2/17 Bracketology Update
A few major bracketologists have come out with their Friday updates, and Michigan has moved into the high single digit seed range.
CBS Sports: 9-seed vs. Miami.
SB Nation: 9-seed.
USA Today: 9-seed vs. Dayton.
The Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated to reflect our win over Wisconsin as of yet. Beat Minnesota and we'll be playing for seeding barring a meltdown.
February 17th, 2017 at 11:45 AM ^
Prior to our win yesetrday Lunardi had as 10 seed playing South Carolina in the first. I'd guess we're up to a 9 seed now but that bracket also proved Lunardi's incompetence, since the committee wouldn't have a rematch in the first round.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
in Lunardi's bracket are NU and Minny (no way the NCAA has two teams from the same conference play in the first round) and Xavier. You'd probably flip MSU (he has them playing Xavier) and UM.
February 17th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
in the individual matcups - whereas the point of the exercise is the seed lines.
February 17th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
Most people who follow college basketball could get 64 out of 68 teams right. That's why dozens of random .blogspot people outperform Lunardi on Bracket Matrix. I'm not saying he sucks, it's just that you have the AQs as well as 30-32 at-larges that are basically guaranteed, and then you have a dozen or so teams fighting for the last 6 spots or so.
February 17th, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^
Given that he changes his predictions daily, if he actually only gets 64 out of 68 teams right in a typical year, that would be quite poor. By the final weekend, about 60 of the teams in the tournament are locks; there aren't that many genuine bubble teams at the end.
I think his record is a little better than that but still, even getting all 68 right isn't that hard when you can make your final prediction on Selection Sunday itself.
February 17th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
USA Today: 9-seed vs. Dayton.
So play in game to determine coach of UM next year?
BA-DA-BING!
#REHIREBEILEIN
#FIREBORGES
February 17th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
As much as I would hate to see Archie leave UD, it really is only a matter of time before that happens. It may be in his best interest to jump ship after this year as he has a great group of seniors leaving after this season and the team is likely to take a big step back next year.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
NC State fired Mark Gottfried this week (or will at the end of the season). I'm sure that Archie Miller will be at the top of their list. He and his wife both graduated from NCSU.....it seems like a pretty good fit.
On the other hand, I heard last night (might have been during the Michigan game), that Archie might not be interested in the NCSU job. There's a A LOT of pressure to win there and going head-to-head against Duke and UNC every year isn't the best way to grow a program. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
but at the same time Coach K is 70, and Roy Williams is 66. Both of those dudes probably wont be there sooner, rather than later, and all it takes is one bad hire for NC State to pass them up in the heirarchy for the time being. Think of it like the OSU-Michigan-Sparty triangle.
February 17th, 2017 at 2:46 PM ^
UNC and Duke have the cache and the cash and the pressure not to let a bad hire hurt them for too long, like Michigan. Even if they whiff on a replacement, he'd only get three years tops before they back the money truck up again, like Michigan. They wouldn't stay down for long.
Miller could have a Dantonio-like few year run with his rival down, but it wouldn't remain like that long.
NC State does have a much better basketball pedigree and history than MSU football though. They were a marquee program in the 80s and prior. They were the true rival to UNC up until then and it was only Coach K that put Duke on the map and moved them ahead of NC State. So there is a little more to work with there. I bet Miller gives it serious consideration, and wouldn't be surprised if he goes there.
February 17th, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
UNC and Duke have the cacheWhat are they storing?
February 18th, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
on the cachet misspelling call-out.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
See UNC and Matt Dougherty. 26-7 and Co-champs of the ACC in the regular season his first. 2 bad years after that and gonzo.
February 20th, 2017 at 9:10 PM ^
but I'm not 100% sold Duke isn't gonna get sucked into getting a "Coach K Guy", much like how Michigan was a little too enamored with getting a "Michigan Man".
February 17th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
I just don't think NC State is that good of a job. I don't see any interest coming from Archie's camp. Apparently he is willing to stay at Dayton until a top 10-20 Job opens up. Kind of like the Shaka Smart route.
February 17th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
The OP said beating Minny should get us in "barring a meltdown." Winning Sunday would put us at 18-9 -- failing to to get to 20 wins means we'd have gone 1-3 (or worse) over the final 4 regular season games and gotten bounced in the first round of the B1G tournament. By necessity we'd have lost to one of Rutgers and Nebraska. I think that qualifies as a meltdown, so the OP has your point of contention covered.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
Exactly, any scenario that involves us losing to Rutgers AND getting bounced in the first round of the BTT is a meltdown in my mind.
