Heat Check: Hoops Edition
In what I intend to be a weekly/bi-weekly column, this piece aims to expand on trends for the basketball team relative to season expectations (in this case) or progression/regression as compared to prior weeks.
In short, you can use this analysis as sort of a stock report for the hoops squad in terms of individual + team performance, sets and lineups.
Blazing Hot
Tarris Reed, Destroyer of Worlds. The sophomore big was one of the few bright spots defensively last season, providing quality rim-protection and flashing the ability to switch on the perimeter in a limited role as a freshman.
But I'm not sure anyone could anticipate the type of one-man wrecking crew we witnessed versus St. John's. Here's 18 seconds of torture chamber defense courtesy of Mr. Reed.
That is a 6'10/265 human being blitzing a ballscreen, navigating around an additional ballscreen before a full-on switch against a guard, beating said guard to the spot + forcing the errant pass, closing out under control before beating said guard to the spot yet again and finally flipping the hips and perfectly contesting a stepback to force a near airball.
And the impact wasn't limited to switchability. The off-ball awareness + rim protection was also at a high level.
First, Reed effectively "checks two" by showing at screen level + recovering to the roll-man in a nano-second. SJU then goes to their second read - which is a post-entry to Soriano. Tarris denies that option with 3/4 defense and uses his length to preclude the pass. Sim Wilcher then drives baseline (this is intentional by Burnett, you want to shade to help), and look at Reed completely discard Soriano and block Wilcher's shot. Multiple efforts, disruption and a turnover. Doesn't get much better than that.
Dug McDaniel, Pressure Breaker. St. John's attempted to apply various iterations of a full-court press against the Wolverine floor general to no avail.
Duggie McBuckets defeated it with ease repeatedly. Flying down the court leaving SJU defenders in the dust on the way to the rim. SJU may not be a world-beater, but I'm inclined to think Dug's straight-line speed in the open court is independent of competition level. Curious to see if conference foes attempt to pick him up full court.
Dug's ability to defeat aggressive POA defense also extended to half-court scenarios. Here, SJU blows up the possession by icing Michigan's ballscreen action, but McDaniel's ability to make something happen off-script made that moot. He snakes through Wilcher/Soriano and finds Tray Jackson for an easy dunk after a timely cut. You can't teach speed.
[AFTER THE JUMP, we have movement shooters?]
Warm
Movement shooting. This has been a sticking point for a few years since I did a deep-dive on Caleb Houstan essentially being limited to a "go stand in the corner" role. Having guys that can bury triples off screens is a luxury at any level of basketball, but that skillset is at a particular premium for the college game with limited spacing and the lack of athletic shot-creators to collapse the opposing defense. It's early and the sample is extremely small, but early returns are promising.
The Wolverines started the game with a brilliant Ram Exit set that saw Nimari Burnett knock down a movement triple. First, Nimari sets a Ram screen (an off-ball screen that frees up a big to then set a ballscreen for the ballhandler) for Tarris. Reed sets a ballscreen for Dug as Nkamhoua simultaneously sets an exit screen for Burnett that absolutely erased two SJU defenders. Dug makes the right read and delivers a precision pass. This is where scheme/processing/execution all meet.
Terrance Williams then joins the party on this BLOB Floppy-like action. We have the inbound pass to Olivier as Tschetter ducks-in as window dressing. Nkamhoua then dishes it to McDaniel up top with Burnett, Tschetter and Olivier all setting screens to free up TWill for the corner triple. Swish.
We file this under the Warm designation for now, as the sample size is too small, but I'm hopeful this continues. In addition to the obvious shotmaking benefits, having a movement shooter(s) at your disposal functionally occupies help defenders and clears the paint for a two-man game.
Dug McDaniel, floater game. He's been superb converting non-rim, close twos, such as the floater in the clip below. Synergy has Dug at 1.4ppp on runners (7/10) for the season.
Its obviously huge if McDaniel can consistently add that to his repertoire as a smaller guard that isn't likely to be a great finisher at the rim. On the other hand, I don't necessarily know if that is the type of shot diet you want as a coach. We'll keep it under Warm for now and continue to monitor the effectiveness.
Cold
Lack of counter-use against icing coverage. To ice a ballscreen means the defender checking the ballhandler positions himself in such a way as to preclude the ballhandler from using said ballscreen. This occured a bit too much for your author's liking. SJU completely blows up Michigan's Double Drag action here and the Wolverines were lucky to score on a Tschetter bucket were he likely gets away with a travel.
The easiest counter against an icing defense is to simply flip the screen as we see below. Tarris comes from the right side of the court, but flips the screen as he notices the SJU defender gets in icing position. That counter completely compromised the defense as Soriano is now forced to switch to Dug and TWill's defender provides nail help to deter a blow-by. Bad read by McDaniel here, as he should've kicked out to Williams (only 1 pass away) once his defender helps. Instead, Dug takes an ill-advised floater (hence my slight concern noted above) that is easily blocked. Good scheme, poor processing + execution.
