THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic:

click for big

Michigan was 2-6 in conference on January 28th when they travelled to Nebraska. They'd fallen to 30th in Kenpom after a high-water mark of 10th immediately after Gonzaga. Since: an 8-1 record with none of the wins closer than six points and a shot straight up tourney projections and Kenpom, where Michigan has set a new high water mark on the season at #9.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Wisconsin just will not go away:

click for big

"Go away, Wisconsin," you say, and then it looks like they'll go away, and then they never go away. The Badgers were left for dead by most after a three game stretch in which  they lost to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State to fall to 4-4 on the season. Turns out Richmond is pretty good—they're in the at-large conversation—and NC State is a bubble team who they played on the road. New Mexico remains real bad and a drag on their resume.

Then a lot of people left Wisconsin for dead when Kobe King left the team midseason. Michigan State rolled into town a few days later, with Brad Davison suspended for cramming some dude's plonkers. Wisconsin improbably won that game and is on a Michigan-esque streak: they're 5-1 since King left, and they've even played most of the same teams in this stretch (Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, OSU, and MSU; Minnesota is the exception).

One major difference: all of these wins save Nebraska have been at home, and the Trohl Center remains a real and terrible thing. When Ace looked at home/road+neutral splits for Big Ten teams he found that Road Wisconsin tumbles 166 spots in offensive efficiency, losing a whopping 17 points per 100 possessions. How much of that is a real thing? I have no idea. Let's hope the answer is "lots."

PERSONNEL

Wisconsin is a Big Ten team in 2020 so they've got a good post player, and a good backup. Since OSU transfer Micah Potter got eligible they've split minutes at the 5 about down the middle between him and Nate Reuvers, who you probably remember as the shot blockin', three-shootin', rootin-tootin' power forward on last year's Ethan Happ-driven Badgers.

Reuvers has moved to the five after Happ embarked what I assume is a 30 year career schooling various former Soviet Republics on the finer points of post play. Since he's not Happ there's been an adjustment period, but Wisconsin is still heaping buckets of usage on their posts. Reuvers has done well to mostly maintain his efficiency after a close to 50% usage spike, but he's not exactly efficient. He's a hair under a 100 ORTG in Big Ten play, shooting 44% inside the line. Reuvers is a finesse big who can face up; when he's on the block he's not going to bully you into the post but rather try to find a spot for a hook shot—under 30% of his twos actually take place at the rim.

Reuvers remains a plus shot blocker and rim protector.

Potter burst onto the scene after getting eligible mid-year. The timing was ironic, as you had Andy Katz ranting about King leaving just a few games after Wisconsin started playing a guy who left Ohio State two days before their season started.

Talking heads aside, Potter is shooting 56/46/94 on big usage and has been a monster on the glass with an 11% OREB rate and a 32% DREB rate. Unlike everyone else on the roster he gets to the rim a fair bit and is effective there. Wisconsin's weathered the loss of King largely because they're a a much better offensive team with Potter on the court:

major conference opponents since Potter became eligible

The defensive improvement is probably three point luck but that difference in two point shooting on offense pops out.

Wisconsin doesn't play the two posts together much; since Potter got eligible they've done it on about 13% of their possessions. Their offense crawls in a hole and dies when this happens.

[Patrick Barron]

PG D'Mitrik Trice is close to the same guy he was last year. He generates all his own twos; half of his threes are unassisted; he almost never gets to the rim. He's a good shooter, especially given this year's Happ-less context. Moving him inside the line remains a major priority.

Trice's assist rate has shot up in the aftermath of Happ; his assist rate in Big Ten play is 30. Michigan will be better off staying in front of him and allowing him to get up shots. Passes to open shooters are going to be more efficient. PNR defense is going to be tough since Trice is rising up for a lot of threes this year and maintaining his efficiency from behind the line.

