In case you got milk-faced last night before the news broke, or took in so much afterwards that you don’t remember, Harbaugh’s meeting with the Minnesota Vikings about their head coaching position did not end, as we all expected, with him taking the job. Adam Schefter broke the news that Harbaugh had radioed home to say he’s coming back to coach Michigan in 2022. Candidate tabs were closed. Goodbye posts were left in the land where the unpublished Hello posts roam.

Harbaugh gave all of his staff the week off before he departed for Minneapolis, so those hoping for news or a quick resolution to all of this are going to be disappointed. I know you all have questions, though, so let’s go over what we can.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE TWIN CITIES LAST NIGHT?

Host USMNT dominated, and I mean DOMINATED Honduras in their World Cup Qualifier match that ended 3-0 and could easily have been 6-0. The game was played in frigid conditions (-15 wind chill factor) that might get them in hot water with FIFA, but if the Peruvians can schedule matches in an Incan mountain fortr—

I MEAN WITH HARBAUGH AND THE VIKINGS (but go go USA!)

Oh, nobody really knows outside of the room where it happened, and when they went their separate ways everybody’s best interest was to have others believe it was they who ended the talks. The Vikings’ ESPN reporter, whose sources are naturally coming from the front office, quickly put it out there that the franchise was turned off by Harbaugh walking in like it’s a done deal. That report does not jive at all with what Sam Webb reported before the meeting, which is that Harbaugh was preparing for the meeting by drilling on analytics with QB coach Matt Weiss. Given the timing, I interpreted this tweet from Harbaugh’s son as targeted at the ESPN report.

“according to sources” pic.twitter.com/16ewB9sXMw

— James Harbaugh (@JamesHarbaughJr) February 3, 2022

Everyone back home—including here—at least thought there was a better chance than not that Harbaugh was going to be gone this morning. Clearly, as reported everywhere, he told his staff and players that he was going to take the job if offered before he got on the plane. They knew little more than that through the whole process (except Matt Weiss, since he was involved). It wasn’t much of a jump to get from there to “he’s gone.” I figured the Vikings wouldn’t have bothered to meet with such a high-profile person in-person if they weren’t serious. Webb reported that new Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had Harbaugh 1st on his list, but needed to convince ownership.

But there’s a big jump between “We who know little think you will offer him the job” and “He will be offered the job.” Webb mentioned the ownership thing; I had a reader email me earlier in the week surprised that the Vikings were involved because a Michigan donor who doesn’t like Harbaugh is one of their owners. John U. Bacon had more than one source, and identified the minority owner by name:

Michigan Insider @SamWebb77 mentions Harbaugh's other adversary in his report today:
“There is a minority stakeholder in the Vikings with strong Michigan ties who has been adamant in expressing the view that one of the other candidates would be a better choice.” (8/13)

— John U. Bacon (@Johnubacon) February 2, 2022

That jibes with what Sam wrote yesterday: That the Vikings meeting wasn’t a perfunctory consummation/announcement, but a chance for Adofo-Mensah, Harbaugh, and go-between Matt Weiss to make their case that Harbaugh’s reputation of being difficult to work with was a Trent Baalke thing more than a Harbaugh thing, Stapleton making the case that Harbaugh is a ninny foo-foo with poopy pants, and the Wilfs presiding. I get why a Michigan fan might look at that scenario and think Team Foo-Foo Poopy Pants was outgunned by the new GM, but if long Lions fandom has taught me anything it’s that if an NFC North team’s decision-making and rationality ever find each other, it was by pure dumb luck.

The simplest explanation is that TFFPP weren’t convinced on Harbaugh, while everyone in the search committee could agree on Rams OC Kevin O’Connell, who will be officially named after the Super Bowl. My own pet theory is that the Wilfs hired Adofo-Mensah intending to take their franchise in a Moneyball direction (like the Rams), and were surprised to find themselves sitting opposite the most football guy on the planet. You and I know that fullbacks and sideline emoting is the least part of James Joseph Harbaugh, but how much of that comes across in a sit-down?

That’s hardly the end of plausible scenarios, or factors. The Wilfs and Harbaugh might have simply not hit it off. Or Harbaugh could have taken a closer look at the cap situation in Minnesota, where Kirk Cousins has a hit of $45M for this year, and needed a level of commitment to rebuilding that the front office wasn’t willing to grant him. Right now they’re a bad team without a quarterback, trapped in a long-term deal for an expensive RB facing charges for assaulting his girlfriend, and still need to shed $15 million to get under the cap.

