#1 WR) #8 OVR | 4.75 |
4 | Tai Streets | ’95 | 6'4 /185 | - | - | LEMMING: #4 WR | - | 4.60 |
5 | Mario Manningham | ’05 | 6'0/174 | 6.0 (#5 WR) #45 OVR | 4* (#7 WR) #64 OVR | - | - | 4.50 |
6 | Darryl Stonum | ’08 | 6'2/180 | 6.0 (#7 WR) #41 OVR | 4* (#12 WR) #73 OVR | 85 (#14 WR) #71 OVR | - | 4.47 |
7 | Antonio Bass | ’05 | 6'0/194 | 6.0 (#5 ATH) #49 OVR | 4* (#9 WR) #69 OVR | #67 OVR | - | 4.47 |
(the blue highlight is Nico Collins, discussed below)
They said he’s Michigan’s top recruit of the database era, but my own class had that pair of all-timers to compare him to. On sources: Tom Lemming would have his Top 100 list and Top ~25 at each position, which are still the easiest to translate if not purely the most accurate reflection of contemporary thought. Making the Parade Team from 1963 to 1999 was about the equivalent of a Top 25 ranking and a #1 or 2 at your position. Woodson, Backus, Mo Williams, Fargas, Terrell, Walker, Henson (as punter lol!), and Tony Pape are the guys to make those teams in late ’90s. Superprep and, for Midwest recruiting, The Insiders were the forebears of Scout.com, publishing regional and national recruiting rankings. I’ve shared those I can find but these lists weren’t printed on the internet so they’re challenging to find. Lastly Michigan’s first crootin blogger, Sandeep Vijan, is helpful in putting together the stories from this era.
Between the two fellow five-star receivers Walker is the nearer target. Walker had that combination of ridiculous ups and downfield quickness to always be open, while Terrell was more of a smaller Megatron. Streets is hanging around nearby, or you could say “Manningham except big.” Anyway he’s a big enough deal that I should probably do one of those looks at all national recruits like I did for some previous consensus 5-stars.
We’ll keep going down the line.
Tarik Black (M rank as recruit: 13/55 since ’95)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
8 | DiAllo Johnson | ’95 | 6'3 /190 | - | - | LEMMING: #5 ATH | - | 4.40 |
9 | Drake Harris | ’14 | 6'4/180 | 5.9(#15 WR) #115 OVR | 4* (#8 WR) #52 OVR | 84 (#10 WR) #85 OVR | 96 (#12 WR) #88 OVR | 4.40 |
10 | Adrian Arrington | ’04 | 6'3/180 | 5.8 (#17 WR) not ranked | 4* (#11 WR) #66 OVR | #43 OVR | - | 4.33 |
11 | Jason Avant | ’02 | 6'1/195 | 4* (#13 WR) not ranked | 4* (#10 WR) #76 OVR | #49 OVR | - | 4.33 |
12 | Je'Ron Stokes | ’09 | 6'0/178 | 5.9 (#14 WR) #104 OVR | 4* (#17 WR) #169 OVR | 85 (#8 WR) #67 OVR | - | 4.20 |
13 | Tarik Black | ’17 | 6'4/208 | 5.9(#10 WR) #76 OVR | 4* (#13 WR) #99 OVR | 81 (#31 WR) #223 OVR | 92 (#30 WR) #198 OVR | 4.20 |
14 | Kekoa Crawford | ’16 | 6'1/195 | 5.9(#26 WR) #129 OVR | 4* (#24 WR) #134 OVR | 82 (#22 WR) #179 OVR | 94 (#21 WR) #131 OVR | 4.15 |
15 | Toney Clemons | ’07 | 6'3/205 | 5.9 (#12 WR) #91 OVR | 4* (#10 WR) #68 OVR | 78 (#43 WR) not ranked | - | 4.13 |
16 | Ahmir Mitchell | ’16 | 6'3/205 | 5.9 (#30 WR) #139 OVR | 4* (#23 WR) #131 OVR | 82 (#33 WR) #216 OVR | 93 (#11 ATH) #169 OVR | 4.10 |
17 | Junior Hemingway | ‘07 | 6’1/205 | 5.7 (#30 WR) #139 OVR | 4* (#26 WR) not ranked | 88 (#4 WR) #19 OVR | - | 4.07 |
There’s a split of opinion on Black: Rivals and Scout think he’s in the Avant-Arrington range, and ESPN and 247 put him closer to where they had Ahmir Mitchell (whose talent was never in question).
