1/22/2019 – Michigan 59, Minnesota 57 – 18-1, 7-1 Big Ten

Last night game was the season in microcosm, although the parts weren't quite the right length. First: Michigan starts 3/20 from the field and looks generally appalling, like they did in sub-1 PPP outings against Norfolk State and Holy Cross. Michigan then gets it together, turning a nine-point deficit into a 13 point lead over the course of about 20 minutes. This is the bit where they nuke a couple of top 25 teams—we'll call that the 23-3 run—and outpace various others by double digits.

Then they decide that's enough offense for one game and/or season. Michigan does not score after getting to 57 with just under five minutes left. A Charles Matthews midrange jumper exactly one tenth of a second before the shot clock expires is naturally the rescue. In the grand tradition of our people, Matthews looks like this afterwards:

Charles Matthews talks buzzer beating shot to beat Minnesota https://t.co/48Kkhsbu2D

— WolverinesWire (@wolverineswire) January 23, 2019

A worthy addition to the Impassive Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman wing of our weird internet meme hall of fame.

But Matthews is not MAAR. MAAR was the This Is Fine dog as a swooping late-clock layup machine, a guy who put out fires with the expression of someone binging C-SPAN. In contrast, Matthews has one of the most expressive mugs in the recent history of Michigan basketball. Our Flickr page is littered with Matthews face:

[Patrick Barron]

When Matthews looks like MAAR it is not a way of being but a specific feeling in the moment, and one that a lot of people share. Michigan is scuffling. Back-to-back performances of 0.82 and 0.92 points per possession don't mean the end is near, but they are a worrying blip back towards mortality after this basketball team hacked its way out of Jay Wright's head fully-formed and bearing axes in November.

It's different, but familiar. January doldrums are nothing new for John Beilein's program. Usually they've been preceded by, you know, losses. So the scuffles are part and parcel of the thing, along with the ignition stage in February. This moment feels off because for the first time since Trey Burke's crew the only direction they can go is down.

The good part is that the defense shows no sign of going anywhere. The regression in two-point defense halted after Michigan regressed from their unsustainable start. Just two teams have hit a point per possession all year. Michigan only has to fix the one thing, and only enough to outpace teams in rock fights.

Actually fixing it… well. Someone poke Poole with the same stick they used at halftime on Brazdeikis. Michigan can't have efficient offensive performances without their high-upside scorers, uh, scoring.

[After THE JUMP: Teske is out of his mind.]

BULLETS

HAIL TESKETRON 6000. 15 points on 8 shot equivalents, three offensive rebounds, three blocked shots, and a completely different game when he was on the floor. No exaggeration to say he's been not only Michigan's most important but best player since January started. Teske has the best hands of any Michigan center I can remember. He not only catches the ball, he makes tough catches. Down low, on the run, alley-oops that are a bit off: doesn't matter.

Default autobench complaint: Teske averages 3.2 fouls per 40. He got autobenched early in this one and ended up playing 27 minutes after with just more two fouls.  There is no reason to take him out if he gets an early one. Beilein seems to have heard the autobench complaints and doubled down by creating the one-foul autobench, which nobody else does.

Isaiah Livers is a situational 5 at best. Ace grabbed this from Hoop Lens:

That opponent TO rate and 3P% rate are almost certainly unsustainable outliers; the offensive rebounding and 2PT D are not. Teske needs to be out there for as long as his endurance will permit. Sorry sorry I know this is never changing, it just drives me nuts.

Quit with the stepbacks. Michigan is utterly in love with stepback jumpers, especially when they get an awkward switch from the opposition. To me this is the main source of the offensive woes. The PNR game gets broken up and Michigan settles for way too many off the dribble stepbacks when Poole gets matched against a center or whoever. Even if you don't beat your guy clean off the dribble the chances are that you're going to draw help, and then put people in rotations.

Michigan has two guys who are not super quick but are very effective once they get downhill—Iggy and Matthews—and those guys are in gross slumps because too much of the offense is screwing around on the perimeter and not giving the slashers the edge a closeout provides.

Michigan did have a few off the dribble three attempts from screen action, which is not the same thing. A stepback off a switch engages no other players and is extremely static. The pull up off PNR action draws defenders, including the C, and should improve offensive rebounding opportunities; it also opens up other actions off the pick and roll. Brazdeikis got fouled twice on those because that action was way more difficult to defend.

Simpson continues to be binary from three. There's on and there's off and there's nothing else. 0/4 here. More worryingly, 0 assists. He could have had a couple on shots his teammates missed but not up to his usual standard.

[Campredon]

Thundering towards the rim. Michigan more or less won the battle to keep Minnesota off the line but even so I was frustrated by how frequently it seemed like Michigan would get run into by a Minnesota defender and a foul would be called for little or no reason. (On the other hand the charge-type substance Brazdeikis took was a very bad call.)

One item in particular stood out: Jordan Murphy would get the ball in the high post and attempt to blast his way to the rim by lowering his shoulder and crunching guys in the chest, particularly Livers. He got called for an offensive foul on his last attempt to do this. It probably was an offensive foul. So why did it not get called the first four times? Backing down a guy is one thing; Murphy was slamming into them. I can only imagine how many delicate pieces Brad Davison would have burst into if exposed to similar conduct.

Injuries ahead. A couple of personnel issues for teams coming up on the schedule:

• Indiana suspended backup point guard Devonte Green "indefinitely," and since Michigan plays Indiana next it seems likely he'll miss the rematch in Assembly Hall. C De'Ron Davis missed their game against Northwestern and continues to struggle with an  ankle issue. While he's played in five of the last seven IU games he's topped out at seven minutes in his five appearances, and Miller stated publicly that he shouldn't have put Davis on the floor against Maryland.
• Ohio State's Kyle Young is out with a stress fracture. Young is pretty low usage but does a lot of dunking on people's heads in about 20 MPG. He's shooting 77% on the season on 14% usage. OSU will either have to play smaller at the four or turn to FR Jaedon LeDee for Young's minutes.

Indiana is 0-5 in their last five; OSU is 0-4. Big Ten is biting those two schools harder than anyone else. IU's recent stretch has been particularly brutal: @ Michigan, @ Maryland, vs Nebraska, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern. Yikes.