Hoops Preview: South Carolina 2018
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #4 Michigan (9-0) vs #108 South Carolina(4-4) |
---|---|
WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | Noon Saturday |
LINE | Michigan –17 (Kenpom) |
TV | FS1 |
THE US
Michigan finally had a real game as Northwestern slowed Michigan's offense down sufficiently to allow a series of improbable shots from Vic Law and Ryan Taylor to first catch and then briefly pass Michigan down the stretch. Michigan responded; Northwestern's final attempt was reduced to an off-balance NBA three that hit the backboard and caught iron before ceasing to terrify legions of backboard-hating Michigan fans.
Now Michigan takes on their final major-conference opponent before the usual trio of buy games in mid-December and conference play beyond that. Unfortunately for Michigan's eventual seeding, South Carolina has been awful this season and currently projects as the second-worst team in the SEC.
Unless something bizarre happens this should be another suffocating defensive performance and relatively easy win.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Hassani Gravett | Sr. | 6'2, 188 | 69 | 16 | 116 | Probably not | |||||||||||
Low usage combo G suddenly shooting 42% from three after 33% last year, also 80% from line. Playmaking responsibilities much lower. Shooting potentially a mirage? | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 00 | AJ Lawson | Fr. | 6'6, 172 | 71 | 30 | 90 | Meh | |||||||||||
Rough when you're giving 30% usage to the #147 composite freshman. Terrible ORTG mostly due to 25 TO rate. Good assist numbers, 52/30 from floor, getting a ton of FTs but only hitting 60% | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | TJ Moss | Fr. | 6'2, 193 | 41 | 19 | 86 | Meh | |||||||||||
Composite #207 FR has emerged into starting lineup. Currently good at nothing. 44/33 from floor, 26 TO rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 30 | Chris Silva | Sr. | 6'9 234 | 60 | 24 | 96 | Yes | |||||||||||
Traditional PF pounds boards at both ends, has a top 100 block rate, and had nation's #1 FT rate last year. Poor from floor (48% last year, 41% this year). Lots of TOs. Gabonian. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 21 | Maik Kotsar | Jr. | 6'11, 264 | 61 | 15 | 106 | Yes | |||||||||||
Estonian has shot 47% from two and 50% from line in career. Rock bottom TO rate, so he's got that going for him. Defensive pest. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 13 | Felipe Haase | So. | 6'9 253 | 56 | 15 | 103 | Meh | |||||||||||
Chilean backs up at the 4, high FT rate, shooting decently from 3, no OREBs, no shots at rim. Many TOs. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 24 | Keyshawn Bryant | Fr. | 6'6, 190 | 41 | 28 | 92 | Yes | |||||||||||
Composite #291 FR has a ton of usage, shooting 50% from 2 with a ton of TOs. 0/7 from three on year. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Tre Campbell | Sr. | 6'2, 185 | 55 | 15 | 95 | Meh | |||||||||||
Shooting 33/28; shot 42/34 last year. Has cut down on turnovers though! | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 2 | Alanzo Frink | Fr. | 6'6, 265 | 5 | 23 | 75 | Yes | |||||||||||
NR freshman has gotten a few minutes lately due to injury to Justin Minaya. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Even Frank Martin's good teams are a bit abominable on offense. His best adjusted O mark during his time at South Carolina is 91st, which happened the same year he had the third-best defense in the country. That team beat Michigan 61-46 in a game that the mere memory of probably triggered seizures in a fair number of people reading this post, got a seven-seed in the tournament, and proceeded to go on a Final Four run.
This is not that team. This team has lost to Providence (reasonable), Wofford (okay but they're Kenpom top 100!), Stony Brook (uh), and Wyoming (uhhhhhhh). They also dropped their exhibition against a D-II team. The Gamecocks currently sport an offense Kenpom ranks 173th nationally. Also they go super fast. And swingman Justin Minaya, who had reasonably good efficiency a year ago, is out until January. This should be a bloodbath.