Nico Collins (M rank as recruit if he comes: 19/55 since ’95)
Brad Hawkins (M rank if Nico comes: 26/55 since ’95)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
18 | Aaron Wright | ’96 | 6'0 /175 | - | - | - | - | 4.00 |
19 | Nico Collins | ’17 | 6'5/195 | 6.0 (#9 WR) #59 OVR | 4* (#21 WR) #147 OVR | 82 (#22 WR) #154 OVR | 93 (#24 WR) #157 OVR | 4.00 |
20 | Terrence Robinson | ’08 | 5'9/170 | 5.8 (#9 RB) not ranked | 4* (#16 RB) #160 OVR | 82 (#18 ATH) #180 OVR | - | 3.93 |
21 | Amara Darboh | ’12 | 6'2/190 | 5.8 (#30 WR) #215 OVR | 4* (#32 WR) #205 OVR | 78 (#82 WR) not ranked | 93 (#26 WR) #199 OVR | 3.90 |
22 | Carl Tabb | ’02 | 6'2/171 | 4* (#30 WR) not ranked | 4* (#28 WR) not ranked | #NR OVR | - | 3.90 |
23 | Greg Mathews | ’06 | 6'3/189 | 5.9 (#8 WR) #93 OVR | 3* (#39 WR) not ranked | 78 (#33 WR) not ranked | - | 3.87 |
24 | Dennis Norfleet | ’12 | 5'7/170 | 5.8 (#5 RB) #236 OVR | 4* (#19 RB) #163 OVR | 73 (#80 RB) not ranked | 94 (#7 APB) #169 OVR | 3.85 |
25 | Devin Funchess | ’12 | 6'5/205 | 5.7 (#14 TE) not ranked | 4* (#8 TE) #221 OVR | 81 (#5 TE) #203 OVR | 90 (#10 TE) not ranked | 3.85 |
26 | Brad Hawkins | ’17 | 6'2/195 | 5.8(#53 WR) not ranked | 4* (#44 WR) #269 OVR | 82 (#26 WR) #193 OVR | 88 (#67 WR) #482 OVR | 3.80 |
27 | Steve Breaston | ’02 | 6'1/170 | 4* (#8 ATH) not ranked | 4* (#30 QB) not ranked | #NR OVR | - | 3.80 |
28 | Jeremy Gallon | ’09 | 5'8/165 | 5.9 (#11 ATH) #151 OVR | 3* (#45 WR) not ranked | 77 (#80 ATH) not ranked | - | 3.73 |
29 | Eddie McDoom | ’16 | 6'1/180 | 5.7(#75 WR) not ranked | 3* (#74 WR) not ranked | 82 (#23 WR) #184 OVR | 88 (#66 WR) #403 OVR | 3.70 |
30 | Tyrece Butler | ’99 | 6'3/200 | - | - | - | - | 3.70 |
31 | Ronald Bellamy | ’99 | 6'0 /175 | - | - | - | - | 3.70 |
32 | Jaron Dukes | ’13 | 6'4/197 | 5.7 (#60 WR) not ranked | 3* (#46 WR) not ranked | 83 (#33 WR) #233 OVR | 87 (#84 WR) not ranked | 3.70 |
I used Hawkins’s rankings from last year (he’s darker yellow). He ended up being fairly similar to Darboh, who was about the same size and similarly hung around the bottom of Top 250 lists with one site considerably less excited. In Hawkins’s case that’s 247, though that could be a reflection of concern he wouldn’t make it.
Target Nico Collins is ranked tightly around the early 20th receiver and 150th overall except to Rivals, who has him knocking on the door of the Top 50. Kekoa Crawford was in the same range as a recruit, but if Funchess was re-ranked as a receiver prospect that might be the better comparison. It also suggests why he’s such a big deal.
