Upon Further Review 2022: Defense vs TCU
UFR Glossary: Here. Sorry this took so long to get out. If you're wondering, it was the 3rd and 2 when Mazi Smith turned down a free sack that caused a three-month rage quit.
Video Note: It looks like Gfycat is dying. I got half of the videos uploaded before uploading stopped working. They're still hosting for now, but I moved to Streamable to complete the job. Feedback appreciated.
Substitution Notes: Michigan started in a dime with all three CBs and Turner the dimeback, and used that a lot instead of a second safety. A lot less rotation up front than most of the season. Colson, Barrett, Smith and Jenkins went most of the way, Harrell and Morris had about 75% of the snaps outside. McGregor earned his way on the field in the 2nd half, but Graham, Upshaw, Moore, Okie, and Rolder had far smaller workloads than usual.Secondary was Moore the whole way, Paige when Turner wasn't diming, and the usual cornerback rotation. Quinten Johnson got in for one drive. Moten did not play.
Formation Notes: Double arrows means the players who normally play those positions have swapped roles so "H<->Y" here means the slot receiver (H) and TE (Y) have done so.
I'm shortening the nomenclature for 4- and 5-wide sets to how the threats are arrayed, so this is 3x1:
And this is a "3x1 Stack RB":
…meaning the RB is on the same side as the stacked WRs. I'll list the field side first so if you see "1x3" that means 3 WRs to the boundary. TCU also went Unbalanced, meaning there's only a guard and a TE above the C here:
[After THE JUMP: Some surprising results]
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O10 | 1st | 10 | Offset 4x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Play-action | 5 | Slot Fade | Green | Inc | -0.35 |
Four WRs, M has an extra CB on for one of the safeties. Colson(-1) brought, should be a sack (RPS+1) but he sets up for a ZR that can't happen. Smith(+1, PR+2) blew up the RG who gets away with a yank. That and JC's hesitation are enough for Duggan to throw it away at a slot fade that Green(+1, cov+1) is over. | ||||||||||||
O10 | 2nd | 10 | Pistol Twins Z-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | Run | Dive/Jet Option | Morris | 8 | 0.26 | |
Morris(-2) and Smith(-1) both blown out by doubles, slipping on grass. Moore(+1, tackling+1) does a good job to come down, set up, and stack in a big gap to prevent a 1st. | ||||||||||||
O18 | 3rd | 2 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | Pass | 4 | Slant | Johnson | Inc | -0.30 |
Isolate Johnson(+2, cov+2) who stays in contact and PBUs. Throw somewhere else maybe. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O24 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3w Stack | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | RPO | IZ/Bubble | Barrett | 14 | 1.19 | |
I think Upshaw(-2) got the wrong call here because the rest of the line is slanting his way with a LB blitzing off the left and Taylor goes inside the RT. No edge, bounce, 14 yards since M's in man. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 1st | 10 | Pistol 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 1 fld | Run | Zone Read | Smith | 3 | -0.43 | |
Jenkins gets the C to release then flips back inside but not in time to make the RB has to change his path, Smith(+1) is two-gapping the LG and is there to collect. Colson(+0.5) gets off a block to prevent YAC. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 2nd | 7 | Pistol Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | RB Dumpoff | Barrett | Inc | -0.96 |
Amoeba CB blitz and good zone (cov+1) behind it blows this up but so does Jenkins(+2, PR+2) who beats the C clean. RT gets a shove on Turner but he gets a hand in the ball's path, throw is too far out in front and RB can't Edwards it. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 3rd | 7 | Offset Wk Tight | 4-2-5 | RC Exotic | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Scramble | Upshaw | 12 | 2.72 |
Upshaw(-2) jumps for a free play, and then also gets too aggressive on his pass rush without a care for the rush lane. Very unlike him. Smith(-2) hopped up for a bat then just stopped moving ??? so there's zero pursuit until the LBs, who are well past the sticks. | ||||||||||||
M47 | 1st | 10 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | Pass | 3 | Comeback | Okie | 21 | 0.89 |
Three-man rush, lots of time until McGregor(+1) beats the LT and gets 100% gotta-call-that held (Refs-2). Extra time is enough to find a guy on a comeback under Green and over Okie(-1, cov-1) who spot-dropped. I get that he's a DE but if you're in coverage you have to keep dropping. | ||||||||||||
M26 | 1st | 10 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk unset | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Flash Screen | Sainristil | 4 | -0.04 |
Tempo(25) and clearly scripted as all 5 OL cutblock on a screen. Sainristil(-0.5, tackling-1) is there quickly but QJ is way bigger than him and falls forward for 4 yards. | ||||||||||||
M22 | 2nd | 6 | Offset Wk H-Jet | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 off | RPO | Split Flow | Paige | 4 | -0.04 | |
M has a well-disguised safety blitz (RPS+1) but Paige(-2, tackling-2) whiffs the tackle as he flies in. Jenkins(+0.5) and Moore(+0.5) manage to halt the RB, who gets hurt | ||||||||||||
M18 | 3rd | 2 | Offset Wk H<->Y | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 press | PRO | n/a | Split Flow | Moore | 7 | 0.28 |
Tempo(30) also scripted as they slow roll after the play until M starts changing then rush to the line and put the slot where the TE normally goes. It's the same play out the other side, though M seems to have to be ready despite sneaking in a change. McGregor just barely misses tipping this throw. Moore(-1, tackling-1) is in position to stop for a loss but bounces off, slot gets the first and more. | ||||||||||||
M11 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | H-Out | Sainristil | 6 | 0.18 |
Sainristil(tackling-1) has to get around a good pick route (legal) in man (RPS-1), does so, but then gets taken for a YAC ride. | ||||||||||||
M5 | 2nd | 4 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 press | Run | ZR Power GT Keep | Harrell | 3 | -0.12 | |
Michigan has both DEs going at the mesh (RPS+2) but Harrell(-2) inexplicably tackles the RB when Morris already has him. Barrett(+1) gets off a block to keep it to 3rd & 1. | ||||||||||||
M2 | 3rd | 1 | I-Form | 5-2-4 | Goal | 0 press | Run | Bush Push | Graham | 1 | 1.52 | |
They get it. | ||||||||||||
M1 | 1st | Goal | Gun Twins RB Z-Jet | 5-2-4 | Goal | 0 press | Run | RB Lead | Paige | 1 | 0.89 | |
Johnson is late trailing the jet, Paige(-1) widens, and that's all the gap this needs as the RB is leading. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 0-7. 2 min 1st Q. Gee, Michigan, you could have run this by the goal line. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O27 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Slant | Colson | INT | -4.14 |
Tons of time, Colson(+3, cov+3) is isolated on the slot (RPS-2), who has time for a stop and slant, which no way is an MLB supposed to be able to cover that. Except JC gets on his hip, gets away with a bit of rubbin's racin', and tips it away. Ball goes to Rod Moore(+2) who catches it on the TCU 49. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception. 3-14. 13 min 2nd Q. Refs spot Michigan two yards short before the Wilson TD they insanely overturned. TCU gets the ball on their 20 after the ensuing fumble. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O20 | 1st | 10 | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | RPO | Duo/Curls | Turner | 13 | 0.96 | |
Goode(-0.5) blown out by double so Barrett(-1) and Colson both activate to fix, and I think only one was supposed to, but Paige(+0.5) comes down and communicates to Harrell that he's replacing Barrett. WR who meant to crack Paige sees this and seals off Harrell. Turner(-2) needs to replace but was passive, then got edged for 15 yards. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 1st | 10 | Offset Trips | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | RPO | Draw/Snag | Turner | 6 | 0.39 | |
Michigan has a CB blitz (RPS+2) that should end this in the backfield but Turner(-2, tackling-1) gets dragged to turn a 3-yard loss into a 6-yard gain. | ||||||||||||
