Attrition Watch: April, 2014 Edition
With Signing Day and spring practice in the rearview mirror, Michigan's roster should remain basically intact until fall and possibly beyond. With the media cottoning on to the enormous hole in the roster created by the last Rodriguez and hybrid Rodriguez/Hoke/Process classes, it's time to update Attrition Watch.
2009
A last look at Rodriguez's first full class. Starter-level contributors are italicized; (sometimes projected) NFL draft picks bolded.
Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan
Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne, Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons
Didn't Take Fifth Year(1): Mike Jones.
Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell
Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty
Injury (1): Teric Jones
Left Football: N/A
This class lost a little bit of its luster every time Toussaint tried to pick up a blitz, but this is still a class you can do excellent things with as long as you surround it with other talent. It features two bookend NFL tackles, the season receiving yardage record-holder, Denard Robinson(!), and six to eight other important contributors. Your 11-2 blip is built around these guys.
2010
DOOOOOOOOOOM! Your Freep class.
Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal
Enrolled (3): Devin Gardner, Jake Ryan, Will Hagerup
Did Not Take Fifth Year(2): Richard Ash, Jordan Paskorz
Played Out Eligibility(4): Jeremy Jackson, Drew Dileo, Jibreel Black, Courtney Avery.
Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal
Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones
Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace
Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins
Nothing miserably bad has happened to this already miserably bad class since August. Will Hagerup has hung on to a roster spot; Ash departed after getting his degree, as did Paskorz. That leaves three of 27 players on the roster, including the starting QB and most dynamic player the defense has.
That is of course horrendous, and about 80% of the blame should be heaped upon Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez struck out on tight ends and OL left and right during this period, compounding that issue with some horrible talent evaluation—of the guys who left early, only Ray Vinopal has made any kind of impact at a BCS school.
Baumgardner's article comes with a depressing Big Ten retention rate chart showing Michigan at the bottom at 26%; three teams are tied at 40% for next worst: Minnesota (coaching change), Penn State (holistic program implosion), and Indiana (coaching change, is Indiana). No one else has lost more than half their class; Northwestern leads the way at 82% with MSU second.
2011
Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada
This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.
Enrolled (11): Justice Hayes(H), Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)
*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]
Transferred for PT (2): Tamani Carter(H), Thomas Rawls(H).
Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones
Injury (2): Antonio Poole(H), Chris Bryant.
Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.
Rawls and Bryant are added to the dead list here; the Bryant departure leaves the OL count from the 2010 and 2011 classes at a whopping one, Jack Miller. Rawls was a signing-day reach who represented Peak Fred Jackson as Michigan scrambled after the process; Bryant was a three/four star borderline OL who needed to take a lot of weight off, much like Posada. Posada showed up for a cup of coffee; Bryant couldn't remain healthy enough to stay on the field, though he did start a few games in the middle of last year.
While this class is better than its predecessor it represents the bulk of the seniors on the roster. That's a problem when you've only got 11 of them and one is an offensive lineman. An attrition rate of 45% that could still go up is middling at best, something Michigan could not afford after the 2010 crater.
2012
Redshirt sophomores and juniors.
Funchess, Henry, Kalis
Enrolled: Dennis Norfleet, Sione Houma, Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Devin Funchess, AJ Williams, Kyle Kalis, Blake Bars, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Ondre Pipkins, Willie Henry, Matt Godin, Mario Ojemudia, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross, Terry Richardson, Jarrod Wilson, Allen Gant, Jeremy Clark.
Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.
Michigan still has all but one guy from Hoke's first class on the roster. The departure, Kaleb Ringer, had microfracture surgery and transferred to a lower level to play.
At this point there have to be a couple guys teetering on the edge of a transfer because they can't get on the two-deep—that kind of attrition is the sign of a healthy program, not a diseased one. It's worth noting that was Michigan super, super paranoid about bringing in anyone who looked like an academic risk in this class. That seemed like a reaction to the previous two recruiting efforts; now it appears to be just their standard.
2013
Enrolled: 27 of 27.
Nobody from Hoke's second class has exited after one year.
2014
Enrolled: 7 of 16 with the rest pending. There haven't been any whispers of academic issues except with kids Michigan ends up not getting, so it's likely the class arrives intact.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
Would love the obvious picks (Harbaugh brothers or Les) but I would also consider a David Shaw ( If he would leave where he graduated from), Jim Mora would be excellent IMO or even be bold and hire an excellent DC that is primed to be a great head coach. maybe even one from the enemy's camp if you know what i mean. I however believe UM could get a very good to great coach because of the resources as long as the Michigan man BS doesn't hinder the process.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
You can throw a ton of money at them, top 5 money, those guys aren't coming. That's the point. Regardless of "Michigan Man" or not, you just listed some people you'd "consider", and they aren't even coming to Michigan.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
For one can't predict the future but you know for sure they won't come so ok.
