![Zach Edey challenges a layup by Michigan's Dug McDaniel](/sites/default/files/styles/850xn/public/2024-02/52650934272_80d6880c57_o_0.jpg.webp?itok=2d7A-4ds)
Hoops Preview: Purdue 2023-24 #2
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #110 Michigan (8-19, 3-13 B10) vs #2 Purdue (24-3, 13-3 B10) |
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WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
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WHEN | 2:00 PM Sunday | |
THE LINE | Kenpom: PU-13 Torvik: PU-13 |
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TELEVISION | CBS (streaming link) |
THE OVERVIEW
With Dug McDaniel serving the first game of his six-game road suspension, Michigan went to Mackey Arena and actually gave the Boilermakers a hard time. Yes it a 99-67 blowout, but hear me out: the Boilermakers had to shoot 67% outside the arc, collect more than their share of bounces, and get Tarris Reed removed from the game early by a series of phantom calls to avoid the kind of 76-72 win with the dreck of the Big Ten that could raise a question in the press conference.
That question would have been "Why do you think Edey was held to just 16 points?" and the answer is Tarris Reed was planting like an offensive lineman and refusing to let the Kenpom Player of the Year walk through him to the rim.
Since Purdue beat Michigan by 32 points in their last meeting things have gone how you'd expect. The Boilers have a road loss at Ohio State (also a Sunday night on CBS) and an OT win at home over Northwestern against six more comfortable victories. Michigan's dropped another 40 spots in Kenpom, with one close home victory over Wisconsin and eight double-digit losses, played five more road games without their best player, and lost their next best player to season-ending wrist surgery.
So it's not, like, IMPOSSIBLE, if Reed can hang in there again, and gets a home-flavored whistle, and you add Dug McDaniel, and the Boilermaker guards go cold from outside, and Will Tschetter is back from the flu, and you flip the luck, that Michigan stays close enough to blow an upset bid at the end. Yes, Olivier Nkamhoua's Michigan career is over, but it's not like Tray Jackson (who missed the first Purdue game with a concussion and broken nose) can't repeat his fellow transfer's performance, IE missing 4/5 open threes and getting bowled over defensively.
What I mean is yes, on paper this looks like a free Q3 road win for the 1-seed. But if you squint hard enough, you can see a path to the kind of game where the nation's sickos are tuning in just in time for Bill Raftery to cry "Onions!" on a Tschetter triple that puts Michigan up seven at the Under-4 timeout, and CBS can actually recoup some advertising money before the inevitable 12-2 collapse.
[Hit THE JUMP for links to the last, still-relevant preview.]
THE US
My graphic [click to embiggen]:
Hard to tell how much the flu is going to hold guys out—Tschetter was the only one to miss the Northwestern game from it.
THE LINEUP CARD
My graphic [click for big]:
They're healthy.
THE THEM
Chest up. [Campredon]
I refer you to the last Purdue preview for probably my most extensive analysis all year. Updates:
Other than canning his first career triple vs Indiana, Zach Edey has continued to be as Edey as ever. He leads the nation in fouls drawn, is up to 4th in ORebs, 18th in true shooting%, and 16th in using up the most possessions. Even the shocking Ohio State loss followed the script that tournament teams have used against Purdue for years: force the center into a lot of turnovers and stress the athleticism of the guards with a more mobile backcourt. Ohio State also fired their coach a few days before it.
Purdue hasn't changed much since we saw them a month ago, except PG Braden Smith has been looking to shoot more from outside instead of pulling to down and driving for a pass. Correspondingly his 3PA rate is up 20%, his ORtg has gone up 4 points, and Torvik has him up from 3.7 (very good) in PORPAGATU to 4.4 (excellent). That's taking a bit of usage from the wings, not Edey.
THE TEMPO FREE
Four factors:
In case the one weak spot wasn't apparent before, maybe it's more obvious now?
THE KEYS
[Campredon]
Sweaty Reed. Nobody saw the gutsy performance at Mackey, and nobody's going to remember a gutsy, flu-addled performance at Welsch-Ryan Arena that almost upset a Northwestern team headed for a 9-seed, but a gutsy, flu-addled performance against Zach Edey on CBS might give us something to preview next year besides desolation.
Make Edey dribble. The Blueprint. Not saying it's easy, but if you *can* deny him touches inside, you give yourself a chance to poke it away.
