One more non-conference game to go! Bowling Green comes to town this weekend for a homecoming with Carr-era coaches and assistants of yore, starting with head-man Scot Loeffler and continuing down to the likes of Erik Campbell and Steve Morrison. The BGSU Falcons are 1-1 on the season and coming off a 6-7 campaign where they qualified for a bowl for the first time in the Loeffler era but were defeated by New Mexico State in Detroit in the Quick Lane Bowl.  

 

The Film: Bowling Green has played two games so far this season, Liberty and Eastern Illinois. One of those teams is an FBS squad and one of them is an FCS squad. Not much choice on which game to go with this week. Better than last week, where there was no choice altogether and we got locked into a meaningless game with a low-level FCS team, but there is still a large gap in quality of opponent between Liberty and Michigan. Oh well. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

The Bowling Green Falcons are led by Connor Bazelak at QB, the same QB from Indiana (and previously Missouri). My preseason hopes that Bazelak could find a home with Scot Loeffler and return to his higher quality of play from his SEC days has so far not come to fruition. His performance in this game against Liberty was ghastly (albeit, with shoddy pressure as a factor). Bazelak was much better against EIU but hard to know how much of that was strength of competition related. Loeffler took Bazelak off the field after three interceptions against Liberty and gave Camden Orth a shot, but they are not a 1:1 substitution; Orth is a more mobile QB so if he comes on the field, it's probably a tip to the D. 

At RB, the Falcons have been dividing carries heavily in the first two games, with Terion Stewart, Jaison Patterson, PaSean Wimberly, and Ta'ron Keith all with between 17 and 7 carries this season. In the game I watched, I was not able to distinguish between these players in any major way. They all seemed competent. PFF really likes Keith, but we're going off of just seven carries for him. Not enough of a sample size to speak confidently about. 

The WR core is where we find the Dangerman, Odieu Hiliare, a second team All-MAC receiver last season who caught 58 balls for 747 yards and 6 TDs in 2022. He's not a big dude at 6'0", but you can line him up inside or outside and he probably represents the best receiver Michigan has faced this non-conference. Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim, a transfer from Alabama A&M (where he played with Hiliare, who transferred from there the prior season), has caught six balls so far this season but didn't catch my eye in this game. BGSU plays in 12 a lot thanks to an affinity for TEs, but when they're in 11 the third receiver is normally Austin Osborne. Farther down the depth chart is Finn Hogan and Jaylen Tillman, but neither have a catch this season in their ~25 snaps each over two games. 

Like I mentioned, Loeffler does like his TEs, Harold Fannin Jr. being the main catchy TE. I wasn't terribly impressed with Fannin as a blocker, but he is a decent pass-catcher and the Bowling Green offense loves to get him the football. Fannin leads the team with nine catches and 138 receiving yards through two games. Andrew Bench is the larger, #2 TE on the depth chart who was perhaps marginally better as a blocker, but neither impressed me in that regard. Levi Gazarek is the clear #3 with no obvious #4 behind him, but in terms of usage, it's the Fannin show and then everyone else at this position. 

The offensive line put up a solid showing on the ground against Liberty, part of the team's overall excellent rushing day, but was dreadful in pass protection. LT Kamren Stewart played only part of the game before exiting for presumably performance-related reasons (read: he was godawful). LG Tunde Fatukasi, brother of one-time Rutgers standout ILB Olakunle Fatukasi, has been rotating in and out of the lineup because he is also quite bad. Cedric Dunbar II is the rotational replacement for Fatukasi and didn't seem much better to me. The remainder of the IOL consists of C Alex Padgett and RG Nate Pabst, the latter of whom slid out to LT to spell Stewart against Liberty for part of the contest. Both guys were pretty up and down. Reserve G Bronson Warner is another player who can jump into the mix but I don't have many thoughts on him. RT Alex Wollschlaeger had just enough moments on the ground in run blocking to keep him above cyan status, but was also quite worrying in pass pro. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: some clips]

 

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Bowling Green is primarily a shotgun offense, but they've got more old-fashioned pro-style elements than most offenses you see this day:

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	26	6	24	84%
Under Center	3	6	2	16%

16% under center snaps is higher than the usual that I chart and they love themselves some 2 TE sets. If you want to call that hybrid, I will not protest. Play distribution by down is pretty balanced outside of passing on third down (more distance-related than anything else): 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	17	14
2nd	8	9
3rd	3	11
4th	2	2

Nothing terribly exciting to speak of here. 

