the "mom's retiring" leap [Patrick Barron]

Dudes Get Drafted 2021 Comment Count

Ace May 4th, 2021 at 12:00 PM

The NFL Draft is a nice weekend because no matter how the football team did the previous season, Michigan fans can be assured they'll see a Wolverine achieve a professional dream every single year since 1938, a streak unmatched by any school except USC. That run continued in last weekend's 2021 edition, though Michigan State's 80-year streak was snapped. Tragic.

Michigan had eight players drafted, tied for the fifth-most of any college with Florida—Alabama and (sigh) Ohio State had the most with ten, followed by Georgia and Notre Dame. Other Big Ten programs with at least three selections were Penn State (6), Iowa (4), Northwestern (3, including two first-rounders), and Wisconsin (3). That number is a bit misleading in terms of how much talent the Wolverines fielded last season, though:

Sorry, sorry, this was supposed to be fun. Let's take a look at where the former Wolverines were picked and the roles they project to play at the next level.

DE Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts, Round 1, 21st overall

This is why the draft is worth watching:

Paye was the second defensive end off the board in what's considered a down year for edge rushers. He joins a solid Indianapolis front four that could use some pass-rushing pop from strongside end, where he'll be in competition to start right away—as a first-round pick he'll get every opportunity to take hold of the job.

His disciplined run defense and high-level athleticism should translate right away, and the expectation is his pass-rushing production will improve with development (and not playing in front of M's 2020 secondary). He'll at least be a consistent rotation player.

No matter what, Paye's estimated $7.3 million signing bonus will afford his mom plenty of leisure time.

[Hit THE JUMP]

OL Jalen Mayfield, Atlanta Falcons, Round 3, 68th overall

Once considered a fringe first-round tackle prospect, Mayfield slipped to the fourth pick of the third round, likely because of an underwhelming pro day performance after his injury-shortened season. Kent Lee Platte's invaluable Relative Athletic Score rated Mayfield as a slightly below-average athlete at tackle based on his pro day numbers.

When projected to guard, however, Mayfield's size and athleticism combo become good by NFL standards. Despite not playing the position at Michigan, Mayfield was announced as a guard when selected by Atlanta.

Mayfield told the Falcons he's game to play any position on the line, which gives him a better chance of seeing the field. It looks like the plan is for him to start at right guard, the biggest hole on the line right now. He should be a strong pass protector at that spot while Atlanta sees if he develops into an option at tackle.

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans, Round 3, 89th overall

A running theme last weekend was that opting out of the 2020 season didn't appear to have a negative impact on draft position. Given the remarkably deep receiver class and his lack of statistical output in college, Collins did well going in the third round.

Houston certainly valued Collins, trading fourth- and fifth-round picks in 2021 and their 2022 fourth-rounder to move back into the third round and take him. They sent out approximately the value of a pick in the 68-72 range if you assume next year's pick lands in the middle of the fourth round; if it ends up at the top of the round, they traded the value of a late second-rounder. For the 89th pick. This is nothing against Collins: Houston is not a well-run organization.

While traditional wisdom says all but the most remarkable outlier wide receivers struggle in year one, that's changed over the last couple years as the NFL starts to look more like the Big 12 than ever before. The Texans don't have much at receiver beyond Brandin Cooks, who's a diminutive catch-and-run threat, a couple other slot-sized guys in Randall Cobb and Keke Coutee, and seventh-year journeyman Chris Conley. Collins has an opportunity to start on the outside right away if he's ready.

There's a chance he's one of the more productive rookie receivers in the class. There's also some potential for, well, not that. The status of Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson's season and career is one of major uncertainty in the midst of over 20 lawsuits accusing him of sexual misconduct. The Texans brought in experienced backup Tyrod Taylor this offseason and drafted Stanford QB Davis Mills with their first selection of the draft (which was in the third round, because, again, this is a bad organization). Meanwhile, the team's new coaching staff includes passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton. Hopefully "throw the damn ball to Nico" doesn't become a career-long lament.

