The Big Ten regular season title race may have come down to Indiana's inability to score 50 damn points at home, but let's check the home stretch for the three main contenders anyway. The upshot is it's almost certainly going to take 16 wins to claim a share—there's only a 10% shot someone doesn't get there, going by Torvik's numbers. Maryland and Wisconsin have razor-thin shots to grab a share, but this is a three team race. Those teams:

PURDUE

The decks are relatively clear for the Boilers, which doesn't have a game left they're an underdog in. Their stretch run:

• @ Nebraska (60% to win)
• Illinois (88%)
• Ohio State (79%)
• @ Minnesota (64%)
• @ Northwestern (72%)

Torvik has them finishing with 16 wins ~40 percent of the time; 15 or fewer is a ~40% shot; 17 is a 20% shot.

MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State has the luxury of a half-game lead. Their closing stretch:

• @ Michigan (44%)
• @ Indiana (77%)
• Nebraska (89%)
• Michigan (69%)

These numbers don't take Nick Ward's absence into account, at least not much. By this point in the season they've got quite a lot of post-Langford MSU baked in. Thanks to the half game lead they're a slight favorite over Purdue to win a solo title. 16 wins is the most common outcome, which is a 43% shot. Their tougher schedule means 17 is harder to get to (14%) and falling short of 16 (42%) more likely. Also: Ward. 

MICHIGAN

Michigan has the hardest remaining schedule because in addition to the MSU home-and-home they've got 1) a fifth game tonight and 2) a trip to Maryland on the docket:

• @ Minnesota (69%)
• MSU (56%)
• Nebraska (85%)
• @ Maryland (51%)
• @ MSU (31%)

So their span is wider and it's much harder for them to get to 16 (30% shot) or 17(8%), although they're the main beneficiaries of the Ward injury. Winning tonight will pull them up into numbers parity with the other two teams; Purdue's schedule is easier but at that point they'd have one extra chance to lose.

[After THE JUMP: a seeding crab and the Big Ten bubble]

A BRIEF FORAY INTO CRABBING ABOUT SEEDING

Old Man Yells at bracket time: it seems like the bracketology folks are using NET as a direct seeding tool rather than an indirect one. IE: it's about your ranking, not the ranking of the folks you beat. Thus things like Universally Acclaimed One Seed Gonzaga when Wins Above Bubble and Strength Of Record have them 9th and 6th, respectively.

This isn't just humans getting distracted by the Duke win—Torvik's algorithmic attempt at seeding the field has the Zags on the top line as well. If we're doing this efficiency margin stuff all the way he's probably right. If it's about your record and not your MOV it's hard to justify Gonzaga on the top line.

This has been a brief crab about seeding.

CONFERENCE BUBBLE

Dreams of 10 Big Ten teams in the tournament have petered out as certain teams (Indiana and Nebraska, mostly) got battered into dust by a league with no lay-ups. Those two teams are still in the picture on the Bracket Matrix, but since that's an indicator with some lag slightly more than half of the brackets aren't taking Nebraska's 25-point loss at Penn State into account. Those that are:

The news is not good. Nebraska does feature on all three lists above and has Iowa to close the season, but it's their misfortune to get both Michigan and Michigan State on the road—games that they have a 15 and 11% chance of winning, respectively. That bridge may be too far. It's hard to imagine that Nebraska's getting in at 7-13 in league play, so an at-large bid almost requires a massive upset at one of the conference leaders and sweeping Purdue and Iowa at home. A long shot, to say the least.

There might be a chance, though: Torvik has them the first team out if they finish 2-2 and the last team in once you add a 1-1 conference tourney. I kind of feel like the algorithm isn't accounting for the committee turning up its nose to a team that (hypothetically) went 7-13 in conference play. While they've favored major college programs in the past "we lost two thirds of our conference games" is a tough Rubicon to cross. It would be easier to pick a mid-major like Furman or Arizona State or Saint Mary's or San Francisco.

Indiana also has a difficult path to an at large but they're not quite dead yet. Winning 4 of 5 down the stretch would probably get them an 11, per Torvik. At 17-14 with three very marquee wins they'd have an argument. Now, Indiana "winning" basketball games is not a thing they've decided to do. But if they changed their mind.

On the happier side of the bubble, Ohio State is probably in as long as they don't completely implode. The worst possible 1-4 finish (win @ Northwestern, lose otherwise) and a one-and-done tourney still sees Torvik project them in the field, with a bye and everything. Any two wins will probably do for them.

Minnesota is in a similar situation: win two of your last five and you're probably a lock no matter what indignity befalls you in the conference tourney. They're in slightly worse shape and could fall into Dayton if they don't pick off one of their three marquee opportunities (Michigan, Purdue, Maryland).

Everyone else is in. I ran a lose-out for Iowa, including a NW game in the conference tourney and it only put them on the 8 line. They'd be 20-12 with wins over Michigan and Iowa State. They're in. The top five teams are stone cold locks.