Stock Watch 2015
Last year I told you to bet on Beckman, which was correct... in a sense
I thought a fourth kid had put me into full-fledged retirement, but apparently there are few of you degenerates out there who still think this is good advice to put your [theoretical] dollars behind. Here it is, your 2015 Stock Watch.
Before we get into this season, the annual transparent review of the prior year’s predictions:
Wins:
Illinois
I may not be sold on Tim Beckman, but my numbers are high on [no longer] his Illinois team this year. 762 out of 1,000 scenarios run have the Illini exceeding their projected 4.5 wins this year, with over half putting Illinois in line for a bowl bid.
The ACC
A big ball of mediocre. Even more pronounced than the Big Ten, I have everyone but BC (over 4.5 wins) within 1.2 games of the Vegas win total. On top of that, 9/14 teams are predicted between 3-5 and 5-3 in conference.
The Pac 12
the numbers like Cal a lot more and Colorado a lot less than the projected win totals.
Losses:
Michigan State
One of my biggest sells of the season are the Spartans with only 5.5% of simulations seeing the Spartans exceed their 9.5 win projection.
Texas
The model is predicting about 9 wins and a virtual tie with Oklahoma, right behind predicted frontrunner Baylor.
Push:
The SEC
After picking Tennessee to breakout in previous years, the model has given up on the Volunteers this season, along with Les Miles’ LSU squad. Two teams projected to overachieve, are league favorite Auburn, which despite a brutal schedule, the model pegs at 10.5 wins, a full 1.5 wins above Vegas along with the rebuilding Kentucky Wildcats.
2015: The Season At Hand, and Other Obvious Subtitles
Buying one, selling the other Pac-12 opponent
Every year in the offseason I test my preseason prediction model, tweaking the coefficients to match the model with the most accurate prediction. Usually it’s just a small move here or there, not really amounting to much. This year I looked at a new variable I called MVP effect. MVP effect looks at the points per play for all QBs and RBs on an offense. Each players’ PPP on their carries+passes is compared versus what the PPP for the team on all other players. This is the gap. The gap is then multiplied by the numbers of plays that the player was responsible for to get their total contribution. I plugged in the MVP stat and took out any stats dealing with returning QBs+RBs and saw a 2.3% reduction in total offense prediction error, and a 2.0% reduction in total error. A pretty big jump for a well-established model. This is part of the reason you’ll see some of these teams as buys or sells.
ACC
Buying: Pitt
Return a lot of key pieces on offense and the defense was pretty bad and just hired a new head coach who’s not too bad at coaching that side of the ball.
Selling: Virginia Tech
I know they were young last year, but it’s been a long time since this was a good offensive team and don’t know that the defense can get them over 8 wins.
Big Ten
Buying: Illinois, again
See 2014 notes. For the second straight year they have a 50/50 shot at a bowl game. And they don't have Beckman. Congrats Illini fans?
Selling: Indiana, Wisconsin
See the MVP effect. Tevin Coleman is gone and who is going to generate the Indiana offense? Corey Clement will surely pile up the stats again, but there was a big gap between Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement in PPP and I can’t see the QB play making up the difference. The West is thoroughly mediocre but I have serious doubts about Wisconsin’s ability to stay above the fray.
Big 12
Buying: Nobody
Selling: West Virginia, kind of TCU
Like Virginia Tech, I don’t see how West Virginia is getting past 8 wins. I think TCU will be good, my season simulations have them as the 3rd most likely team to reach the playoff. The problem is that they are the least talented team in the top ten and despite massive productivity last season, I think Trevone Boykin is due for some serious regression. Definitely a chance I am wrong on TCU but I think they have the most downside risk of any of the major preseason contenders.
Pac 12
Buying: Oregon St
Here’s the MVP effect working in reverse. Sean Mannion was not good for the Beavers last year and now he is gone. A redistribution of the offense should bode well for Oregon St.