You can't fire Hoke to bring in a "hot" coordinator without signaling a full-scale rebuilding project. You would need someone who can big time to justify the move. Narduzzi isn't that guy.
IMO, the only ways Hoke fails to see 2015 is if either the bottom falls out this year and he clearly loses control, or if Brandon were able to secure Jim Harbaugh or someone of similar stature behind the scenes before he fired Hoke. You don't fire Hoke just to fire Hoke without someone ready to take the position.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
April 29th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^
I have played football at the high school level and i know the sport pretty damn well and just because you have a coaching change does not mean you will not win on the contrary there have been several programs who changed coaches and won. I'm tired of the wait until next year approach but if you are happy with it God bless you.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
And ran out of breath by the time it was done; that was an impressive run on. But I think you can do better. God bless you.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
A sports blog not an essay writing contest. God bless you!
Are we now imagining that board posters are sneezing after every reply?
April 29th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^
Well, I'm an NFL Hall of Famer, and I say that if you haven't not never had a coaching change then you'll not necesssary not lose and win. So there.
NFL Hall of Fame and I promote you, turd, to be my second-in-command due entirely to the wisdom of this post.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:16 PM ^
High School football you say?
April 29th, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
When do we start doubting Hoke and his staff to develop players? While his talent level was terrible when he got here, he has recruited several high ranking classes in three years. Which one of "his guys" is markedly better now then when they stepped on campus?
April 29th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
What with most of what we've seen out of his classes so far have been from RS FR and true FR with the occasional SO that appeared out of necessity (Funchess and Williams both would redshirt almost under any other circumstance, for instance).
But, even from his first class, you can't deny the development of guys like Taylor and Clark. I mean, I guess you can, but that certainly not the truth of the matter. Many of the other guys are OL/DL in classes that heavily focused on those areas out of need. They really aren't expected to be very good this early at positions that require the most attention to technique and strength.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
I agree and I've been saying since 2012 that this roster won't begin fill out with upperclassmen until 2015. I've always been of the opinion that you cannot fully judge a coach until his recruits are allowed to go through the program. The reality is that were still probably 1 year away from that. I'm not saying that we won't see development this year or that they will be terrible but this roster was so disjointed for a long time and it is just now, 2014, starting to take shape.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
Reality is that coaches very seldom get 5 years anymore to build a program.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
I'm sure the staff is developing players as well as any other top flight program. We have high level coaches who knwo how to develop guys. It's not like this is some brand new staff, but the lack of "wow" players in that 1st 50+ guys in Hoke's 1st 2 classes is disappointing. I put that on the talent identification process.
I'm a guy always preaching patience but with the playing time available at several positions you would have hoped a few guys would have taken control of the position or showed flashes that got you excited when that person filled out or matured etc..
The number of players on the current roster that I have a reasonable expectation that they could be drafted in the 1st 2 rounds of the NFL draft from those 50 are pretty thin. Those kind of players like Lewan usually show themselves early on. these guys are still young so they could turn out great but if they were that good they should have had shown us more. Based on what we saw last year
QB- Havent had a chance to play with Gardner starting.
RB- None
TE-Butt showed flashes, but got hurt(damn it)
OL- None. With all the upheaval I wish we knew of 1 guy who was a lock to start due to his play last year.
WR- Funchess is great but I'm not sure what he would be projected at for the pros. Should be an interesting year.
DL- Maybe someone like Henry or Taco could emerge this year but nothing yet.
OLB- Ross I thought was headed that way, but appeared to regress. Gideon?
DB- I like Lewis and Stribling but it's too soon to tell.
Overall I think last years class is showing more hope than the previous class.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
recruiting class to fall apart because of last years records. A lot of people say that Michigan settled for a mediocre coach. I'm not saying that is your feeling necessarily but how can you then expect him to come in and recruit 5 star type players immediately when he came in off of 3 crappy years?
I look at the roster and see a lot of young talent that needs time to develop and think we will see a step forward in 2014. I think he has done a great job of recruiting and it seems to keep getting better.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
Which is the operative word Hoke doesn't turn this ship around the recruiting which has already tailed off from when he first started will get worse. How bad does it have to be to realize it is not working with a particular coach is probably the opinion of some.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^
April 29th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
one of them is not even on campus yet for the most part. I'm not sure how blueball could count that class.