Base set: BGSU operated almost exclusively out of either 11 or 12, so not nearly as exciting as a week ago. 11 personnel was marginally more common and it looked like this: 

Normal. 12 personnel: 

Also normal. They do on occasion flex one or both tight ends out to go in a four wide look, sometimes moving the RB out to look like five wide, but those formations were rare. The funkiest formation they showed in this game was this: 

Basketball on grass or MANBALL: BGSU had a pretty diverse run game against Liberty, running a few more gap concepts than zone concepts, but it was a more even balance than most teams show. Therefore, on the whole they fall in the MANBALL category, but it's not a decisive split. On the zone side, it was a lot of inside zone and split zones (didn't see much outside zone), while on the gap side counter is their bread and butter, but I saw power and briefly saw pin-and-pull as well. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Bowling Green was moving at a much slower pace against Liberty than UNLV was last week in their game I cahrted. The Falcons weren't at a total snail's pace, but I didn't see tempo being used at any point. Didn't appear to be part of their DNA. So, given the clock rules, it wouldn't shock me to see the Falcons totally slow it down and milk the clock for all it's worth against Michigan to try and keep the margin of this game within a reasonable distance.  

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Last year when I evaluated Connor Bazelak for Indiana, I gave him a 5 on our scale, nothing the following: 

(Bazelak's) not a fast enough or dangerous enough runner you need to put a spy on him, but in not doing so you are likely conceding that at some point, a scramble will hurt you. In total, I'd give him a 5. He's not terribly fast, and the QB run is not a feature of the offense, but Bazelak is a smart enough runner and designed plays that give him the ability to run pop up enough that it's on the scouting report. 

Most of these points still hold. Bazelak is not a plodder but he's not really a threatening runner. His lone scramble in this game was this: 

He did also run one true zone read, in addition. That said, the manner in which the offensive play-calling changed to be much more QB-run friendly when Camden Orth entered suggests that Loeffler is not a huge fan of Bazelak's legs and wants to feature them less. So, I will probably downgrade Bazelak to a 3 or 4 for this season. 

As for Orth, though, I would rate him as a 7. Not any higher because he doesn't have the athleticism of Denard, but that high because if Orth is on the field, the first thing the defense should be expecting is QB run. The only designed QB draws that Loeffler dialed up in this game were with Orth in the game: 

If you see Orth, you should know what's up. 

Dangerman: This week's Dangerman was a pretty easy selection, WR Odieu Hiliare. He was the star for BGSU's offense coming into the season after his strong 2022 campaign and though it was the running game that flashed more than the passing game for Bowling Green as a team against Liberty, Hiliare was still the offense's single-most impressive player. He had only four catches for 59 yards, but A) several of his catches were legit highlight reel and B) he was targeted nine times, showing the immense role Hiliare has in the passing game. 

Starting with his catches... hello: 

This next clip I have to show you the slow motion close-up because the live version doesn't allow you to appreciate the insanity of this one-handed catch on a mesh route: 

Hiliare had a touchdown too: 

The reason for Hiliare only having four catches on nine targets is that he's the designated guy the QB heaves it to whether he's open or not just before getting walloped by a defender: 

If Will Johnson plays, I expect to see him on Hiliare. If he doesn't, I'd be curious to watch the likes of Josh Wallace and others on him. 

HenneChart: Hoo boy. Bazelak is back and in an offense where he is asked to do more than just throw screens every play and it did not go well. Pressure was a factor yes, but this was real rough: 

BGSU vs. Liberty	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Connor Bazelak	-	5	-		4	3		--	1	3	4		39%	4

Bazelak's good throws were few and far between. This was probably his best: 

Unfortunately, he threw an interception on three consecutive passes in this game. Again, pressure was a factor. Don't get me wrong. But you just can't let that happen. Of his three interceptions, one was definitely because of pressure and circumstance: 

If Bazelak doesn't throw that ball, it's a safety. If he does, it's an INT at his own 25. Which option do you prefer? I don't know and went back and forth on it. I think I'd probably prefer safety but I'd have to break out an EPA chart. Unfortunately, he also was plainly inaccurate at times: 

Or making terrible reads and throwing into heavy coverage: 

Other balls made the catches much harder for receivers to make than it should have been, like the first circus catch of Hiliare I showed you. It was a distressing performance, among the very worst I've charted in 25-some games of doing this now. Like I mentioned at the top of this piece, Bazelak was much better against an FCS team in week two and even though he was supremely lackluster at Indiana, he wasn't this bad. So we can't assume he'll self-immolate against Michigan, but we can assume he won't be very good. 

We outlined in the Dilithium section that Orth is more of a running QB but can he throw?: 

BGSU vs. Liberty	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Camden Orth	1	2	1		1	3		1	--	1	1		57%	2

Not really. Small sample size, a bit better than Bazelak, but when it was time for the frantic 2 minute drill down two scores at the end of the game, Loeffler brought Bazelak back on the field. The Indiana transfer is the more trusted passer. Orth is better as a runner, occasionally drops a dime, but didn't look meaningfully better as a passer. This is a poor decision and an inaccurate ball: 

It was a no good, very bad day for Bowling Green quarterbacking against Liberty. 

