The Illini? High up on the list? [Illinois Athletics]

The Enemy, Ranked 2022: Running Back Comment Count

Alex.Drain August 12th, 2022 at 4:20 PM

Previously: Quarterback

We return for the second edition of The Enemy, Ranked. After peering at QBs on Wednesday, we turn our attention to running back. Our ranking will be based on both the presence of a #1 option, but also the depth of options (ideally a solid #2). Grading on production, experience, talent and receiving ability, I have ranked all 12 Michigan opponents on the basis of their RB room. Let's get started with a new team in the cellar. 

 

12. Colorado State 

Not UCONN! The Rams find themselves last on the list with a RB room that, like many on the list, sees considerable turnover. Jay Norvell brought a back with him from Nevada, Avery Morrow, but he was RB3 in Reno a year ago and has just 25 career carries to his name. The pedigree, that of a 3* Who Dat recruit, isn't the most promising either. Morrow seems to be fighting for the job with A'Jon Vivens, who stuck around in Fort Collins through the coaching change. Vivens was also the third RB for his team last year, though with a bit more experience (90 carries in 2021). His stats last season were pretty middling, 3.6 YPC and the PFF grade mirrors that. Neither guy has a any experience being a lead back, neither guy has shown much at the NCAA level, and though they both add a small receiving element, it was pretty easy to put the Rams #12 on the list. 

 

[UCONN Athletics]

11. Connecticut 

The Huskies escape the cellar thanks to the return of Nathan Carter, one of the few bright spots amid another disastrous 1-11 UCONN season. Carter was the top running back for Connecticut last season, with 124 carries and 19 receptions leading the backfield and he did so with a respectable 4.62 yards per carry and a less-good 6.7 yards per reception. Carter figures to get the lion's share of the carries this fall for new coach Jim Mora Jr., while the backup RB position is more unknown, with ex-JUCO/Delaware transfer Will Knight seeming to be #2 right now. I put UCONN #11 because Carter gives them a higher floor than what CSU can offer, but even though his stats were better than some backs ranked ahead of this, a strength of schedule adjustment (some of Carter's best games came against stiff competition like UMass and Vandy) docks him and lands the team 11th. 

 

10. Rutgers

Believe it or not, we are finally freed from the memories of Isaih Pacheco outrunning Brad Hawkins in a game that feels like it happened 40 years ago. After a loooong B1G career, the wily Rutgers back departs the program and leaves behind him a sizable hole in the backfield. Right now it's looking like an RB-by-committee situation between three unsatisfactory options. Two returners who played a sizable role in 2021 are vying for the job, Kyle Monangai and Aaron Young. Both carried the ball ~60 times last season, with nearly identical stat lines, one at 3.8 YPC and one at 3.7 YPC, one with 5 TDs and one with 4 TDs. Both also caught the ball ~11 times last year, and both went for ~7 yards per reception. Their PFF grades were very similar too, so I'm starting to think Greg Schiano might have just cloned Monangai and named the other "Aaron Young".

Neither guy projects as much of an impact player on a team that struggles to run the football behind a very poor offensive line, so if there is a hope to have a big time back, it might need to come from 3* RS FR Al-Shadee Salaam. We don't know that much about him and he wasn't a particularly prized recruit, but perhaps Salaam is ready to be the breakout player in Piscataway for 2022. But based on the information we know now, Rutgers was pretty clearly last among B1G opponents due to the lack of a returning RB1 and the poor stats and running environment surrounding the returners. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More transfers and some good backs]

 

Shaun Shivers is moving north [Auburn Athletics]

9. Indiana

After a disastrous 2021 season offensively, Tom Allen decided to reshuffle his offensive coaching staff and brought in new OC Walt Bell, who in turn chased off most of Mike Hart's old RBs. The replacement: small and fast RBs who are more receivers than running backs, specializing in running screens and getting YAC. These sorts of players had to be fished out of the portal and they got two of 'em, Auburn's Shaun Shivers and UNC's Josh Henderson. Shivers is a good encapsulation of this, a player who had more receptions than carries last season for the Tigers as RB3 on the depth chart. He has never ran the ball more than 70 times in a season in his career, but he does boast a cool 5.1 YPC mark for his career. Henderson has an identical career clip but has just 41 career carries over three seasons in Chapel Hill, so neither guy boasts all that much experience. Shivers figures to be the bigger receiver of the two, but both will be taking on much larger roles than they've ever had before. There's higher upside overall than Rutgers, given that both guys are going to get bumps in usage and could bust out in a system that suits their strengths, but I think #9 is appropriate given the lack of experience in lead roles. 