People who want to give Hoke such a short leash should realize that although the talent level should be there for a new coach, there is always attrition when a new coach comes in. Is that really what you want? The 2009 and 2010 classes were toxic dumps with a few exceptions. Any coach would have had issues overcoming the void in overall talent.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^
I couldn't agree more. Although i can't stand OSU i wish that our fanbase held our football program to the same standards as far as on the field production.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
I have no problem holding the coaching staff accountable. But I absolutely insist that we give them a few years to rebuild first, then fire 'em if they aren't getting the job done.
I'm not sure RR was the best for Michigan but I definitely don't want his replacement to be run out of town before he even has a chance to field a decent team. And I don't want to be in a 20 year cycle of rebuilding like Notre Dame.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^
Points although ND who i just loathe did end up with the right choice who has won everywhere he has been and has already made a MNC game. 20 years is still too long to find the right guy i agree.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
This, so hard.
People jumped on Rich Rod too quickly, and it's driving me crazy to see the same thing happening with Hoke. Building programs takes time, especially when you're trying to reshape the roster as fundamentally as these guys were. I'm expecting a pretty mediocre season in 2014, followed by really good ones in 2015 and 2016. I just hope that the Michigan fan base can keep from crapping all over itself and throwing the shit around if we see something like 8-5 this year.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
A big difference is that RR immediately installed "his system" without regard for the lack of proper players to run it. He didn't make an attempt to meld systems (as the Hoke crew has tried, though sometimes without success) and it yielded the 3-9 season. That's why his timeline to turn it around (or get fired) was short. Had he won 11 games his first year, folks would have tolerated a couple bad years as he rebuilt the roster to fit his system.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
The difference of course being that Hoke inherited a fully intact offense while Rodriguez inherited one that had lost nearly every single player from the year before.
Copied/Pasted from TurgFurguson above:
I just looked this up on Rivals. If I did it right, here are Lloyd's last few years:
2004 - #5 class overall, #3 in mean rating
2005 - #6 class overall, #10 in mean rating
2006 - #13 class overall, #6 in mean rating
2007 - #12 class overall, #10 in mean rating
Recruiting rankings don't tell the full story, but I have a really hard time with the "Lloyd stopped recruiting well" explanation. That's more than enough talent to win with.
Your last paragraph is hilarious given the content of the post you're commenting on.
That's what I copied/pasted (without edit). The point being that you claim RR "lost nearly every single player from the year before". While that's not true (and without getting into the "well, that guy left but wouldn't have left if..." discussion), the reality is that Carr recruited some strong classes prior to RR.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
Agree Turd but wouldnt you say a lot has to do with HOW we get to 8-5? I dont know about you but the 8-5 in 2012 felt a lot more than one game better than the 7-6 did last year. We lost five games that year to really good teams, lost them extremely close (for the most part) and had injuries. Disapointing year but it was pretty easy for me to rationalize it.
Last year however was different. Even the wins with the exception of ND seemed painful and much harder than they needed to be and our losses...oh God some of our losses sucked the very soul out of much of the fan base (I'm looking at you MSU & Penn State games). Then we get absolutely smoked by an average (at best) KSU team in a shitty bowl and it sure feels like 7-6 was much, much worse than the record would indicate.
So is 8-5 might be ok if it's the 2012 version of the record. If it's like last year however you can put me in the fan base section that will be "crapping all over themselves".
April 29th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
Last year's 7-6 felt more like 5-8 after "getting away with" Akron and UConn.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
My view on the Hoke years so far is that 2011 was better than expected, 2012 was what should have been expected (with that schedule), and 2013 was worse than expected. Even though the record has slipped, though, the roster points to an upward trajectory for the coming years. Unless 2014 is a true mess, I'm more than happy to see how this thing looks when the roster is truly together in 2015.
I will say, if for some reason hoke does get canned...the guy they hire is walking into a much better situation than what hoke walked into. The OL should be all grown up. The defense looks stacked. Good QB talent. This is why I think brandon brings back hoke. It's his guy. He basically had to rebuild the foundation (lines) from scratch. Might as well give him the benefit of the doubt for ONE more year.
I think we have to at least see how players develop this year before making any judgments about Hoke and staff's ability to develop players. Early returns are both good (2011) and bad (2013).
There is an assumption here that the 2010 class stunk because Rodriguez got crappy players, but the blame may just as easily belong with Hoke. Surely not all of it, but a good healthy dollup.
