huzzah [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Around The Horns: Livers Returns Comment Count

Ace July 21st, 2020 at 2:44 PM

The decision of Isaiah Livers to pull his name out of the NBA Draft provided Juwan Howard with a lot more than his leading scorer. It answered the penultimate question about Michigan's 2020-21 roster, leaving only Chaundee Brown's status uncertain while he awaits a ruling on his transfer waiver request.

Whether or not Brown's waiver is granted, Livers's return gives Michigan much-needed lineup flexibility and the ability to play multiple defensive styles. Add in his deadeye shooting and it's hard to overstate the importance of having him around for a senior season.

Before I dive into the details, let's take a look at the scholarship chart, which has added a few 2021 recruits since the last time I posted one:

The Scholarship Chart

I'm playing it jinx-safe and listing Brown as a sit-one, play-one transfer until a waiver is granted, if that comes to pass. If he's granted an immediate waiver, he'd play as a true senior in 2020-21 and the projected 2021-22 roster would have a third open scholarship.

Scholarship 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
1 A. Davis (R-Sr.) C. Brown (R-Sr.) F. Wagner (Sr.) Z. Jackson (Sr.)
2 M. Smith (R-Sr.) B. Johns (Sr.) Z. Jackson (Jr.) H. Dickinson (Sr.)
3 E. Brooks (Sr.) A. Nunez (Sr.) H. Dickinson (Jr.) T. Williams (Sr.)
4 I. Livers (Sr.) F. Wagner (Jr.) T. Williams (Jr.) J. Howard (Sr.)
5 C. Brown (transfer) Z. Jackson (So.) J. Howard (Jr.) I. Barnes (Jr.)
6 B. Johns (Jr.) H. Dickinson (So.) I. Barnes (So.) K. Bufkin (Jr.)
7 A. Nunez (Jr.) T. Williams (So.) K. Bufkin (So.) W. Tschetter (Jr.)
8 F. Wagner (So.) J. Howard (So.) W. Tschetter (So.)  
9 Z. Jackson (Fr.) I. Barnes (Fr.)    
10 H. Dickinson (Fr.) K. Bufkin (Fr.)    
11 T. Williams (Fr.) W. Tschetter (Fr.)    
12 J. Howard (Fr.)      
13 OPEN      

While Michigan has one open scholarship for this season, it'll be hard to fill unless new players hit the transfer market, which has run dry on potential Big Ten-level contributors. Recruiting has moved on to the class of 2021, as you can see by the lack of empty space in the 2021-22 column.

[Hit THE JUMP to see the impact Livers makes on M's rotation and scheme possibilities.]

Lineup Versatility

get used to seeing Johns in the post. [Campredon]

The positional flexibility Livers brings to the table opens up a lot more lineup options for Howard. Michigan can play with a lot more size in the backcourt—and also go smaller in the frontcourt—because of the additional manpower. Here's a look at a possible depth chart that doesn't include Brown, who'd likely play starter-level minutes at SG and SF. Projected starters are in bold, a player listed at a second position is in italics:

PG SG SF PF C
M. Smith F. Wagner I. Livers B. Johns H. Dickinson
E. Brooks E. Brooks F. Wagner I. Livers A. Davis
Z. Jackson Z. Jackson T. Williams T. Williams B. Johns
  A. Nunez A. Nunez J. Howard  

The order isn't meant to be gospel. There's a lot of players here that are capable of playing multiple positions and there are even more possibilities I could've listed—Franz Wagner can play PF, Mike Smith could be used as an off-ball scorer, and Livers has dabbled as a small-ball center, to name a few examples. We've even seen Austin Davis play some power forward. (We may not want to be in a position to need to see that again.)