Selling: Utah
Michigan’s other Pac-12 opponent falls on the other side of the ledger. I don’t think Utah was as good as their record last year and another team who is going to fighting uphill in terms of talent for most of their schedule.
SEC
Buying: Auburn
Going back to the Malzahn well one more time. Elite talent, elite offensive scheme. 8.5 wins is very doable, even with a tough schedule.
Selling: Arkansas, kind of Texas A&M
Arkansas’s weird season last year has been well documented as several services have vastly overcorrected heading into 2015. Taking the over on 8 wins means you are predicting the Hogs to go at least 5-3 against the SEC West schedule. A&M has a weird setup. Like A&M there is a lot of potential and risk on the roster, I don’t think A&M win total is that far off (they’re the only team on this list where my pick is within 1.5 games of Vegas) but at +200 on the under, sign me up.
Playoff Predictions
Last year I brought in one of my favorite heuristics: your national champion will be on the short list of most talented, experienced rosters. It is now 11 straight years that the national championship has ranked in the top 10 for roster talent (recruiting rankings adjusted for age) and 9 of 11 where the winner has been top 4 on at least one side of the ball. Last season OSU paid at 25/1 by checking in at #4 overall and top 4 on offense.
Here are this year’s top 10 with Top 4 O/D noted.
- Ohio St (O/D)
- Michigan (O/D)
- Alabama (D)
- USC (O)
- Auburn (O)
- Florida St (D)
- Florida
- LSU
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
My season simulations have Baylor, TCU, Oregon and Michigan St all with good shots at making the playoff (and odds much higher than several of the teams on this list). It’s not impossible that one of those four wins it all, but it would be the first time in a long time that it’s happened.
Michigan
Will this one simple trick turn your under achieving team into a contender?
My model loves talented, under-achieving teams (see Texas, Michigan) and it has had some of its biggest misses on teams like this. Michigan will be a big test this season. There are two general ways it can go, depending on what your underlying opinion of the team is.
1. Brady Hoke was a terrible evaluator and developer of talent and the talent Michigan has on paper is a mirage and it’s going to take a couple years to get back on top.
2. Brady Hoke was just a terrible coach and the talent on roster is there, but as yet untapped, especially on offense. It’s less about a Harbaugh turnaround than it is about a loss of Hoke and anything from Harbaugh is gravy this year.
I tend to side with #2. It’s hard to believe that all the talent on the roster were misses. Add to that the defense was pretty good already and you have an opportunity waiting to be exploited and the perfect coach to do so. All preseason predictions tend to take last year’s record as status quo, adjust for the general consensus of returners versus departures and everyone ends up in roughly the spot they started it, adjusting for maybe a game or two in the standing.
If there is ever a case to throw out last year’s record as a starting point it’s this situation. A veteran team, low hanging fruit on turnovers and special teams, a proven defense and an offense that has talent but not production and a coach who has excelled on that side of the ball.
Put me down for 9 wins and a 1-1 record against Michigan State and Ohio State. It’s optimism, it’s the model, it’s the hope that #4 will get decent quarterbacking out of the team and the rest of the team can showcase the talent and experience they have on paper.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
The return of the Mathlete! Woo!
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
Wasn't Michigan also unusually experienced in 2011? Really hoping that x-factor comes into play again as a lot of talented young guys round into upperclassman form under Harbaugh.
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September 2nd, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
Offense and Defense in the Top 10 in roster talent
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
It's actually offense and defense in the Top 4 of roster talent (hence only 4 O's and 4 D's total)
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
Scratch that, TOP FOUR(!)
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
Has someone photoshopped Jim Harbaugh's head on a UFO yet? because I want to believe.
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^
Ha, just beat me to it
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
MATH AND FOOTBALL. THAT'S WHAT MICHIGAN DOES
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
I don't think you're going to find analysis like this on RCMB or 11 Warriors
September 2nd, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
Vince Vaughn's stance and look is so under rated during this scene. I always laugh audibly when I see it.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
Is that supposed to be Michigan State at #2 in the top ten, or are you REALLY high on us?
