THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Well, this is a fine how-do-yo-do: Michigan is a tiny dog tonight to Penn State, by the numbers. How far we have fallen.

Penn State was about to transfer en masse but new head coach Micah Shrewsbury was able to staple several old contributors back in place, so the starting lineup will be pretty familiar. The bench almost exclusively consists of up-transfers. Perhaps anticipating carnage, PSU only took on one major conference team outside of their mandated ACC-Big Ten matchup. That was against top-20 LSU and was an OT loss; they also lost to #69 Miami at home. A 25-point hammering at the hands of UMass—yes, that UMass—was the other notable nonconference result.

In Big Ten play PSU has a couple of good wins against Indiana and Iowa and just barely missed a Trohl Center upset of Wisconsin their last time out. They've also gotten beaten but double digits in all but a few losses.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

No issues for PSU. Dallion Johnson has technically started the last two games but he got 12 and 13 minutes in those games so we're leaving him in the subs.

THE THEM

remix [Campredon]

Center John Harrar is back for a COVID year and is exactly the same player, as you might expect. The extent to which he's the same player is obscured by the PSU nonconference schedule; in conference play he's shooting a touch better on slightly more volume, but the differences here are marginal.

Harrar does have some back-to-the-basket game but about three-quarters of his attempts are cuts/roll-man/putbacks. He's a guy who mostly gets shots others generate, save for the putbacks. Harrar continues to have outstanding OREB numbers for a guy who isn't an overwhelming athlete. He was somehow the conference's best OREB guy a year ago and he's in second this year. That work on the boards goes a lot way to explaining his FT rate, which is similarly huge. Last year his 93(!!!) led the conference and he was fourth nationally.

Harrar is nonexistent as a rim protector. Synergy has him as a 57th percentile post defender, and since they do not adjust for SOS that indicates he should be ripe for picking.

PSU does not have an actual four in the starting lineup. Burlywing Seth Lundy is the closest thing to a four. He operates a lot like Caleb Houstan except with even more extreme shooting splits. On unguarded catch and shoot opportunities he's averaging 1.5 PPP. On guarded ones? 0.7. Lundy is okay when he gets to the rim, but only that, and doesn't make much of an impact on the boards.

Lundy looks like he's getting propped up by PSU's nonconference schedule inside the line. His two-point shooting numbers are ugly in Big Ten play. Keep away from rim, profit.

Myles Dread is Just A Shooter hitting 36% from deep. He's 4/15 from two on the season. Yikes.

Siena transfer Jalen Pickett is a combo guard who's maintained almost all of his efficiency even after a significant up-transfer. He's actually increased his usage in Big Ten play and slashed his TO rate by seven points from his last Siena season, which is baffling. Pickett does have one major advantage over Michigan's recent PG transfers: he's big, listed at 6'4". He facilitates like a PG and takes care of the ball, but he's allergic to the rim—about 80% of his twos are jumpers. He's good in that range at 45% but that ratio always puts a cap on your efficiency because 1) jumpers aren't as efficient as getting to the rim and 2) he produces scant free throws.

Pickett's a middling three point shooter (30% this year after 36% last year) but is a pull-up threat from everywhere, which means Eli Brooks is going to watch helplessly and pray to the reversion-to-the-mean gods.

Finally, point guard Sam Sessoms returns after a Binghamton transfer the year prior. Sessoms is a guy who will dart into the lane to do point guard things, which for him includes a fair number of questionable shots. His career two-point percentage in conference play is 42% and his turnover rate is elevated.

PSU uses him as an on-ball guy almost all of the time, with the large bulk of his half-court work in either PNR or isolation situations. He's actually more effective as an iso guy, which will be of great concern to Michigan and their slow backcourt. Sessoms also takes a ton of pull-ups that he's 89th percentile at because they're virtually all threes. This is a minor part of his game—he's averaging about 2.5 3PA per game—but it is worth noting that he's gone from 28% last year to 45% this year, and while that latter is thin and his mid-major numbers indicate he's probably not that good in real life.

The bench:

• Spindly WMU transfer Greg Lee gets almost all the backup minutes at C and also plays the four. He missed a bunch of games, then started every Big Ten game after his debut, and is now back to the bench, albeit in name only since he's getting minutes in the mid-20s. Lee's a bad shooter who faces up from time to time and will take the occasional three. He's been reasonably effective in the post but hard to imagine that'll be a thing against Dickinson.
• Gardner Webb transfer Jaheam Cornwall was a highly effective combo guard at the mid-major level. At the high major level he's Just A Shooter except he has a 23 TO rate. Also he's shooting 18% on threes. The last two years he was at 41% and 45% on high volume. In this case shooting doesn't transfer, I guess?
• Dallion Johnson technically started the last two games but only got 12 and 13 minutes in those games so we're still throwing him in the backup bin. He's just a shooter who's 11/26 on the year and has virtually no other stats except 31% two-point shooting.

THE TEMPO FREE

This looks promising for Dickinson foul issues:

The one caveat there is that Harrar is the only guy on the team who draws a significant number of fouls. But at least Dickinson is unlikely to pick up fouls because guys are driving into him. One reason for the lack of FTAs: 44% of PSU shots are threes, which they're hitting at a 33% clip. They have significant issues in conference play, where they're dead last in eFG.

Defensively PSU is remarkably nondescript in conference play, ranking 6-8th in all four factors. They defend twos well but give up a bunch of assists and are suffering 37% three point shooting against. Oddly, they're the slowest team in the conference on offense and the fastest on defense. The opposition gets about 50% more transition opportunities than PSU.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

I mean, the usual. This team goes as Hunter Dickinson goes. Foul trouble can lead to a competitive game against Nebraska. Dickinson going NBA jam can have Michigan in a competitive game at Mackey Arena. The first key for every game the rest of the season is going to be "Hunter Dickinson save us."

Don't get torched on pull-ups, ha ha ha . It's gotten to the point where I see a team that relies a lot on pull-up twos and I think "oh no," instead of doing grinchface. The good(?) news is that Brooks is down to allowing 1.4 PPP off the dribble, which is no longer first percentile. It's second percentile.

I maintain that some of this is Brooks being short and not a pogo-stick but big chunks are just gross luck.

More from Moussa. Diabate got pulled for performance against Purdue and Brandon Johns didn't exactly pick up the slack. PSU is going to be running out seriously undersized fours for most of this game and Diabate needs to get on the offensive glass and wipe out opposition.

Caleb Houstan, et al, rotate. Particularly on Lundy, Dread, and the two bench shooters. PSU has a high concentration of offensive one-trick ponies who are only really good at shooting open threes. Assuming that Sessoms is going to get in the lane and Michigan is going to help, can Michigan get over to those guys and activate the 25th percentile stuff instead of the 85th percentile stuff?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

PSU by 1.