The most important lineup option Livers helps unlock is sliding Brandon Johns to center. That was going to be difficult if Livers wasn't available to play power forward. After Colin Castleton's transfer and Isaiah Todd's defection to the G-League, however, it also looks necessary. Hunter Dickinson is very talented but he's a massive true freshman who's probably not working through a normal offseason conditioning program. Austin Davis limits the team's upside and underwent shoulder surgery at the end of April. Even if those two have best-case outcomes, college teams tend to need a third center.

After looking lost when he played center as a freshman, Johns appeared much more comfortable in his handful of minutes there last season under Howard's tutelage. Although it's a small sample and you'd expect some three-point regression, lineups with Johns at center performed well in 2019-20 and a lot of is was because of dominant rebounding (data via Hoop Lens):

While the defense wasn't good, that's the area I'd expect him to improve the most, and he also got thrown into some difficult situations—in particular, getting some of his first minutes playing drop coverage as a center in game action against Oregon and an en fuego Peyton Pritchard. We're again working with small samples, but the offensive numbers above were a huge improvement on his freshman stints at center, as were the rebounding numbers. Bad three-point luck and tougher competition this year masked what, on tape, looked like a defensive improvement—my main focus on that end is that opponents grabbed twice as many offensive boards when Johns was a freshman:

There'll be more on Johns at center in the next section.

One of Michigan's strengths is going to be their versatility. The projected starting lineup is huge aside from the point guard spot with above-average outside shooters (I strongly believe in Wagner's perimeter shot) at four positions, then a 7'1" dude with enough game that Duke wanted him. They can go small/skilled with a Smith-Brooks-Wagner-Livers-Johns lineup. There are a number of hilariously large lineups to play if you start to get creative with the "shooting guard" position and play initiators—if Wagner goes full Stauskas you can get wild.

This also gives Howard wiggle room with his freshmen. Johns being available at center takes a little pressure off Dickinson, the freshman they most need to be ready right away. Even if nobody outside of Dickinson can contribute early—and I expect important minutes from another multi-position threat, Terrance Williams— they can cut the rotation down to essentially seven players for their toughest and most important games. If Williams and Jackson are ready to ball, that rotation could be as big as ten, at least while Howard gets a handle on his preferred lineups.

And, again, this is all without adding Brown, who could very well provide 30 minutes per game as a bully-ball 2/3 if he gets his waiver. If you add him to the fray, Howard never needs to go to the small Smith-Brooks backcourt combo unless he wants to do so, Wagner gets to spend more time at his more natural small forward spot, and Johns is freed up to play even more time at center if needed.

Scheme Versatility

switchable. [Campredon]

The main reason Livers wasn't a lock to get drafted is that NBA teams want to see that he's—say it with me now—Not Just A Shooter™. He knows this, too.

However, injuries cost Livers 10 games last season and he played many more at less than 100 percent. He's completely healthy now, and was asked what he's looking to improve upon.

"I'm going to say ball-handling," said Livers. "That's something everyone knows that I'm capable of, and not something I've shown. I'm going to be a go-to guy, and going to have to figure out how to keep the ball alive. I have a tendency to pick the ball up. But that's going to be a factor in my game next year. That, and being a leader. I know I've been deemed a leader, but it's also something I've been working on in quarantine time.

Livers reached the Junior Teske Zone last year, posting a turnover rate so low (3.7% in Big Ten play!) that it's as much a concern about a player limiting their game as it is a good sign. Incidentally, Livers also had a minuscule assist rate—lower than Jon Teske's, even—and that'll need to rise without Zavier Simpson around to run most of the halfcourt offense.

Livers has the ability. His skill at hitting shorter midrange shots forces defenses to commit to him in an area that opens up passes to the center. This has been mostly theoretical so far in his career, which is why the GIF'd example I have is from last year's Saginaw Valley State game: 

Most teams aren't going to be this small and overmatched, nor will they be playing a 2-3 zone that's far from Syracuse-level, but roll with me here.

