5-star wing Caleb Houstan gave Michigan the NUMBER ONE RECRUITING CLASS IN AMERICA when he pledged to the Wolverines today. A quote from the Frankie Collins Hello Post intro seems quite appropriate given the circumstances:

For all the moaning about some of the recent misses on the recruiting trail, Juwan Howard just secured his third 4star of the 2021 cycle when Frankie Collins announced his commitment to Michigan tonight. Collins joins 4star wing Kobe Bufkin, 4star wing Isaiah Barnes and 3star big Will Tschetter to give Michigan a top 5 class in America on the heels of a top 15 haul in 2020. 

Perhaps this will calm the bevy of naysayers with respect to Juwan Howard’s recruiting chops.

GURU RANKINGS

Rivals	ESPN	247	Endless Motor
5*, #11 overall, #3 SF	5*, #10 overall, #2 SF, #2 FL	5*, #9 overall, #2 PF, #1 FL	5*, #9-12 overall PF

There is consensus on Houstan as a 5-star prospect, within the 9 – 12 range overall. All four services list Caleb at 6’8, with ESPN reflecting an outdated weight of 175 pounds. While there aren’t any recent measurements to verify, he does look to be a legit 6’7 – 6’8 and likely in the 190-200 pound range. 

Note – I haven’t taken up the task of individual player rankings in 2021 with the health crisis precluding live evaluations to a large degree. I need live evaluation opportunities against legit competition on a relatively level playing field in order to adequately rank hundreds of prospects. I am comfortable issuing a general star ranking/tiered structure as indicated above. In more simplistic terminology, I’d probably have Houstan in the 9 - 12 range overall pending more detailed live viewings.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

SCOUTING

The 5-star wing curse has ended! This is a monster pickup for perception and momentum purposes in addition to the on-court value that Caleb brings to Ann Arbor. 

Caleb fills the void of designated wing shooter in a class that features two playmaking perimeter players in Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin. He’s literally the perfect complimentary piece to the best haul in the country as we speak. 

Houstan is one of the premier perimeter shotmakers in America. He’s at his best as a catch and shoot threat coming off screens or from a stationary position on the wing/corners. His mechanics are remarkably consistent, with a high release point, good arch and nice rotation. The sheer volume of his makes that don’t touch the rim is almost unbelievable. While Caleb has more of a set-shot, his combination of size/length will make that largely irrelevant at the college level, where closeouts aren’t likely to bother his shot. He also excels at relocating to give his guard optimal passing windows that maximize spacing. 

While he was primarily an off-ball shooter for a loaded Montverde team during his junior season, Houstan was more of an on-ball option in the half-court for Canada at the 2019 FIBA U16s. He did display some ability to create plays for himself and others in that setting, but he’s not a shifty prospect that changes direction with a live dribble very often. He’s more adept at attacking in a straight line after getting off-ball screens, while flashing the occasional pull-up from midrange and isolation drive from the wing. 

As a finisher, I really like Caleb’s willingness to use his body to negate shotblocking. He consistently gets into the chest of the defender to create space and convert or draw fouls. He shot nearly 9 free throws per contest during the 2019 FIBAs because of this exact approach. That is extremely impressive for a prospect whose best weapon is a catch-and-shoot jumper. While he’s not a great athlete, his size/length and physicality as a finisher probably means he’ll be solid at drawing free throws for the Wolverines when attacking closeouts. 

Defensively, Houstan is solid at jumping passing lanes on the wing where his length aids him in getting deflections and steals. He doesn’t move well enough to defend legitimate guards, but his size/length will allow him to defend pure wings as a freshman and he’ll likely add enough muscle mass/strength to defend bully-ball power forwards down the line. 

Most third party scouting reports are recent in nature, as Caleb is originally from Canada, thus depriving US scouts from seeing him live until the 2019 FIBAs for the most part. The mainstream Canadian scouting service is North Pole Hoops, who concurs with the shooting mechanics but probably oversold his on-ball ability back in their 2019 evaluation:

He’s got a great blend of size and skill at the wing, with clean shooting mechanics and an ability to create his own shot at all three levels. He plays with a great sense of poise and it feels like he always makes the right play when he has the ball. Now in his second season with Montverde Academy, Houstan should continue putting NCAA and NBA scouts on notice.

A May 2020 report from former Rivals’ scout Corey Evans pretty much mirrors my take on Houstan:

Growing to 6-foot-8 and weighing 200-pounds, Houstan is a reflection of all that one looks for in a new-age forward: he is a supreme jump shooter that can hit off of the spot-up, running off a variety of screens and out of the mid-range pull-up.