Tight Ends
None in this class but Asiasi is #1 of 33 guys. Butt was #3. Gentry is #5, Bunting #7, Eubanks #12 and Wheatley #13. The only top 10 recruits who weren’t on the 2016 roster were 2001 bust Kyle Ealey, two converted WRs (Massaquoi and Ricardo Miller), Brandon Moore, Kevin Koger, and Aaron Shea. It’s fair to say Michigan has more talent at the position right now than any time since two-receiver sets became the norm.
Centers
Cesar Ruiz (#4/17 since 1995)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
1 | Justin Boren | ’06 | 6'3/319 | 6.0 (#1 C) #64 OVR | 5* (#7 OL) #42 OVR | 85 (#2 OG) #71 OVR | - | 4.53 |
2 | Jason Brooks | ’97 | 6'3 /267 | 6.1 (#1 C) to NRA | SUPERPREP: #9 OL | #1 Ohio OL, #3 Ohio OVR | Parade HM | 4.50 |
3 | Patrick Kugler | ’13 | 6'5/280 | 6.0 (#6 OG) #82 OVR | 5* (#1 OG) #27 OVR | 84 (#3 OG) #101 OVR | 94 (#2 OC) #97 OVR | 4.45 |
4 | Cesar Ruiz | ’17 | 6'3/315 | 5.9 (#1 C) #77 OVR | 4* (#2 C) #100 OVR | 84 (#1 OC) #69 OVR | 95 (#1 OC) #66 OVR | 4.40 |
5 | Mason Cole | ’14 | 6'5/275 | 5.9 (#6 OT) #92 OVR | 4* (#18 OT) #253 OVR | 83 (#10 OG) #165 OVR | 96 (#4 OG) #87 OVR | 4.25 |
6 | David Brandt | ’96 | 6'4 /265 | - | SUPERPREP: #15 DL Top50 | - | - | 4.20 |
7 | David Baas | ’00 | 6'5/295 | All-Florida | SUPERPREP: #16 OL | - | All-USA (hon mtn) | 4.20 |
I broke out the centers separately because Ruiz is among those recruited specifically for the spot, and the little I know of football makes me a strong believer in the belief that your O-linemen need a peculiar type of mental makeup as well as physical, and that this is triple-true at center.
Our current crop is close, with Ruiz similar in size and ranking (but probably not personality) to Justin Boren. All of these guys save Jason Brooks, who got into some trouble before he put on the requisite weight, and Patrick Kugler (argh) turned out pretty good. The fact that Ruiz is already sized as a Big Ten OL I believe makes him a candidate to start as a true freshman like Boren and Cole did. I still project that he’ll begin, like Boren, as a guard, then move to center when Cole graduates.
Note: things take a dip after Baas. The only non-consensus 4-star I have listed as a center to start more than a year was Molk. The rest are Goodwin (who was fine), Andy Brown, Mealer, Pace (who got hurt), McAvoy, Miller, Bihl (who was fine as 5th year), Khoury, and Christopfel. Ruiz if he pans out may have a case for most important recruit in this class.
Guards and Tackles
Technically the rest of the OL recruits this year are all tackles. Obviously that will change, and many of these guards were brought in as OTs—hell, 6’3 Todd Mossa was listed as an OT by every service before they talked about his potential as a guard, because in high school your ninja awesome OL play tackle.
So let’s add them all to the pile.