O39 | 2nd | 4 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Even | 1 off | Pass | 4 | Fade | Turner | Inc | -1.11 |
Morris(+1, PR+1) beats the LT and gets into Duggan's legs, might be why this is short. Turner(+2, cov+2) in perfect coverage but not looking back so WR starts shoving him. Nothing to call on Turner but good defense. WR gets up Sparting for a call anyways. | ||||||||||||
O39 | 3rd | 4 | Gun Wk H-In | 4-2-5 | Okie 1 | 1 press | Pass | 6 | Quick In | Colson | Inc | -0.66 |
Another coulda. Blitz is picked up except Barrett(+1, PR+1) knocks the RB over and the ball has to be out immediately. JC lined up off edge, wasn't seen, and has a free pick if he's reading the QB or WR, but he's spot-dropping and doesn't react fast to enough to the WR coming into his zone. That leaves a window to get the ball in but Johnson(+0.5) and Colson(+0.5, cov+1) hit the guy after the ball arrives and he drops it. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-14. 11 min 2nd Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O17 | 1st | 10 | Offset Str Y-Flex | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 bdy | RPO | IZ/Flash Screen | Colson | 3 | -0.20 | |
Yet another coulda-TFL where the scores are a combination of grades. Barrett(+0.5) blasts into the LG, Smith(+0.5) plants the RT in the backfield, and Upshaw(+0.5) has set up outside on the LT, and it looks like a 2-yard loss. LG recovers and drives Barrett out of the box, Colson replaces because Jenkins(+0.5) had a play-long double, then Jenkins and Colson (tackling-1) both manage to let this RB spin between them to end up with a 3-yard gain. | ||||||||||||
O20 | 2nd | 7 | Offset Wk H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 fld | Play-action | 4 | Hook | Moore | 13 | 1.31 |
Nobody buys PA but clean pocket because Jenkins slipped. D-Mo is chipped by the TE then unblocked, leaps, and is a fraction of an inch from knocking this down. Moore(-1, cov-1) slowed down thinking it was tipped, and the ball finds its way to the WR under Johnson(-1) who was playing bail with too much cushion. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 1st | 10 | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | 5-1 under | 2 fld | Pass | 5.5 | Fade | Sainristil | Inc | -0.96 |
M shows blitz with Colson at edge and comes, picked up but Harrell(+1, PR+1) spins through the RT and forces this to go up. Scissors concept that Sainristil(+1, cov+1) covered perfectly, ball is way long. | ||||||||||||
O33 | 2nd | 10 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Run | ZR Power GT Keep | Harrell | 8 | 0.66 | |
Same zone read they ran near the goal line and still Harrell(-2) attacks the RB like it's 1999. Tempted to -3 this but it's just 8 yards after Q-Jo and Green get him down. | ||||||||||||
O41 | 3rd | 2 | Gun 3x2 H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 fld | Pass | 4 | Botched Screen | Smith | 8 | 1.80 |
One of those moments where luck changed the outcome. Johnson(+1) blasts his CB to clear a path for Sainristil and Harrell(+1, RPS+2) survives a chop block combo to deter a throw that way. Smith(-2) is unblocked (Hat-2) with a free sack to end the drive but doesn't trust it, stops, falls down, and allows Duggan runs past a vastly held Green (Refs-2) to convert plus extra. If you're wondering, this was the play that stopped my charting for 4 weeks. | ||||||||||||
O49 | 1st | 10 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | Pass | 4 | Free fade | Q-Jo | 32 | 1.32 |
The CB blitz where nobody covered the WR he was over. Duggan flips the RB pre-snap and is watching Green all the way (RPS-2). I'm convinced the breakdown was in the safeties since they roll down; Q-Jo(-3, cov-3) is the one not getting the message. Neck Sharpies. | ||||||||||||
M19 | 1st | 10 | Empty 4x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 fld | RPO | Draw/Fly | Harrell | 4 | -0.02 | |
Tempo(25). Duggan has a quick fly read before he takes off. M light in the box (RPS-1) but Harrell(+1) gets back to close it down well enough. | ||||||||||||
M15 | 2nd | 6 | Offset Str RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | Run | Belly | Colson | 9 | 0.58 | |
M should have this blown up (RPS+2), slanting to get Colson(-2, tackling-2) a free hit with Sainristil coming off the same edge and just completely whiffing. Did he fall down on the grass maybe? Grant(-1) gets destroyed by a double but occupied two guys so it's not that bad. Paige(+1) comes down to prevent a walk-in TD, grabs the RB's leg, and instead of going down that guy fights for more, injures himself, and fumbles. RNG in this game means it just goes right back to him. | ||||||||||||
M6 | 1st | Goal | Gun Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | Pass | 4 | Corner Fade | Johnson | Inc | -0.48 |
McGregor(+1, PR+1) puts a move on the RT, ball has to be out, Johnson(+2, cov+2) has it blanketed, ball is thrown short and OOB. | ||||||||||||
M6 | 2nd | Goal | Offset Wk RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | Pass | 6 | Mesh | Turner | 6 | 2.48 |
Arrgh. Blitz (RPS+1) gets McGregor(-1, tackling-2, PR+2) past an RG who's already too late. Has a sack with Sainristil coming outside but dives early and Duggan (Hat+3) makes some magic, throwing a dime to a crosser getting legally picked (ball behind the LOS) while getting leveled by Sweetness. Johnson(-1) can't get off a WR block in the endzone. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 21-3. 4 min 2nd Q. Drive encapsulates the game: blitzes get pressure, TCU pulls it out of their asses. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O15 | 1st | 10 | Offset Str RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Splits | 2 press | Run | ZR IZ Give | Paige | 16 | 1.01 | |
Right playcall, nerfed by execution (RPS+1). M slants and blitzes Barrett(-1) who mistimes it and gets stood up but does get into his gap. Colson(-1) chose the same gap and doesn't hop back for...reasons?. Paige(-1, tackling-2) tries to make him right and whiffs. Moore cleans up. | ||||||||||||
O31 | 1st | 10 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 2 off | Run | ZR IZ Give | Paige | 7 | 0.68 | |
Tempo(32). Hurry up and run the same play the other way. M looks unset but has Barrett flying into the flat to take away a quick slant. Good thought, bad roll, RPS-1, as this gets them 5 in the box and a free release on Colson. Jenkins(+0.5) two-gaps his single-block and nearly gets it down, slowing things up. Sainristil(-1) needs to gets upfield of the slot since he's the WLB on this play now, gets locked too far down and RB can bend around that. Paige(+2) gets down and barely trips up the RB. Drive-saver. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 2nd | 3 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Fly | Turner | Inc | -1.17 |
Super clean pocket (PR-2) and a DL coach wants to chime in on Harrell(-1) [hands are great, his right leg is terrible. Next step should be a stab to get inside, instead he takes two steps upfield. Everything he won he gives away with his feet.] However this is just a shot downfield. Turner(+2, cov+2) is over the top and removes any chance. | ||||||||||||
O38 | 3rd | 3 | Offset Trips | 4-2-5 | 5-2 Odd | 1 off | Pass | 5 | Sack | Paige | -7 | -1.12 |
Finally hit home, or fool's gold. Double-A gap blitz and drop both OLBs. Nobody for Paige(+1, RPS+2) and nowhere for Duggan to go. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 21-3. 1 min 2nd Q. Kinda think this was part of the reason Minter was so aggressive in the 2nd half. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Run | 4 | QB Draw | Colson | 14 | 1.22 |
Catch Smith(-1) focused on his OL and Duggan is free with a convoy. Tough job for Colson(-1) but he needs to funnel to Barret, gets edged instead and it's a chunk. RPS-1. | ||||||||||||
O39 | 1st | 10 | Offset 3x1 stack RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide | 1 off | RPO | IZ/Bubble | Jenkins | 1 | -0.90 | |
Sainristil guns for the screen: give. Jenkins(+2) is totally boss, standing up the RG in the backfield like a sled, shedding, and tackling. Smith(+1) got across his guard too. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 2nd | 9 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 1 fld | Pass | 5 | Mesh | Barrett | Inc | -0.81 |
Twist inside, Colson(+1, RPS+2, PR+2) times it well and sneaks in unblocked from the backside. Barrett(+1, cov+1) is out in the flat with the RB and crossers are covered. Ball thrown away at RB. | ||||||||||||