South Carolina's go-to guy is freshman AJ Lawson, who was barely inside the top 150 that is generally the cutoff for high-major prospects annually. He uses 30% of Gamecock possessions when he's on the floor, turning it over a quarter of the time and shooting 52/30 on the remainder. Half of his shots are from three. Good news: he gets to the free throw line a lot. Bad news: he shoots 60% once there.
Lawson may have been a bit underrated by the recruiting industry because he's Canadian—as we saw with Iggy, rankings get weird with basketball prospects from the Great North. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie actually places Lawson 49th on his latest draft rankings, one slot in front of Michigan's snake-tattooed assassin. That gives you an indication of what kind of athlete Lawson is, because he's not impressing anyone with his shooting or handling just yet.
The only other Gamecock with an acceptable ORTG after a diet of cupcakes is Hassani Gravett, a senior guard who may be living off early three point luck. After hitting 23% and 33% the last two years he's up to 42% on 33 attempts so far. His FT% has also spiked so maybe he's found a new shooting stroke that's real. Chances are there's some reversion that will happen. Gravett's beeen a high-turnover guy his whole career; Lawson has sucked away some of his usage and reduced both his TO rate and his assist rate, which was actually very good a year ago.
The four and five spots are split about equally between the United Nations contingent of Malik Kotsar (Estonia), Chris Silva (Gabon), and Felipe Haase (Chile). The former two are traditional-ish posts who are falling out of favor in the modern game, and South Carolina will have two on the floor almost half the time. Haase is willing to take a lot of threes but is hitting 28% over the course of his career. The others are inside the arc guys; if either launches it's going to be like Dererrrrrk Pardon banking one in.
If there's a star it's Silva, who uses a bunch of possessions and was the #1 player in the country last year at getting to the free throw line. His shooting has dropped off a cliff this year after not being real great a year ago (48% to 41%); he's still getting to the line a ton. The drop in shooting percentage and free throw rate is probably because even more of his usage has shifted to "other twos," which he's always taken a ton of at a poor success rate. Now 60% of his shots are in the midrange.
He's also an aggressive defender; he'll block a bunch of shots but his foul rate is stuck over 5/40 and he has issues staying on the floor. Nonetheless he's a main reason South Carolina's two-point defense is elite.
As South Carolina's offense has degraded his usage has stayed high but his percentages have declined. Like Charles Matthews, he's a guy who's very good at finishing shots created for him but not a shot creator himself.
Haase is a stretch four who plays a finesse game and isn't much of a shot-blocker or rebounder. 8% of his shot are at the rim. He's just a shooter. Kotsar is strictly a garbageman on offense; he's got low usage, a poor two-point shooting game (48%) and a rock bottom TO rate. He does block a fair number of shots and his handsy defense pokes a lot of balls free without exposing him to a ton of fouls.
The final starter is freshman TJ Moss, who sat out the first couple games but has played 25+ minutes in South Carolina's three most recent outings. He is not ready for this, with a TO rate of 26 and 44/33 shooting with close to no free throws.
There are two bench players other than Haase that get a meaningful amount of time. Keyshawn Bryant, a close-to-unranked freshman who's 0-fer on the season from three and turns the ball over a bunch. He's a driver who will take a bunch of tough shots at the rim. He fouled out in 16 minutes against Wyoming. Tre Campbell is a senior who shot 42/34 last year in just under ten minutes a game. He's at 33/28 this year with about two thirds of his shots from behind the line.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Grim. Grim, grim grim. Highlights:
- South Carolina is the #19 team in offensive tempo as they try to get shots up before the half-court can get established. This is a good way to get yourself in a giant hole against Michigan.
- Nobody can shoot at all: #252 on threes, #236 on twos.
- Also they turn the ball over 20% of the time.
- There's nothing legitimately good on offense except they don't get a lot of shots blocked.
The South Carolina defense is significantly better. They're 4th in 2PT% D but unlike Michigan this comes at a heavy cost: a ton of threes go up and they're #302 in 3P% D. That might be bad luck but also South Carolina hasn't played an opponent better than #60 Providence this year.