If Livers adds nothing more than solid passing in the high-low game, that'll greatly help M's offense. While I'm not expecting him to suddenly turn into a pick-and-roll creator, he can also attack more closeouts off the dribble. Drawing fouls should be a priority for Livers given he went 44-for-46 (not a typo!) at the line last season and he's got the size for absorbing plenty of contact at the rim in order to do so. The threat of his outside shot is going to open plenty of lanes to the basket. There should be more spacing without Simpson on the floor, too; opponents made driving difficult last year when X didn't have the ball because they could sink so far off him and Teske.

This is where the idea of Johns at center starts to get really interesting. A Smith-Wagner-Livers-Williams-Johns lineup, to take one example, maintains plenty of size across the board, shouldn't get killed on the glass, and lets you play five-out on offense because everyone is at least a passable spot-up shooter. Imagine how hard this would be to defend if Davis were a shooter drawing his defender to the perimeter:

 

While Davis does a great job of sealing his man, this is an even easier bucket if that man isn't there in the first place. You can see the potential for Johns as a screener in that play, too; that's a well-timed slip to the perimeter, which got his defender scrambling before Johns caught him flat-footed after the pump fake.

It gets even more intriguing if you can slide Brown into the lineup; as a 6'5", 225-pound senior who's at his best attacking the basket, he's going to be a difficult matchup for a lot of college wings/guards. These lineups won't leave much room for hiding poor defenders.

I also like their defensive upside. Michigan will be forced to play drop pick-and-roll coverage with Dickinson or Davis at center; that's ideal with the towering Dickinson, less so with the shorter, ground-oriented Davis. With Johns, however, they can move between drop coverage and switching across every position. Johns may be the small center option but at 6'8", 235, with above-average athleticism, he's far from overmatched in the post.

In fact, Howard didn't change his defensive approach a great deal when he tried using Johns at the five to help contain Oregon's Pritchard, a move that nearly won the game. When Oregon ran a high screen, Johns stayed in the paint, and Pritchard had a harder time dealing with his mobility and athleticism than the size of M's primary big men:

Even when Pritchard scored in the pick-and-roll, it came tough. Most of his baskets down the stretch were out of isolation plays against Simpson, which put Johns in a trickier spot of choosing when to help—his timing and instincts in that regard still need work. Having a mobile center also made it easier for the rest of the team to stay home on shooters; the Ducks went 0-for-1 from downtown when he was out there.

Meanwhile, Johns went nuts on the offensive glass and created more havoc, making him M's most effective center in that game by a longshot (Davis didn't play):

Yes, more small sample theater, but it's what we've got to work with for now. Johns gives Michigan the ability to play multiple defensive styles, something the other centers can't bring to the table, and he also opens up the floor on offense.

Johns doesn't need to be a full-time center, but for Michigan to make the most out of their roster, he needs to be playable there. I'm optimistic he gets there this season. Having Livers back will afford Howard a lot more flexibility to match up with opponents and adjust the rotation to accentuate the team's strengths.

Year Two for a head coach is usually the time when you start to them install the system they truly want to run instead of the one they had to utilize to ease the transition from the previous coach. Maybe the most important aspect of Livers's return is it'll give us a better read on Howard as a coach.

Comments

Gustavo Fring

July 21st, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^

Nice write-up.  Struggle to see a ton of lineups with Wagner at the 2 though; in particular the nominal starting lineup (I understand Ace caveated it) with Smith (undersized, moving up a level in athletic ability), Wagner (not a natural 2, ability to stick with quick guards was not great last year) and Dickinson (big, but again there are likely to be growing pains with technique and lateral quickness at least initially) is going to have some issues defensively.  

