ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#3 Michigan vs #2 North Dakota
WHERE	Centene Community Ice Center "Maryland Heights", MO
WHEN	8:30 PM EDT
KRACH Prob.	North Dakota (60%)
TELEVISION	ESPNU

OVERVIEW

Michigan takes on North Dakota in the first round of the NCAA Hockey Tournament tonight, a matchup of two of the most historic brands in college hockey. The victor will advance to take on the winner of the Michigan State/WMU game, which directly proceeds this contest. Also, these games are taking place in a 2,500 seat practice facility used by the St. Louis Blues in an innocuous suburb I am told is called "Maryland Heights". That rink also appears to be attached to a casino. This tournament is something.  

THE US

Michigan lost its most recent hockey game, an overtime defeat against Michigan State in the B1G Hockey Tournament championship game. I am not going to comment more about what happened specifically in that game because if I do, I will be put in prison. Regardless, Michigan continues to play very competitive games, hot as of late on the whole and playing better defense. They need to continue to improve at eliminating the *big* mistake but issues in goal prevention tend to be more about goaltending than defense as of late. Michigan continues to score in bulk as they remain an elite offensive team, with the nation's #1 power play. Now we'll see if NoDak's defense and goaltending is up to the task. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Them]

Another pic from last time around [Patrick Barron]

THE THEM

If you read my previous hockey columns or listened to the hockey segments of the MGoPod and then checked out until now, you are probably very surprised Michigan is playing North Dakota. We had believed it was going to Maine or Quinnipiac, but a couple surprising results in the final weekend shook the picture up. NoDak was upset by Nebraska-Omaha in the NCHC semifinals and Quinnipiac was massively upset by St. Lawrence in the ECAC semis, a combination of results that combined to drop the Fighting Hawks off the 1 line. With Wisconsin and Minnesota both on the 2 line, that made North Dakota one of the few options Michigan could play and so here we are. 

For North Dakota, that shake-up on the last weekend was a cruel twist of fate. The Hawks had been a projected #1 seed for months, usually in that 3rd overall spot, which meant they would be headed to Sioux Falls where they could have an overwhelming home crowd advantage. Instead, one slip up and they are the #2 seed in the most loaded region of the tournament, playing 800 miles from home. You have to think they'll be a little upset about how things went in the NCHC Tournament and this draw, a region with no pushover teams. Maybe that annoyance will give them extra motivation, which wouldn't be ideal because a team this good doesn't need any extra motivation. 

I described North Dakota on the HockeyCast as a classic college hockey team, the sort that dominated the sport before players with elite NHL potential like Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli started showing up and enrolling in college. The Fighting Hawks don't really have any players that you would describe as blue chip, but 11 players are drafted between the 2nd and 7th rounds and many of those players are on the older side. Building a roster of experienced, veteran players with enough skill to get drafted somewhere is still a pretty useful model to field a good college hockey team. 

[Dobber Prospects]

It also helps to have a great coach, which Brad Berry is. He inherited a very good program from Dave Hakstol in 2015, who had been hired by the NHL's Philadelphia Flyers (now the coach of the Seattle Kraken) and has kept the train on the tracks even as it became firmly "his" program. Berry won a national championship in year one, a team that defeated Michigan in the regional thanks to the goal scoring prowess of Brock Boeser and the playmaking of Nick Schmaltz, both good NHL players. Since 2016, Berry has won college hockey's best conference three times (2020-22) in the regular season and has made the NCAAs (or was going to, in 2020's case) four of the past five seasons. 

The roster he's assembled is led by Jackson Blake (son of former NHLer Jason Blake), who is a classic type of player for North Dakota: Blake is a sophomore fourth rounder who played his D+1 year in the USHL before enrolling in NoDak. Blake played in the USHL with the Chicago Steel, where he was a teammate of the Fantilli bros and Nick Moldenhauer, which is a neat connection. Blake has scored 21 goals and 59 points this season, good for 2nd in the NCAA in points. 

Blake is the star of the show, but North Dakota has a number of scorers on this deep offensive team. The Fighting Hawks are 8th in goals for per game this season and they have six players with 11+ goals this season. In addition to Blake they have Owen McLaughlin (13), Cameron Berg (20), Riese Gaber (18), Jayden Perron (11), and Hunter Johannes (11). Blake has played on a line with McLaughlin as of late, while Perron, Berg, and the captain Gaber lead a high-scoring top line. Watching those two lines do battle with Michigan's Rutger McGroarty-led top line and the Nazar/Duke second line will be the real dandy of this matchup. 