 

8. Iowa 

The Hawkeyes lose their RB1 from a year ago, poor Tyler Goodson, who was saddled with far too much responsibility and ridden into the dirt by Kirk Ferentz and his incompetent offensive coordinating son. Goodson carried the ball 256 times in 13 games last year (!), while also finishing second on the team in receptions with 31. His number of carries was almost double what all the other RBs did combined and the backbreaking workload, as well as the strain of running behind a poor offensive line, lowered Goodson's statistical output. Now he departs and the Hawkeyes need to fill a void on their team. 

Gavin Williams was the second-most used back last season, carrying it 65 times for 305 yards, 4.7 YPC. He seemed okay in the opportunities he got. Leshon Williams would seem to be the second option in the backfield after getting 21 carries last season for only 3.3 YPC. Goodson sat out the Citrus Bowl against Kentucky, so we got a glimpse into what the Williams & Williams backfield will look like. It was ... okay. Neither did much of anything terribly flashy (long of 19 yards and 0 TDs), but Gavin Williams did finish with pretty good counting numbers, which is a good sign. But is he ready for 100+ more carries than he's ever gotten before? That's the unknown, and it's enough to make me slot Iowa in at #8. 

 

Rahmir Johnson hurt Michigan last year [Patrick Barron]

7. Nebraska 

Big Red is the team on this list that has the most generic backfield. Sure, Iowa has that too, but Nebraska ranks ahead of them because their "just guys" are more experienced at being vanilla bland. The Huskers had a bit of a clown car RB room last season, with four players getting 30+ carries and no one getting more than 120. Markese Stepp is out the door, but the other three, Rahmir JohnsonGabe Ervin Jr., and Jacquez Yant are all back. Yant may well be the most interesting, as he tore up Northwestern in Nebraska's lone B1G win of 2021 (127 yards on 13 carries!) but was mostly a persona non grata the rest of the season, appearing in only 5 other games. Johnson was the lead back of the three last year, with a non-Martinez team high of 112 carries for a meh 4.4 YPC, but he offers a receiving component that the other two don't, which Michigan may remember from the wheel route he ran for a TD in last year's contest. Ervin is a player about which I have nothing to say other than he finished with a subpar statistical profile compared to the other two. 

#7 seemed appropriate for Nebraska because they return a lot of production but none of that production was particularly good. The three players coming back all have some reasons for optimism (what if Yant replicates NW? what if Johnson becomes Nebraska Christian McCaffrey?) but also plenty of evidence from last season why that won't happen. They have a higher floor than teams like Iowa and Indiana, who are promoting newbies to larger roles or running new systems, but none of Nebraska's backs can be classified as good, so they fit in here. 

 

6. Hawaii 

A non-conference opponent up high! Let me introduce you to Dedrick Parson, the returning lead back for the Rainbow Warriors. He carried the ball 117 times for 618 yards (5.3 YPC) with 8 TDs, in addition to 28 catches for 279 yards (10.0 yards per reception) and one score. This was a performance so stellar it allowed Parson to consolidate his control of the RB room and push competitor Dae Dae Hunter to the portal. Parson received an 88.4 rushing PFF grade, ranking among the top 30 backs in college football last season and is now getting some preseason All-MWC hype. He's docked a bit by virtue of strength of schedule compared to the B1G backs on the schedule, but Parson's presence in the backfield for the 'Bows gives them a very respectable ranking at this positional group. 

 

If you look closely, Colby McDonald is buried in there [Paul Sherman]

5. Maryland 

Tayon Fleet-Davis departs for the Terps, leaving them with a bit of a hole in the backfield, but there are some quality options to replace him. Colby McDonald struggled as a blocker and is not remotely the same level of receiver as Fleet-Davis, but his rushing numbers were quite strong, carrying it 60 times for over 5 YPC. He is joined by former walk-on returner Challen Faamatau, who flashed a bit more as a receiver than McDonald, while also being respectable on the ground. Finally there's RS Fr Roman Hemby, a pretty anonymous recruit who showed up with a solid effort in the Pinstripe Bowl against Virginia Tech and should be ready to take a step forward. 

I was a bit surprised to be ranking Maryland as high as I am, but this is another article where there's a bit of a gap, in this case between the Terps at #5 and MSU at #4. Though Maryland's backs didn't make a huge impression on me last year, when you look at the numbers, they aren't far off from that of Parson at Hawaii, but Maryland is playing a harder schedule (and it's not like their RBs get any help from the OL). The PFF grades, especially for McDonald, justify their spot here on the list, and while replacing Fleet-Davis is a hurdle, I am now comfortable with MD at #5. 

