A call for calm
I have seen a ton of panic and negativity on this board since Saturday, but I think that if everyone can take a step back, there is a larger picture that explans so much of our struggles this season, and which and might provide a ray of hope.
It is fairly common after a coaching change for a coach to take a step back in year 3 because the exiting coach almost always recruited poorly during his last year or so (by virtue of being on the hot seat). As a result, while a new coach often comes into a situation in which he has talented upper classmen on the roster, by year 3, most of those players are gone and there is a gaping hole where the senior and junior talen should be.
That is precisely what we are going through right now. For Harbaugh's first two seasons, he was able to somewhat benefit from the upperclassmen that were on the roster from Hoke's first few successful recruiting classes. Those guys are gone, and in their place, our upperclassmen are made up of Hoke's much weaker last two classes. Those classes were followed by the disaster of a transition class that resulted from Michigan hiring Harbaugh almost on the eve of National Signing Day.
Harbaugh is not the first coach to experience initial success, followed by a tough 3rd year. The same thing happened to Hoke based upon RR's last few classes. While that may not be comforting, perhaps the following few examples will make everyone feel better:
Dabo Swinney - went 6-7 in his 3rd year, following a 9-5 2nd year. From year 4 forward, he hasn't won less than 10 games.
Urban Meyer (Florida edition) - following a 13 win national championship season in 2006, the program took a step back in 2007 and only won 9 games. That 3rd season was an outlier as it was followed by consecutive 13-win seasons in years 4 and 5.
Nick Saban (LSU edition) - followed a 10-win second season with an 8-5 3rd season, only to win 13 games (and a national championship) in year 4.
Nick Saban (Bama edition) - Hist first two full seaons were 12 and 14 wins (with a National Championship in year 2). In year 3, he took a relative step back to 10 wins, only to follow that with 12 and 13 win season (and 2 more national championships).
Mark Dantonio - after taking MSU to a 9 win second season (which, historically, is a great season for them), Mork went 6-7 in year 3, only to rebound to an 11-2 conference title season in year 4.
A few observations:
1. Each of those guys is a massive douchebag. Not necessarily relevant, but it jumps off the page.
2. Harbaugh may not recover as quickkly in year 4 as these guys because his transition class was really small and weak (not on him), and moreover, his first few classes really whiffed on OL).
3. Look at some of the young players on our roster. Aside from OL, which we need to fix ASAP (and which should resolve itself as our young line matures over the next 2 years), we are STOCKED with young talent. Unfortunately, this season, that talent is playing against older, stronger, more experienced players who are more fundamentally sound just from being older, stronger and more experienced. As these guys get older, stronger and more experienced, I think that the sky is the limit for our team.
tl;dr version - everyone chill out; we are really young; coaches struggle in year 3, even great coaches. history is a guide, will be rebound nicely over the next year or so.
October 10th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 6:11 PM ^
I get what OP is getting at here, but it's time to hold the brakes on the Meyer/Saban comparisons.
These comparisons are half the reason why everyone is laughing at Michigan and why Michigan's fanbase is having a crisis of confidence after losing this weekend.
Meyer and Saban are a couple steps above Harbaugh. They are the exception, not the rule.
If they're Tier 1, then Dabo Swinney and Jimbo Fisher are Tier 2.
I would then place Harbaugh with the likes of Chris Petersen, Gary Patterson, Mark Dantonio, David Shaw in the Tier 3 category.
If you notice, Harbaugh also lacks the hardware many of these coaches already have.
The expectations have been way too high since he got here, and Jim is also culpable with his antics off the football field.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
Right now, I'm not sure I would put Urban Meyer above Dabo Swinney. Dude is killing it at Clemson.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 11:28 PM ^
October 12th, 2017 at 10:14 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
2-0 against Urban and 3-0 agaisnt OSU?
Edit: 2-0 against both.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
Players have mini-golf for stress relief. We do not have mini-golf. Consider.
October 10th, 2017 at 8:57 PM ^
checks out
October 10th, 2017 at 11:03 PM ^
But Meyer’s track record and accomplishments at various programs are still wayyy ahead of Dabo.
October 11th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
To me thatputs him (for now) above Dabo
October 10th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
I dunno, Harbaugh doesn't have the hardware, but I feel like Swinney is the perfect comparison, and what having/trusting the right guy can do.
