Podcast discussion on the conference
I was interested in bringing this up anyway but the segment on the roundtable podcast was a good ice-breaker. What kind of things do you expect of the conference this season?
I was surprised when I look at Wisconsin's schedule. While it's not as tough as Michigan's, they do get five of what seem to be their toughest games are on the road: Iowa (a Kinnick at night situation doesn't seem to be too far off), Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State and Purdue (the last two are back to back). While that means their home slate is pretty light (their third crossover is Rutgers, at home), it does mean their margin of error is slightly smaller than in previous seasons.
One other striking thing: The number of tough back-to backs: State goes to Happy Valley the week before Michigan at home, PSU has @Michigan and home to Wisconsin (after they already play OSU and MSU back to back, though they have an off week between and both at home). Perhaps unsurprisingly, OSU largely avoids this. Their toughest back to back is probably home to Nebraska and @MSU. Michigan probably has the toughest stretch, Home to Wisconsin, @MSU, Bye, Home to PSU.
April 20th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
MSU will lose 4-5 games, depending how that week 2 matchup @ Arizona State goes.
I dont find ASU all that frightening for anyone despite changing their macot to Herm Edwards
won an OOC game at Arizona State. Never.
Just this century, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois have gone out there for OOC games. They all lost. Many of those B1G teams were pretty good and ranked.
Nebraska wasn't in the B1G in 1996, of course, but they infamously lost a September game in the desert to end their reign as the #1 team in America.
It is going to be a challenging game for Michigan State. It's a long way to Arizona and given the date of September 8th, it will be very hot (even if it's a night game).
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/confres.pl?start=1900&end=2…
Where Wisconsin lost in dubious circumstances in 2012 and Jen Beilema posted #Karma right after.
then the B1G streak should continue.
lewerke is an effective qb. they have returning production on O (though much thinner at RB) and their D will be solid not great.
probably another 9+ win season for them
I'm mainly looking at their three game stretch of @ PSU, vs. UM, and vs. Purdue. I think they could lose all three. Purdue would be my upset pick. OSU will beat them. Even @ Nebraska at the end of the year could be tough for them.
I haven't put too much analysis into their schedule. I just want them to lose.
Oh absolutely. But they do have a good defense (perhaps not as good as the numbers said last year, but certianly a top-15 unit), and on offense they can throw with Felton. But they were worse running the ball than all but a couple of teams in the country, and when your not-super-mobile QB is your second-leading rusher, that's not a great base to work from.
Again, they're fine. But I kept pointing this out last year that they wen 6-1 in 1-score games, which isn't sustainable. It just isn't; history has shown that winning 1-score games consistently isn't a "skill" that a team can cultivate. And so even going 4-3 in those games last year totally changes people's read on that year, and so I'm of the belief that they'll be record-wise worse this year just because of some reversion.
If Lewerke gets hurt, yes, they’d be in trouble, but that goes for just about any team losing its starter (save Bama and, unfortunately, OSU).
Where?
April 20th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Conference opener for both, and whoever wins that one becomes the immediate favorite to win the West. Wisconsin doesn't get the benefit of being at home this year.
If Iowa wins that game, the rest of their schedule only features 2 road games against teams that made a Bowl in 2017 (PSU and Purdue). They miss all of OSU, U-M and MSU. They'd only be 1-0, of course, but they'd already have the tie-breaker against Wisconsin and they'd be fairly well-positioned.
OSU @ PSU on September 29. That game is early too. If OSU wins that one they're in a great spot. As you said, they're unique among East teams in terms of not having a challenging back-to-back. Their cross-overs are also not overly difficult.
rumor has it that Kirk is trying to petition the B1G/NCAA to have all of their games be at Kinnick at night....including CFP and Championship games, so he can go 15-0 for his final hurrah, then retire, and leave the team in the hands of one of his many sons who are on staff....
8-5 and the Outback/Gator/Music City Bowl is usually the safe bet for the Hawkeyes.
I think this could be the year they have their patented "once every 4-5 years" type season and get to 10 and win the west. Nate Stanley is pretty good, IMO, and they infrequently get such a favorable schedule (no U-M/OSU/MSU and Wisconsin at home).
And, yes, Iowa will be the same way in 2118 when Brian Ferentz's yet-unborn great-grandson is coaching in IC.
just because they have been grown in a vat from his DNA doesn't technically make them his "sons".
just because they have been grown in a vat from his DNA doesn't technically make them his "sons".
I think the receiving corps as a whole is the most important. But last year, the leading receiver on the year was Sean McKeon (!) with 31 catches (!!) for 301 yards (!!!). The yardage leader was Grant Perry with 307 yards (!!!!) on 25 catches, and Perry barely contributed the latter half of the year.
On the year the receivers had 145 catches total; unless you are running the triple option, you can't survive passing so poorly. And at some point, it's not the 3 guys throwing the ball as much as the half-dozen players who can't seem to get open consistently or hold onto the ball when it gets to them.
If Michigan gets competent performance from their receivers this year, they win 10+ games and we are all excited regardless of who lines up under center. Otherwise, all we're going to see is Patterson lr Peters scrambling around and throwing into coverage/not anywhere close to their receivers.
in the conference, the Old Oaken Bucket game between the Indiana schools. For whatever reason, Wisconsin is simply on our schedule a lot in this immediate scheduling period after missing the entire Hoke era and Michigan in 2015.
You know, one wonders what this rivalry would be called if Samuel Woodworth had never written a certain poem about his fond recollections of a bucket.
Actually, it seems like a perfect backdrop for the Indiana-Purdue rivalry, the more I think about it now.
@N'W and @Purdue are hardly that difficult of assignments, even with Purdue improving. If those are their 5th and 4th toughest games, I fully expect Wisconsin to coast to 10 wins again.
Just for the hell of it, I want to throw this in, for anybody in Michigan's Athletic Department who is reading this.
Dear Administrators:
You need to switch us back to a schedule where we play Michigan State at home in even-numbered years (with Ohio State, as is, playing us in Michigan Stadium in odd-numbered years). I don't know how we got screwed on that to begin with. We all HATE it!
Nobody from the Department has ever explained it adequately. I stongly suspect that certain administrators at both Michigan and Michigan State liked the idea of being able to raise ticket prices in the 'every-other-year' that they could claim a home-game schedule featuring both of their big-name rivals. Michigan is doing that, in odd-numbered years. MSU, to the extent that they can, is doing it, in even-numbered years.* If that is incorrect, and if anybody can explain how this scheduling offense happened in a clearer and more believable way, by all means do it. It better be a really great explanation.
Sincerly,
Pissed Off Season Ticket Holder
*MSU's 2016 price-rise was the first since 2016; MSU secondary-market ticket prices apart from Michigan and OSU have fallen steeply in recent years.