The Gamecocks do block a lot of shots, force a lot of turnovers, and rebound well. Their FT rate allowed is bad but depending on who they're putting on the line, eh, that's fine.
THE KEYS
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Find a solution to sagging off X. Northwestern dared Simpson to shoot; he shot; the shots did not go in. Finding something that can help in the likely event that other teams notice and adopt that strategy is a priority.
Get back and rebound. The usual. South Carolina probably won't crack 0.9 PPP unless they get a lot of transition (deeply unlikely) or offensive rebounds. Rebounding hasn't been a major issue for Michigan even against a couple of teams that crash the offensive glass super hard. South Carolina is not in the same league as UNC in that department.
Hit open threes. Also like a couple of recent opponents, this is a team that will suck down in the paint and allow you to kick the ball around the perimeter until it finds an open man. Michigan found it tough going against a Northwestern defense in the same vein as their own; this should be closer to the Purdue and UNC games in which Michigan hit 50%.
Get 'em into Vic Law territory. This team of clankers isn't going to be hitting stepback NBA threes.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 17.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
So, hopefully lots of rotation. Many are clamoring for Johns and Castleton; I'm fine with that. It is possible that one of them can absorb minutes at the 5 without hampering the team elsewhere. It is also possible that Davis (and/or Z) improves in crucial ways over the course of the season and is a different player in the stretch run. Beilein's teams have certainly seen that happen before. The book isn't close on a Beilein player until he graduates or transfers.
December 7th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^
i hope castleton is redshirted, since he is so damn skinny. so i would focus more PT for johns unless castleton is killing it in practice. but ya, need more minutes for johns and dejulius.
December 7th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
Its too late for a redshirt on Castleton, isnt it? He has already played.
December 7th, 2018 at 9:37 PM ^
In the presser about the game Beilein indicated that viewers might well see Johns in tomorrow.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
I went to the game in Columbia SC. My god that was just brutal and made me seriously question Coach B. I apologize coach B I should have known better.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
That was one of the worst games of the Coach B era...it was real grim.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
That Michigan team still won the Big Ten tournament, was 2 points from the Elite 8, and finished 4th on O to Kenpom. All Hail Beilein.
December 7th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
All Hail Beilein. Eternal May He Reign.
December 7th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
Unfortunately I was there too. We were visiting my parents for Thanksgiving in Charlotte and I had the brilliant idea of taking my dad and my son (he was 5 at the time...his first in-person Michigan game of any kind) since it was relatively close. My son was so excited, all decked out in maize and blue from head to foot, and I felt absolutely awful as that game unfolded the way that it did, as he continued to cheer for any tiny positive result for Michigan. Three huge South Carolina fans behind us kept screaming "go do some shit in there!!" which I guess is how they cheer their team on. My dad threw in the towel with about 4 minutes left, and by then my son looked almost as miserable as I was. It felt like we lost by 30 points.
December 7th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
Revenge tour game then.
December 7th, 2018 at 8:32 PM ^
Thats why reactionary sentiment after a single contest is so annoying. Every team in the history of sport has had games where they get their asses kicked by inferior opponents. Look at the Lions vs. NE this season. The greatest team in the history of sports, the Soviet 1980 Ice Hockey team, lost to a ragtag bunch of college kids that only had a couple world class players on the entire roster, none of which would have made the Russians B team. It happens.
As an aside, I remember a documentary on the 1980 Olympic team where I believe it was Fetisov who stated that when he returned home he was asked over and again if they were all drunk when they played us.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
I attended that 61-46 game in Columbia with my father-in-law. It was one of the worst games I've ever seen any team play, in-person or on TV. I think we shot 22 percent for the game, including 2-of-24 from deep. Yeeeesh.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
"Remember how great it was when South Carolina went to the Final Four?"