Dabo was an interim in 2008, and then a full time coach in 2009. From 2009-2015, things weren't perfect for Clemson; while they were piling up 10 win seasons, their record against rivals (South Carolina, GT, and FSU) was terrible. They went 1-5 against USCe, 3-4 against GT, and 2-4 against FSU. I mean, Clemsoning was a term for a reason
But Dabo stayed the course, made some coaching adjustments (firing 1 coordinator, and replacing another who got an HC gig), and now these past 2.5 years, they've lost 2 games total, gone to the playoffs twice, and won a NC last year.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:32 PM ^
His 3rd year Clemson went 10-4 and got blown out in their bowl game. That was without a full transition year because he was interim HC for half a season before getting the job full-time.
October 10th, 2017 at 9:26 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 8:13 PM ^
Hopefully Harbaugh makes some of those same coaching adjustments. Tim Drevno is nothing more than dead weight, this has been proven time and again over the past 2 and a half years.
October 10th, 2017 at 8:38 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 7:38 AM ^
I mean, if you're happy with the OL and playcalling then more power to ya I guess
October 10th, 2017 at 9:28 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 11:17 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 7:35 AM ^
Aided a lot by defense and special teams. OL has been bad all 3 years he's been here, it's been absolutely atrocious this year and is getting worse every game. And his playcalling is questionable at best. And it's not like he's some ace recruiter. He brings nothing to the table and we have 2 very capable coaches who can take over his two jobs full time.
October 11th, 2017 at 10:11 AM ^
I forget, weren't you one of the guys celebrating when Hoke canned Borges and brought in Nusmeier? How'd that work out for you?
October 11th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
I didn't join the blog until near the end of Hoke's tenure, so no that was not me.
October 11th, 2017 at 11:03 AM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
Well yeah, defense and special teams contributed to us being #1 in average field position last year, which undoubtedly aided the offense. Our offense was ranked like 40th in the nation per S&P last year, which IMO more accurately reflects the quality of the offense especially given the struggles against Iowa and OSU. 40th isn't bad, but it's about average as far as power 5 teams go.
I get that we have a young OL this year, but with a young OL you expect them to get better every game, not worse. People like to point the blame at Speight and O'Korn but there's no question that they're under a ton of duress every game. And Drevno's simply not good as an offensive coordinator or recruiter. He's had his time to prove his worth and he hasn't done it. I don't see why we can't just let Frey take over the OL and Pep take over the playcalling duties.
October 11th, 2017 at 8:59 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 10:09 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
You hit the nail right on the head my friend...... Keep calm and stay the course
October 10th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:25 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:45 PM ^
One fluke win over osu and even non-PSU fans are fellating him.
Oh they beat Wisconsin last year. Congrats. We clobbered them and certainly didn't allow 31 points.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:53 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^
I think we're due for some underdog surprises considering we got PSU, UW and OSU to contend with this year.
No way we lose all 3 of them. I refuse to believe it with the national championship caliber defense we have.
Hell, put the defense out there to play offense for all I care.
October 10th, 2017 at 8:37 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 8:44 PM ^
It's me being optimistic.
Even young teams pull surprises against better opponents. Maybe this is our year again to stifle an OSU/PSU championship run like we've done before.
October 10th, 2017 at 9:57 PM ^
Perhaps Michigan used up all its "underdog surprises" in 1993, 1995, 1996, & 1997. I hope you enjoyed that run, because I thought it sucked.
October 11th, 2017 at 12:31 AM ^
we were favorites to beat OSU.
October 11th, 2017 at 6:43 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 9:11 PM ^
run it up on someone, go for the TD or extra score just to piss them off and it's not happened, Thet's when I was thinking, "has coach lost the fire?"
I don't think he has lost it but would really love to see some kind of a signature win sometime soon. Well, okay besides Rutgers.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:06 PM ^
Franklin and Penn St won the freaking conference last year... I could care less it it's considered just lucky and if it was considered a fluke. Michigan hasn't won one of those in 13 years.
October 11th, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
Yes and they should have lost to Minnesota last year early, which would have burried them. BUT, so far this year its been going according to plan for them. The game with Michigan is huge for both teams.
October 11th, 2017 at 1:07 PM ^
Well we didnt' score 38 against them either....
October 10th, 2017 at 7:49 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:53 PM ^
Fire Harbaugh and try to find a better coach? Good luck with that man. Rich Rod was never even close to Harbaugh's level in terms of coaching pedigree. Don't compare the two situations because they are completely different. Some people are getting absolutely ridiculous here.
October 10th, 2017 at 9:38 PM ^