Clint Jackson of the Rivals affiliate for Duke jumped on board with Caleb as an elite shooter in his July 2020 piece:

Houstan is a tremendous shooter off the catch and shows the propensity to make shots on the move in a pull-up fashion. He loves the long-range bombs, but really stands out as a mid-range and high-post shooter, too.

247 highlighted Houstan’s versatility as a scorer and athletic limitations last month:

Has good size as a combo forward with shooting range. Not overly athletic, but plays with strength and has body control. Dangerous three-point shooter. Finishes well inside the arc. Is composed with the basketball. Solid handler and passer. Strong rebounder. Comes up with points off the glass. Positional defender with versatility defensively.

OFFERS

Caleb chose Michigan over remaining finalists Duke, Virginia and Alabama. He also held offers from North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan State, Maryland, Oregon and others. Juwan Howard just beat Duke(!) and another blueblood in a head-to-head matchup…again.

HIGH SCHOOL

Houstan attends Montverde Academy in Florida. The team is annually loaded with elite talent and will likely roll out another top 5 roster nationally. Current Wolverine Zeb Jackson also attended Montverde. 

STATS

Caleb put up 22.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2 assists per contest during the 2019 U16 FIBAs for Canada.  

VIDEO

2019-20 Season Highlights at Montverde:

2019 FIBA U16 Highlights:

2018 Canadian HS Highlights:

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Caleb Houstan will see the court early and often as a freshman with Isaiah Livers very likely to pursue professional opportunities and Franz Wagner a candidate himself. The Wolverines needed a shooter with size to step in immediately, and Juwan Howard and crew have their guy. 

While he may need to add some muscle mass, his size and role on the wing means that physicality isn’t an issue here. We must also remember that Houstan is still 17 years old, he can mature a lot physically over the next year. 

Caleb has a very defined role at Michigan, make perimeter shots. You can expect the coaching staff to put him in positions to do just that. I’d expect a good volume of Spain PnR, the double-stagger and using Houstan as a popper in traditional pick and roll action to get him catch-and-shoot looks from distance. These actions will also put him in position to attack closeouts off the bounce. 

While he isn’t necessarily an isolation scorer just yet, his aggressiveness and physicality bode well for him being able to generate free throw attempts later in his freshman season and beyond. He’s never going to be a primary on-ball creator at Michigan, and he doesn’t need to be with Zeb Jackson, Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin all setting the table. A secondary playmaking threat is what we need, and he’ll be just fine in that role. 

Defense is the only place where questions are presented. Caleb doesn’t move well enough to defend at the point of attack and may not be strong enough early on to adequately defend physically imposing slashers. But he does possess good size/length and displays solid defensive instincts. He should be fine at defending traditional catch and shoot wings where that length should prove helpful in contesting jumpers on the perimeter and coming up with deflections and steals. He projects to be a solid defender after his freshman year with additional strength and muscle gains. 

I’d expect Houstan to play at least 20 minutes per contest as a freshman wing, regardless of whether Chaundee Brown’s waiver is denied (doubtful, but this is the NCAA so nothing is certain). Caleb will be the best shooter on the team from the day he steps on campus and he’ll have a Zak Irvin freshman shooter role at minimum. If Livers, Franz and Brown all depart, we’re likely to see Houstan log closer to 30 minutes a game. 

A reasonable projection for Caleb if Franz returns is 7-11 points per game on 18-23 minutes along with a few rebounds and some occasional flashes of creating off the bounce. If Franz decides to test the professional waters, Houstan likely becomes a top 3 option offensively, where he’s likely to average double-digit points during his first year.

Defensively, he’ll have some struggles as a freshman as they all do. But I do believe his length on the perimeter will mitigate some of his agility issues. Once he adds muscle mass, his defensive chops will improve considerably. 

Caleb’s best comp for a recent Michigan player is Isaiah Livers. Similar size, with Houstan probably a better shooter in high school and Livers the better athlete. And the roles at Michigan will be similar, though I expect Caleb to be a better on-ball creator once he establishes comfort at the college level. That probably looks like a 35%+ shooter from distance, while drawing fouls at a higher rate, with a similar impact on the glass. 

While he’s a 5-star prospect in the 2021 class, Caleb Houstan doesn’t possess NBA caliber athleticism. He’s going to need a monster year shooting the ball in order to be appealing to NBA GMs after year one. There is a reasonable chance he returns for his sophomore campaign where all-conference recognition is certainly attainable. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

It is absolutely pointless to project the upshot here with the NCAA granting an additional year of eligibility for seniors. We’ll likely have at least 1 more spot for the 2021 class.  Enjoy the #1 recruiting class in America and don’t worry about the future for now.