Highest ceiling CFB Team in 2022 (when playing their best game)
One of the great (and maddening) aspects of College Football is that any team can beat any other team if one team shows up and the other one doesn't. We've unfortunately been on the wrong side of that, but there have been some victories where the margin swung our way that could have been closer, or ended up differently.
I've watched a decent chunk of this season, and I will rank what I feel are the top teams, when those teams are at peak performance -
1) Michigan
2) Ohio State (they pulled an Ohio State though and couldn't give their kicker a few more yards)
3/4/5) Georgia (beat Tennessee), Tennesee (elite offense, beat Bama), Alabama (Bryce Young when at his best is pretty damn dangerous)
Every one of those top #1-5 teams beats TCU 80+% of the time.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
I'm a longtime Wolverine fan, but even optimistically I can't see Michigan ahead of Georgia in that list.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
JJ is better than Bennett. Georgia has better WRs. Michigan has a better run game.
Our defense is the wild card.
There were the three phases of failure in the game against TCU - (1) 2x JJ pick six 2) Defense giving up 37 points even if subtracting the 2x pick sixes 3) The two insane play calls at the 1 and 2 yard line).
The maddening part is that we could have survived two failures, but not all three.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
Love JJ, but he is not better than Bennett at this point.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
Of that list, I'd probably go:
Georgia / Ohio State -- tied for highest ceiling, particularly if you assume a full, uninjured roster.
Michigan might well come in next, particularly if we assume a full, uninjured roster. With the injuries in place, it's a bit harder to see them overcoming Georgia. Anything is possible, but overall I think Georgia has the better team.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Me either Alabama prolly has the highest ceiling but for whatever reason never hit it.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
This. If the premise of the question is a hypothetical wherein each team plays up to its potential, then it stands to reason that the team with the most raw talent has the highest ceiling.
Now, based on styles and personnel and how they relate to match-ups ('styles make fights', and whatnot) I can see an argument for putting Michigan ahead of Ohio State, but I can't make a straight faced argument for putting Michigan in front of the Dawgs.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
People are making an absurd over reaction to Georgias close game against Ohio state
had Michigan pulled that tcu comeback out of their ass, Georgia would have been a 7-10 point favorite over Michigan
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Michigan has opened up the pass since Corum went down and it makes us much more dangerous. Everyone loves running the ball with Corum (and Edwards) because they are both special talents, but you can't impose your will on everyone all of the time. You have to be able to be able to counter punch. Our game against OSU where they stacked the box and CJ had those huge receptions/runs is a prime example of why you need both running and passing.
I'd also like to say that we need a better pass rush, but it could be that I'm just comparing to last year with Hutch/Ojabo and that might not be realistic.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Michigan may have opened up the pass game, but McCarthy still needs to improve his accuracy. He's not wildly overthrowing receivers like earlier in the season, but number of his throws were behind the receivers, and he isn't seeing as well as top QBs, or even attempting many of the more difficult throws that Stroud, Duggan, and even Benn were making and often completing.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
I remember one of his "inaccurate" throws that Blacledge commented on. They should the replay, and it looked like if he had put the ball where Blacledge said he should have, it would have been very close, if not right at, a defender.
Not saying this is always the case, but some throws that appear to be "off" might actually be good. We also don't know how good the receivers are at running routes.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
I think I found something with high ceilings (and a high price) that you might like, OP. Take a look and let us know what you think.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
This is an absurd take. We are the third place team until we prove otherwise. You’ve taken the provably 3rd and 4th place teams and made them 1 & 2. Maybe with Corum we’re 1A. But TCU is now like 6-1 against ranked teams. And OSU had a great game but they happen to match up really well with UGA’s flaw which is pass D. They still lost. OSU’s second half of the season is not that of the #2 team in the country.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
Are we assuming no injuries and good coaching prep before games? If so, from what I saw saw, I'd put Michigan at the top and UGA #2. I've watched UGA a couple of times, and Michigan at full strength beats them in the Championship Game.
What gives me pause about that, though, is Michigan's offensive coaching. The pass game isn't where it needs to be (despite 343 yds - it was the 'all bomb all the time' attack to a WR that was just running past coverage) to win a championship. Also, the tendency to remain overly conservative is real - it's a Harbaugh trait learned from Bo.
There are plenty of better offenses - USC with an uninjured Caleb Williams, UTenn with an uninjured Hendon Hooker, etc... But few teams with a better balance of capable offense and good defense.
Forget the game we just saw, that was an aberration of bad bowl prep underestimating an opponent.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
Your take mirrors my own. I think coaching would have been the biggest hindrance to beating Georgia, not talent.
But if the coaching and preparation are at A+ level, like they were against OSU, we can beat Georgia.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
“that was an aberration of bad bowl prep underestimating an opponent”
It’s hardly an aberration when the program has been doing that repeatedly over the past half-century. No other program has as many bowl game losses as Michigan does.