EDIT: I see now, that's top ranking in terms of on-paper talent, not a predictor of results for this year.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
Re #1: This is a recurring meme among rival fans and even many uninformed Michigan fans. But it is also a fallacy. If Hoke is a terrible evaluator of talent, you would have to leve the same accusation at other coaches such as Urban Meyer, Mark Dantonio, Nick Saban and others whom Hoke beat for many of his recruits.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
I'll give you Dantonio, but Alabama offers to everybody they think is good. It's such a churn-and-burn outfit over there that all a Bama offer means is that you're at least a consensus 3-star and not much else.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
Wait...is Michigan really top 4 for roster talent in offense and defense?
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
This surprised me, too, but I think the model accounts for experience, so a senior four-star is worth more than a freshman five-star. We are old all over the place this year, which you'd hope bodes well.
Bless you and your four children, Mathlete.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
Yeah, even factoring that in, I would have guessed we're like, top 10 defense and top 20 offense on talent. I guess all the losing makes you forget about all the recruiting wins.
September 2nd, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
I think he forgot to type the St. behind Michigan. The Mathlete may be a Michigan fan, but I don't think he's crazy.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
if the Maize and Blue have the season I'm hoping then the credit goes to coach Harbaugh and staff. I think that the qb will be the biggest key.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
Does this model account for coaches at all? Mathlete mentions the effect of Narduzzi at Pitt and the (positive) loss of Beckman in Illinois. But I'm not sure how that could be built into any kind of model, unless you're just taking "coaching turnover" as a kind of neutral metric or making value judgments of coaching upgrades.
There seemed to be significant coaching turnover with Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all changing HC in conference, plus Oregon State on M's OoC schedule.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
Makes me feel a bit better about the Michigan Kool-Aid binge that I am presently riding. Great work
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
Glad I'm not the only one thinking people are really overrating Utah. 5-2 in one possession games with losses of key playmakers screams regression to me.
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
Yes. Yes. Yes. Get these kids to execute consistently and let the good times roll!
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
One of my favorite posts of the year. Stop popping out kids so you can do it again in 2016, thanks!
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. We at least have evidence of some roster misses in the form of Harbaugh's efforts to fill the voids -- QB in particular. He'd have brought in more QBs just for competition's sake, but if Harbaugh was so confident in Morris I doubt he'd have brought in quite as many as he did. Evidence so far is that Morris is a rocket arm and not much else. Yes, he may yet prove his naysayers wrong, I certainly hope he does, but until he does, future potential doesn't count as a rebuttal for his performance thus far. We've also seen newcomers at punter and cornerback, and he's moved half the team to tight end. You don't see those kinds of moves if the HC thought he could fix what was already there.
On the flip side, our OL, RBs and receivers have badly underperformed (relative to the hype) so far and no one's been in a hurry to replace them, which tells me the coaches think they can fix what ails them -- i.e., they probably don't see it as a talent deficiency.
September 2nd, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
Morris should really be a redshirt sophomore this year. After missing his senior year of high school, he certainly should have been redshirted. Instead, he was neither redshirted nor developed. I hope that by next year Harbaugh will have him to where he is actually very good.
Everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that Harbaugh ought to be able to make Jake Rudock much better than he was last year for all of this season, with constant improvement as the year goes on. Rudock was good last year. I have high hopes that he will be EXCELLENT this year, particularly by the time we get to the MSU game.
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
1. Brady Hoke was a terrible evaluator and developer of talent and the talent Michigan has on paper is a mirage and it’s going to take a couple years to get back on top.
2. Brady Hoke was just a terrible coach and the talent on roster is there, but as yet untapped, especially on offense. It’s less about a Harbaugh turnaround than it is about a loss of Hoke and anything from Harbaugh is gravy this year.