What am I saying?  Given some of the defensive issues we had last year and the losses we sustained, I don't see a world in which Eli Brooks isn't getting 30+ minutes per game.  He's our only proven perimeter defender and he will have to babysit lineups with Smith or Wagner in the backcourt.  I think the minutes will look something like this:

PG: Smith 30 Brooks 10

SG: Brooks 25 Wagner 15

SF: Wagner 20 Livers 20

PF: Livers 15 Johns 25

C: Dickinson 25 Johns 10 Davis 5

Whether or not Johns can play more at center likely depends on Terrence Williams being able to play minutes at the 3/4.  If Brown does transfer, I'll be curious to Franz's improvement as a playmaker; if he becomes a primary playmaker, it makes more sense to play Eli at the 1 than Smith, given Eli's superior defense and the fact that Franz's playmaking would Smith's somewhat redundant (yes he's a good shooter as well, but Eli is fine as catch and shoot as well).  

AC1997

July 21st, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^

I agree with you - Wagner's minutes at the 2 are likely a change of pace for a few minutes per game more than a starting lineup.  I'm higher on Smith than most and think he can be an average B10 PG who plays 25-30mpg.  I think that's the key to the ceiling this year.

Where I disagree with your minutes is Dickinson getting 25mpg.  That's a LOT for a center and a TON for a true freshman of that size.  Most centers struggle their first year and barely play if they play at all (Teske, Wagner, Morgan, Wilson, Donnal, Horford, Davis).  McGary was the last top-40 guy at the position and even he didn't play more than 21 minutes until the 22nd game of his career.  Ricky Doyle had to play a lot as a freshman out of necessity.  

I think Johns starts the season as the starter at center and gets most of his minutes there.  

Denard In Space

July 21st, 2020 at 9:01 PM ^

I can't imagine that Juwan will only give Davis 5mpg, especially after the drastic offensive improvement. The other thing that I think is important to consider is that Smith is coming from the Ivy League and while I think he will be okay, he also isn't getting an off-season to prepare.

My take on how it might break down:  

PG: Brooks 20 Jackson 10 Smith 10

SG: Wagner 15  Smith 15 Nunez 10

SF: Livers 15 Wagner 15 Nunez 5

PF: Johns 20 Livers 15 Williams 5 

C: Davis 20 Johns 10 Dickinson 10

Not that I would be happy with Nunez playing that much, but he played a lot of inexplicable minutes this past year. The thing that I totally agree with Ace about is that there is a ton of versatility here. You could easily bump Franz to playing primarily at the 3 and 4 and still be able to put together playable lineups with specific uses. Could be a really fun and interesting team to watch. 

Michigan4Life

July 21st, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^

I think the starting lineup to begin the season will be:

PG: Smith

SG: Brooks

SF: Wagner

PF: Livers

C: Davis 

Brooks and Davis have experience edge and I see Brooks playing a lot of minutes at SG due to his defense. Davis will rotate between Dickinson and Johns at C with Johns rotating with Livers at PF as well. 

Michigan4Life

July 22nd, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^

That is true. I forgot about Davis shoulder surgery. We'll likely going to see a heavy rotation between Davis/Dickinson/Johns at C but I bet Juwan will use Johns at C sparingly and may use it when they really need to finish off the team kinda like Warriors Death Lineup with Draymond at C.

lsjtre

July 21st, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^

I honestly figured Livers would stay in the NBA draft with the way things have been going this offseason between commits and transfers and then I saw the tweet and...YEEEEEEEESSSSSS!!

AC1997

July 21st, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^

Most of the projections I've done assumed Brown was eligible, but I like Ace's anti-jinx approach.  So assuming he doesn't play, this is where I'm at:

  1. Smith (28), Brooks (8), Jackson (<5...but a few shifts here and there)
  2. Brooks (25), Wagner (15)
  3. Wagner (18), Livers (18), Nunez (<5...but Howard seems to like him)
  4. Livers (15), Johns (15), Williams (10)
  5. Johns (10), Dickinson (18), Davis (12)

As much as I think Brown would be awesome as the team leader the following year, you can see how his eligibility this season truly unlocks the versatility that Ace alludes to.  It shortens the bench, it eases the pressure on Smith/Dickinson, etc.  