[Patrick Barron]

SG Brad Davison added to his list of malfeasances earlier this year when he rang Connor McCaffrey's tiny testicle-shaped bells. He got a flagrant, significantly damaging Wisconsin's chances in that game, and was suspended for the aforementioned MSU game. The new flop rule may as well be called the "Brad Davison rule". He's gross.

When not delivering the hundred-hand slap to beleaguered wibblies across the league, Davison is a shooting guard version of Trice. He doesn't set up his teammates as much and his TO rate is Rahk-bottom, just a hair over 10 in conference play. Stop me if you've heard this part before: he barely gets to the rim, shoots the same from two and three, and is a knockdown FT shooter.

Davison has a giant home/road discrepancy in his shooting that may or may not mean a whole lot. One thing that jumps out on his stat profile is that his three point shooting has tanked in tier A games relative to conference play; this is because he's 12/20 against Nebraska. So he enters this game very hot from behind the line (3/5 vs Rutgers, 3/5 vs Purdue, 8/11 vs Nebraska) but will be on the road against a team that isn't horrible.

Also he will try to take charges.

Brevin Pritzl moved into the starters minutes when Kobe King left. He's Just A Shooter hitting 38%. Like the other guard type objects on the roster he shoots the same percentage from two as he does from three in conference play. Subtract a few points of assist rate and a few FTs and Pritzl is statistically identical to Davison down to rim/midrange/three splits. He is a bit more three-focused than his teammates. Otherwise these are all the same guy.

PF Aleem Ford… is slightly different! He's shooting 53% from two in conference play! On just 38 attempts, so not exactly giant usage, and barely more of his attempts are at the rim than the guards, but he's fairly good inside the line on the season. This is a development for a guy who was emphatically Just A Shooter his first two years.

Ford brings a little offensive rebounding to the table but is not a helpside shotblocker.

In the aftermath of King's departure Wisconsin's bench is very thin outside the center platoon. Only two guys get any time and both try to stay as invisible as possible:

• Freshman wing Tyler Wahl has 15% usage and a TO rate near 30. He's good for exactly one bucket per game over his last six. Numbers are very thin but he's shooting 39% from the line and 19% from three so just keep him away from the rim; he is a dangerous OREB guy.
• Junior guard Trevor Anderson transferred to Wisconsin after a single year at UW-Green Bay where he was a reasonably effective Horizon League starter before an injury knocked him out. He lost most of last year to another injury; this year he's  a 12% usage guy who doesn't have enough stats to say much. He did hit 35% on 85 threes at UWGB so he's probably a decent shooter if you leave him alone.

THE RELEVANT NUMBERS

Conference four factors:

Wisconsin takes a ton of threes, second most in the league. They're hitting them at a 36% rate, which means they get more of their points from behind the line than anyone in the conference. They're 21st nationally. Meanwhile, Michigan allows fewer than almost anyone in the country.

FWIW, when Michigan played OSU—a team that's about as three-focused as Wisconsin—Michigan held them to 18 attempts, which is significantly less than their season-long trend.

As per usual Wisconsin is slow on offense—the slowest in the conference this year. Opponent possession length is the shortest in the conference, which probably doesn't mean anything but is weird.

THE KEYS

Do what you do. This game is a major clash in a few different departments:

• Wisconsin shoots a ton of threes and Michigan allows very few.
• The Badgers are a 94th percentile PNR offense; Michigan is a 97th percentile PNR defense.

This is going to be a game without a lot of fouling, and Wisconsin is going to be taking a lot of jumpers. Any jumper inside the line is a win for Michigan; every three is a win for Wisconsin. All the evidence from the past few seasons suggests that the D can control the number of threes that get up, so that should be advantage Michigan.

Get after it on the boards. Wisconsin is one of the most transition-averse teams in the country (7th fewest early shots, per hoop-math) and is pretty weak at cleaning their own boards. Franz is going to have a massive height advantage for most of the game. Ford is a ground-bound guy who Johns can out-athlete.

In a game that's not going to have a ton of turnovers either way, extra shot volume is going to come from rebounding.

Hit some shots. Particularly Franz, who's on the upswing a little bit.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.