CB Ambry Thomas, San Francisco 49ers, Round 3, 102nd overall

San Francisco nabbing Thomas with a supplemental pick in the third round received a mostly positive response. Thomas tested very well, running a 4.41 40, and measured in taller than I expected at a hair under six feet. The 49ers have followed the Seahawks model of pass defense recently and like physical cornerbacks as a result, so Thomas being a plus run defender and reliable tackler helped make the fit.

According to The Athletic's David Lombardi, the Niners are set in terms of starters at corner and in the slot but are in serious need of depth. After opting out of the 2020 season, Thomas will get some needed reps in practice before getting thrown into the most competitive division in the league.

LB Cam McGrone, New England Patriots, Round 5, 177th overall

Bill Belichick likes his Michigan defenders, selecting one for the third year in a row (Chase Winovich, Josh Uche). McGrone is still recuperating from his ACL tear and won't be asked to pick up the defense right away. When he's ready to see the field, he's got the profile of a plus special teams player, and the Patriots will look to develop him into a sideline-to-sideline middle linebacker. For now, there's a logjam of players in front of him on defense.

FB/TE Ben Mason, Baltimore Ravens, Round 5, 184th overall

A very Harbaugh pick. John's team used a draft pick on Mason even though they already have a Pro Bowl fullback on the roster in Patrick Ricard. Given most NFL teams don't even utilize one fullback, that'd normally be a death knell for Mason's chances of making the roster, but Baltimore loves versatile blocky/catchy types.

Ricard is 311 pounds, used to chip in on the Ravens defensive line, and saw an expanded role of about 30 snaps per game when blocking tight end Nick Boyle went down to injury last season. Again: Harbaugh team. Mason's ability to play H-back and willingness to line up anywhere gives him a decent shot to make the roster. Also, cutting him would make Thanksgiving awkward.

RB Chris Evans, Cincinnati Bengals, Round 6, 202nd overall

If you're wondering how Evans got drafted over more productive college players, here you go:

Could Michigan have given this guy the ball more? Perhaps.

Elite athleticism is worth a late-round flier, especially when paired with Evans' natural pass-catching ability, even if that was underutilized in college. He put it on full display at the Senior Bowl, which has some analysts saying he's a late-round steal. The Bengals got rid of longtime change-of-pace back Gio Bernard this offseason and starting RB Joe Mixon has struggled to stay healthy; while Evans is expected to make his early contributions on special teams, there may be backfield snaps available for him too.

LS Camaron Cheeseman, Washington Football Team, Round 6, 225th overall

This is going well:

Washington needed a long snapper. Cheeseman is a long snapper. Using a draft pick on a long snapper you don't keep on the roster is a good way to get fired. I suspect the career in dentistry is going to wait a little while.

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS

It's not easy to make a roster after going undrafted, though the added uncertainty with this year's class from the shortened COVID seasons, lack of a scouting combine, dearth of in-person workouts, and so on, could lead to more late-round cuts and UDFAs making teams. Here's where other Michigan players have signed:

  • TE Nick Eubanks, Dallas Cowboys
  • DL Carlo Kemp, Green Bay Packers

That's everyone. Remember, Michigan didn't have a large senior class last season.

Comments

Toasted Yosties

May 4th, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^

What’s the analysis of this? Are we getting guys drafted more to recruiting great talent or is our staff developing them? I’d guess if it were the latter, it would show up on the field. I get it, a couple of guys were injured, but do we treat the opt-outs the same way? It’s hard for me not to take that as a knock against the coaches. It’s also hard not read the underutilizing guys the NFL loves as the coaches not knowing how to use or recognizing the talent they have. Happy for the players, but this bums me out from a optimism about future wins perspective.

ERdocLSA2004

May 4th, 2021 at 5:18 PM ^

A running theme last weekend was that opting out of the 2020 season didn't appear to have a negative impact on draft position.

There is absolutely no empirical data that can prove this statement.  It might be true.  There’s just no possible way to prove this.