Preview 2016: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Previously: Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense. 5Q5A: Defense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
2015 | -0.31 (92nd) | 10 | 2 | 2.5 (32nd) | 10 | 6 | 1.4 (28th) |
2015 was nothing like the other new-coach uptick in recent history. Michigan recovered and absurdly low 2 fumbles in 2015; Brady Hoke's first team hopped on 20. With very similar pass rush numbers that's just damned bad luck.
With De'Veon Smith back fumbles lost should remain low. Interceptions are an open question with a new QB and new left tackle. Takeaways should increase as Michigan moves to more zone, specifically sneaky disguised zones, and because of dumb luck on the fumbles. I'd be surprised if this doesn't end up in the top 30, except I'm never surprised by turnover numbers since they're so low sample.
Position Switch Starters
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
The dossier:
Chris Wormley to three-tech. Half the time he'll be playing SDE and he's already displayed an ability to play the spot. Concern level: zero.
Maurice Hurst to three-tech. His best spot. Concern level: zero.
Mason Cole to center. Also his best spot. Concern level: zero.
Jabrill Peppers to SAM. This is mostly a relabeling of his previous position and an acknowledgement of modern football. Concern level: zero.
Taco Charlton and Chase Winovich to WDE. Charlton actually moved their last year and got a few starts in. I'm not concerned about that. Winovich as a position-switch top backup who will see time is less than ideal. There have been some reports that he gets edged fairly routinely. But he is the backup. Concern level: slight.
And that's it. This is the fewest number of significant moves in the history of this preview series. It's basically Winovich, the end.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
There aren't many games on the schedule that will be single digit spreads for Michigan. They're favored at MSU and Iowa and only a significant dog at Ohio State; while they could stub their toe against PSU or Wisconsin both of those teams are taking new QBs on the road behind shaky offensive lines. Indiana looms because #CHAOSTEAM, but after seeing last night I'm guessing their offense takes a big step back.
They could lose the three big road games. 9-3.
Best Case
Michigan has more talent than anyone they face. Only Ohio State can argue otherwise, and they've got to replace a zillion starters. If they slip up 12-0 feels way more likely than it should.
Final Verdict
This team will be a national championship contender. Michigan is stacked everywhere except OL, LB, and QB. Those slots project to be average-ish, not season-ending debacles. Meanwhile, the schedule…
OOC | ||
---|---|---|
9/3 | Hawaii | Must win |
9/10 | Central Florida | Must win |
9/17 | Colorado | Must win |
Conference | ||
9/24 | Penn State | Must win |
10/1 | Wisconsin | Must win |
10/8 | @ Rutgers | Must win |
10/22 | Illinois | Must win |
10/29 | @ MSU | Lean to win |
11/5 | Maryland | Must win |
11/12 | @ Iowa | Lean to win |
11/19 | Indiana | Must win |
11/26 | @ Ohio State | Tossup |
Absent: | Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska |
…is super pliable.
Here's where I talk about combinatorial mathematics and how it's impossible to predict 12-0 seriously. Let's assume 3-0 in the nonconference. If Michigan has a 90% chance to win every conference game, the chance they go undefeated is 39%. Michigan does not have a 90% chance to win every conference game. There's literally no team in the country you should ever predict goes 12-0. Connelly's S&P rankings think that no team is even 50% likely to go 11-1.
This is why it's stupid to predict 12-0. I've never done it and never will, probably. Predicting 12-0 is an act of bravado not rooted in facts.
12-0.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
I always predict undefeated, because what's the fun of being "realistic"?
GO BLUE!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
YES PLEASE
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
OH HE DID IT
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
Hope you're right. GO BLUE!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
It is on
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
GAAAAHHHH! WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU!!! PANIC PANIC PANIC
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^
12-0!!!!!!!!!!! I f***ing love you, Ace!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
You know nothing JonSnow...that was Brian. Unless you knew that which really ruins my tag line.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
The hell with facts.
12-0.
Let's GO.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
climax.
Let's just have no significant injuries please. That is all.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:15 PM ^
12-0 is not an act of bravado, it's an act of faith in all things Harbaugh.
Bless you my son.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
And an act of 'Fuck You Probability'
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^
CAN'T WAIT DOT GIF
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^
ITS THAT WHOOP WHOOP
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^
12-0
I had a stats professor who said that if there is a 97% chance to not go 12-0 you can always take the 3% chance.
(Iowa is listed as not being on the schedule and also as being on the schedule.)
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:45 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
Whenever I go traveling, I worry non-stop until I figure out what 1 item I forgot to pack. Once it was my belt, once it was my tie. At my first ever conference presentation, I had to buy a tie from the hotel gift shop. It sort of matched my suit. Anyway, once I identify what I forgot, I calm down immediately because I never forget more than one thing. I noticed Brian's Iowa/not-Iowa mistake right away. That must mean that his 12-0 prediction is accurate.
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:39 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:43 PM ^
I confuse Purdue and Iowa all the time. They have the same mascot, practically.
September 4th, 2016 at 2:29 PM ^
We won't know whether Schrodinger's Hawkeyes are actually on the schedule until the November 12th game begins.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:16 PM ^
A true act of bravado.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^
Hail yeah!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^
Unless a game gets cancelled. Its 15-0 or bust....
September 2nd, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
unless the Big 10 West representative figures why bother and fails to show up
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:41 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:45 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
We die like vikings in the Playoff semis, but not before smiting all conference foes.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^
Well, that was unexpected.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^
you said it man... nobody fucks with the jesus
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:21 PM ^
FUCKING GO BLUE!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:21 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^
This comment belongs in the Kaepernick thread
September 2nd, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^
Wrong place for this comment! This is supposed to be an undefeated prediction posbang.
Your comment still made me laugh.
September 2nd, 2016 at 9:46 PM ^
Don't really care who you leave the tickets to, but if the rest of it is a package deal....
I'll seriously consider it. Let me get back to you.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
12-0! Not going to lie - may have gotten a little choked up upon seeing that.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:42 PM ^
While your take is by no means unreasonable, it has no place in this hype-train POSBANG thread. Go Blue!
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
I almost hate how hopeful I am about this season... It scares the crap out of me.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
i'm ashamed to admit that i am also predicting 12-0. i hate myself.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
Did UM even force that many fumbles last year? I don't remember that many. Before you can recover a fumble, you gotta create the fumble.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
The picture at the beginning of the post, and a Mr. Tommy Rees, beg to differ.
September 2nd, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
2011 was not exactly "last year."
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