Also, if it hasn’t happened already, we’re probably going to see a report in the near future, originating from our team, that suggests the decision was Harbaugh’s. That too will probably be mostly false, a show for those who want to believe that Harbaugh had his Bo/Texas A&M moment.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

The two most pressing matters are contracts for Harbaugh and his staff, and hiring a defensive coordinator. I’ll go back to writing those soon now that all the head coach possibility tabs are closed. Fare thee well, Harold Goodwin. The “jim harbaugh nfl but for real” site tag still has zero articles in it.

WHAT DO WE DO WITH THE COACH WHO WOULD RATHER BE ELSEWHERE?

Clearly, Jim Harbaugh was pursuing his NFL dreams, and they were serious enough that he was willing to take a (sorry, Vikings fans, but any team associated with Kirk Cousins is a) bottom-of-the-barrel opportunity. That creates three problems here, really. In ascending order of how much it matters:

• The fans want their coach to be all-in.
• The assistant coaches and players expect the boss to be all-in if they are.
• Recruits need to know what they’re getting into, not just for 2022 but for 2026.

Addressing each in turn, Michigan fans are quite used to the mental gymnastics of rooting for players who want to be in NFL but play their asses off for Michigan. If Michigan keeps winning like they did in 2021, we’ll convince ourselves this was just like the Bo to A&M thing (in which, if you read the article, Bo was an active player, not merely a prize). Many of us were ready to move on from Harbaugh after the 2-4 season in 2020, whether that was expressed in message board posts, soup emojis, or trying to recruit him to the Lions. Those who stayed in his corner are probably still in it. Those who strayed have no cause to speak. Naturally, many will anyways, but serial whiners can’t be fixed by fixing problems, and the rest can be sated by winning.

The people inside the program are going to need more than that. Those guys were left out of the loop through this whole thing. Most or all of them were rightfully concerned that they’d need to find landing places, and started reaching out to have those conversations. Coaches who should have been trying to reel in last-minute 2022 recruits or make moves with the 2023 class were glumly left to await news, followed by more twisting in the wind. The 2022 recruits already signed were surely fielding calls—everybody now hold your breath for the NCAA to do something about Ryan Day tampering with Will Johnson. Michigan’s administration, including Warde, need to know the guy they’re paying to coach the football team isn’t just updating his resume. Every boss knows what it’s like to have an employee searching for another job.

Beyond the guys in the building are those Michigan wants to convince to come here in 2023, and 2024, and yes, 2025 recruiting is already on their radars even if I refuse to let it touch mine. It was bad enough dealing with rivals telling prospective recruits “Hey man, I was just using LSU/USC for leverage to get paid, but Harbaugh would jump to the Raiders in a minute” when that wasn’t actually true. Now they need more than promises and “turkey jive” comments to make sure it stays that way.

Harbaugh’s weird makeup makes it totally plausible for him to throw himself back into the Michigan job after missing out on his NFL dream. But the thing about weird people is they have to do some extra work to understand how normal people take things. When he touches down in Ann Arbor, he needs one of two things:

1. A contract that says the NFL can’t have him, or
2. A succession plan.

WHAT DOES THE CONTRACT LOOK LIKE?

At least five years, and something like a $9 million depreciating buyout. Harbaugh is 58, and every year past 60 his value will naturally begin to diminish. It’s fair to leave open an opportunity down the road, but Michigan would need at least three years in the contract that makes sure if the NFL math changes, that franchise has to want Harbaugh so bad that Michigan can afford to offer NFL money to a top-tier candidate. Given that Harbaugh found, ultimately, zero takers this year it’s probably a given that adding a buyout hurdle to the mix would have nixed his chances of leaving.

The dollar amount doesn’t have to be super high. Someone referenced Ryan Day’s contract, which sounds about right. Mel Tucker and James Franklin extracted silly money from desperate schools by using the suggestion of interest as leverage. Harbaugh thought those contracts were so laughable that he donated his bonus money to Athletic Department employees who got hurt by the 2020 cutback, and timed it so that people like you and me wouldn’t miss the connection. Clearly, he thinks that kind of money is a joke.