 

Overview 

If you are a reader with significant contemporary Bowling Green football knowledge (you need an intervention to get better hobbies), the most surprising thing about looking at the box score against Liberty was how well the Falcons ran the football. The rushing attack has been a major weak spot for BGSU in the Loeffler era, something I wrote about in my The Enemy: RB piece a few weeks back: 

One hope for the Bowling Green Falcons this year is that with the RB room returning intact, their putrid rushing production may finally perk up. Last season the team ranked 123rd in rush yards per game (95.0 ypg), and they were 121st the year before. The high watermark in the Loeffler era is still his first season as coach, when the team was 77th at 147.0 ypg

Against Liberty, the rushing attack didn't just perk back up, it soared. BGSU ran it 31 times for 191 yards (6.2 YPC), sacks included. Meanwhile, the passing game, which has typically been the main pillar of the Falcon offense under Loeffler, floundered. A good chunk of that was the wretched quarterback play, but the rushing game was plainly excellent. Against Eastern Illinois, things returned back to some degree of normal, passing game exceptionally strong and rushing game not special (141 yards on 34 carries, 4.1 YPC). 

What do we make of this? I'm not sure exactly. I wrote in the personnel section that I didn't come away from my charting of the Liberty game wowed by the running backs and I still maintain that. The strong results they got on the ground were more a combination of RPS wins schemed up by the coaching staff and excellent blocking from the offensive line, at times a total reversal from the woeful pass blocking that same OL delivered. Here's an example of a well-blocked rushing play that got a chunk gain, showing off their affinity for gap plays: 

They used a variety of jet motion plays to success in this game, including this 4th & 1 play from under center that Michigan should 100% steal for short yardage/goal line situations: 

The QB draw I showed you in the Dilithium section built on their use of jet motion to concoct an RPS win, faking the jet sweep to clear the LBs out of the box and then running the QB right through. Another interesting thing to point out about the variation in rushing playcalling is that BGSU several times in this game ran the same play twice in a row, just flipped to the opposite side of the field. I can't recall another team that did that but they had surprising success with it. 

The option pitch was also a weapon that Loeffler pulled out to pick up yardage on the ground, using the formation I highlighted earlier: 

The RB in that play was Ta'ron Keith, who probably had the most impressive showing, but it was only on three total runs. Terion Stewart was the other back who stood out to me the most, the one carrying the ball in the well-blocked rushing play I showed you a few clips ago. But no one individually on this depth chart is a bellcow, or a name you should scribble down. 

Harold Fannin Jr., their primary TE, is a name that's probably worth circling. He's the guy open on the one good Bazelak throw I showed you. Here it is again: 

Running Fannin down the seam is their favorite way of using him, but they threw him some screens in this game as well. Fannin is certainly more threatening as a receiver than as a blocker, as I felt that Fannin and all the other TEs struggled in that element of the game. 

Speaking of struggling in blocking, for the moments that the OL had on the ground as run blockers, the showing in pass pro was brutal. LT Kamren Stewart had an all-time bad outing and eventually got yanked, though he was back out there against Eastern Illinois, so I presume we will see him again. On this one, Stewart barely got a hand on the EDGE he was supposed to be blocking: 

The constant pressure that Bazelak and Orth were under no doubt contributed to their poor showings in this game. You saw poor pass protection in the HenneChart clips as well, and it popped back up on that final two minute drill. Put into obvious passing down situations without the help of deception or the threat of the run to alleviate pressure, the BGSU OL was devoured like steaks thrown into a lion's den: 

Nate Pabst slid out to LT by this point and is beaten, LG Tunde Fatukasi is driven all the way back into Bazelak's lap, and the pocket swallows him up. On the four plays constituting that final drive, BGSU allowed sacks on two of them. I gave cyans to two starters and the 6th man, but a couple other players on this line narrowly avoided cyans and this is from a performance against LIBERTY. This OL against Michigan... they gonna die. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

Not all that much, truthfully. Michigan's defense ought to be vastly better than Bowling Green's offense. Hiliare and Fannin are intriguing Group of 5 pieces with upside to suggest they could be P5 players, but Michigan should be able to deal with them no problem, given that the rest of the team is devoid of weapons and the matchup in the trenches should be so lopsided. I'd expect a lot of sacks and if not, a lot of frantic throws just before a sack, some of which will probably lead to INTs. Loeffler may have some neat stuff ready to go that will hit Michigan here or there, but he may also act like UNLV and put it in the garage, saving it for games the Falcons have a legitimate chance of winning. I'd expect them to try and grind out first downs on the ground/throw quick passes and then milk as much clock as they can before leaving town with a loss that doesn't look as humiliating as it could.