Chuck Filiaga (#15(tie)/70 OG/OT recruits since 1995)
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
11 | Dann O’Neill | ’08 | 6'8/291 | 6.0 (#10 OL) #49 OVR | 4* (#14 OT) #147 OVR | 85 (#4 OT) #69 OVR | - | 4.40 |
12 | Dan Simelis | ’01 | 6'6 /295 | - | SUPERPREP: #15 OT | - | - | 4.35 |
13 | Kyle Bosch | ’13 | 6'5/311 | 5.9 (#7 OL) #104 OVR | 4* (#3 OT) #49 OVR | 83 (#7 OG) #157 OVR | 94 (#4 OG) #103 OVR | 4.30 |
14 | Jake Long | ’03 | 6'7/295 | 4* (#21 OL) not ranked | 4* (#11 OL) #72 OVR | NR | - | 4.27 |
15 | Michael Onwenu | ’16 | 6'3/350 | 5.9 (#7 OG) #147 OVR | 4* (#9 OG) #140 OVR | 83 (#8 OG) #130 OVR | 95 (#1 OG) #65 OVR | 4.25 |
15 | David Dawson | ’13 | 6'5/282 | 5.8 (#9 OL) #165 OVR | 4* (#7 OG) #144 OVR | 84 (#2 OG) #91 OVR | 95 (#3 OG) #65 OVR | 4.25 |
15 | Chuck Filiaga | ’17 | 6'6/335 | 5.9 (#16 OT) #118 OVR | 4* (#15 OT) #125 OVR | 83 (#14 OT) #137 OVR | 94 (#13OT) #106 OVR | 4.25 |
15 | Erik Magnuson | ’12 | 6'6/275 | 5.9 (#10 OL) #78 OVR | 4* (#15 OT) #82 OVR | 79 (#27 OT) not ranked | 96 (#6 OT) #71 OVR | 4.25 |
19 | Chris Ziemann | ’95 | 6'7 /250 | 5.9 (#10 OL) #78 OVR | 4* (#15 OT) #82 OVR | LEMMING: #12 OT | - | 4.20 |
20 | Chris Fox | ’13 | 6'6/297 | 5.9 (#11 OL) #142 OVR | 4* (#6 OG) #118 OVR | 83 (#10 OT) #134 OVR | 94 (#6 OG) #136 OVR | 4.20 |
21 | Cory Zirbel | ’05 | 6'5/301 | 5.9 (#10 OL) #83 OVR | 4* (#20 OL) not ranked | #85 OVR | - | 4.20 |
22 | Dem. Solomon | ’99 | 6'6/260 | - | SUPERPREP: #1 OT, Top50 | - | - | 4.20 |
23 | Jeff Zuttah | ’03 | 6'4/276 | 4* (#5 OL) not ranked | 3* (#45 OL) not ranked | #80 OVR | - | 4.15 |
Onwenu’s size versus that of most OL recruits really shows here, since Filiaga is the only guy in range to come within 30 pounds. But Filiaga’s height puts him more in line with the OT prospects, of which we have plenty to choose from.
The close grouping of Filiaga’s evals were sometimes hard to narrow down to one or two comparisons, but the general excitement level for this guy should be about where it was for a ton of big Michigan OT recruits who mostly worked out or got hurt, though there were a lot (Simelis, Ziemann, Fox, Zirbel, Zuttah) of the latter.
His college-ready size probably accounts for the close agreement on his rankings, and the scouting reports all seem to concur again that he’s big enough and strong enough but has a lot of technique to go before he’s ready to play. Even eventual 1st pick in the draft Jake Long needed a redshirt year; given Michigan’s depth he may not be afforded that luxury.
Nobody else among Michigan’s recruits or targets is anywhere near this group. They’re actually all pretty comparable to each other, in a big pile of high three-star/low four-star guys of varying success:
Rk | Name | Cl | Ht/Wt* | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 247 | ☆s |
32 | Taylor Lewan | ’09 | 6'8/272 | 5.8 (#16 OL) #194 OVR | 4* (#20 OT) #274 OVR | 83 (#12 OT) #148 OVR | - | 4.00 |
33 | Grant Newsome | ’15 | 6'7/280 | 5.8 (#12 OL) #191 OVR | 4* (#32 OT) not ranked | 81 (#27 OT) #253 OVR | 92 (#23 OT) #220 OVR | 3.95 |