  1. Smith (28), Brooks (12)
  2. Brooks (20), Wagner (10), Brown (10)
  3. Wagner (20), Brown (10), Livers (10)
  4. Livers (20), Brown (10), Johns (10)
  5. Johns (15), Dickinson (15), Davis (10)

While Williams, Jackson, and Nunez will still get spot minutes but no longer are part of the major rotation.

4th phase

July 21st, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^

Your first scenario is basically what I was going to say. Lots of comments have mentioned it but the absence of Eli Brooks in this post is very odd. I mean this lineup is thrown out there “Smith-Wagner-Livers-Williams-Johns” for a scenario where Johns is at the 5....I’m willing to bet that lineup gets less than 5 min all season. When the much more obvious is the one you propose.

Brooks is starting everyone, so accept that now. The best 4 players are Livers, Wagner, Brooks, Johns and those 4 are starting. You go with Smith at pg, and Johns lack of size at the 5 is mitigated by the fact everyone can shoot and on defense you have Franz and Livers to help rebound.
 

Also Dickenson is not starting. Freshman centers in the big ten are rare and not ideal and I’m expecting Dickenson to have a really high foul rate. He’s going to get his minutes but likely in the 8 to 16 range, and only when Juwan likes the matchup. Same with Davis, he’s going to get minutes but he’s a pick your spots type role player who is also foul prone and if you’re playing him more than 16 min things are going wrong. It doesn’t matter because center will be a 3 way platoon. 
 

And then if Brown is eligible you go Brooks-Brown-Wagner-Livers-Johns. Mgoblog keeps pushing Franz at the 2, and too many people sleeping on Eli. 

Trader Jack

July 21st, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^

Eli Brooks averaged 32 minutes per game last year and was arguably the best perimeter defender on the team. I’d be very surprised if he’s not in the starting lineup. 

Bambi

July 21st, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^

I know it's just one potential depth chart, but Brooks not starting seems just seems so out of this world unlikely to me especially one that doesn't have Brown on it.

Brooks played 76.6% of minutes last year, only being Z, and now we have even fewer proven commodities at the guard spots. Brooks is a proven B1G quality guard and especially if Brown isn't eligible our best perimeter defender. 

Building off that a lineup with Smith, Franz and Livers at the 1-3, based on what we've seen from each guy as of now, would be a disaster defensively. Smith's best case scenario is his offense outweighs bad defense, and neither Franz nor Livers have shown to be quality defenders when defending smaller, quicker players (the Wisconsin game comes to mind when Brooks was injured). Franz especially has some upside and can be better there, and I know even in this scenario Brooks would be a major bench player, but I would put large amounts of money that Brooks is the starting 2 his entire senior year.

TrueBlue2003

July 21st, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^

"without Zavier Simpson around to run most of the halfcourt offense"...sigh.  That just made me a bit sad.  First season in a long time without him as the rock.  Shame we didn't get to see his senior year tournaments.  One of the better Michigan careers ever.  But turning the page...

The starting lineup is going to be (assuming no Brown):

PG: Smith

SG: Brooks (will play 35 min / game)

SF: Wagner (will play 35 min / game)

PF: Livers (will play 35 min / game)

C: Johns

I'm glad Ace spent a lot of time talking about Johns at center because that's where he's best suited (similar to DJ Wilson being a better fit at center at the college level), especially when you want Wagner and Livers to get almost all the minutes at the 3 and 4.

Small sample size but Johns problem last year was that he didn't help aggressively enough.  That's why the 2pt% against is high but the O rebs against are low (too low) from his time there last year.  He was sticking to his man too closely.  He should have a much better balance with that this coming year.

Davis will begin the year backing up Johns and playing more minutes against bruising centers. Dickinson should pass Davis for the backup role during the season but there's almost no way he sniffs the starting spot.  Big, non-athletic centers are going to have a very hard time playing meaningful minutes as freshmen.  And I think the presence of Johns and Davis actually gives Dickinson some time to develop.  The bigger issue by far is at guard...