O40 | 3rd | 9 | Gun 3x1 stack RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide A | 1 bdy | Pass | 6 | Hitch | Green | Inc | -0.41 |
Big planned double-A gap blitz with Barrett dropping from 0-tech and Rolder coming late. Refs(-2) miss a clipping as the RB takes out his knees while the RG's engaged. Moore gets in free but (PR+1) but pass gets out in time so no RPS for that. Green(+2, cov+2) is on an island but gets over the top and PBUs. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 21-6. 13 min 3rd Q. Two big blitzes from Minter worked again. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Offset Wk RB H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | 2 press | PRO | n/a | Split Flow | Sainristil | 6 | 0.33 |
Upshaw sets up inside. Sainristil(-1, tackling-1) read the play perfectly but is small vs a TE and gets dragged for 6 yards. | ||||||||||||
O31 | 2nd | 4 | Offset Wk | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | RPO | Duo/Curls | McGregor | 3 | -0.36 | |
Trouble as Smith(-0.5) and Jenkins (-0.5) get moved by doubles and Colson(-1) takes that as a cue to hop inside. McGregor(+2) flings down the LT and gets the RB's shoulder, slowing him enough for Colson to recover and stop short of the sticks. Close to Hutchinsonian there. | ||||||||||||
O34 | 3rd | 1 | Offset Wk H<->Y | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | Run | Split Zone | Barrett | 2 | 0.95 | |
Tempo(30). Upshaw isn't set. Slant and Colson(+1) almost makes a super duper play if Barrett(-0.5) can stand up but he's an LB playing DT vs a LG so they get it. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 1st | 10 | Offset Str RB | 4-2-5 | 404 Tite | 2 off | Pass | 4 | Verts | Upshaw | Inc | -1.04 |
They want a high-low with the H and Y but Upshaw(+1, RPS+1, cov+2) recognizes it and chips the TE down as Barrett carries the slot. LT doubles because Upshaw isn't coming so Duggan's timer is how long it takes Upshaw to race in. Nobody else is getting there (PR-1), DTs because they're doubled, McGregor(-1) because he slipped. Duggan tries to hit a comeback open under Turner(-1) but misses high, probably because of Upshaw. It was open. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 2nd | 10 | Offset Wk RB H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Under | 2 off | Pass | 7 | Slip Screen | Benny | Inc | -0.63 |
LT is well beyond legal depth which is a pass tell usually. M sells out on a 7-man blitz, and Benny(+1, PR+2, RPS+1) is into the backfield so quickly the screen can get set up. Duggan avoids the sack but Rolder(+1) set up on the RB so he turfs it deep in the backfield, IE nowhere near the RB (Refs-2). Frustrating because they called this tight on JJ a drive ago. | ||||||||||||
O36 | 3rd | 10 | Offset 2x2 | 4-3-4 | Exotic | 2 bdy | Pass | 3 | Mills Post | Sainristil | INT | -3.77 |
Karma boils over. No pressure (PR-2) as they're sending Okie on a long loop and Upshaw(-1) gets upended by an RB. Paige(-0.5) kind of gave away the coverage by bailing before the snap (Moore yells at him). The initial high-low read is well-covered but Colson(-2) is way too high over a post to midfield. It's about to be a conversion but the receiver doinks (Hat-3) into the hands of a trailing Sainristil(+2) who returns it to the TCU 45. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Interception. 21-9. 7 min 3rd Q. M scores in two plays (flea-flicker to Bell) so it's right back on the field. DTs are Goode and Graham next drive. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Play-action | 6 | Fade | Moore | 46 | 3.29 |
ARRGH!!!! They bring six including a dog (go if your guy stays in) blitz from Turner. Sainristil(+1) beats the RB around to flush into…nobody because Okie(-3, PR-3) went to the same side of his blocker as Turner. Duggan uses the freebie to nail a slot that Moore(-0.5) had to carry across the entire field. Man shouldn't have to cover that long. | ||||||||||||
M29 | 1st | 10 | Offset Twins RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Run | Duo | Rolder | 15 | 0.24 | |
Tempo(24). Live I yelled at Goode but I think this is largely on Graham(-2) who knocks the LG's hat off and gets put in the wrong gap. That allows the C to release on Rolder(-1). He gets yanked (Refs-1) in a way that should be called but Rolder needs to keep that shoulder free. Sainristil(-1, tackling-1) misses his attempt to close it down to turn it into a chunk. | ||||||||||||
M14 | 1st | 10 | Pistol Twins Z-Jet | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 off | RPO | Split Flow Give | Paige | 2 | -0.11 | |
Nk blitz into this works because Sainristil(+1) redirects by hopping inside his kickout, sets up on the jet. Jenkins(+0.5) has his OL in the backfield but Rolder(-1) let the C lock him out so both he and Harrell have to two-gap. RB re-gaps outside both until Paige(+1) arrives to knock that off. | ||||||||||||
M12 | 2nd | 8 | Offset Str RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | Run | Belly | Smith | 6 | 0.07 | |
Rolder flares out with the TE thinking it's an RPO. Morris(-0.5) is slow to react to the give, and Smith(-1) gets blown out by the backside double, so they can fall forward for a good gain. | ||||||||||||
M6 | 3rd | 2 | Offset Trips Unbal | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 press | RPO | Duo/Flash Screen | Smith | 5 | 1.65 | |
Tempo(29). Jenkins(+1) burrows through his double to run into the RB but Rolder(-1) gets knocked back so there's plenty of room to twist into to get the first. | ||||||||||||
M1 | 1st | Goal | Pistol Str | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Goal | 0 press | Run | Belly | Smith | 1 | 0.89 | |
Tempo(27). Jenkins slants but can't prevent the RG from getting to Rolder(-1) who gets swallowed. Smith(-0.5) is dog tired and gets moved out by his double. RB walks in. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 16-28. 4 min 3rd Q. One big play then true freshman MLB vs tempo in the redzone. TCU gets a pick six then M scores and misses the 2PT so it's 34-22 when we come back. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O22 | 1st | 10 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Splits | 1 off | RPO | Belly/Out | McGregor | 8 | 0.84 | |
Both LBs are stacking frontside and all DBs are in man, RPS-1 this is next to impossible to defend. Colson(-1) sees Smith(-1) washed down too late. McGregor(+2) barely gets a hand on the RB's foot to or else it's Demercado vs Moore for all the yards. | ||||||||||||
O30 | 2nd | 2 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 fld | Run | Belly | Colson | 69 | 4.49 | |
Been over this a zillion times and I'm ready to call it the worst LB play I've ever seen. Double edge blitz creates a 6-1 look, meaning the LB is free to shade the RB and this should be D.O.A. (RPS+2). Colson(-4) bites on an inside gap that has both Jenkins and a slanting Harrell(-1) getting washed into it. Then he gets dusted by the RB. | ||||||||||||
M1 | 1st | Goal | Goal 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Over | n/a | Run | QB Sneak | Smith | 1 | 0.89 | |
Tempo(25). They get it. I blame KSU. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 22-41. Commence insanity portion of the game. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O25 | 1st | 10 | Offset Wk RB H-Jet | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 bdy | RPO | Split Flow Give | Smith | 2 | -5.18 | |
Jenkins(+1) two-gaps the RG and gets into the backfield to initiate the tackle. Smith(+3) beats a double and strips as Demarcado is going down, then he and Barrett fall on it. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Fumble. 30-41. EO3Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O21 | 1st | 10 | Offset 1x3 RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Run | Bash Give | Johnson | 3 | -0.25 | |
Morris(-1) plays the QB and gets edged when Smith(+1) has him protected if they go off the backside again. Barrett(+1) flips to the other side of the releasing LT and gets yanked back on the edge (Refs-2), which is a pretty big no-call when a guy's momentum is stopped on the edge. Johnson(+2, tackling+2) disappears the distance and form tackles just how they teach it. Hot damn. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 2nd | 7 | Empty 3x2 | 4-2-5 | Exotic | 1 bdy | Pass | 5 | Rub | Morris | Inc | -0.46 |
