Updated Bovada Odds (win totals)
Bovada currently has Michigan at 9 wins.
Now the juicy stuff... They have Michigan State at 6.5 wins with a favorable 1:2 return if you bet the under. YES. That means if you bet the under, Michigan State HAS TO WIN 7 GAMES for you to lose your money.
If you are a betting man, I'd create an account right now and bet the under for MSU. With 1:2 odds that is easy money. I'd imagine that 6.5 will shrink closer to 5.5/6 really soon.
Does anyone see 7 wins on their schedule???
http://www.mlive.com/sports/2017/07/michigan_win_total_odds_set_at.html…
-200 means you bet 200 to win 100, not the other way around. They're heavily trying to incentivize people to take the over.
My bad, I read it backwards!! Thanks
Hardly anyone will bite on the over for Sparty. Bad bookmaking...
It is usually for the 12 game regular season.
Eh, Michigan State going 6-6 seems about right honestly.
Over on Maryland and under on MSU all day.
Maryland gets to 4+ wins:
Easy W's: Rutgers, Towson
Toss-Ups: Texas, UCF, Minnesota, Indiana, MSU
MSU doesn't get to 7 wins:
Easy W's: Rutgers, BGSU, WMU
Toss-Ups: ND, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota
Losses: Michigan, OSU, PSU, NW
I think they lose to ND, Iowa, and Maryland, while beating Minnesota and Indiana. MSU finishes 5-7 and Maryland finishes 5-7 as well.
The love mainly stems from their RB's.
I think they are a good QB away from rightfully taking over #4 in the B1G East, and actually being a Nebraska-level team in the not so distant future.
I haven't researched their defense yet, but I really like their offense.
I think (and hope) they can spoil Herman's debut at Texas.
they did finish ahead of Louisiana-Monroe. But that was it among FBS' 128 teams.
I suppose it's near impossible for Maryland to be quite that bad again. But that stat alone gives me pause as to being optimistic on Maryland. If you can't stop the run, you generally lose a whole lot of football games, especially in the B1G.
And they finished 6-7 last year!
Imagine now with a real QB and a better defense (really couldn't get any worse, right?)
I was among the ~ 10,000 people who actually paid $$$ to see the Motor City Bowl live.
As they showed in that game: Maryland is entertaining enough. They do score. But when Boston College (!!!) of all teams is carving up your defense, it's a problem.
They will be better than they were last year but they have a much harder schedule. That Texas game is not at all a "toss up" as was stated above, it would be a big upset. They have a great RB group and a surprisingly decent OL with one really good lineman. Their defense has a few good players in Aniebonam, Opara and Carter but will still struggle, especially against the run. We might not get to 15 pass attempts against them.
It would be majorly impressive if they got to a bowl game this year.
OK, but has Bovada updated their "number of redlocks over/under" yet???
My Blue Lock play of the season---Michigan wins 12, take the over on anything up to 11.5.
I believe the number will start to creep upward as the season draws closer, but I'm good with the general public as reflected by the sports books putting the number at 9 or 9.5 to even out the money bet.
I feel we are going to sneak up on some people. Beat Florida, hold serve, and then take our chances in Happy Valley. If we make it through that, and its not unthinkable at all, then the sky is the limit.
We are going to SMASH Florida! They don't have a clue about what's going to hit them, they're gonna be chomped up in the eye teeth of a northern hurricane causing a Texas Flood! They'll be running home to hide in the safety of the swamp!
The problem will be maintaining the focus, ignoring the hype, not getting big heads or looking ahead in all the games that will be treated as gimmies after they see what we can do against Florida, & not leaving anything on the table in any of the big games.
season. I get how that could happen. But, in the 3rd year of Harbaugh, I wouldn't be satisfied with that. This is definitely a pivotal year for Coach H and his reputation. He really needs to win a majority of the big games on the schedule to stay in the conversation of being an elite coach in college. I certainly believe in his long term approach. But Stanford is getting further behind in the rear view mirror. I'm optimistic that Coach will be able to pull off a special season.
on a 9-3 regular season. Not the end of the world but a little disappointing. He's still a year a way from having the death star locked and loaded and at full power but as has been mentioned in other threads, the season really comes down to 4 games - Florida, PSU, Wisky and OSU. 1-3 in those games would be a bummer.
I honestly think MSU will win 6-7 games, with 7 being more likely. The only two guaranteed losses I see for them are in Columbus and Ann Arbor.
- Bowling Green
- @ Rutgers: They still shut out the Scarlet Knights last year despite going 3-9; Rutgers will not win a Big Ten game.
- WMU at home: Last year, Western would've won, but they lose the vast majority of their production in addition to their coaching staff
- Notre Dame: Game is in East Lansing at night and we have to remember that Notre Dame was also trash last year and, even though State was one game trashier, MSU managed to beat the Irish in South Bend.
- 2 out of 3 of home games vs: Iowa, Indiana and Maryland: Having all of these games at home helps. Iowa loses a lot of their production and is poised to take a step back; IU and MD only just barely beat state last year and this year both games shift back to East Lansing, in addition to IU losing their coaching staff.
- Finally, I wouldn't be shocked if MSU wins 1 out of 3 of their @Minnesota, @Northwestern and vs. Penn State matchups. They catch the Nittany Lions at a very good time: immediately after playing a road game in Columbus. If PSU gets demoralized by a vengeful Ohio State, watch out for them to be off their game for their trip to East Lansing. Remember, Dantonio is a better coach than Franklin.
Nine seems like a pretty good bet for michigan. What's the return on that (meaning +/-100)?
I wouldn't stake a lot of money on 10+ wins, though I do believe they get there (just not enough to put substantial money on it), but it's hard for me to imagine them only winning 8 or fewer games with their schedule. Push or better seems like a favorable bet.