No doubt the truth lies somewhere in between, but I've been tempted to lean toward more of #2 myself. It wasn't just Hoke, but a couple of assistants IMO also dragged us down from what we were capable of doing. I think we're going to see noticeable differences in the play of the O-line, secondary, and running backs based largely on the fact that we got rid of the people coaching those positions (I think Manning is a solid LB or RB coach, but DBs not so much.) The fact that we've brought in quality assistants to replace them is just icing on the cake. Having Harbaugh around to help the QB's is a big plus as well.
For me, it really is more a question of how quickly this team can come together than a question of whether or not it happens. This is going to be a very good team by November (barring some bad health luck at a couple key positions, but a lot of teams can say the same.) Will they be good enough starting tomorrow to carry a good record into November? That's where I'm uncertain.
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
it'll be interesting to see if Chavis can turn the A&M defense into a decent unit. They seem to always have plenty of firepower on offense but the defense has been a total sieve.
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
a rigorous defense of my gut-feeling, that Michigan is being seriously under-rated this year. Now let's hope the boys go out and make us both look good.
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
Let's ask Harbaugh if he thinks these are all "buys".
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
I will be truly happy if the special teams are actually special (not "special" as we have seen)
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^
on who to offer, but how much of the talent evaluation do they do? I expect Harbaugh to rely on his assistants for most of that work on defense and OL, at least.
September 2nd, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
Team dynamics - previous success has come with a dominant defense and suspect offense. This year is the flip - Cook and line have experience while breaking in a young defense. Will they succeed with this new playing style?
Experience - there is some of it on the offense at line and QB. But there are new WRs and RB needing to step up. And much of the defense outside a few spots on the line will be a complete replacement. Can they learn quickly to match previous levels of success?
Coach affect - again, the formula was a strong defense as the base of everything else. They lost the leader on that side of the ball. Do people really not give Narduzzi enough credit that they expect no drop off with his departure?! Can they be as successful with a new defensive coach and style?
I think these are HUGE question marks for a supposed Top 5 team. It isn't like an Oregon or Bama where the coaching staff stays intact at the teaching positions and there is a crazy influx of 5 star talent. This is a team built on teaching and developing lesser talent. When all of these things change the pendulum can swing the other way very quickly.
September 2nd, 2015 at 5:20 PM ^
You are crazy AND a state hater.
September 2nd, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
No way does Michigan make the playoff with Jake Rudock or Shane Morris as their QB choices.
They haven't soaked up enough Harbaughness.
September 2nd, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
I am on board with 9 wins. All of the models out there say 7.7-ish wins, and do not take into account the impact of the coaching changes. I would say that Harbaugh & Co. are worth an extra win, maybe more.
My prediction is 8.7 wins. I believe 7 wins is far less likely than 9, but more likely than 10 because of the tough OOC schedule. Here's my best guesstimate:
- 9 wins - 45% chance
- 8 wins - 30% chance
- 7 wins - 13% chance
- 10 wins - 12% chance
All other regular season win totals would be outliers.
September 2nd, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
Including a loss to one of our rivals. Your model gives me even more optimism! 37-13 tomorrow to start with a BIG victory.
September 2nd, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^
This seems unlikely to me. Is it just based on them backing into the SEC championship game because of a weak east, and then lucking out a win against Alabama or whoever from the west, under the general assumption that any SEC champ is going to the playoffs?
September 2nd, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
of the MGoblog season!
Thanks for the material this week guys.
GO BLUE!
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:16 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
Whatever model is predicting 9 wins for Texas must either be broken or there's operator error involved. They have two almost guaranteed losses in games at Baylor and TCU and probable losses at ND and to OKlahoma plus a very difficult on their home turf West Virginia. They'll likely lose 2 of those 3. They do have OSU, KSU, and Texas Tech at home, but those could all prove difficult and I see a 2-1 record more likely than 3-0 against those teams.
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:46 PM ^
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