They're trying to rub Green and do get some separation but five-man blitz gets Morris(+2, PR+2) singled on the RG that he puts in the backfield and bats this. | ||||||||||||
O24 | 3rd | 7 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Exotic | 0 off | Pass | 7 | Mesh | Turner | 76 | 6.99 |
About how this game has gone. Minter dials up a pressure and Duggan is ready (Hat+3, RPS-2), Maddening backwards to buy time with Sainristil (+1, PR+1) in his face, and flips it to his crosser. By their luck it's behind the LOS so the full-on block on Johnson is 100% legal. Turner(-3, tackling-3) had to track all the way across, gets in position to stop it short of the sticks hen takes an angle too high and whiffs without slowing him. Nobody else behind him because Green(-2) either got leveled or out-and-out tackled, and it's a 76-yard TD. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 38-48. 13 min 4th Q. M goes 3-and-out and gives up a long PR so next drive starts at the M16. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
M16 | 1st | 10 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 press | Run | Belly Keeper | Colson | 1 | -0.26 | |
This time they get it right as TCU went to the well too many times and M runs a scrape exchange (RPS+2). Colson whiffs, but got leverage and made Duggan have to stop and dance, giving Moore time to come down and clean up. LT gets away with a clear two-handed block in the back (Refs-2). | ||||||||||||
M15 | 2nd | 9 | Offset Twins RB Z-Jet | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Split | 2 fld | Run | Jet Sweep | Moore | 2 | -0.19 | |
Whistle-swallow time as Green(+1) reads this and gets outside then the TE is tearing his jersey off (Refs-2) FFS guys. Barrett(+1) bounces off an attempt at cracking him and forces a bounce. Moore(+1) reads that and gets outside, WR tries to cut back and slips down, but they had him corralled anyways. | ||||||||||||
M13 | 3rd | 7 | Offset Str | 4-2-5 | Nk Wide A | 1 fld | Run | ZR Power GT | D.Moore | -2 | -0.64 | |
M shows double-A blitz with Paige as an LB and TCU calls TO. Minter has a double-edge blitz on (RPS+1) that eats it alive. D-Mo(+1) is already crashing and wisely plants the kickout deep inside, cutting off the lead blocker. Smith(+2) shucked his guard. Everyone meets in the backfield for a huge redzone three-and-out. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: FG(33). 38-51. 10 min 4th Q. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O10 | 1st | 10 | Gun Wk RB Z-Orbit | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 fld | RPO | Counter GT/Flare Screen | Harrell | 3 | -0.15 | |
#SpeedinSpace play where they fake the screen and run a power GT the other way. Harrell(+1) isn't fooled, stepping into the kickout, and though he gets bonked out of there to free the other puller, he recovers in time to tackle. Colson(+0.5) whooped the TE trying to crack him and Paige(+1) came down to stick before blockers realized he was an issue. | ||||||||||||
O13 | 2nd | 7 | Offset 3x1 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 fld | Pass | 4 | Curl | Turner | 5 | 0.05 |
Clean pocket (PR-1) as they are focused on containing Duggan. He dances around for 3 seconds then finds a short curl that Turner is on immediately. cov-push. | ||||||||||||
O18 | 3rd | 2 | Offset 2x2 | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 1 press | Pass | 5 | Slip Screen | Barrett | -2 | -0.37 |
Perfectly played by Barrett(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) to read the screen and get him down in the backfield. RPS+1 the announcers in NCAA14 have a recording just for this. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 38-51. 7 min 4th Q. Next drive is 45-51 with 3:14 and all of M's TOs. | ||||||||||||
Ln | Dn | Dst | OForm | DPack | Front | Hi | Type | Rush | Play | Player | Yds | EPA |
O10 | 1st | 10 | Gun 3x1 RB | 4-2-5 | Nk Split | 2 off | Run | 4 | QB Draw | Jenkins | 2 | -0.17 |
Jenkins(+2) is making the biggest plays. He reads the draw, gets across his blocker and makes the tackle. Paige(+0.5) gets extra credit for seeing it and getting in there, probably had a stop if not for Kris's heroics | ||||||||||||
O12 | 2nd | 8 | Pistol Twins Z-Jet | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Over | 2 bdy | Run | Split Flow Give | Barrett | 7 | 0.19 | |
More understandable but still a hold as Jenkins gets his shoulderpad torn off trying to flow. The bigger culprit is Colson(-1) hitting the releasing C square instead of getting his playside shoulder. Refs-1 also spot him a crucial yard past where the ball was when his knee was down. ARGH. | ||||||||||||
O19 | 3rd | 1 | Goal | 4-2-5 | Goal | n/a | Run | Sneak | Smith | 2 | 0.44 | |
They get it. | ||||||||||||
O21 | 1st | 10 | Offset Wk RB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Split | 2 fld | Run | Belly | Paige | 2 | -0.29 | |
1:13, 3TO. M uses Moore to watch Duggan so Paige(+1) can close this down. It gets a couple because Harrell(-1) gets moved a lot by the TE. | ||||||||||||
O23 | 2nd | 8 | Offset Trips RB | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Split | 1 press | Run | Belly | Moore | 4 | -0.15 | |
1:08, 2TO. Absolutely brilliant (Hat+3) play by the RT. Michigan is scrape exchanging (RPS+2) this thing and should have it dead to rights but the RT who's blocking down Jenkins lets him go to kick out Barrett. Jenkins stumbles, Duggan runs by him and Harrell (who's on the RB) and might have the game except Moore(+1, tackling+1) is hanging out in the box just in case because of the situation. Hypothetical block of the year for that guy if he did this on his own. Also: Steal this. | ||||||||||||
O27 | 3rd | 4 | Gun Wk Z-Fly | 4-2-5 | 4-3 Under | 0 off | Pass | 6 | ARO | Turner | 3 | -0.15 |
1:04, 1 TO. America's Rollout Out nerfs the blitz (PR-1) but M has a hat for everyone and Turner(+2, cov+2) doesn't miss the tackle. Refs-1 spot them a yard up, giving TCU a chance to go for the win, but they roll down a delay of game instead. | ||||||||||||
Drive Notes: Punt. 45-51. <1 min 4th Q. End of game for defense. |
Why would you do this?
Would you rather talk basketball?
There are other things in the world to talk about.
Such as?
The necessity of cutting Tom Bombadil from the screen adaptation of Lord of the Rings.
I think this is pretty much settled, but if you want to UFR one of the greatest films of all time you want Lindsay Ellis, not Seth Fisher. I'm your counterintuitive takes on Jesse Minter guy.
You have a hot take on Jesse Minter?
Yeah, because after this game I was telling every microphone in lipshot that Minter got out over his skis when trying to outsmart Sonny Dykes. I figured this exercise—give or take some nuance—would bear that out.
And it didn't?
It didn't. It's true that Minter turned the blitz dial all the way up. We've been tracking pass rushers per play since 2014 and 4.66 was the blitziest Michigan's been since the first year of Dr. Blitz.
It was also out of character. The only other super-blitzy game last year was Rutgers, and that was against a true freshman quarterback, nobody receivers, and an offense allergic to throwing downfield. Every other game was more on the Paterno end of the zone blitz spectrum than Dick LeBeau.
Minter's blitzes started up in the 2nd Quarter, or perhaps more precisely after a 12-play, 76-yard touchdown drive. There would be one 10-play drive after that, but that was the drive with 9 lives. The pressure put Michigan in position to kick TCU off the field in multiple, crucial situations. When they didn't get home, it was because Duggan was throwing pin-perfect drags while being hauled down 20 yards from the pocket, plus downfield defensive backs not getting off their blocks.
Like, there are negatives to assign for this, but not for the playcaller who got two guys unblocked to the quarterback.
I will hear arguments that Minter never addressed this particular weakness of his man blitzes versus drag screens. We talked about these rub plays all season—I might have to Neck Sharpies all of it over the offseason—because it was an obvious weakness even when opponents were getting their plays called back for throwing it downfield. When Michigan sent seven they tended to have their secondary play "man everywhere he goes" (MEG), which other coaches might call "man all day" (MAD), or "mad" because you're asking your corners to get through blockers on these screens.
I would say I was mad that they gave up five touchdowns.