 

4. Michigan State 

That Kenneth Walker III guy was pretty good, huh? The Spartans lost one of the best running backs in program history and decided to replace him the same way they found him, by going fishing in the portal. This offseason Mel Tucker has reeled in Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard, planning to see which of these two dogs wants the bone the most. Berger was a former top 150 recruit of Wisconsin out of New Jersey who we all labeled the next Jonathan Taylor but things did not unfold that way. Berger's stats in 2020 made him near the top of this list a year ago, but he had a disappointing beginning to 2021 and then a falling out with the team's coaching staff led Berger to quit the team and enter the portal. Now at MSU, the talented RB gets a fresh start but will also need to prove that the flashes of success were not just part of the Wisconsin Rushing Factory. 

Broussard is more interesting to me. He played under Mel Tucker at Colorado (although he never saw the field in a regulation game while Tucker was there) and exploded the year after Tucker departed. In six games in 2020, Broussard torched the PAC-12 for 895 yards on 5.7 YPC with 5 TDs, good for 1st Team All-PAC 12 and PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors. But in a full season last year, he was unable to keep the hype train going. Still solid, Broussard's output and efficiency dropped considerably and he was slowed up by injuries. 

This RB room is fresh and unsettled but it is not without talent. I couldn't rank it any higher than #4 because you have new players fitting in with a new team and both have more to prove than the top three teams on this list, but there's certainly a chance the Spartans finish higher. If Broussard can replicate 2020, or Berger can deliver on the potential he showed as a recruit, I can see MSU having an excellent backfield. 'Tis the world when you deal in transfers. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

3. Penn State 

The Nittany Lions have this peculiar situation where the RBs are talented and quite good, but their rushing numbers are subpar because the offensive line is so poor. We talked about this on Wednesday in relation to PSU's pass protection, but their run blocking wasn't much better, which constrains the rushing output and makes life a whole lot harder on their backs. PSU entered last season with four different talented RBs and as expected, they couldn't all be fed. Former elite recruit Noah Cain exited through the portal after being beaten out by Keyvone Lee. I went back and re-watched a ton of PSU tape when I was writing their section for HTTV and Lee was one of the guys I came out of that most impressed with. His 4.9 YPC clip was 1.5 better than any other RB on the team to rush more than 50 times, and the eye test backed that up. Being a running back on Penn State's 2021 team required making something out of nothing and Lee was excellent at it. 

The other player they return is Devyn Ford, who featured more in 2019-2020 than in 2021, but has good career numbers. They also add a 5* freshman in Nicholas Singletary, so you can't say this RB room is without talent. They have a good #1 back, plenty of depth, and also elite upside in Singletary. The numbers may not always show it on the field, but the RB talent in State College is legit, and the returning production allows them to be slotted a nose ahead of MSU at #3 on the list. 

 

2. Illinois 

Bret Bielema took over Illinois and did exactly what you'd expect, turning them into a ground-and-pound, molasses-paced rushing machine. Trying to mimic the Wisconsin model means you have to have a workhorse back to churn out yards and Chase Brown is exactly that. Brown emerged as Illinois' star last season and he was one of the very best RBs in the conference, rushing 170 times for 1,005 yards (5.9 YPC) and 5 TD, while also catching 14 passes for over 10 yards a pop. The former WMU transfer is difficult to bring down and after a slow start to last season, became dominant by midyear. Brown's 33-carry, 223 yard performance against PSU was staggering and is a good reason why he's getting preseason All-B1G buzz after finishing with 3rd team honors last season. 

What cements Illinois' place near the top of the list is the presence of a quality reserve option too. Josh McCray, second on the team with 112 carries, returns as well. At 235 pounds, this burly bowling ball back is equally difficult to bring down and he rushed for 4.9 yards per carry himself, though without the receiving component that Brown also has. Year #2 of the Bielema era in Champaign may not be the prettiest, but the RBs are a strength of the team, and they deserve to be slotted right up at the top. 

 

1. Ohio State 

Second list, the second time OSU comes in at #1. Seems like their offense is gonna be pretty good again, eh? TreVeyon Henderson had a phenomenal freshman season for the Buckeyes. A year ago I predicted in this very column that Henderson would be the guy for the Bucks by midseason, and it didn't even take that long. The 5* rookie came in and stole the show right from the jump, running 183 times for 1,248 yards and 15 TDs, while also hauling in 27 catches for 312 yards and four more scores. His statistical output, like the whole OSU offense, was off the charts. The eye test backs it up, as Henderson's elite athleticism makes him a weapon who can turn every missed tackle into six points, with a sort of home run ability that few on this list have (how he finished with 6.8 YPC). Weighing in at 210 pounds, Henderson is also reasonably strong as well as fast, the sort of all-around horse who should be All-B1G again this season. I thought that Henderson didn't flash as much ability to make very good defenses miss tackles on his own as some elite backs, especially in The Game last November, but that doesn't shake my decision to rank OSU #1. 