 

Hello again, Keaton [UND Athletics]

North Dakota's defense is led in scoring by a 5th year player and a freshman, Garrett Pyke and Jake Livanavage, respectively. Both are left shot defensemen who play on different pairs and each have scored at least 25 points this season. Livanavage's partner in recent games has been Old Friend Keaton Pehrson, who played four seasons for Michigan before transferring to NoDak in the offseason and is now wearing an "A" on the sweater. He is still a low scoring, defense-first defenseman who I expect to see on the penalty kill for the Fighting Hawks. 

From a defensive standpoint, North Dakota is a pretty good shot suppression team. They allow 26.4 shots against per game, which is 11th-best in college hockey this season and top five among power conference teams. NoDak also doesn't take a lot of penalties, with the 7th best PIM/game mark this season. They don't totally tilt the ice, but they block a lot of shots and protect the net decently well as one of the heavier teams in college hockey as well. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Michigan's historically great power play continues to roll along unbothered, having gone 1/3 last weekend in East Lansing. They're still sitting at a cool 35.3% and will almost certainly end this season with the best percentage of the past decade anywhere in the NCAA. North Dakota's penalty kill is solid, sitting at 81.6% (22nd), but it will have its work cut out for it this evening against the likes of Seamus Casey, Rutger McGroarty, and Gavin Brindley. As we mentioned, the Fighting Hawks don't take a lot of penalties, so Michigan will need to take advantage of the limited opportunities they are going to get. 

The flip side of the special teams matchup is strength on increasing strength. North Dakota has the country's #9 power play at 25.6%, going up against Michigan's PK that has been a borderline strength for the team in the second half. Even as Michigan has continued to struggle to keep opponents off the scoresheet in the past few months, the once-dreadful penalty kill has not been one of the avenues for opponents to exploit. They held MSU to 0/2 on the PP last week and no opponent in calendar 2024 has had any real consistent success against the Michigan kill. Perhaps the likes of Cameron Berg (9 PPGs) and Riese Gaber (8 PPGs) can change that. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

GOALIES

Neither team has a goalie who has shown themselves to be a difference-maker this season. NoDak's starter has mostly been Ludvig Persson, a transfer from Miami who has seen his SV% tick up on a much better team, but not by as much as you may think. With a .906 SV% playing on a team that suppresses shots on goal pretty well, you'd logically think that perhaps Persson is not a world beater. That is a reasonable hunch in my view. Persson was the starter all year, but has not played since the second week of March due to injury. The word out of NoDak going into tonight is Persson will be back and ready to start, but in case something goes awry, freshman Hobie Hedquist should be mentioned. The Minnesotan has nearly identical stats to Persson, albeit in much easier workload (two games vs. Miami and two vs. Alaska is more than half the sample). 

Michigan's Jacob Barczewski continues to be a bit of an area of concern after a choppy game against Michigan State. Barczewski was superb in the third period and part of OT, but a lot of goals went in on him early and the eventual winner was not particularly great. Over his past five games, he's allowed 5, 4, 3, 1, and 5. His SV% in that span is .861. You're not going anywhere in the tournament if that continues, no matter how great your offense is. Michigan needs Barczewski to be sharper.  

 

[Patrick Barron]

KEYS

Avoid the big mistake. I thought Michigan's defensive game against Michigan State was mostly very good, but they made a couple ugly mistakes that led to pucks in the net against. Luca Fantilli had a terrible turnover and then lost a puck battle, leading to a goal Barczewski didn't have much chance on. A sloppy breakout pass by Ethan Edwards led to a turnover and a goal against in the second period as well. Michigan has cleaned up a lot of defensive problems, but they are still committing too many high leverage blunders. North Dakota is a good enough offensive team that if you do that again, they will punish it. 

Get a save. Don't need a lot of explanation here after writing the goalies section. The only "good" goaltending stat line from Barczewski in the last few weeks came when Michigan played a masterful defensive game and asked him to do almost nothing. Michigan needs Barczewski to be the guy who allowed one goal in two games against Notre Dame in late February if they are to survive this weekend. 

Have your best players deliver at 5v5. Michigan's Nazar-led second line delivered against MSU, but the McGroarty/Brindley line didn't find the score sheet at 5v5. It would be nice if that could change, especially when they will likely be playing top matchups against North Dakota's best players. Michigan's top line is the meat of its outrageously good power play, but they need those guys to be a little better at even strength to make it through this regional. 

PREDICTIONS

are stupid for a one game hockey playoff