The drive chart is listening.
- Touchdown drives of 83, 79, 78, 76, and 75 yards, three of those in three plays or fewer.
- Three turnovers.
- Three three-and-outs and three first-down-and-outs.
TCU had two sustained drives, one which should have been a three-and-out if TCU wasn't farting the Brandenburg Concertos. They also had eight drives that Michigan shut down after little movement. Your fan brain isn't totally betraying you. I'd say about 80% of their scoring was from coming up Milhouse on high-leverage situations. Minter didn't go full Jim Knowles, but he definitely went in that direction, and got a similar result.
But: Big surprise, right? When you blitz a lot the other team is going to adjust, and the adjustments are going to hurt more. Even then, Michigan had a couple of ways out. The gut-punch 3rd & 7 after Michigan closed the gap was the one where my fan brain thought "Oh crap, they've got us pegged."
For all the opportunities the players had to stop this, Duggan saw the pressure was coming, the receiver knew to bend it back behind the line of scrimmage, the other receiver knew he was okay to block Johnson. They had this contingency dialed up, and we fell right into it. I'm not excusing Turner for his gamble, but the reason he was in that position in the first place was TCU got wise to the blitzing. However the reason it got 70 yards was because Turner tried to prevent a makeable 4th down, and Gemon Green was taken out off-screen. You can just barely make it out on the replay here, starting 1 second into the clip:
I couldn't tell if that was a shoulder or a tackle from the few pixels left to us so I charged Green for it. The point is Michigan's blitzes weren't generating completely free romps to the endzone; they were generating chances to break tackles and block downfield that TCU was executing.
The blitzing also helped. The very next drive started deep in Michigan's territory. On 3rd & 7 the defense shows an interior blitz and TCU calls timeout to flip the play. They don't need seven; this is four-down territory and TCU thinks they can power their way to a quick 5-yard gain versus a pass rush. Minter has the call changed to an edge blitz, and there's nowhere for Duggan to go. He has to give because Harrell's coming off the backside, and once he does the slanting Derrick Moore is right where the pullers need to go.
Overall I was impressed at the level of play. I've often said I couldn't UFR an NFL game because of all the minutiae—plays are still drawn up, but with way more in-play options ad ad-libs by highly trained professionals reacting to each other. I guess that's what you should expect from Playoff teams at the end of a season and bowl practices, but even when they played Georgia last year I didn't struggle this much to differentiate play-calls from making plays. It was great football—arguably the best football Michigan's ever played—but also played hell on our charting system when trying to assign points between the players executing high-level stuff and the coaches calling it.
Here's an example of when I split it. Both teams set up like this and stayed like this after TCU called an audible:
TCU wants a high-low with the slot receiver and the TE at the bottom. Michigan takes away both, as Upshaw cuts off his edge rush until the TE is on the ground, allowing Barrett and Colson to stay with the slot receiver's route longer.
These are the margins that make a great coverage unit—every fraction of a second that Barrett can take away the top of his zone without the bottom of his zone being open is time for the pass rush to get through.
The reason Duggan still got a pass off to an open guy is Michigan's pass rush couldn't get anything. Upshaw ultimately came in unblocked, and I gave him credit for affecting the accuracy of the pass. He got a +2 on this play, so we're not knocking him, but also if you could get a guy faster than Taylor Upshaw there, you either draw the LT's attention away from Jenkins or probably McGregor was singled on the top but slipped on the crappy turf.
How bad was the pass rush?
Independent of the blitzing, bad. Hard to express how bad.
Surely you have some means of doing so. You have a keyboard, html, a bachelor of arts from a prestigious university, access to tags like and …
Those are table tags.
And yet you insist on calling it a chart.
YOU're the one who's always saying Chart.
Okay then Chart!
Chart.
Defensive Line | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Mazi Smith | 57 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | TCU doubles did damage; think he needed to come off more. |
Kris Jenkins | 55 | 10 | 0 | +10 | 2023 All-America campaign begins here. |
Mason Graham | 17 | 0 | 2 | -2 | Barely noticed. |
Rayshaun Benny | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | Barely played. |
Kenneth Grant | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | Barely played. |
Cam Goode | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | Immediately pulled, but wasn't his fault. |
Michael Morris | 39 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | Clearly not himself. |
Jaylen Harrell | 48 | 4 | 7 | -3 | Pretty good for him, takes bad steps in pass rush. |
Eyabi Okie | 11 | 0 | 4 | -4 | Oych. Maybe it's not happening. |
Taylor Upshaw | 16 | 1.5 | 5 | -3.5 | Two big mistakes early then replaced. |
Derrick Moore | 12 | 1 | 0 | +1 | Something to build on. |
Braiden McGregor | 20 | 6 | 2 | +4 | Michigan's best DE today. Offseason hype: Go. |
TOTAL | 287 | 36 | 34 | +2 | Biggest issue was TCU could move the ball on the ground. |
Linebacker | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
Junior Colson | 66 | 6.5 | 10 | -3.5 | Worst mistake of the year at the worst possible time. |
Michael Barrett | 61 | 7.5 | 2.5 | +5 | Just a good player now. Definitely his kind of game. |
Kalel Mullings | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | Moved to offense |
Jimmy Rolder | 13 | 1 | 4 | -3 | True freshman stuff when TCU tempo'd. |
TOTAL | 140 | 15 | 16.5 | -1.5 | Like Michigan, mostly solid, mistakes maximally punished. |
Secondary | |||||
Player | Snaps | + | - | T | Notes |
DJ Turner | 66 | 6 | 8 | -2 | Tackling issues are the NFL's problem now. |
Mike Sainristil | 66 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | Had to do more hybrid stuff, isn't big. |
Will Johnson | 51 | 7.5 | 2 | +5.5 | On the Marlin-Woodson track. |
Gemon Green | 48 | 4 | 2 | +2 | Only negative might've been him getting tackled. |
Rod Moore | 71 | 5.5 | 2.5 | +3 | Impact safety. |
Makari Paige | 46 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | Couple of missed tackles, otherwise very good. |
RJ Moten | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | DNP |
Quinten Johnson | 6 | 0 | 3 | -3 | The big bust was on him. |
TOTAL | 354 | 36 | 25.5 | +10.5 | A couple more tackles and it would have been a good day. |
Metrics | |||||
Player | + | - | T | Notes | |
Pressure | 18 | 10 | 22% | Got everything from Minter's blitzes, nothing from his rushers. | |
Coverage | 23 | 5 | +18 | Mostly played back. One spectacularly blown coverage. | |
Tackling | 5 | 18 | -13 | Most of this was on the secondary. | |
RPS | 26 | 11 | +15 | Minter had Dykes on volume, Dykes had Minter on effect. | |
Hat Tip | 9 | 5 | +4 | Duggan did stuff, his teammates undid stuff. |
Here we go again.
Here we go where?
You just posted some numbers and now you're going to use them to tell me why Jaylen Harrell sucks.
I wasn't going to say he sucks.
Rly?
I was going to get into a longwinded breakdown of his limitations that put the fact he's earned his playing time in context of what the defense needs from his position, and why he was probably the best man available for the job.
And you need to defend playing him because he sucks.
Only at pass-rushing and playing zone reads, and I'm happy to say he might have fixed both issues in the time it took me to get this out, because he was much better in the spring game. The scrape exchanges that both Maize and Blue were using to derail the pistol zone read stuff they had installed for all the backup QBs were driving me nuts because I had just finished going over the TCU game when Harrell looked as wide-eyed at the possibility of an option as a Lloyd Carr DE in 2001.
#32 edge on the top
Harrell had two of these, and I was going to write some not nice things until the spring game left me thinking the coaches were even madder about it than I was. From a run game standpoint however, this is the only maddening thing that Harrell does. The quintessential Jaylen Harrell experience is more of a physical complaint: he's in the exact right place after playing it the exact right way, and then gets bonked out of there because he's the exact opposite of heavy.
