OT - Hurricane Harvey is about to Kick Texas' Behind
Mates,
Wasn't paying much attention to this one, but now they are saying 135 mph winds and a 10' storm surge with some parts rendered uninhabitable for months? Hopefully these are ridiculously overblown scenarios, but if they are accurate, Texas better look out!
NASA: Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...3 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... Corpus Christi Naval Air Station recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). A station at Aransas Pass run by the Texas Coastal Observing Network recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCH
August 25th, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 7:50 PM ^
How about THIS bizarre scenario?
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, many, many folks left terribly flooded New Orleans and never returned. It was a massive, massive forced human migration (a DIASPORA, if you will). In fact, Houston was the far-and-away biggest recipient of displaced people, taking in 250,000 New Orleansers (?) at one point.
Fast forward to today, and Harvey is bearing down on Houston with the real potential to do major damage, especially via flooding.
Wouldn't it be unsetling if every decade or so, a few hundred thousand people moved back and forth from New Orleans to Houston???
August 25th, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^
Think that might be a bit of hyperbole. Houston is far far away from its expected landfall.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
because there might not be much of houston to see on Tuesday.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^
Houston might be relatively ok compared to more southern locales, but bring your raft.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
The flooding is the real threat. There may be some wind damage but even if the wind drops to cat 1 levels or below on landfall the rain is going to be absolutely punishing.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^
Call me crazy, but I think Houston airports remain open for the majority of this event.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^
I thought rain itself was typically ok, which is why I think they'll stay open, but I could be wrong.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^
Houston is already under a tornado watch and will continue to experience tornado risk as long as they are close to or in the NE quadrant of the stronger general circulation, which provides ample helicity and vertical shear.
Edit: Flights are already being cancelled, there will be strong embedded supercells traversing the greater Houston area over the next several days. Just peep the latest HRRR model run:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRSC_CUR/rloop.html
August 25th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^
As long as you are properly equipped.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^
but the last guy that called you crazy was executed. i'm not falling for that old dictator trick!
August 25th, 2017 at 6:09 PM ^
Yup, and that was my uncle. Fed to the pigs. Shame.
August 25th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 8:57 PM ^
takes one to know one!
August 25th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^
Yeah. You're crazy. It's only an hour later and many flights are already cancelled. Airport will be down for a few days at least.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
I live in Houston... If the models are anywhere close to accurate, I don't think there will be any flights in or out by Tuesday. The real storm won't reach Houston until tonight and we're expected to get anywhere from 2ft to 4+ ft of rain between tonight and Wednesday morning. No planned evacuations in the city, but I expect just about every major roadway to be underwater for the next few days and *hopefully* no power loss.
Most importantly, would like to get up to Dallas next weekend for the game, so hopefuly I-45 is clear by then!
August 25th, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^
Good luck, man. That's a ton of rain.
August 25th, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
One mayor in a local town in the path told people who refused to evacuate to get a Sharpie and write their name and SS# on their arm. Fuck.
August 25th, 2017 at 7:22 PM ^
Seriously, pulling for all you guys down there. Godspeed.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
we're seeing I'm guessing your plans may change.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
dude, trust me - you aren't coming to Houston on Tuesday - they're projecting 2-3 ft of rain in and around houston by thursday...so you're not going to want to come to houston at all next week
i live in Houston, been thru several floods and two hurricanes... the flooding they're anticipating could be biblical
August 25th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
Upvoted not for Biblical flooding, but because it's the best I can do for now to say stay safe.
August 25th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 8:17 PM ^
and be directly over downtown Houston by Wednesday. I grew up there... that city floods every time some kid spills his Big Gulp. Even if you get in, you're not getting around town.
August 25th, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
I'm not a Texas person, but I am a weather geek and in following this I have found Eric Berger at Space City Weather the best source. He has been relatively sanguine up until today, not buying into the Weather Channel alarmism. But his latest forecast is just brutal (in his relatively understated way).
https://spacecityweather.com/after-looking-at-the-latest-forecast-model…
August 25th, 2017 at 5:46 PM ^
Unfortunately the most likely scenario now is that Harvey isn’t going anywhere, any time soon. Therefore, we can say with high confidence that Harvey will produce a [googles a synonym for ‘sh–load’] large amount of rainfall over Texas.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
Loved that. Though obviously a bummer for folks down there..
August 25th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
If this is more or less correct, it means Harvey has remained in Texas, within 100 or 200 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, for five days hoovering up moisture and heat from the bath-like Gulf and dumping it on the eastern half of Texas. Five days. I think Noah just maxed out his Home Depot credit card.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
Berger (who grew up in Michigan) is a good resource, and also a top source if you enjoy space program stuff.
The other guy that does really well with weather forecasting is Michigan alum Ryan Maue (@ryanmaue), who I followed because we used to work together at the Ann Arbor-Saline road Meijer but found to be the best national weather guy out there.
Because he's local to it, though, Berger has been on top of this for over a week.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^
I used to read him in the Houston Chronicle and then he just disappeared and I never knew where he went. I was too lazy/couldn't remember his last name to figure out where he went. Thanks for pointing him out!
August 25th, 2017 at 6:11 PM ^
He's on the NASA / Spaceflight beat for Ars Technica.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^
Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 dumped 2-3 ft of rain on HOU area - and that was a storm that lingered over the area for two days - this friggin storm is supposed to hover around the area for 5 days!!! and dump all the moisture contained in a Cat3 storm... its gonna be brutal
August 25th, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^
for Allison in '00, i had to wade home through the high portion of downtown Houston streets in thigh deep water - 6 blocks.... $5B in damage, and that was "just" a 'tropical storm'. Water always wins!
i can only hope the forecasts for Harvey are grossly over-stated, but suspect they're not.
August 25th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
it just moved to a cat 4
August 25th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
Jesus...I'm already heartbroken and we're hours from impact.
August 25th, 2017 at 8:30 PM ^
A nice source is Tropical Tidbits, by a grad student at Florida State. He does an excellent job in his videos explaining some of the science behind the forecasts.
August 25th, 2017 at 5:50 PM ^
Godspeed to those in the way of Harvey. I remember the many hurricanes that rolled through Florida back in 2004. It was incredible the amount of damage they did. Pictures and watching on TV did not do it justice. Stay safe Texans!
August 25th, 2017 at 5:53 PM ^
The flooding is going to be horrible.
Godspeed Texas Gulf coast.
August 25th, 2017 at 6:02 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 7:30 PM ^
August 25th, 2017 at 6:02 PM ^