That's in part because Miyan Williams is a heck of a player too. Williams ran 71 times for over 7 yards per carry and added in 3 TDs of his own. Williams isn't a dangerman type player at this juncture, but he would be starting for at least the first six teams on this list, and maybe even more. That's the depth you can get when you recruit like OSU does. The combination of good depth + an elite RB1 made the Buckeyes the top team on my opponent rankings. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Where Would Michigan Rank? 

After everyone roasted me in the comment section on Wednesday, I am bracing for impact *ducks*. In all seriousness, I think Michigan absolutely has a case for #1 on this list. I'm not going to say whether I would put them there, but they definitely have an argument if Blake Corum plays all 12 games with full health. Corum's YPC clip was the tiniest bit below Henderson's, but he A) played the back-half of the season with a nagging ankle and B) didn't play on a team with a video game passing offense to open up space. A fully healthy season from Corum would move him above Henderson firmly, unless Henderson makes a huge leap (which he could!).

As for the backups, I'll take Donovan Edwards above Illinois' backup, McCray, even if we haven't seen a ton from Edwards on the ground yet. The versatility Edwards adds as a receiver is special, the ultimate matchup nightmare, and he should be able to gain yards on the ground running behind this OL with ease. Would I put Edwards ahead of Miyan Williams? Not yet I don't think, Edwards has only 35 rushes to his name, but the 5* pedigree and raw athleticism means he could absolutely pass Williams. The development of a 3rd, short-yardage back is the big question, but there's no doubt Michigan is loaded at this position and deserves to be right there with the Buckeyes at the top of the list. 

Comments

outsidethebox

August 13th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^

Not according to the "experts" on this forum.

I believe last year's stellar RB room was, very much, about Mike Hart. The significant uptick came out of "nowhere" for a reason. I also believe that Coach Hart will coach around the loss of Haskins and mitigate the short-yardage concern. 

CaliforniaNobody

August 12th, 2022 at 10:59 PM ^

Starting to think CFB needs an OPS+ esque stat adjustment to factor in OSU/Bama types of schemes. OSU's stats are just absurd, to the point I'd adjust sliders if my NCAA team was doing that. I'm thinking minus 1.5 or 2 to YPC and minus 20 TDs plus 5 INTs for QBs. Look at the kid the 49ers drafted highly out of OSU who got rendered obsolete by some random 6th round rookie from Utah for a prime example.

njvictor

August 12th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^

I gotta say that Penn State’s ability to recruit RB talent has been impressive as of late given that they haven’t had a good RB since Saquon left in 2017 despite bringing in numerous 4 and 5 stars

MadMatt

August 13th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^

So, after reviewing two of these it seems to me Michigan is a close 2nd to OSU at QB (I think the odds are good either Cade or JJ will be better than Cade last year), and tied for first at RB (I'd add that Michigan has outstanding RB3 and RB4 options that make any injuries at the position less than disaster).

I see Michigan being a close 2nd at WR, tied or a clear leader at TE, and a clear leader at OL. [Sniff, sniff] I'm smelling an offense in the same league as OSU's Madden/pinball juggernaut from last season.

All that with caveats about the enormous variability of college football from season to season (e.g. our 2020 vs our 2021). But, it seems to me that one of the best offenses in the country is an expectation which is backed with dispassionate analysis.

TrueBlue2003

August 13th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^

I don't think Michigan's QBs are close to Stroud unless JJ makes a big leap. Stroud was WAY ahead of Cade last year.  Alex was definitely right about that (I think he was wrong that our QBs are behind Thompson and even with Clifford - they're well ahead of those guys).

And I don't know if they somehow lost all their OL and didn't replace them with highly rated guys but I doubt we're a clear leader at OL, but even if we're comparable on the line, then yes, we should have an insane offense.

cheesheadwolverine

August 13th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^

I knew UConn was bad, but I'm not sure I grasped how bad they were, because 1-11 doesn't even begin to capture it.  The one was a single-score home win over Yale, and the advanced stats say that was a sizable upset.  They lost by two touchdowns to UMass!  By ten at home to Holy Cross!

Blake Forum

August 13th, 2022 at 3:45 PM ^

Thanks for this, Alex. I may be biased, but I would rather have Corum and Edwards than any other duo in this league. Corum we know can be a workhorse stud with homerun speed, but Edwards actually has higher upside. I feel like people are quick to forget he was the top choice of Georgia, which produces as many top RBs as anyone. Here's hoping he reaches his potential this season

Fan from TTDS

August 14th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^

It will be interesting to see how much MI and OSU will be running and throwing the ball.  Without Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, you would think OSU would depend on the run more this year.  Seeing what CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. did in the Rose Bowl against Utah leads me to believe that the passing game will not have too much of a drop off from last season.  I think MI will be throwing a bit more this year with Ronnie Bell coming back and Haskins no longer here.  Evan Pryor at OSU will give Myan Williams a run for his money as the back up to Henderson.  I wouldn't be surprised if Evan wins the battle.