#32 the DE on the top
You can walk through his processing in realtime. He's not blocked so he gets a good base then shuffles inside looking for the crosser trying to kick him out, straddling the line between coming in so far he can be run around, but far enough inside to clog the lane they're trying to bang open. Then the impact happens and Harrell ends up a yard further out because of physics. But he does keep his balance, throws the lunging lug by him, and pursues for the tackle. A bigger Harrell crushes this, but the Harrell we got ends it after a 2-3 yard gain. From a coach's perspective, the guy who can give you that, and who can drop into a zone without looking like a DE playing zone, and who's got some upside as a pass-rusher deserves to be on the field.
He's also a guy who could get passed if a bigger player, say Derrick Moore, can catch up on the finer points. Moore gets moved back on this kickout too, but the physics are noticeably different, and by the time the digging's done traffic is all backed up.
#8 the DE on the top.
As for pass rushing, well, it would be *really* nice if Harrell could develop that this offseason. There's definitely room for improvement, and I say that meaning he can get a lot better, I mean there's a lot more he can do, I mean…oh why does every saying have to leave a connotation that he won't get there? I think Harrell has upside—there!—he just needs to put a lot of work into his technique.
A few weeks ago I had a defensive line coach (slash Thornton & Grooms technician) in my house who though Harrell's footwork on this play was an issue:
I'm venturing beyond my knowledge here, so take all of this with sodium chloride. On this pass rush Harrell is isolated with the left tackle and TCU is trying to get a chunk on 2nd & 3 to add points before halftime. That's a perfect my-guy-vs-your-guy situation, the football equivalent of a guard driving on a center…and getting thunder-blocked. But—to extend the analogy—Harrell actually had a blow-by at first, then blew it.
Off the snap you can see his hand work erases the offensive tackle. His feet are angled towards the quarterback, and his right leg is about to be behind the tackle's left frame. If you note where the tackle's arms are, there's no chance no for a push. The best the LT can hope for is to surrender ground, give chase, and hope there's enough room inside to push the DE by.
The next move is where things start to go wrong. Instead of planting that right leg and using it to propel him towards the quarterback, Harrell's foot lands way outside.
With his mass out there and his body facing upfield like that Harrell has a better chance of landing on the "30" than the quarterback. The next step is going inside but his momentum is heading upfield, and the LT has time to get back in position.
If this was a power rusher—I mean Braiden McGregor, not Aidan Hutchinson here—Harrell still might be able to plant the right foot and get around. But Harrell is light. His speed to close the distance and get around the tackle off the snap was his pass-rushing power. Arming 6-6/325-pound Brandon Coleman out of the way: not his power.
/end of pass rush.
Mike Morris's pass rush is captured here too but he was noticeably still hobbling between plays—when he had success it was diving inside on blitzes versus guards. The most interesting development at edge was McGregor seemingly passing the rest of the field in real time. Unfortunately that had a lot to do with his competition losing their minds. Taylor Upshaw's penultimate act as a Wolverine was singlehandedly extending this drive.
When you're the guy who's on the field not to screw up, jumping early and then giving up a plumb scrambling lane will end your day real quick. Okie's outing was similarly dominated by one unconscionable error. This is another Minter blitz that should have hit home even if TCU was leaving seven guys in to block. The problem was Okie left his goddamn lane entirely.
#18 the DE at the top
The freeze frame of this play is priceless. One tackle is blocking two guys.
That's freshman stuff, on top of things like spot-dropping where Okie was still understandably operating at freshman level.
#18 the DE dropping back at the bottom
That brings us to McGregor, who should have drawn a hold in the play above. Also on a day when TCU was seeming to convert every short situation, McGregor had the rare *PLAY* to get a guy down short of the sticks.
#17 DE on the bottom.
He also prevented an eight-yard run from becoming seventy-eight almost had a sack on the Duggan is Magic touchdown, forced an early throw on the fade that Johnson had dominated early, and came very close to tipping away this 3rd down conversion.
Put that with the Ohio State plays and McGregor had the kind of back end of 2022 that presages the 2023 breakout we're being sold this spring.
Anyone else we should look forward to next year?
I was already fully on board with the Kris Jenkins talk—he's put great numbers all last season. The difference in this game was he stole the show, as in this moment when the announcers were talking about Duggan making the biggest plays in the brightest moments just as Jenkins is sniffing out a QB draw on the biggest 1st down of the season.
A big reason that Minter looked so smart with his blitzes was Jenkins taking advantage of being singled up.
#94 the DT on the bottom hash
Live this looked like they were setting up a screen versus a CB blitz. What really happened is Jenkins crossed the center then violently removed the guy's arms. Duggan did some magical things this year, but even he can do little more than chuck it away when a raging Kris Jenkins is coming at him chased by a center who's all like "Aahhhh no arms! I have no arms!"
Poor guy didn't even get a chance to hold. The good news for our armless center is he's in good company, like the right guard next to him who got turned into a power sled. Mazi Smith beat the other guard.
Armless center has to turn around and be like "That's why you always double-team."
Unfortunately the double-teams mostly worked against Mazi Smith. Not so much in the early going—you'll note Smith still graded out in the positive. But when TCU converted improbable 3rd downs into a redzone visits they were usually able to convert those into touchdowns by keeping Smith on the field and grounding him into a nub.
Sometimes as these drives dragged on it looked like Mazi was so gassed he stopped moving.
#58 DT on the top
TCU's tempo and the numerous long chase plays in this game combined to run defenders ragged, then locked them on the field. Between that and being the heaviest dude on the slipperiest playing surface this side of Allentown, Smith's last game for Michigan was his worst of the season.
Mazi's worst game of the season also included as many stonewalled doubles as not, some vintage guard-shucking, and a strip-fumble-recovery at the end of the 3rd quarter to set up Michigan's comeback. It was just bad for him, not bad. Maybe something to watch out for with Grant, though the grass in Glendale
Was the surface responsible for all the missed tackles?
It may have? I graded those without considering it. Sonny Dykes is a #SpeedinSpace maven who tries to set up opportunities for his athletes to shake yours, so I wasn't expecting this to look great. Like the game itself, the problem wasn't the frequency of the not-greats, but the amplitude. I had some small hope that DJ Turner was coming back this year because his tackling was so bad in this game. I don't need to replay the 76-yarder on 3rd & 7—your head is taking care of that right now—but it wasn't an isolated event.
#5 the CB on the bottom
When you're playing a lot of zone your cornerbacks are the last line of defense on the edge. You'd like Harrell, the OLB on that side, to not get manhandled by a tight end like that, but he's still enough in the D gap to get the receiver's attention and force a bounce to the unblocked cornerback: mission accomplished. Turner's angle is so bad he doesn't even touch the RB. Contrast with the way Will Johnson played edge.
#2 CB at the top
Paige also came in for a couple of whiffs.
#7 the safety on the bottom hash
…and Sainristil had a couple of instances where being small versus a tight end was the difference between 2nd & 8 or 2nd & 3.
Anyway the way this was spread around could have been a little surface-related, IE reactions to the surface. Some of them, like Colson's, were just plain whiffs.
What did Junior Colson do this week that made you want to pull your hair out and scream and then shake your two fistfuls of hair at Junior Colson and yell "You made me do this!"
I think true freshman mistakes are excusable but by the end of your sophomore year you shouldn't be doing this.
The previous drive TCU was running the same play back-to-back when they had success. This time Minter caught them running Belly right after an 8-yard gain on Belly that could have broken for a lot more. Michigan blitzes both "OLBs"—Sainristil on the top and Barrett on the bottom. The four DL take the four interior gaps. There is no gap for Colson. His job is the running back. Just the running back.
Instead he jumps into the gap that already has two defenders in it.
Jenkins has a right to be there; he squeezed his A gap shut and can help with another. Harrell is getting washed out by the LT on his back, but that's his gap. Colson…Colson I don't know what you're doing here. My charitable guess is he forgot/didn't get the call and was playing support on Jenkins.
I've heard coaches say this was on the playcall. I've heard others blaming Harrell, and still other thinking Barrett was supposed to get the RB (he's getting optioned!). I would like it to be anything but the guy we want to be a star at linebacker. If you or anyone you know can exonerate Junior Colson or lead to the capture of the one truly responsible, please dial 1-888-NOT-ON25. My biases would appreciate it greatly.
