Vegas says Michigan -3 over Houston, but...
Kenpom says Michigan +2, at least according to the simulator I use. I watched Houston last night, and that Gray kid is legit. I know nothing about SDSU, but unless their defense is really bad, someone is going to need a great job on D on him for us to win this game. I think we pull it out late in a close one, something like 72-69...
EDIT: Someone correctly pointed out below that we are actually 2 point faves on KenPom. I was looking at his simulator as an away game, not a neutral site game. My bad, homies. Regardless, it's gonna be close either way...
March 16th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
Houston, you have a problem.
UM 82
Houston 75
March 16th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
would be welcome after last night as long as M is on top.
A low scoring game would also be welcome if M was on top.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
It felt really nice
March 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Engaged in a little combat against the Purple Headed Warrior, did we?
March 16th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
The kid is good, but clearly has no friends. Because if he did, those friends would have mercilessly mocked him by now, until he changed his hairstyle. :-)
March 16th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
not kidding.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
by a millennial with a man-bun....
March 16th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
as long as the refs are calling bullshit fouls on our guards like last night.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
As a Cincy fan, we played Houston 3 times this year. I'm too lazy to look up the actual stats, but he struggled against a strong defense. I haven't watched Michigan as much this year as I have UC, but my sense is that Michigan's D is just as well suited to stopping Gray as UC's is--perhaps even moreso since UC doesn't have a hyperactive Zavier Simpson-style guard to pressure the ball quite as aggressively.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
Gray's stats against Cincy this year:
Game 1: 9 pts on 4-15 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 6 assists and 6 boards.
Game 2: 13 pts on 3-13 shooting, 1-7 from 3, 4 assists and 1 board (with 4 turnovers)
Game 3: 17 points on 6-22 shooting, 2-9 from 3, 3 assists and 5 boards (with 4 turnovers)
i can't trust a liar.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Not to mention his teammates don't seem to bring all that much to the table. If we can lockdown manbun we will win hands down.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
The statistics from last night's game are insane. He had a 50% usage rate with zero assists. Literally, half of Houston's possessions ended with him doing something -- shooting (from the field or the line) or turning the ball over. That's how you score 39 points and win a game 67-65.
If Michigan can shut him down, they'll win handily. It not, it's going to go down to the wire.
still don't know why they didn't trap manbun with 8 sec to go and make him pass the ball. they would have struggled to get a decent shot off had they done that.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
I went back to school and graduated with an IT degree in 2014. I enjoyed my time on that campus.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
Nope, my Dad went there during the Oscar years, so I grew up a UC basketball fan.
now that guy was a BALLER.
Well M didn't have a hyperactive guard to pressure the ball aggressively much either last night!
The refs are always a concern for a team that relies on D. Better we actually make some shots!!!
March 16th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
hmmmm, Michigan was up 18 on Purdue at that time. I Like Michigan over Houston by at least 8. Go Blue
March 16th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
Kenpom says we are 2 point favorites, not underdogs.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Yes, and Vegas says we are three-point favorites, because Michigan bettors bet more than Houston bettors.
If point spreads were all about the size of the fanbase involved, we'd be favored in 99% of our games.
Actually, most people who bet on any given game have no rooting interest for either team.
+1 for correcting a mindless piece of, upon reflection, obviously incorrect information I had absorbed from years of reading comments on MGoBlog about how the size of the gambling Michigan fanbase swings betting lines.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
Where are you looking? I'd love to be wrong here...
I looked at "Game Predict"...
EDIT: Ugh, you're right. I had it as a road game instead of a neutral game. Thanks for catching that...
March 16th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
When I hear "man bun" this is what I picture...
March 16th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
Vegas lines adjust to match (or are set to anticipate) the public's betting, so I think it makes a lot of sense that Michgan bettors are more favorable than KenPom.
After watching Montana's guards drive for way too many layups yesterday, I'm leaning more toward KenPom than Vegas at this point. Especially if we have the same refs calling it tight and putting Z out of the game.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
They drove the lane against Simmons. As soon as Simpson went back in the game we controlled their guards easily.
March 16th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
There is almost no chance that the same referees will work tomorrow's game as worked last night's.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
My question is who do we put on Gray? I'm not all that worried about it since the question stems more of the fact that I think we have a few guys that would do a great job. I assume we start with Zavier on him due to his quickness and great defense, but I also think having MAAR or even Matthews on him a bit due to their length and great contests could be beneficial and could throw him off his game a bit. I think Zavier will get most of the minutes on him though. Gray is pretty turnover prone, so I like a guy like Zavier there to force those turnovers.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
March 16th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Yes, and he would need to be well-rested, having sat most of the first half of the previous game.
Nice job by Simmons and Brooks last night, closing out the first half after 0-10.
Simmons had a very nice and timely offensive game for us last night. But holy shit, he plays gawd-awful defense. I totally see why he was behind Simpson the entire year now. he could not come close to staying in front of their guards.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^
I think we come out and curb stomp them tomorrow night. Let Gray get his points and shut everyone else down.
and let the rest of them try to come up with points (make it hard on them too). I'm guessing they spent some time preparing for Houston on that fortnight they spent not playing basketball.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
Is really bad at defense, was 25% from 3, made 21 of 35 free throws, had 12 turnovers...and nearly won this game. That last possession alone where Gray splits 3 defenders was some of the worst defense I've ever seen. More contact at a middle school dance.
Michigan by 10.
play was painful to watch.
I'm in my 30s but by eighth grade there was quality contact during the middle school dance. In sixth grade, on the other hand, we left plenty of room for Jesus.
I think most on here (and maybe Vegas) are overrating Houston based on manbuns performance.
Houston basically should have lost to a 12 seed last night. And we are barely favored? Its not like they played Duke or Villinova.
And we just played one of the top 3 worst games of our season, and won by double digits covering the spread.
Michigan wins this by double digits. Quit worrying.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
Gray will need to score 39+ again for them to win.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
My concern is that we just played like we had never held a basketball before last night.
Once again, Delaney fucks the big ten. This time with a week plus layoff.
I'd say if we DO win convincingly tonight, maybe we can get it rolling. But, all the momentum we had pre-tournament is gone. I expect it to be the same for ALL big ten teams.
Basketball is a game of momentum. Lets hope that we have a good game tonight (and win) to build some or Carolina is going to be one ugly game.
March 16th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
just making sure you aren't disappointed when you try to watch tonight -- it's tomorrow.