34 | David Moosman | ’05 | 6'5/270 | 5.8 (#11 OL) not ranked | 4* (#17 OL) not ranked | NR | - | 3.90 |
35 | Justin Schifano | ’05 | 6'4/300 | 5.8 (#12 OL) not ranked | 4* (#16 OL) not ranked | NR | - | 3.90 |
36 | Alex Mitchell | ’04 | 6'5/310 | 5.9 (#3 OL) #80 OVR | 3* (#53 OL) not ranked | NR | - | 3.90 |
37 | Ricky Barnum | ’08 | 6'3/246 | 5.8 (#5 OL) not ranked | 3* (#17 OG) not ranked | 83 (#4 OG) #150 OVR | - | 3.87 |
38 | Adam Kraus | ’03 | 6'6/270 | 4* (#10 OL) not ranked | 4* (#24 OL) not ranked | NR | - | 3.87 |
39 | Michael Schofield | ’09 | 6'7/272 | 5.8 (#18 OL) #221 OVR | 4* (#10 OT) #135 OVR | 77 (#40 OT) not ranked | - | 3.87 |
40 | Kai-Leon Herbert | ’17 | 6'5/284 | 5.8 (#26 OT) #244 OVR | 4* (#26 OT) #253 OVR | 83 (#13 OT) #108 OVR | 86 (#72 OT) #733 OVR | 3.85 |
41 | Juwann Bushell-Beatty | ’14 | 6'5/295 | 5.7 (#33 OL) not ranked | 3* (#50 OT) not ranked | 83 (#11 OT) #142 OVR | 92 (#23 OT) not ranked | 3.85 |
42 | Mekhi Becton | ’17 | 6'7/345 | 5.8 (#22 OT) #189 OVR | 3* (#44 OT) not ranked | 80 (#34 OT) not ranked | 88 (#48 OT) #468 OVR | 3.75 |
43 | Ja'Raymond Hall | ’17 | 6'5/282 | 5.6 (#77 OT) not ranked | 4* (#34 OT) not ranked | 82 (#21 OT) #172 OVR | 88 (#42 OT) #397 OVR | 3.70 |
44 | Chris Bryant | ’11 | 6'4/330 | 5.8 (#19 OL) #203 OVR | 3* (#21 OG) not ranked | 77 (#37 OG) not ranked | 89 (#NA OT) not ranked | 3.65 |
45 | Ben Braden | ’12 | 6'6/285 | 5.7 (#38 OL) not ranked | 3* (#40 OT) not ranked | 79 (#50 OT) not ranked | 89 (#40 OT) not ranked | 3.60 |
46 | Kurt Wermers | ’08 | 6'3/278 | 5.6 (#37 OL) not ranked | 4* (#11 OG) #287 OVR | 78 (#20 OG) not ranked | - | 3.60 |
47 | Jeremy Ciulla | ’04 | 6'4/275 | 5.6 (#26 OL) not ranked | 4* (#18 OL) not ranked | NR | - | 3.60 |
48 | Andrew Stueber | ’17 | 6'6/285 | 5.6 (#73 OT) not ranked | 4* (#27 OT) #264 OVR | 80 (#41 OT) not ranked | 86 (#79 OT) #780 OVR | 3.60 |
49 | Joel Honigford | ’17 | 6'6/278 | 5.7 (#49 OT) not ranked | 3* (#53 OT) not ranked | 82 (#24 OT) #205 OVR | 86 (#73 OT) #740 OVR | 3.60 |
50 | Blake Bars | ’12 | 6'5/275 | 5.8 (#32 OL) not ranked | 3* (#58 OT) not ranked | 79 (#54 OT) not ranked | 85 (#66 OT) not ranked | 3.55 |
51 | Matt Lentz | ’01 | 6'6/305 | - | - | - | - | 3.50 |
52 | Dan Samuelson | ’13 | 6'5/275 | 5.6 (#33 OL) not ranked | 4* (#25 OT) not ranked | 75 (#87 OT) not ranked | 89 (#17 OG) not ranked | 3.50 |
53 | Adam Stenavich | ’01 | 6'5/260 | - | - | - | - | 3.50 |
54 | Tony Posada | ’11 | 6'4/315 | 5.5 (NR) not ranked | 3* (#45 OT) not ranked | 78 (#34 OT) not ranked | 86 (#14 OG) not ranked | 3.45 |
55 | Stephen Spanellis | ’16 | 6'5/335 | 5.7 (#36 OT) not ranked | 3* (#54 OT) not ranked | 75 (#60 OG) not ranked | 85 (#50 OT) #994 OVR | 3.40 |
Michigan’s O-line recruiting has historically been a bit weird: a lot of high 4-stars and then a lot of large, sorta-generic 3-stars who got a ratings bump. Offensive line is notoriously unpredictable (who would have guessed four years ago that the best OTs in the conference the last two seasons would be a walk-on at MSU and a Division III transfer?) so numbers is good. Parsing the specifics of those numbers is fruitless though.