What did Junior Colson do this game that made you go "WOOOOOOOOO THAT WAS AWESOME!!!"?
He created this turnover out of what should have been an amazing NFL route by a *SLOT RECEIVER*:
When we talk about how NFL this game was, here's a great example. You are most likely looking at an option route where the slot receiver has the choice to sit down on the snag or convert to a zip route. College-wise, this creates a nice triangle look for the QB with the outside sit route the one that opened up. But I think the slot had his option already picked out, and planned to sell the sit against Colson then come inside on him: receiver vs linebacker for all the yards in the middle. He gets exactly what he wanted. And then Colson gets on top of the route anyways, and tips the ball where the safety over this can intercept. Ninja!
Anybody else just providing more evidence of what we already know about them?
We got one more good day of linebackin' in the books from Michael Barrett , including this sniffed out screen.
And here's another vintage Mike Barrett Blitzer Extraordinaire moment for the preview.
Overall this was his kind of game. Barrett has learned his new position well, but he'll always be built like a Viper. TCU's four-wide approach plays into Barrett's strengths by turning the WLB into a hybrid. This play was blown up when Kris Jenkins knocked the center's arms off, but you should watch Barrett in zone coverage as he smoothly transitions between buzzing the TE, then taking away the outside receiver's snag route, then positioning himself to take out the running back swing pass.
#23 OLB on the bottom
When we talk about how Amorion Walker might not start the year as a good player but should be by the time we need him to be, keep Barrett's progression over 2022 in mind. One barely remembers the lost puppy in a position battle with Kalel Mullings. Yes, this was a thing at some point.
Also when we talk about Amorion Walker I'm guessing it will be in the vicinity of one boringly awesome Will Johnson.
CB #2 on the top.
Just throw at the NFL guy, Duggan. The true freshman is too much for you.
Finally, the safeties had good games again, minus Paige falling down on the most likely to be a turf problem of the missed tackle-a-thon. Moore's only minus was misjudging a ball he thought was tipped, and he balanced that by picking off the ball Colson set up for him, and his usual YAC-preventing stickiness.
#19 safety on bottom.
Also I want to steal what the right tackle does on this play. As mentioned several times above, the play to beat a zone read is a scrape exchange, where the end the QB thinks he's going to read crashes inside on the RB and another player swings around behind him. There are many tricks for beating that but having the RT (#74 above) come off a slant like that is genius. The DT—Jenkins in this case—is using all of his energy to get into the backfield, so if you let him go there will be a moment of gathering before he can make good on being unblocked in the backfield. Time it right with a kickout of the exchange man and you're free to the safety. In this case the safety was hanging out at 8 yards because a first down was game over, but still: neat trick.
Heroes?
Kris Jenkins, Will Johnson, Michael Barrett, and surprisingly Jesse Minter.
Maybe not so heroic?
Upshaw and Okie, Quinten Johnson, Turner's tackling.
What does it mean for 2023?
Kris Jenkins Wookie Mode engaged. Save some NIL money for arm replacements, Big Ten linemen. The chop is real.
It is encouraging that Jaylen Harrell had a good spring game. Michigan's most technically sound DE looked like he finally knew where to put his feet, and wasn't running after the wrong guy on options, which was a big improvement on his 2022.
Braiden McGregor: real? Saw some things to back up the offseason talk.
Moore and Paige are the Pax Safetifica. They're just juniors (Paige got a redshirt in 2021) and already they feel like a pair of faster Brad Hawkinsii. Notable the one big bust in the secondary happened when not one of these guys was at safety. Also notable that it was a complex coverage.
Jesse Minter was right to blitz. He even had backup plans in case they didn't get home. TCU's zone read based running game was best attacked on the edge, Michigan's pass rush wasn't going to get to Duggan on their own, and for the most part the blitzes did their jobs. Big plays in return needed missed tackles, downfield blocking, ludicrous throws, etc. to get far beyond the line of scrimmage. Also earned a solid RPS win against Sony Dykes. Way to earn that raise!
anyone else read "gfycat" as "gofuckyourselfcat"?
incidentally gfy is a thought i had internally as i relived this game through the drive charts
For this one UFR, it should probably stand for "GoddamnFuckingYards[After]Catch".
At least that's what I was screaming at points during the game.
Thank you for subjecting yourself to this for us. But I can't bear to do anything but skim the chart.
"TCU had two sustained drives, one which should have been a three-and-out if TCU wasn't farting the Brandenburg Concertos."
This is why I come to MGoBlog.
Nope. Not doing it .Though, I appreciate the work for those who wish to indulge
Yeah, it's funny, I don't remember ever feeling so traumatized after a game. And the PTSD continues to this day. Part of me wants to look and scrutinize and see how badly we f'd up and to figure out whose fault it was and assign blame but then another part of me knows how upsetting it will be and that there won't be anything that I will be able to do to change the outcome or make myself feel better. Other than to try and forget it ever happened and enjoy the promise of the 2023 season and the great recruiting start for 2024.
I remember listening to Al Borges saying pregame that Michigan was going to run what Michigan always runs. That they will run so many of this type of run play and so many of that type of run play, that they won't digress from what got them there. And it looked like they followed that script to the letter. It seemed that TCU knew exactly what we were going to run on offense and they had a great plan to stop it. And that we were so arrogant that we just kept running the same scripted, predictable BS plays until the game was so far out of reach that we were forced to open it up.
I appreciate Seth doing the work and someday I'm sure I'll check it out. But for me, 3 months hasn't been long enough. The emotional scars are still pretty raw. I couldn't believe my eyes. I couldn't believe that our preparation for that game was that poor and that we would have been outcoached that badly.
I sure hope we learned from that game. Because that was brutal.
Did we watch the same game? Michigan made a couple stupid mistakes that buried them, but the offense was otherwise very effective.
The offense was very effective once they threw caution to the wind and embraced a shootout. But we had 6 points at halftime and were trying to grind it out with a speed in space running back.
Exactly. And to Klompton's point, what was so frustrating was that our offense could have been very effective all game, not just in the second half when we were 3 scores down.
Just imagine JJ's development if we had gotten him more game-action throwing reps earlier in the year. What if instead of waiting until the 3rd or 4th quarter we opened it up in the 2nd. Or better yet, what if we defied all expectations and opened it up in the 1st quarter, opening drive?
The two things a defense wants you to be is predictable and 1-dimensional, so they can stack their defenders against your attack. It seemed our offense did that for them in the first half by design.
The Edwards run on the first play of the game was a net negative, I believe. Had he scored it obviously would have been a positive, but he didn't and it convinced the coaches that they could play a particular kind of game despite evidence consistently stacking up afterward that they couldn't. It was not really until the game was 21-3 that they stopped setting first down on fire.
Just imagine JJ's development if we had gotten him more game-action throwing reps earlier in the year. What if instead of waiting until the 3rd or 4th quarter we opened it up in the 2nd. Or better yet, what if we defied all expectations and opened it up in the 1st quarter, opening drive?
For me in this game, it was the refusal to run him AT ALL until so late in the game that it almost didn't matter. They played him like they were saving him for Georgia the first 65% of the game when we ALL knew (and were screaming on Twitter and in the game thread) that there were QB runs to be had. Once they started doing it, the offense cracked wide open.
(All of this also said with the large caveat that the refs/replay official boned us out of a TD pass.)
JJ’s “B1G smashfest” comment before the game was disappointing. Being older, I’ve learned over the years (oftentimes at my own expense), that such comments are best left in your head. Confidence vs arrogance is a fine line to walk, and I hope they’ve learned that lesson for this season. Just let your actions speak for you.
This was trash-talking. If college students won't do it, then who would? Let it go.
Kordell Stewart had me more traumatized because it was instant death.
This was a sad song.
And it looked like they followed that script to the letter. It seemed that TCU knew exactly what we were going to run on offense and they had a great plan to stop it. And that we were so arrogant that we just kept running the same scripted, predictable BS plays until the game was so far out of reach that we were forced to open it up.
*sigh of familiarity* Now that's the Michigan I know. Welcome back to the good ol' days everyone!
