Hoops Preview: Michigan State, Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#40 Michigan (14-9, 4-6 B1G) vs #49 Michigan State (14-9, 6-4) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
WHEN | 9 pm ET, Tuesday |
LINE |
Michigan -4 (KenPom) Michigan -4.5 (Vegas) |
TV |
ESPN PBP: Dan Shulman Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: Searching for help, probably. [Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]
THE US
As covered in detail yesterday, Michigan is in must-win mode now. They have three home games left among their eight remaining regular-season games. Tonight's is the only one in which they're favored. They need to win five of their last eight, in all likelihood, to feel comfortable about their at-large chances. They haven't won a true road game all year.
Michigan's most likely path to the tournament is sweeping the rest of the home slate (MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue) and taking games at Rutgers and Nebraska. Those who are understandably pessimistic about M's ability to hold up against the Badgers and Boilermakers can pin their hopes on beating a fading Minnesota squad in The Barn and hoping Northwestern pulls a Northwestern down the stretch. While the task is by no means impossible, almost no matter how you slice it, M needs to come out on top tonight.
THE LAST TIME
In the matchup at the Breslin Center nine days ago, Derrick Walton willed his way to 24 points and Michigan won the rebounding battle (hard to believe after Saturday, I know), but that was about all that went right in a 70-62 loss that didn't feel as close as the final score. Zak Irvin didn't score, Moe Wagner couldn't stay out of foul trouble, and the team shot only 40% on twos and 27% on threes.
For the Spartans, big man Nick Ward played only 16 minutes—it turns out he was battling the flu—and made all six of his shots from the field. Miles Bridges had a rather inefficient 15 points but came up big down the stretch, while Cassius Winston repeatedly worked his way into the paint for 16 points, ten of which came at the line.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 11 | Tum Tum Nairn | Jr. | 5'10, 175 | 59 | 13 | 109 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Decent distributor, but wonky shot has only improved slightly. Tiny usage for PG. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 14 | Eron Harris | Sr. | 6'3, 190 | 59 | 24 | 105 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Excellent three-point shooter both on spot-ups and off the bounce. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Josh Langford | Fr. | 6'5, 210 | 50 | 15 | 110 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Good spot-up shooter who sticks to perimeter; 3 FT attempts in B1G play. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 22 | Miles Bridges | Fr. | 6'7, 230 | 55 | 26 | 102 | Not At All | |||||||||||
ORtg doesn't do his all-around game justice. As he goes, so goes MSU. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 44 | Nick Ward | Fr. | 6'8, 250 | 48 | 33 | 106 | Very | |||||||||||
Massive-usage post scorer. Great rebounder and shot-blocker. Just over the flu. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 5 | Cassius Winston | Fr. | 6'0, 185 | 51 | 25 | 106 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Boasts #1 assist rate in the country, but inconsistent shot and too many TOs. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 25 | Kenny Goins | So. | 6'6, 230 | 47 | 12 | 99 | Very | |||||||||||
Former walk-on forced to spot Ward at C. Decent finisher but very TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 3 | Alvin Ellis | Sr. | 6'4, 210 | 40 | 20 | 104 | No | |||||||||||
Decent outside shooter, disruptive defender getting more time lately. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 20 | Matt McQuaid | So. | 6'4, 200 | 49 | 15 | 99 | No | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™ making 35% of threes, 29% of twos. 3/3 3P in first matchup. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Covered in great detail in the first game preview, though I shouldn't omit reserve guard Matt McQuaid this time around. McQuaid briefly broke out of a season-long slump to hit all three of his three-point attempts in the first game; he should be run off the line at all costs, as he's made only 29% of his twos this year.
As mentioned above, Nick Ward played through the flu in the first matchup, as did backup center Kenny Goins. (And Zak Irvin, FWIW.) That lingered through last Thursday's MSU win over Nebraska, which Goins started after Ward had a brief hospital stay after the Michigan game. Tom Izzo says both are fully recovered.
THE RESUME
The Spartans struggled through a nonconference gauntlet that included losses to four of the top 16 teams in the country and a slip-up against #118 Northeastern. After a 3-0 start in Big Ten play, they lost four of the next five, then bounced back with consecutive wins over Michigan and Nebraska.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
With the center position down to Nick Ward, scotch tape, and some spare paper clips, MSU's offense looks different than any Izzo offense that's preceded it. That's mostly based on their performance on the glass: this is on pace to be Izzo's worst offensive rebounding team in his tenure by some distance. They're more turnover-prone than usual and also more reliant on the outside shot.
The defense has managed to remain strong due to excellent interior defense and rebounding; I realize this is hard to reconcile with the issues on offense. The Spartans block a lot of shots; they also commit a lot of fouls.
THE KEYS
Get Ward off the court. Keeping this one from the first game. Ward had his way with Michigan's interior defense when he was on the court even though he was flu-ridden enough to be hospitalized after the game. That, uh, doesn't bode particularly well for M stopping him in any way other than foul trouble now that he's healthy. The good news is that's not far-fetched; Ward averages 5.5 fouls/40 minutes and doesn't have the speed/agility to stay with Moe Wagner or DJ Wilson if they take him off the dribble. Conversely, Wagner staying out of foul trouble is, as always, paramount to M's chances to win.