- Nobody, ever, including South Carolina Fans
December 7th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
But apparently they do some shit in there.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
Here's to a ho hum KenPom cover whilst developing Johns and Dejulius
December 7th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
If Davis continues to be a liability, I think that Johns could start to get some more PT. I think that people expecting DeJulius to play any kind of notable role this year are probably going to be disappointed. Seldom do players just "appear" in Beilein's rotation if they are not there to begin the year. Beilein was unsure as to who was going to run the team better early in the year last year, so Brooks and Simpson kind of sparred for a while until the rotation was settled, but Beilein usually settles on an eight man rotation and that is who you get, it is just how he operates. If freshman are going to play they are just playing from the jump.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
While I agree this is the typical route Beilein goes, we have seen some younger players earn playing time late. Mo and LeVert were both seldom used early in their freshmen year, then played as regular rotation players come March and the tournament. They were not as highly recruited as DeJulius, Johns, or Castleton.
I don't think any of the freshmen currently will rise to those levels (especially because we are playing so well right now), but the past shows that there is potential for it to happen, even if it is unlikely.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
This South Carolina team does things the Max Power way on offense
December 7th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
+1 for the reference.
Isn't that the wrong way but faster?
December 7th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Frank Martin looks like Mr. Bean's brother.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
I don't know, he kind of looks like a Russian mobster in a Bourne movie to me.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
or like this guy...
December 7th, 2018 at 5:23 PM ^
this guy is more tame than martin
December 7th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
I became a fan of Frank Martin after watching this. Required viewing for any parent with kids in youth sports, IMO. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc5BfCCFzQI
December 7th, 2018 at 6:35 PM ^
That's fantastic
December 7th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Coach Martin sat behind me at Easter Mass when he was at KSU in Manhattan, KS in 2011. Even at Mass, he has high expectations, and yelled at the usher for poor hand placement when passing around the collection basket.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
Fast and bad at offense is probably not the way to go against this team. Should be a fun one.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Put it to'em Blue.
Let's get some minutes for Johns and Dejulius.
Go Blue.
December 7th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Anyone interested in going to the game? I have a pair of tickets (Sec 209, Row 33, Seats 5 and 6) that I cannot use anymore. Looking for $20 per (face is $25). E-mail me at [email protected] if interested!
Go Blue!
December 7th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
Doesn't seem like Michigan needs to worry too much about how an individual opponent might affect their seeding. They're clearly in the picture for a one or two seed, and South Carolina would only matter to that end if they were a top-20 opponent. So they might as well be terrible and make for an easy game after a stretch of good/tough opponents.
December 7th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
The start of a stretch of games where we can see who can get more minutes off of the bench. I'm hopeful that Johns will step up. It would be very nice if he could give us a solid 10-15 minutes per game.
This will be my first basketball game in AA despite being a football season ticket holder. I'm excited to see this team play in person. Go Blue.
December 7th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
FYI: Gabonese, not Gabonian. :)
December 7th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Should Michigan win this isn’t bad as a fourth best non-con win. The meat of the non-con should prove to be UNC, Nova, and Providence in that order and all three teams are doing fairly well.
UNC should be interesting they have a couple of huge games coming up against Gonzaga and Kentucky. Believe both are at home so they should have a chance which would definitely help our team.
December 7th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^
I still shudder thinking of that 61-46 game. We shot a brutal figure from downtown, like 2-27 or thereabouts. I'll take any win tomorrow.
December 8th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Michigan had a Groupon (!!) going for the Air Force game earlier this week, selling upper level, nose-bleed tix for $10 each. Seems like this team should be beyond Groupon... but it's really a football school, not basketball, especially at this time of year.
December 8th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
I have unfortunately always felt Davis is a liability on the floor. I want to give him more credit and was excited about him coming out of Onsted, but I legitimately have seen little to no improvement from him over his stint. I'm eager to hit a stride in the schedule where we can get Johns and DeJulius extra minutes in live action. I'm not counting Nunez out to fill a Duncan-like role late in the season either.
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