Stings like hell to type this: Ohio St still has reasonable chance of reaching CFP

OSU is out...stop it.

Also, OSU isn't automatically jumping Washington if they lose. Washington is 12-0 and will have a win over the 12-1 Pac-12 Champs. That's better than any win OSU has.

So, you think OSU has a "fair" chance of making it in. You argue (correctly) that UM, the winner of Bama-Georgia, and the winner of OR-Wash all have spots. That leaves one spot. 

You then make the assumption that Wash losing to OR would automatically bump OSU ahead of Wash, which seems crazy to me. Nevertheless, for OSU to get in they would need three separate events to happen: Texas losing, FSU losing, and Wash getting bumped below OSU after a loss. Let's say that Wash getting bumped below OSU after a loss to Oregon is a 50-50 proposition. You would then need two other independent events to happen, neither of which are close to being 50-50. Texas is currently -520 to beat Ok State. That means their odds of losing are about 16%. Likewise, FSU is -172 to beat Louisville. That means their odds of losing are about 36%. Multiply those three probabilities together to get to OSU's odds of getting in the CFP under your own scenario, and there is a 2.9% chance. 

So, depending on what you mean by "fair," OSU does not have much of a chance at all of getting in. It is "possible" but highly, highly unlikely. 

They had a much stronger chance last night, but every team that needed to win won.

Their chances are extremely slim.  Alabama, Georgia, Texas, FSU, Oregon, and UW have a chance over OSU.

And, meeting OSU again in a championship game or playoffs is extremely likely in the future.

CFB has significantly changed, and so does arcane rules like no headsets in helmets.

Strongly disagree. I think they have almost no chance.

Georgia and UM are in. I predict both will be 13-0. 
 

11-2 Bama is out. 
 

I think two of 12-1 or 13-0 Oregon, UW, UT, and FSU get in. That cuts OSU out. I don’t think you can put in 11-1 over any 12-1 team period. 

Vegas has their odds at 3%
 

they need Texas (a 12.5 point favorite) to lose

AND 

Florida state (a 5 point favorite) to lose 

AND

Alabama (a 5 point underdog) to lose

It’s very, VERY unlikely they can back in again

There is a chance, but I wouldn't describe it as likely or reasonable.

I will just assume the conference will just ‘mob rule’ there way into letting osu in.

Don't care, we won The Game.  That's cool if they want to go lose to Georgia again.

Can we hold off on these threads until at least the CFP rankings come out? We have no idea just how far Ohio is falling and where other teams are just yet. 

If all that happens, OSU is in.  Feels like not better than about a one in five chance of that.

Historically OSU has snuck in, but you’ll have:

1)Michigan

2) Winner of SEC game 

3) Winner of PAC 12 game 

Then the #4 spot will be available only if Texas AND FSU both lose. Even then, you’ll have some strong arguments for a couple other one-loss teams. 

Really doubt Texas loses. Also a decent chance FSU wins, or Alabama wins. This seems like an unlikely scenario  

They’re going to face a massive uphill battle, even moreso than last year. 

FSU could potentially lose next weekend, but then you’d have to ask the question of whether or not Louisville deserves to move ahead of OSU. And I think they’d have a case for it. Louisville does have a bad loss, but they’d have a better win than anything on OSU’s résumé, they have an extra game, and they’d be a conference champion. 

Oklahoma State beating Texas is possible but probably not likely. The Pac-12 title game is a wash, because whoever wins that game will move ahead of OSU.

And then for the SEC title game, I truly have no idea who would win that game. This time yesterday I would’ve said Georgia would’ve clubbed Alabama, but Georgia is so wildly inconsistent this year. All the same, as long as they don’t get blown out by Alabama, I have a hard time seeing OSU move ahead of them, regardless.

I can see them get in. It's not the most likely scenario but also far from the least likely scenario. It will take a lot to go their way. Texas needs to lose, FSU needs to lose, Georgia needs to win. And even then it's not a guarantee, but it's hardly impossible.

The thing with putting OSU in over FSU, Texas, Bama, and/or Washington/Oregon is that they’d be rewarding osu for not having to play the extra game. The committee often ignores this problem though and just puts in the team with one loss that passes the eye test. In other words, we should be cheering for teams that have looked good to end with 1 loss: Oregon, Alabama, Texas, etc. 

shuttup

How aren’t we 1?

I think the important thing to think about is not that Ohio State has a chance to make the CFP (they have a slim one), but this:

If Michigan loses to Iowa, Michigan may not make the playoffs.

Beat Iowa.

The only thing better than kicking the shit out of The Ohio once a season would be kicking the shit out of The Ohio twice a season.

The playoff committee is praying for wins from UGA, UM, UW, and FlaSt.  That would make their job very easy.

The fuck is this shit?

🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