Michigan Earns Three-Seed, Draws Montana In First Round
Michigan will be dancing in Wichita. [Marc-Gregor Campredon[
After the most inane bracket reveal in the history of television, we now know the NCAA Tournament bracket in full (pdf here). Michigan is the three-seed in the West region; they'll play Big Sky champion Montana on Thursday in Wichita.
UPDATE: Per Tony Paul of the Detroit News, Michigan will get the late tipoff on Thursday, approximately 9:50 pm ET.
While it rankles that Michigan State, also a three-seed, got the coveted placement in Detroit over their superior rivals, the Wolverines got the better draw. The Spartans get Kansas-Duke-Auburn as the 1-, 2-, and 4-seed in their region. Michigan drew Xavier (easily the weakest one-seed), North Carolina, and Gonzaga.
Even though Montana is the top-ranked 14-seed on KenPom, Michigan should match up well with them. The Grizzlies start two paint-bound bigs and rely heavily on forcing turnovers to spark their defense. They also lean hard on point guard Ahmaad Rorie, who gets to deal with Zavier Simpson.
Should the Wolverines avoid a massive upset, they'd draw the winner of Houston-San Diego State 6/11 game on Saturday. The Cougars rank 17th on KenPom, best of the six-seeds, but again the matchup looks decent on paper. The have an extreme high-usage point guard, Rob Gray, who'll draw Simpson. While they have a short, mobile frontcourt that should be able to switch against Michigan's offense, they're also quite small in the backcourt—three starters are 6'1" and no rotation player is taller than 6'8".
If the seeds hold to form, Michigan would then get a rematch with UNC in the Sweet Sixteen. That will undoubtedly be tough—you probably tried to forget the 86-71 loss in the Dean Dome—but the Wolverines have become a completely different team since then. Plus, John Beilein wiht a week to prepare against an opponent he's already seen and so on. The location is a bit of a bummer, but the draw could be a whole lot worse.
We'll have much more on the Montana game and potential future opponents this week, including a podcast we'll record tomorrow and post on Tuesday.
March 12th, 2018 at 12:49 AM ^
Massey has recency-bias built in--he's found it's predictive, and not just in basketball (he ranks damn near everything).
Obviously, recency bias likes Michigan. I was a bit surprised we made it all the way to 3 though. (In the headline ranking. 4 in the predictor metric, behind also Duke.)
March 12th, 2018 at 12:20 AM ^
For Msu is why you can't be overly reliant on kenpom projections. And +1 to you for the lol..
Would you rather be the 4 in our region and play Xavier, or the 3 and play UNC?
Definitely would prefer Xavier to UNC. But 4th seed Gonzaga will have to play Ohio State. Ohio State has a relatively easy road with Gonzaga, then Xavier, before facing us in the Elite Eight.
Not so sure OSU will get past the Jackrabbits.
Wouldn't say OSU has an easy road. Especailly when Gonzaga wiped the floor with them earlier this year. Obviously both teams have changed and improved since then, but hard to call it an easy road when OSU already lost by 27 to the Zags once.
I think everyone thinking MSU drew a tougher path is smoking something. Kansas should be a 2 seed and a low one, and Duke is not as good as North Carolina. MSU got an easier path to the final four and gets to play in Detroit. Anyone who thinks having to play NC and Xavier is a lucky draw for us is high.
MSU is not going to make it past TCU, so it's basically a non-issue.
Xavier is a very weak #1 seed, so at least you have that. Duke and UNC feel about the same to me; they both won at home and had a close game in the tournament. Duke feels like it has a higher ceiling, and UNC is clearly a step behind even the team Michigan saw to start the year, to say nothing of the past couple of seasons.
There is never an "easy" draw in the tournament, but Kansas has more talent than Xavier and, at least to me, has been playing better to end the year. Xavier closed with a somewhat soft schedule (in their last 10 games, 6 were 63+ in terms of Kenpom. Kansas, by comparison, played 9 of 10 teams in the Kenpom top 50. And both teams went 8-2 over that stretch.
Michigan's bracket is manageable, and gives them a clear path to the elite 8. But no one has a layup line or anything.
Good info, I'm pretty happy to get Xavier, I just think that MSU's draw is no tougher than ours, and may be slightly easier, plus they get to play in Detroit, which is a big advantage the first weekend. Our draw is fair, but I don't feel good about facing UNC. They are talented, experienced and battle tested. Yes they dropped some games against weak teams, but I've no doubt they will bring their best against us. If we can beat them, I feel very good about going to the final four or farther. I'd feel a lot better if we could face Cincinnati in the third round, though.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
Duke is MSU's nemesis. I can guarantee you Spartan fans didn't want to draw them.
March 12th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
Duke > NC
Gonzaga> auburn
March 12th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
Eh, they got an easier first two rounds for sure and home court advantage. But Duke was very very good in the last month, better than UNC on a whole. Plus they have the raw talent to match MSU. And drawing Xavier is a much better draw than Kansas. Auburn is a much better draw at the 4 than Gonzaga. Basically it comes down to how good you think Duke and Kansas currently are. I currently would rather avoid Duke in the S16 above the other choices, though Houston in the second round scares me. UM should win, but I can easily see that being a loss. Gonzaga maybe worries me the most because they're kind of a mirror UM. Good D, good O, not TO dependent on D, DREBs really well...
LET'S GO BLUE!
Let's make it to Staples; SoCal Wolverines are ready to show out in force!!!
If SoCal Wolverines step up in a tournament like their NYC and DC brothers, we should own the place.
There are a lot of UNC fans around, but outside NC they are front-runner TV fans who could not find Chapel Hill on a map. They won't match the passion of the Michgian fans.
Found it - You can ignore that message.
I like my team. The hell with Michigan State.
March 11th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^
March 12th, 2018 at 12:36 AM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:37 PM ^
40 miles from our house. Eight year old grandson, huge Michigan fan, and I will be there :)
March 11th, 2018 at 11:34 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
This Kansas mgoblogger welcomes Beilein and the team that can beat anyone.
March 11th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:08 PM ^
March 11th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
not totally out of line, per Kenpom:
Xavier +2 vs Gonzaga
Xavier -5 vs Mizzou
Xavier -4 vs FSU
March 12th, 2018 at 12:22 AM ^
March 12th, 2018 at 12:17 AM ^
March 12th, 2018 at 12:21 AM ^
I would be seriously concerned if we struggled against that western power Montana!
Just out of curiosity how harsh are Montana winters? Seems like it would be a great place to live except possibly for the winter
March 12th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
KenPom is not the be-all and end-all of everything. I highly doubt they are better than Iowa. Who is the best team Montana has beaten?
If the seeds hold to form, Michigan would then get a rematch with UNC in the Sweet Sixteen. That will undoubtedly be tough—you probably tried to forget the 86-71 loss in the Dean Dome—but the Wolverines have become a completely different team since then.
I have it on VERY good authority that a team that plays really good defense can handle UNC with few problems. Twice.
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