Michigan’s latest guys seem to be larger than in the past, but for a few slobs who lived up to the less amiable meaning of that sobriquet. Michigan may be looking for guys who can play right away, whereas in the past they could afford to redshirt a 6’6/270 guy and train him up for a few years before having him out there.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:53 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
different shades of Maize between Jake Long and Taylor Lewan?
Boom, off season'd!
January 12th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^
where would Henne rank in the QB chart?
January 12th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
If I had to take a guess, I would bet 3rd, with potentially Drew Henson and Ryan Mallet ahead of him.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
According to 247 comp Mallett was #5 overall in 2007 and Henne was #13 overall in 2004. Henson was before all the recruiting services but I'm pretty sure he was considered a top 5 overall guy.
January 12th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
Henson was rated the #2 QB by Prep Football Report.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 6:55 PM ^
Thanks! I've been reading since around the beginning of the Rich Rod era, but just got around to joining.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
"He ended up being fairly similar to Darboh, who was about the same size and similarly hung..."
ahem. phrasing.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:20 PM ^
Thanks - I was looking for the proper spot to make the obligatory David Terrell bomb-ass joke.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
I have a few of the old Rivals rankings from 2001 in some old files I keep because I've been following this stuff for way too long. FWIW:
Sanderson 3 stars, Not Ranked RB (This was a late bump from 2 stars. He was a better athlete than his recruiting rankings indicated. But also, weirdly, Rivals used to ding guys for character or academic issues. So back then if you were a good athlete but had grade problems, you might be a 2/3 star even if you were a top recruit. Ummm, in general.)
Simelis 4 stars, #23 OL. OL were just all grouped together. Simelis and Stenavich were kind of the two highly recruited guys for OL while Lentz and Henige were sleeper-ish.
Lentz 3 stars, #48 OL.
Stenavich 4 stars #20 OL.
Could probably dig up 90s info but would have to go through old computers in a box somewhere. someday.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
Really cool info. Thanks for this post Ace.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^
Like Morris, McCaffrey created disagreement as to whether he’s a pro-style or dual-threatI don't remember this happening or ever thinking of Morris as a dual threat guy.
January 12th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
Where's the threat? Dork Mantonio.
January 18th, 2017 at 9:28 AM ^
Not for you, but for the recruiting services. Some rated him Pro-style, while others rated him dual-threat. Emphasis MINE
January 12th, 2017 at 5:48 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
There's a name I haven't heard in a while.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
I appreciate the effort. Thanks.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^
Very nice post. Thank you
January 12th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 7:12 PM ^
Great post
January 12th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 8:28 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
Rivals had him as the #49 receiver. Late bump from a 2 star to 3 star once his senior film came out. He committed early and didn't really do any camps or anything like that so he wasn't well scouted by the services. Don't think an athlete like that would be so overlooked nowadays but there was a lot fewer camps and less video of guys back then.
January 13th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
IIRC, he played on a high school team that rarely passed.
January 12th, 2017 at 8:48 PM ^
Nice post, Thanks!
January 12th, 2017 at 8:52 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 9:40 PM ^
Love the historical perspective.
What's the deal with Patrick Kugler? He was very highly rated coming out of high school. I heard he had a shoulder injury. Is he better and couldn’t he be a contributor in 2017? Or is there too much uncertainty because he has not contributed yet?
January 12th, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^
Where was he rated?
January 13th, 2017 at 9:52 AM ^
He was switched to the OL during his freshman redshirt year, so it's reasonable to guess that he wasn't ranked at all as an OL.
January 14th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 10:53 PM ^
Seth,
I'm not sure if I'm missing something, but I would love to see the complete lists if you can post them. It's cool how people like Funchess, Breaston, Long, etc. panned out so well as low recruits. Plus seeing the old names definitely beings me back to 1st and 2nd grade learning about recruiting for the dirst time. I just remember my telling me about some jud named Justin Fargas all the time...