Michigan did utilize that strategy a few times, but not with enough volume. In addition to flipping screens, having your big simply slip screens (particularly when the opposing big is showing at screen level and/or blitzing) is another effective counter. It's something I'm going to monitor moving forward.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
If subsequent foes pick up Dug full court I'd be curious to know if it's really for the purpose of pressuring him/trying to get turnovers or if it's more just to make him work, to try and tire him out since he carries so much of the ball handling load.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
I would say it's a combination of both. And things like this will be mitigated once Llewellyn makes his way back into the lineup.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
I don't understand it. Unless the foes have 3-4 guards to spend on this, the defender gets just as tired.
I said in other columns that full-court press must be the worst way to try to disrupt Dug. I expect bigger B1G teams to put larger guards on and play half-court, continue to force him to use screens (poorly, so far) and prevent him from getting into the lane any way they can.
If he keeps up the 3pt %, though, he's going to be a problem
November 16th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
I agree, full court pressing Dug is just stupid. He's so fast that if and when he breaks the press, it's essentially a fast break with 2 to 3 defenders behind Dug
November 16th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Playing a large guard on him is also bad. Consider the "blow-by".
November 16th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
Agreed. Being the quickest player on the floor, and being able to take advantage of it, is just as impactful as being the biggest player on the floor-maybe more so.
November 16th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
The way to counter Dug is blitzing coverage in half-court setting. He's really struggled vs that coverage. And I'd be shocked if we don't see more of that moving forward.
He has a bad tendency to retreat with his dribble and turn his back to defenders. It blows up the entire possession when he does that. Definitely think his lack of size plays into that.
November 16th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
Shhhhh!
November 16th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
I love the idea of this column! I'm looking forward to future iterations.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
Glad to see some interesting basketball content Matt! Keep it comin!
I'd love to get your take on Nkamhoua on both ends of the court because he seems like such a pro with all of the things he does - ranging from obvious scoring/defense but even to the subtle things like court awareness, communication, rebounding, positioning, etc.
Personally, the one thing I'll be watching as the season progresses and competition ramps up is how sustainable our shooting is. I think most of us assumed we would be a bad outside shooting team and that we'd struggle in rock-fights most of the year without a pure shooter on the roster (depending on your opinion of Tray Jackson or GW3). Instead, we've seen great shooting thus far from Dug, WillT, TWill, ON, and Nimari. How much of that is sustainable? Hard to say.....but I'll enjoy it as long as it lasts and certainly helps to build confidence with a hot start.
November 16th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
I've been really encouraged by Nkamhoua's passing/playmaking. Michigan runs a LOT of offense through him in half-court scenarios. He's almost the third PG on the roster right now to a certain extent
November 16th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I'm really encouraged by the defense of Reed & Burnett also. Tschetter is obviously putting in the effort, though fouling a lot. I'm hoping it's infectious to whichever wings are in and that it can make up for Dug, who seems to wander a bit on some possessions
November 16th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Tarris Reed is the Kenneth Grant of basketball.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Duggie McBuckets (love that handle) is so elusive he's almost like a sixth player on the floor. If a defense starts chasing him the entire structure breaks down. I'd love to see guys cutting to the hoop when Dug is cruising through the baseline. This is how I remember Steve Nash getting a lot of his assists.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
"Duggie McBuckets (love that handle)"
It's just Doug McDermott nickname, and I think fits him a lot better since he was such a go to scorer
November 16th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
Thanks for the insights! Looking forward to the column throughout the season.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
It’s nice having a PG in the system for a second year.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
Shouldn't Will Tschetter shooting be in the Blazing Hot section?
November 16th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
Will has been really good shooting the ball without question, but I weighted the SJU game based on competition level. If he keeps it up, he'll certainly make that Blazing Hot section in short order
November 16th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
TWill not being in the Blazing Hot category is a sham
November 16th, 2023 at 3:39 PM ^
TWill definitely has a case! But I did include him the movement shooter section under Warm.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
Good stuff. As a football coach, it is always nice to get a brush up on basketball terms especially as the season is ramping up. Thanks for including some brief reminders and I look forward to reading your future posts. I could read / watch Michigan basketball breakdowns all day.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
You da man, Matt! Thanks for the education and content!
November 16th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Love this content! Thanks Matt and keep up the great work.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
It's amazing how much better Michigan is this year without one of the best players in the country (Hunter).
November 16th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
I know Matt watches a lot of these guys through HS - I don't recall the exact view of Dug in HS but I think shooting was considered an issue (?)
Curious if Matt has a view on what has been upside surprises "now" vs what he viewed Dug as possibly being, as a HS senior.
November 16th, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
Absolutely shocked. He was subpar shooter at all three levels in HS.
OTOH, he's been below-average as a playmaker/making reads at Michigan, while he was superb at that in HS.
His college profile is truly bizarre IMO
November 16th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
Reed’s defense changes everything this year. If someone can create shots, this is going to be very tough team to beat.
Comments