Getting Brown eligible will be huge in case Smith isn't up to the task of big minutes at PG.  Then they'd be able to slide Brooks down for most of the PG mins.  This is now the time when I shake my head and wonder why on earth DeJulius transferred. 

If Brown isn't eligible and Smith isn't a full time Big Ten PG (a real possibility), I think the odds that Williams can give some minutes on the wing to allow Wagner to slide to the SG spot are higher than Dickinson being ready at center.

Detroit Dan

July 21st, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^

I like Brooks -- coming off the bench.  I don't want to even consider a scenario where Chaundee Brown isn't playing this year.  I'm not afraid of the jinx.  Anyway, Ace and others here have covered the possibility that Brown can't play.

Looking at the offensive stats (hey, it's summer in semi-lockdown), Brown seems better than Brooks.

BROWN                           BROOKS

6-5, 220lb                         6-1, 185lb

ACC                                 B1G

28.2 minutes PG              32.0 minutes PG

12.1 PTS                          10.6

51/32/83                           46/36/73

6.5 RB                              3.7 RB

1.4 AST                            2.0 AST

 

So I'd think Brown would start over Brooks at shooting guard. 

At point guard, Smith would seem to have the advantage over Brooks, with over twice as many assists (4.5 - 2.0) and points (22.8 - 10.6) per game, while shooting 47/34/81, albeit in a lesser conference.

But I don't know defensively.  Are there any relevant defensive stats anywhere?

AC1997

July 22nd, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^

You make a great point and if Brown is eligible I think he's easily in that 25-30mpg range.  One problem with your argument, however, is that he isn't a shooting guard.  Like Wagner, he can play there at times and can probably guard some 2s in the league.  However, he doesn't dribble much, he doesn't initiate offense, he hasn't run the pick-and-roll, he isn't an outside shooter, and he doesn't set up teammates a lot.  Brown is a lot closer to who Livers and Wagner are than he is Brooks.  

I think Brooks is starting and playing 32-35mpg.  If Smith is good, then most of Brooks time will be at the 2.  If Smith struggles, then it will be at the 1.  Either way, I think it is more likely that Brown is your super-sub that comes off the bench at the 2-3-4 spots than it is Eli comes off the bench.

Ultimately it doesn't matter.  Even if Smith is great (30mpg) and Brown is eligible, you have to find about 20 minutes at SG between Wagner and Brown.  

mgoDAB

July 21st, 2020 at 9:55 PM ^

It seems to me the 5 spot could be largely matchup dependent. I could easily see Johns putting up 20 mpg against most Big Ten centers. But against the more traditional center types like Cockburn, Reuvers, Jackson-Davis, and Trevion Williams it’ll be good to have a space-eating rim-protecting 7’1” Dickinson ready to go. Even then, though, Johns seems physical enough and solid rebounder to stack up to those guys. 

My Name is LEGIONS

July 21st, 2020 at 10:55 PM ^

My two cents.

Why does it seem our players never get a quicker transfer eligibility approval?  Brown should be eligible by now. Maybe because I see JT Daniels in football get approved in a blink.

Dickinson might be starting by end of season. Saw video of him playing with Garza and he totally belonged. 

Brooks still gets no love, I don't get it.  Sometimes he was best player on court last year and now with Simpson gone it'll be more often. 

MaizeBlueA2

July 21st, 2020 at 11:47 PM ^

C: Dickenson (23)

F: Livers (33)

G/F: Wagner (31)

G/F: Brown (26)

G: Brooks (29)

...Johns (19) is your first sub in the post, Smith (18) first sub at guard.

...Davis (11) is second sub in the post, Jackson (10) is second sub at guard.

9 man rotation is solid. 

That is your rotation. Nunez gets minimal minutes as a sub on the wing, but due to all of the position flexibility, that's not necessary.