But either way, great write-up
January 13th, 2017 at 12:05 AM ^
Breaston was fairly well regarded as a recruit actually. He was a borderline top 100 guy in summer and then fell a bit because he was an early commit. People knew that he was a stellar athlete, that was clear. But there were questions about his size obviously. I mean even in the NFL he had a thin build and as a freshman he was tiny and probably like 160 pounds or something. Also, he played QB rather than WR in HS which probably hurt his rankings a bit as his ability to play his college position was unproven. Pretty successful as a HS QB. Played on the same HS team as Mundy if I recall correctly.
He was definitely one of those guys like an Antonio Bass who really gets played up as a practice legend before he ever takes the field. But obviously in retrospect you can see that his quickness and playmaking justified that take.
January 13th, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
Good point. I guess sometimes I get caught up thinking that if the kid is not a 5* then he's going to be just average. I obvously know that's not the case, but for whatever reason that happens from time to time. Seeing people I view as college stars (Breaston, Funchess, Long) rated lower than I expected helps me be more positive and optimistic about the recruits.
January 13th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
Yeah, I've come to not care much about individual players. Recruiting ratings are better now than they used to be a long time ago. There were no SPARQ measurements, fewer all-star games, less tape, fewer camps besides the school camps etc.
Still, recruiting is fairly inexact on an individual basis with lots of variation from rankings. Guys like Hart, Edwards, Brady were not highly regarded. But on a team level across 85 guys, those variations for both over and under performance tend to even out so aggregate rankings are extremely important on a team wide 4-5 year basis. The key is to get a lot of talent. You can miss on guys, it's ok, there's lot of good players. You can't have severe depth chart gaps though, so be wary of misses for a position in back to back years as that's when you really get into trouble.
The one exception to that is dynamic QBs. One of the two primary formulas for winning a national championship- besides just overwhelming your opponents with strong defense and cross the board talent like Alabama/mid 00s USC/Miami/90s FSU is to be a good team that has a superlative talent at QB like a Vince Young, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, DeShawn Watson, maybe you could include Tim Tebow in there. A playmaker like that is just so incredibly valuable.
January 14th, 2017 at 5:48 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^
First link called "Grand Google Sheet" in the first paragraph of Rostering 2017 that Seth posted last week.
Looks like Seth made some updates since then, with SUPERPREP and LEMMING added, so it doesn't exactly match what was posted in Jimmystats today. Just got to play around with it like an excel sheet.
Quarterbacks Ranked by Stars (Minus Kaspner and Brady)
Drew Henson |
Ryan Mallett |
Chad Henne |
Shane Morris |
Brandon Peters |
Devin Gardner |
Dylan McCaffrey |
Tate Forcier |
Clayton Richard |
Matt Gutierrez |
Denard Robinson |
Jason Kapsner |
John Navarre |
Alex Malzone |
Wilton Speight |
Steven Threet |
Jason Forcier |
John O'Korn |
Jake Rudock |
Russell Bellomy |
David Cone |
Justin Feagin |
Spencer Brinton |
Conelius Jones |
January 12th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
wow these recruits.
Wow is DPJ in excellent company.
WOW the future looks better all the time!
January 12th, 2017 at 11:59 PM ^
Awesome info and why everyone should pour themselves in salt before the "oh he is going to start over XX the minute he gets on campus" BS. All you can do is get as many highly rated guys as you can and hope for the best with the right coaching development. For every "Filiga is coming in, wrest the starting OT job as a true freshman, and gonna do great year 1!!" I'd like to point out Bredeson was more highly rated at an "easier position" along the line and was basically a black hole --- as it should be for a true freshman.
But again, great data. Should be relatively sobering and reposted once a month in offseason as all the 9-3 predictions today turn into 11-1 by the time August camp hype is in full gear.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:10 AM ^
January 13th, 2017 at 2:55 AM ^
the pre-1996 era would correspond to the Hadean eon of Earth's history: the surface dominated by a liquid magma ocean. Sounds about right to me.
January 13th, 2017 at 9:31 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
January 13th, 2017 at 9:52 AM ^
What ever became of Jason Kapsner? And why don't I even know who he is? No. 1 rated pro-style QB? Did he ever enroll here? Play a game? Looks like he would have been here during the Griese/Brady/Henson era.
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