So far, the only productive Hoke recruit on the offensive side of the ball is Funchess. Across 3 classes that's rough. Compare with how productive Rodriguez guys were in their first 3 years... Not having a single competant OLmen last year is certainly a major disappointment from Hoke (and Borges). Not everyone is going to be ready to play at a high level as a RS Freshman, but SOMEONE should be when you bring in multiple highly regarded recruits.
Things look much better on Defense, as you'd expect.
So far, the only productive Hoke recruit on the offensive side of the ball is Funchess.
Mostly true (Butt being the other one), but at the same time who can you say honestly say should have been productive but wasn't because of lack of development?
You have still on the team on offense:
Hayes - Positional vagabond that never really found a place to shine
Miller - Redshirted. Low ceiling guy that started out of necessity and wasn't very good.
Norfleet - Locked down KO returner job, I'd call that productive
Houma - FB, people only notice you if you screw up
Darboh - Never targeted as FR (seemly by design as he was a pretty reliable run key), Injured SO
Chesson - Redshirted, contributed as RS FR with limited productivity
AJ Williams - Valid critique here of lack of player development
Kalis, Magnuson, Bars, Braden - all redshirted and started before OL are expected to reach potential or are developmental projects.
Morris - Stuck behind entrenched starter. Played a full game in the bowl and looked good, especially for true, non early enrollee freshman
Green - Came in overweight, OL issues dampened any late season improvement (still think he improved dramatically over 2013)
Dawson, Bosch, Kugler, LTT, Fox, Samuelson, Sypniewski - either redshirted or got thrown in during the great OL panic of 2013. No reasonable expectations to contribute by this point in their careers.
Jake Butt - Was productive, especially after Funchess at TE experiment ended
Dukes - redshirted
Smith - OL issues obsure evaluation. Still wrestled starting position from senior encumbent.
Hill - Redshirted
Jones - Redshirted
York - Redshirted
Out of that whole list, you can reasonably be disappointed in maybe Green, Williams and maybe that one solid OL hasn't emerged from the bunch.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
I got down voted for the above comment. ok.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
Comment about getting downvoted for this comment. I'm curious to see what happens.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^
Shouldn't have to agree with one another all the time. Everyone here loves Michigan in some form or fashion. Why downvote for opinions?
April 29th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
He's lost something like 60-70 points in less than hour. It'll be interesting to see if it ends.
April 29th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
I think defesively we have seen pretty good progression as a whole under Hoke. Between years 1and 2 there was a big dropoff on the d-line which caused the D to take a step back....but you are starting to see guys like Wormley and Henry make plays on the line, and Pipkins should be back too. The defense was pretty young the past 2 years, we are just lucky we had a couple safeties in Kovacs and Gordon who knew how to tackle pretty well in space or it could have been worse. This is the first year we have experience and depth at almost every position on defense. We just need to fill that hole left by Gordon and this could be a very good defense. Clearly Mattison has confidence in them if he is planning on doing a lot more man to man and blitzing.
The offense does scare me though, and it does fall almost totally on the offensive line. I blame Borges for stubborness last year because we all saw the OSU game in contrast to the others, but it is pretty undeniable the Rich Rod left a gaping hole in the O-line that we are just coming out of. Hopefully Nuss can gameplan around what we have. If he does, we will surely see some close games, but thiscould very well be a 10 win team. It almost all falls on the o-line and replaceing Gordon.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
I will always be excited for Michigan football. Will this team be championship contenders...probably not. Are there holes in the OL...of course. However, I don't think anyone on our schedule is a powerhouse so to speak. MSU will be good but not last year good. OSU will always be good but I'm sure they will have some problems as well. I can see this team going anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2.
My biggest hope is that progresion happens during the season no matter where they start at on week 1. I didn't see a lot of change from the beginning of the year vs. CMU and ND to the end of the year. You could argue they got worse.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
guarantees that this time next year we'll be discussing how Coach ABC will transform the team.
I think Hoke gets a 5th year barring a losing season. Brandon is too invested in Hoke and Brandon has already cited all of the excuses in his press release last year. RIghtly or wrongly, tThose excuses will be trotted out again until 2015.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
I knew we lost a lot of guys early from those last RR/first Hoke classes but wow, to see it all laid out is startling. Also did not realize this was Jake Ryan's last year. Makes me kind of sad.
April 29th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
Ryan is an absolute stud and i bet he is very productive in the pros. He's my second favorite player on the team behind Devin Funchess.
Comments