Win the possession battle. Purdue's one of the worst teams at causing turnovers, and is a little susceptible to them. Edey's going to make up for that with offensive rebounds, but if I told you there's a way to neutralize the effect of Edey's work on the glass you'd take it right?
Dug Dug Go! The other half of The Blueprint is out-guarding Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer with a speedy gnat they can't keep up with. Which we have.
Shoot 67% from the floor, collect every weird bounce, and get a ton of home cookin'. Sometimes Lady Randomness gives Purdue a 20-point cushion on a game they're gonna with by 12 anyways; sometimes it goes the other way. Just sayin'.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Purdue by 13.
February 24th, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^
This is the type of insane previews I do enjoy in a lost season.
February 24th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
I'm not sure I can remember as complete a narrative of a Michigan basketball game BEFORE the game.
Go Blue! Shock the world.
February 24th, 2024 at 12:42 PM ^
Double team Edey and play a four guard lineup OH SHIT we can't.
February 24th, 2024 at 1:07 PM ^
Michigan has an 8-0 edge over Purdue in… cyans. Sigh. I’d give Michigan another cyan for Dug’s defense. He tries, he’s just so physically overwhelmed by most players that he’s a net negative on that side of the court.
I don’t know how much credence to give these defensive rating stats, but they agree with my impression.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/men/2024.html
GW3 is worst among contributors at 119. Llewellyn is at 118.8, Tschetter 118, TWill is 117 and Dug is 116. Only Tarris is not awful defensively per that site.
February 24th, 2024 at 3:47 PM ^
Are the rumors that Michigan is going to break out the Cyan jerseys true?
Dug already wears the Cyan shoes. Maybe he feels left out.
February 24th, 2024 at 1:24 PM ^
Betting against Michigan basketball is free money.
February 24th, 2024 at 5:01 PM ^
This is a Jim Carey "so there is a chance" type game but only to cover the first half spread....PU by 19 in the end.
February 24th, 2024 at 1:37 PM ^
What I mean is yes, on paper this looks like a free Q3 road win for the 1-seed. But if you squint hard enough, you can see a path to the kind of game where the nation's sickos are tuning in just in time for Bill Raftery to cry "Onions!" on a Tschetter triple that puts Michigan up seven at the Under-4 timeout, and CBS can actually recoup some advertising money before the inevitable 12-2 collapse.
Jesus, if that isn't the most quintessential Michigan basketball paragraph I've ever read...
February 24th, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^
"... Tarris Reed was planting like an offensive lineman ..."
Make it happen, Sherrone (and Grant Newsome). Make it happen.
February 24th, 2024 at 2:20 PM ^
Purdue by 13.
I'm loving your (and KenPom's) optimism.
February 24th, 2024 at 3:53 PM ^
I doubt KenPom takes Nkamhoua's injury into account, and probably underweights the 2024 nosedive.
I don't think Vegas has set a line yet, but I would guess it'll be in the neighborhood of +20 or more.
February 24th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Purdue by 13.
To paraphrase The Offspring, I asked for a 13, but they won by 31
February 24th, 2024 at 4:42 PM ^
#110 at #2
In case you’ve wondered what it looks like when Iowa football’s offense scrimmages against their defense.
February 24th, 2024 at 6:11 PM ^
Since Purdue is on the road, this would be a Quad 2 win for Purdue. If Michigan keeps losing, it could be a Quad 3 by selection sunday.
February 24th, 2024 at 10:58 PM ^
That's the joke dot gif
February 24th, 2024 at 6:17 PM ^
Howard year 2 - Elite Eight
Howard year 3 - Sweet Sixteen
Howard year 4 - NIT second round
Howard year 5 - May end up the worst team since 1981-82 season.
Clearly progression is happening if the goal is to crater Michigan basketball.
**NOTE** tournament was canceled Howard's first season.
February 24th, 2024 at 6:26 PM ^
Do we really have to do this?
February 24th, 2024 at 7:57 PM ^
Prediction? Pain.
February 24th, 2024 at 9:17 PM ^
This has to be a record for cyan. I do not even remember our worst opponents we played in football have that much cyan.
February 24th, 2024 at 11:12 PM ^
BPONE has switched sports.
February 25th, 2024 at 9:44 AM ^
Game is at Crisler Arena? Longing for the old days?
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