January 2nd, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
If we can polish our passing game heading into next season, the sky’s the limit. Sucks McCarthy threw a couple of picks, but that was more of a qb doing confident things that he’ll learn from. As far as this year goes, doesn’t really matter if we’re 3 or 4. Next season we return the core of what got us to the CFP. Factor in some nice portal grabs and watch out. RB is a question mark but nothing that can’t be fixed. Yes we beat ourselves but TCU is a pushover for no team and I think Georgias gonna learn that. Especially if they come in overlooking them, to a certain extent the way we did. We could argue that we’d win that game 3 out of 5 times, but that would make us OSU and take away from what they accomplished.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
Yes, I tip my hat to TCU - they played a perfect game and wanted it more. They took the script we used against OSU and turned it on us.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
I hate the "wanted it more" buzz line. No they didn't.
Besides, it only means more in the SEC. Get with the program here.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Did they really play a perfect game? They turned it over 3 times, Duggan didn't play that great, and gave up tons of big plays. All in all, TCU made a good amount of mistakes too but they scored TD's instead of kicking field goals and took advantage of their red zone opportunities.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
TCU really didn't play a great game, but they gave up zero sacks and were gifted three scores (two pick-sixes and the overturned Wilson catch/Mullings fumble sequence.)
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
Absolutely tip the hat to TCU - they played their game and beat us. Might have needed a couple of horrible overturns, but they won the game with good play on the field. Did they 'want it more'? I say no - that feels like a slight on our guys (unintentional though it may be). The fight JJ and company put up to come back from 18 down was incredible. Even the defense fought hard against a really good offense! I'm extremely pleased with the way Michigan fought for this game. I only wish the coaches had prepared a better game plan going in...
Can TCU beat Georgia? Yeah, I think they can. But I think they'll need some of the luck they spent against Michigan to do it. How much do they have left in the tank? I can't see UGA making the same types of program defining idiotic decisions that Michigan made - Philly Special (JFC! - still pisses me off), zero blitzes, and turning off significant aspects of your offense (QB runs, pass threat RB).
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
While he is probably more physically gifted than each of the other three playoff QBs, are things that I would hope that McCarthy learns from each of them. Duggan and Bennett in terms of determination and leadership, and Stroud in terms of reading defenses quickly and knowing exactly where to go with the ball and then executing the throws.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
JJ is not nearly as accurate as Stroud. That first pick-6 was a terrible throw behind Bell, an easier catch for the DB than the WR. Stroud doesn't make throws like that. The counterweight with JJ is his legs, but if you're not going to use them.........
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Honestly, M played probably its worst game imaginable and still almost won. And then seeing how Ohio State handled Georgia for most of that game, I can't help but think that this was Michigan's national championship to lose. I agree with most of the board who thinks that M beats TCU 8 out of 10 times. But you only play once...and Michigan managed to kick itself in the ass.
Also - it's really disappointing because it fits a trend under Harbaugh in which Michigan puts in a horrible, hair-on-fire performance in a huge and/or must-win game (2016, 2018, 2019 Ohio State, a few Michigan State games, 2016 Iowa,2019 Penn State, Orange Bowl vs FSU). In all of those, they played uncharacteristically bad games. And that's disappointing and makes you wonder how that could happen over and over again..
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
I mentioned this in another post, but I wonder if Georgia was possibly overconfident based on a combination of the score of this year's Michigan-OSU game and last year's semifinal. Obviously a lot of players have departed from both teams, but it wasn't hard to see a difference in overall talent.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
the way the TCU's defenders were breaking on the ball, it seemed like the perfect set up for a pump fake/ double move for Edwards.... I kept thinking...
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Michigan had a championship caliber team this year clearly capable of beating anybody. Their performance against OSU on the road (in comparison to Georgia-OSU) proves it. And they are better than TCU. Unfortunately, too many terrible mistakes and officiating gaffes cost them a title this year. It was a great year but it could have been better.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
I think TCU belongs on the list. They beat us because they were able to keep us from playing our best game.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I don't think that Michigan is actually the best team in the country. A weak Big Ten made us look better than we are. We would not match up well with Georgia. OSU was able to put pressure on them in ways that we cannot. There is no transitive property.
But we will never know.
However, we will still finish "on the podium" in the Top 3 in the country, no matter what happens next Monday. For the second year in a row.
Even if we are not the best team in the country, that's pretty spectacular.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
This sounds a lot like Illinois awarding themselves a co-champion banner. I'll pass.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
Its a game of matchups. OSU matches much better against UGA than against UM. UGA's weakness is its secondary. OSU went after Keele Ringo all day and Marv was abusing him, hence UGA decision to injure him (with no consequence cuz ESPN and SEC). UGA run defense is its strength and running against Jalen Carter was tough.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
OSU with a healthy JSN and Harrison would be brutal to defend.
January 2nd, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
Just another reminder of how bad we fucked this opportunity up. Ugh.
January 2nd, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
A few more yards would not have helped on that kick, it was ugly.
January 2nd, 2023 at 7:18 PM ^
1. Georgia
2. Michigan/Ohio State/Tennessee
5. Alabama