olivier nkamhoua
Michigan Men's Basketball played a close game against an okay opponent. The game was back-and-forth and came down to a crucial closing minutes sequence. Michigan at one point had an opportunity to put an opponent away and did not do so. Michigan then lost the game. Nothing seems to ever change with the team and the program's year-and-a-half-long nightmares with close games continues after a 106-101 defeat to Florida at the Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte, NC.
The first half established many of the trends that would last for the duration of the game, Michigan's stellar three point shooting bolstering their offense, while Florida's offense was sustained through a high offensive rebounding clip. Michigan got out to an early 15-7 lead that was quickly winnowed by the Gators and from then on, it was pretty tight. Sloppiness was evident across the floor, with the two teams combining for 17 first half turnovers as the game devolved into rag-tag basketball for several stretches (something that would reappear in the second half).
The game was tied at 35 with under two minutes to go in the first half as the clock ticked down before the break. Dug McDaniel, who led Michigan with 15, delivered an underhand scoop off the backboard to put Michigan ahead. Both teams made stops on their next defensive possessions, which gave Michigan a chance to hold for the final shot and guarantee that they'd go into halftime with the lead. McDaniel looked for Olivier Nkamhoua on a potential alley-oop, which was intercepted by Florida's leading scorer in the half, Alex Condon. Condon passed it ahead to Zyon Pullin, who got just across half-court before pulling up for a long three. Pullin banked it in and Florida went to halftime up 38-37.
[Click the JUMP for another three periods of almosts.]
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With roughly a third of the regular season over for Michigan, this is a good time for a macro level look in an effort to understand where the Wolverines are and where things might be going as we head into the thick of conference play.
Real
Perimeter Shotmaking. The Wolverines are connecting on 37.1% of their triples as a team, good for #50 nationally per Torvik. While the raw percentage is certainly indicative of the team's shooting prowess to a certain extent, a deeper dive is necessary to gain a full understanding.
Per Synergy, Michigan is putting up 1.09pps on catch and shoot jumpers, landing in the 77th percentile across the nation. While that number is certainly good, it's not quite elite territory. A closer look reveals the Wolverines may actually be underperforming a bit on these looks. The team is at 1.10pps/51st percentile on 67 unguarded catch and shoot attempts. On the other hand, 1.09pps/82nd percentile on 128 catch and shoot attempts that are guarded. It's easy to see where Michigan might experience some positive regression with respect to the unguarded attempts.
Numbers aside, the distribution is very encouraging in terms of sustainability + projection. The Wolverines have four players shooting volume triples on percentages that you want to see. McDaniel/Burnett/Williams/Nkamhoua are all above 35% from distance while taking at least three triples per game. Throw in a high-efficiency/low-volume shooter like Tschetter and Michigan is very likely to have at least a few guys stretching the floor per game, as we have 4-5 viable options at different positions to ensure there aren't many games where the well is completely dry.
In addition to the raw percentage and distribution, the variety of shot types also lend credence to legitimate shooting prowess. We're not talking stationary corner triples exclusively here. We have difficult shotmakers in the backcourt and Dug McDaniel is leading the charge.
To quantify, Dug is 83rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers at 1.07pps. A sample size of 45 shots isn't necessarily big, but it is large enough to say that he's not a guy you can go under ballscreens against without penalty.
[AFTER THE JUMP we get a bit more real and not so real]
Let's take a look under the hood to examine what went into the blowout.
Defensive Rebounding
I differ from most when assessing the primary defensive issues that have plagued Michigan early this season. The lack of timely off-ball rotations and lapses in transition defense certainly loom large in the defensive woes, but not at the top of the list in my opinion.
The Wolverines have been horrid in terms of finishing possessions, checking in with the #224 DReb rate per Torvik. To put this in perspective, Michigan's Dreb rate has been below 70 four games this season. That is absolutely mindblowing considering the Wolverines play two bigs for large portions of games.
In the win against Iowa, the Wolverines came up with 78.8% of the available defensive rebounds and it paid massive dividends in aiding the defense.
Will Tschetter was a massive part of this victory, pulling down 35.8% of the available defensive rebounds during his time on the floor. Let's take a look at some of his best work in the clip below.
After beating Sandfort to the spot, watch Will take young Payton for a ride from the left side of the paint before dropping him off outside the paint on the right side. The box-out was so good that Tschetter was barely forced to jump in order to secure the rebound. That's premium cheddar right there.
Now let's take a look at the guards getting into the action. First up, Nimari Burnett.
After Tarris forces a wild fadeaway, Nkamhoua does a fairly good job of boxing-out Ladji Dembele, but to no avail. Dembele comes up with not one, but two, offensive rebounds in the same possession.
Look at the :18 mark in the clip. Burnett is forced to switch on Dembele after the screen. Iowa spots this and hits him with the entry pass on the mismatch. But Nimari does a good job using his length to contest the jumphook. He nearly finishes the possession himself, as he left the ground quicker than Dembele on the rebound attempt. A scrum ensues and Michigan is able to regain possession. These sort of efforts are critical for team defense.
[AFTER THE JUMP more Cheese, a face-up five and the bench mob]
There are plenty of volunteers and Zion Williamson knows them all.
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