That they will run so many of this type of run play and so many of that type of run play, that they won't digress from what got them there. And it looked like they followed that script to the letter. It seemed that TCU knew exactly what we were going to run on offense and they had a great plan to stop it. And that we were so arrogant that we just kept running the same scripted, predictable BS plays until the game was so far out of reach that we were forced to open it up.
You’ve summarized Michigan’s pathetic record in bowl games since January 1, 1970, which is why my default prediction for any bowl game against a team with a pulse is a loss. The blithe arrogance and stubbornness of the program in its approach to bowl games against quality opposition is part of the Michigan DNA.
Thanks for putting this out, Seth. Your work is always super thorough, and the community appreciates what you do for us fans. That day wasn't fun to experience once, so I can't imagine taking the time to dissect it frame by frame for an article.
Came here to say the same thing others have already. I have forgotten the game already and chose not to relive it via UFR. Good riddance TCU.
best. timing. ever.
man, oh MAN. am i really waiting five-ish months? i am, sadly.
interesting to read the comments since i started reading this, and i gotta say - this didn't hit me the way the don brown ohio state fiascoes did. the defense was, structurally, pretty good, and made some outstanding plays. unfortunately, they also just completely farted some stuff, and the farts weren't no brandenburg concertos. we were closer than i remembered.
this year has the potential to be an all-time defense. i really believe that.
My biggest question was what did Georgia do so well that the Michigan D didn't?
Then again. Michigan stopped OSU better than Georgia did. So. Match ups?
georgia has better athletes, virtually across the board. makes a huge difference. also they didnt turn the ball over and dominated 1st half like 35-7 or whatever it was.
michigan has put together a couple great years - but theyre not georgia
Yeah, I think this game would have gone a completely different way if Michigan hadn't dug themselves a huge hole early. That really shifted things a bit.
UM and GA in many ways run similar offense so I imagine the GA coaches watching the film saying "ok don't do all the first half UM things" while "let's do all the second half things" and they could do that from the first minute on.
Vs our stubborn nature in 1H.
There is also an emotional bent to this. TCU winning was like a super bowl. No one expected them there let alone a win. Despite the stakes really hard to get up for the next game to the same level emotionally after something so draining.
As for OSU they are much more dangerous on a fast track indoor no weather elements. And obviously not the same emotion vs the rivalry.
You mean OSU has started playing tight in The Game? That's possible if they are worried about keeping their "record" over the past 20 years intact, instead of just playing the game.
I like the games Michigan played in the past two years, very free. Not careless, but rather a looseness about their approach.
"not Georgia"...yet.
And the fact that Georgia's offense kept scoring...TCU played very different with the lead than down 2+ scores...they had access to their whole playbook all game against UM because they had the lead the entire game.
Also, we betrayed our defensive philosophy that we used to stop Ohio State's offense. The MacDonald-Minter defense dares Ohio State or TCU to score on a 15-play 8 minute slog of a wet fart offensive series with high chances to stop them for field goals. Blitz are not rare, but clever and avoid sending more than 4 at almost all times. Max coverage in all directions in the secondary. And work to contain and slow up the target by giving up yards than gambling with a risky ankle tackle (like Cam Brown).
Against TCU, it just felt like we paniced and tried to get too aggressive/clever because their offense was just hitting every thing perfectly. Nobody can be perfect for 4 full quarters, but if they are, they earned those points and all you can do is tip your cap.
Georgia was better than Michigan, it's really that simple. However, I don't think there is any question that Michigan was looking past TCU and did not take them particularly seriously. And getting down early forced Michigan to take high-leverage risks on defense that they typically do not have to take.
Georgia shut down TCU's running game. As Seth mentioned in the dline chart, they didn't hold up well in the running game. UM gave up 263 yrs on 41 attempts, Dugan had 15 carries for 57 yds. Against Georgia, TCU had 36 yds on 28 attempts, Dugan had 10 carries for -38 yrs.
Some of that was due to Georgia getting out to an early lead and TCU having to play catch up, but Michigan's inability to contain TCU's running game was a big factor.
Be better at basically every level with superior athletes? Jalen Carter is just a much better version of Mazi Smith, Kelee Ringo is a bigger and stronger DJ Turner who isn't missing those tackles, their defensive ends actually generate pressure without a rush, their offense didn't shit itself to start the game. Those are just a few of the reasons.
OSU is one of the two teams in the country that had the athletes to challenge Georgia. Michigan soundly beat OSU last year, that doesn't really negate the fact that OSU had a higher ceiling, and specifically a much higher ceiling on offense than Michigan. Losing to TCU absolutely sucked but our offense wasn't putting up more than 14-17 points against that Georgia team, they would have been a terrible matchup for us. Kirby's Georgia is just the better version of Michigan right now, its really hard to upset a team that does the same things you do just better.
I attended this horror show. Feel no need to re-live it. Not now. Not ever. Actually been scouring ChatGPT to see if it's possible to wipe 4 hours from one's memory banks. Because I would.
I was there too. Still haven't watched the TV version. This article was the first I've seen any of the highlights since that day.
It just felt like one of those days where the opponent won the lottery on every possible leverage play, and Michigan was simply along for the ride
Wait til GPT5 debuts this fall. Life will never be the same.
Thanks for taking this pain Seth. We learn because of you. While it wasn't good for my psyche to go through these plays, I can rest easy that the fundamentals are in good shape.
Bring on 2023!
Same. I'm glad the main takeaway from this exercise wasn't, "Minter what in the hell are you doing aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh?!?!?!?!"
My hope is that this game taught some much needed lessons on how to prepare and execute against mobile QBs. They’ve seen a resurgence in the NFL and college, and if we have aspirations of a national championship next year chances are we end our year with 3-4 games in a row with this kind of threat (Maryland, yes OSU, 2 potential playoff games). I’m heartened by Seth’s detective work that seems to suggest that UM will roll out something closer to a traditional 4-3 with a hybrid spacebacker this season.
With Stroud and Young leaving, I think we are among the two or three favorites to win the national title.
We certainly should be, especially given our easy schedule and stacked roster. But part of my point is that we ran into a tactical mismatch once we reached the national stage last year, and one that won’t be going away anytime soon. Setting aside Georgia for a second, Alabama, FSU, LSU, Utah, USC, Oklahoma (and a few others) all have some degree of QB run threat. I would bet anyone one dollar that Ohio State’s next QB will not be as run averse as Stroud. Luckily we don’t have as much of a MANBALL schedule in the Big Ten this year, so I hope that there is ample time to prepare for the kinds of offenses we’d see in the playoffs.
The defense does get to practice against McCarthy, whose pretty mobile himself. But our whole philosophy/tactic for combating a mobile quarterback needs to change in a hurry. A killer pair of defensive ends does the trick (looking at you MacGregor and Moore and Harrel and Stewart)
Ah "learning to play vs mobile QBs" - a Michigan tradition since McNabb rolled into the Big House in 98.
Back before McNabb, I still have nightmares of Ricky Foggie ending our unbeaten season in 1986.
Michigan has had problems with mobile QBs since the 1970s.
I believe everyone has trouble with mobile quarterbacks which explains why they have their own label. In certain cases, mobile quarterbacks that aren't terrific at reading defenses or making certain passes can be neutralized.
The vast uptick in recruiting has happened with Elston but this game the DL did poorly.
I like the Streamable clips much better, click anywhere to play, don't have t convert to hd every time, dont have to unmute every time. Only downside is the lack of ability to slow it down to half or quarter time.
Aand we've got our first copyright troll on Streamable. I substituted the Matthew Loves Ball clip for now. They don't tell you what happened, who made the claim, or allow you to fight it apparently. At least it's just one video...for now.
Two clips have come down now. Anyone who is able, please contact streamable and tell them to cut off the copyright trolls.
This makes me feel wonderful about the season ahead.
Just gotta shake your head about what could/should definitely have been.
But I can't wait to stifle everyone on D and smoke them all on O. Let's enjoy this season; I think it's going to be one for the ages.
Like a trip to the dentist: It's good for you and you get a treat at the end, but it's still a trip to the dentist.
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