What Michigan does need to do is pony up for his staff, who just graduated from “kids trying to save the ship” to “an all-star staff of potential future head coaches.” You won’t be able to keep them all together, but right now there’s blood in the water and it’s time to push the sharks away. Steve Clinkscale deserves a co-DC title. Sherrone Moore got a title bump last year, but they should make sure he’s feeling it financially, and being treated like a crucial part of the program. Ron Bellamy and Mike Hart proved themselves valuable assets with very high potential. Josh Gattis just added a week of people chewing on the idea of him as head coach of Michigan to a resume already well past the level that usually gets some plum head coaching offers. Helow and Weiss just came here last year for Harbaugh, and Weiss is coming out of a week where an NFL team just showed his department is what they value the most. Even Mike Elston, who signed on this winter, needs to know he didn’t just jump onto a ship as the captain was looking to disembark.

Not everyone needs a pay or title bump. They all deserve conversations about how they fit, and to be part of the DC hiring process. When Harbaugh tried to walk out on them, they inherited a little more ownership of what he left behind. Now that he's back, he's going to have to earn back his roster spot like everybody else.

WHAT DOES A SUCCESSION PLAN LOOK LIKE?

If Harbaugh doesn’t want to give up his NFL dreams, he needs an associate head coach. That could well be Josh Gattis, the guy I assumed Harbaugh would anoint as his successor if things went as I expected in the twin cities.

It might be a good idea anyways. Program continuity in college football is something that smart teams realized fairly recently is actually quite paramount. When I build charts about the makeup of Michigan’s team, or attrition, or recruiting, there are always huge outliers around the recent coaching changes. That’s why we saw Marcus Freeman elevated at Notre Dame when Luke Fickell was right there, and why Ohio State locked up their staff and pretended they hadn’t fired Urban Meyer for a year while installing Ryan Day and updating all his drivers.

Pointing at Josh Gattis right now and saying “He’s next,” also extends your ability to hold onto Josh Gattis, whom I remind you was the engineer of last year’s offense and the guy who put together such a receivers room we’re only a little mad about Xavier Worthy. I know there were reports put out there that said Gattis isn’t the internal hire or “didn’t pass vetting.” Let me be clear: it was horseshit.

WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT BAD INFORMATION?

There was certainly a lot of it this round, wasn’t there? Harbaugh to NFL has always been a fount of bad information. In situations like this, there are certain types of people that get sourced, and a reporter should have at least two to run with it, and three to be sure:

1. The principles, or second-hand from them. People think they can keep secrets, and then they talk, and then those people talk. Depending on how far down the telephone line you are, this kind of information can be enlightening, or completely useless. Knowing where you are in the chain is critical. Knowing the trustworthiness of your source is also critical.
2. Schembechler Hall. Everybody has sources inside the building, and there are a LOT of people inside the building. Recruiting reporters know the kids and their parents well. Longtime insiders have longtime friends serving in important roles. Michigan’s football program is so large that it’s a virtual extension of Ann Arbor the town, and it’s a small town. Things like injury news, a guy transferring, a conspicuous absence, or information provided to the team get out quickly.
3. Agents, official or otherwise. Many times there’s something somebody wants you to know because it helps their client or their friend or serves some other purpose. The most common is the coaching agents ginning up interest in their players. Savvy parents will do this for their kids in recruiting. In a coaching fiasco often information is coming from the agents, who cultivate their reporters the way that reporters cultivate their sources. If you want to know why certain insiders always seem to get the scoop, it’s because the agents trade that information for the ability to send messages through the public when they need to.
4. The donors. One way Michigan likes to reward their biggest supporters is to feed them information that would probably get out through one of the above channels anyways. This is especially true during practice, when the program is well-served to let people know that their young quarterback is killing it, but of course nobody will believe them if they just say it in a presser. They could tip off a reporter themselves, sure, but they can also give that information to someone who’s done well by them, either financially or a like a local coach they want to keep on their side. That information gets out to the insider reports as intended.
5. Made up. There’s always a Chat Sports who realizes people will take fake information in lieu of good information. There are also sometimes people with an agenda looking to take advantage of some gullible media person.

Often the breakdowns in information come from which information we are getting versus what we’re not. But this time I felt there was a lot more of the last type getting down the pipes. I can get jumping the gun on “The Vikings are a done deal” because I’m sure that’s what people left behind in Schembechler Hall believed. Reports like “Mike Hart will be the internal pick” and “Gattis didn’t pass vetting” probably came from a bad source who needs to be cut off from now on. I, for one, intend to be less trusting about information than I was before this, especially the kind of information I want to believe.

But then someone said J.J. McCarthy drove (or walked?) to Minneapolis and waited outside Vikings HQ to recruit Harbaugh back to Michigan. And as preposterous as that is, I want to believe.