Stay focused, MAAR. Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman's defense has been up and down this season. It's tough to predict whether he'll be locked in, like he was against James Blackmon Jr. and Indiana, or prone to drifting off, like he was against Ohio State. With Eron Harris and Josh Langford presenting constant threats to drill spot-up triples, MAAR needs to be focused and not get caught ball-watching; he did a good job of that the first time around, when neither Harris nor Langford even attempted a three.
Do something, Zak Irvin. Michigan probably wins both of the last two games if Irvin fulfills this goal. He decidedly did not. There's no Plan B with Ibi Watson apparently not ready to see anything approaching significant minutes, so M is going to ride or die with Irvin. At the very least, he needs to cut down on the turnovers and bad shot selection while trying to get his shooting dialed back in; he can be effective if he sticks to controlled drives off the pick-and-roll.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 4.
The proverbial momentum was heading the complete opposite way heading into the first matchup, so let's hope it swings once again. Vegas is more optimistic than both KenPom and the average Michigan fan: after the line opened at M -3.5 or -4 in most places, it's moved to M -4.5 or -5.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Brendan Quinn on Charles Matthews:
Ineligible to play this year due to NCAA transfers rules, Matthews is the star of Michigan's scout team. According to those who attend practices, he's described as follows: Slasher. Dynamic athlete. Shot creator. Lock-down defender.
Essentially, everything the Wolverines are currently missing.
"When we go five-on-five, he does some things where you stop and say, 'Wow,'" Zak Irvin said. "He's going to be something special."
Man, let's hope so.
February 7th, 2017 at 2:58 PM ^
outside of indiana and in new york, seems kenpom always likes us a bit too much
MSU by 4
February 7th, 2017 at 7:57 PM ^
Vegas consistently likes us better than even kenpom. I think we're only like 7-16 ATS but those massive blowout wins against good teams keep vegas positive (and kenpom of course).
February 7th, 2017 at 3:03 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^
MSU has the same record as us (14-9). Pretty logical that we're favored.
I think we will win. That's not necessarily because I have a lot of faith in this team, but I because I don't think all that much of MSU, either.
February 7th, 2017 at 4:15 PM ^
Also 4.5 seems like a lot to favor us by when we've played one good game in the past month.
February 8th, 2017 at 5:34 AM ^
You were saying?
;)
February 7th, 2017 at 10:54 PM ^
Michigan -4.... still want to go ALL CAPS on that many HAHA's?
February 7th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 6:03 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
They might play well enough to make it interesting down the stretch, but it also wouldn't surprise me in the least if we lose out. I wouldn't count the games at Rutgers and NEB as gimmes.
February 7th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
Win The Game
February 7th, 2017 at 4:34 PM ^
Hoping for a big win so we can solidify our NIT seeding.
February 7th, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
Key #3: Do something, Zak Irvin. True dat. Nice snippet on Charles Matthews. Looking forward to more athleticism next season. I'm far too big of a Michigan basketball fan to give up on this team, but they sure are frustrating to watch. Looks like they're just going through the motions at times. Need big games from Wagner & Wilson tonight. I'm not sure what to expect from Irvin anymore (if anything).
February 7th, 2017 at 8:01 PM ^
and your recognition that we just go through the motions sometimes, surprised you point out athleticism as the need for next year. We have plenty of that. More of that won't even help if we continue to give the kind of effort we've given too often this season. This team needs heart, leadership and focus far more than additional athleticism (it'd be nice, but certainly not necessary to be a lot better).
February 7th, 2017 at 8:26 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^
I do not. In fairness to Michigan, part of that is about MSU being lackluster too.
February 7th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
... but by this time of year, you are what you are, and this is not an NCAA tourney caliber team.
February 7th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
has sucked.
but beating msu would make it better
February 7th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 7:48 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 8:02 PM ^
which....hahahaha.
February 7th, 2017 at 5:45 PM ^
February 7th, 2017 at 8:04 PM ^
this has probably been floated before, but anonymous donor for the Rome trip? Good international exposure for the brand.
February 7th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
I feel like the two losses have featured absurdly bad games from Irvin, and indescribably bad rebounding against OSU. I think that things revert to means, and that Beilein has a bit of Lloyd Carr's ability to get off the mat in him. If Irvin plays reasonably well I expect a hard fought game but a Michigan win.
February 7th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
Longing for the days when darius morris snarled at kalin lucas to get the fuck off his court
February 7th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^
I'd disagree with how close the game seemed. It did seem a close game all the way though. A few stops and a bucket to match and it was a one possession game, the whole way. I know that's easier said than done when Miles Bridges was scoring at will but, it didn't feel like we weren't in it...I thought we were the whole way.
February 7th, 2017 at 7:25 PM ^
Yes but we played so horrifically that the game seemed forever out of reach
February 7th, 2017 at 8:09 PM ^
he had 15 pts on 17 shots and a FT with 2 TOs for a bad Ortg of 94. Wilson did a great job on him and that's a line we'd love to see again from Bridges tonight.
Nick Ward went 6-6, Winston had 16 pts in just 10 shot equivalents and McQuaid had 9 pts on 5 shots. Those are the guys that killed us.
February 7th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^
I blame the previous loss on his omission and your subsequent response to the effect of "I only put the top eight and he's not good". Then he ended up being the difference in the game. It's all your fault, Ace!
Seriously though, he'll get a lot of time again because he matches up well with Robinson. Their Just A Shooter status masks each others defensive liabilities.
February 7th, 2017 at 8:37 PM ^
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