February 17th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
those are our only two losses (@RU and BTT) and we win @Minny, Purdue, @NW and @Neb, not only are we going to the tourney, we're a 7 or 8 seed. We can lose to Rutgers as long as we still win at least 3 other games. Let's not lose to Rutgers though.
February 17th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
Other than Rutgers, KenPom has the remaining four games as +/- 3 points either way.
Hearing 4 of 5 on the road sounds intimidating but we have had success recently at all four venues and all are not that intimidating, I could honestly see us running the table.
Hell, even a top 4-5 seed in the B10 tourney is not out of the realm of possibility which is huge. Top 4 get double byes and 5 plays Rutgers which is basically a double bye.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
Actually, they would play the winner of the 12/13 game, but either way: yeah, not Rutgers.
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2016…
February 17th, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
Wouldn't team five seed play the winner of the 12/13 game from the day before? Rutgers, assuming they do indeed finish last, would have to play in the 11/14 game, and I think the winner would play the six seed. Then you have a 7/10 game and an 8/9 game. Right?
February 17th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
They will probably have to beat one, if not both, of Minny and NU since tiebreakers could very well come into play as to who the 4 and 5 seeds are.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:06 PM ^
Oops. sorry. Went back to the days of the 12 team league. My bad. Neg away. I deserve it.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^
if not as a play-in. Start with a 6 and then get a 3. Worse path to get a win, but better path to advancing 2-3 games
February 17th, 2017 at 1:54 PM ^
A lot a times it's a gift to a well respected coach or big name school. The 14 over 3 upsets seem to happen about every year,
February 17th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
Hopefully can keep the momentum going and keep building on it. I'd like to see a decent run in both tourneys. Good builiding blocks for years to come.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
in the Gonzaga 1 seed bracket.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
Why?
Because it says "Gonzaga" on the jersey? That team is legit talented and would be a bad matchup for UM, especially if UM didnt shoot the 3 ball well.
February 17th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
I feel the same way. Basically to get the 6 seed we need to crack the top 25. Is it doable? I don't know.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
Being ranked in the Top-25 doesnt assure you of getting a top-6 seed nor vice-versa.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
The bubble is extremely soft this year. I see teams on the bubble with losing records in their conference. 3 wins and we are safe or 2 and a first round BTT win and we are safe.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
If you're in a Power 5 conference, you have to be pretty bad to not make the NCAA tourney. With the Big 12, Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC around half the teams from each of those conferences usually make the tourney.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:51 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
TeamRankings is going with an 11-seed for Michigan right now, 69% chance of getting in and a projected 20-11 record. They are predicting 8% for an auto-bid, as they normally put that out there too.
They are projecting 8 bids for the ACC, 6 for the Big Ten, 5 each for the Big East, Pac-12, SEC and Big XII as well
February 17th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^
We know this can all go up in a poof of smoke. Very fluid and will likely change after each game. Gotta love how we're trending though and the way the team is playing right now. They keep it up, we could move up a little. Bottom line, just make the dance!!
GO BLUE!!
February 17th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^
Agree. When I think of this year the Va. Tech game really sticks out in my mind. Until the last two weeks I thought that game would be the story of this team, in 40 minutes. Missed opportunities, blown leads, unrealized potential. It may yet be the story. But senior leadership in the last three games has changed the narrative. The seniors have the ability to elevate this team to an elite level. And when Wagner and Wilson get active challenges (without fouling), this is also a quite good defensive team.
Taking a step back, this team has destoyed solid competition (SMU, MSU, Indiana) like it hasn't done since the '13 title run. Maybe the last three wins will give this team the confidence to play with consistency.
February 17th, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^
The 8/9 line. Either winning a lot more games, or losing just enough to be a 10.
February 17th, 2017 at 9:39 PM ^
RPI is still terrible at 54. There are no teams below this level of RPI who are definitely in the Tournament. I read somewhere that the NCAA is going away from RPI this year, but it is still a factor.
February 18th, 2017 at 1:16 AM ^
now, but weird that we only bumped up a couple spots after beating Wisconsin. They're still using RPI this year, but supposedly moving away from it next year. I feel like they're aware of the flaws and have been considering it's limitations for a couple years when evaluating bubble teams.
Definitely would like to get that up and a couple road wins should do it.